NOC Working Title Mafia (Game Thread) [Mafia Wins]

[HydrogenHydreigon]

this is an angleshoot, but catfries has not posted for 2 days and hasn't been subbed out, so maybe they've been active in scumchat?

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

hey guys, a 2-1-1 easily lets mafia take control of the vote and we can't let that happen

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

hi five users watching thread, if you're a player come interact with me

 

[ElectricityCat]

wow is this thread dead

You des and me are the only one who are talking everyday

 

[ElectricityCat]

this is an angleshoot, but catfries has not posted for 2 days and hasn't been subbed out, so maybe they've been active in scumchat?

Thats not that crazy theory, I wanted catfries to just talk to me. He usually comes near to deadline to vote.

 

[ElectricityCat]

hi five users watching thread, if you're a player come interact with me

When are you leaving today? To see if I can get some time to discuss before you leave

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

When are you leaving today? To see if I can get some time to discuss before you leave

i fell asleep oops-
im back but i will be dipping again in an hr

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

honestly
i will probably be staying on redless

hey Catfries! i see you watching the thread do you have anything to say?

 

[Catfries]

I want to talk about a few endgames that can happen:

1. We lynch village today.
1a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 1/2/1 split.
1b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/2/1 split, and mafia know the wolf.
1c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
1d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split, and mafia knows the wolf.

2. We lynch mafia today.
2a. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 2/1/1 split.
2b. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills town: we enter tomorrow with a 3/1/1 split.
2c. Mafia nightkills town, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 3/0/1 split.
2d. Mafia nightkills wolf, wolf nightkills mafia: we enter tomorrow with a 4/0/1 split.

3. We lynch wolf today. We enter tomorrow with a 3/2/0 split.

If town knew the identity of the wolf, we'd be fools to vote for anyone else. Voting elsewhere, even if we hit mafia, is likely to lead to scenario 2a, which requires the village to nolynch and then for both scumteams to hit one another. Winning as village without hitting the wolf today requires a lot of crossfire between the two scumteams, as well as several correct lynches in a row.

On the other hand, if town knew the identity of the werewolf and then voted that person out, we'd be left with the 3/2/0 split. Even if we did vote mafia out the following day, that would put us down to a 2 v 1, which the mafia have a 66% chance of winning.

What I'm trying to say is, the main threat to a mafia victory here is the wolf. Mafia should strongly consider open claiming in order to get the wolf lynched. If village know who the wolf is, village always votes wolf instead of mafia. And as mafia, your odds of winning are better if town lynches wolf and then lynches mafia than if town lynches town or mafia today.

this is incorrect bc it fails to account for the vote negator. we lose if we lynch wolf today and backup JK doesnt prevent a kill or a negate the vote negator

 

[Catfries]

this is assuming there is a backup JK alive

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

oh good youre here
please give your reads you have been absent for two days straight

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

i can still see you lurkin buddy
if youre catching up do give some indication you are doing so

 

[Catfries]

i can still see you lurkin buddy
if youre catching up do give some indication you are doing so

I kinda wanna find the people who are currently tunnelvisioning on wolf bc i think they are mafia and im looking at joey's interactions rn

 

[Catfries]

i would hard sus redless only reason i'm not is cuz of lechen's d3 track (ofc idling is possible)

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

honestly i feel like
scum will turbo a town bc the only town that will exist at dl is probably like ecat

 

[des121]

So are we voting out redless or nah?

 

[ElectricityCat]

The GMT thing for this game is rude

 

[Catfries]

##vote Redless
I think leaving out the thing abt vote negator was on purpose and wolf is also immune to vote negator

 

[Catfries]

So are we voting out redless or nah?

up 2 you i personally think its a good idea. the worst thing to do rn is to vote wolf (or town ig but thats a given)

 

[ElectricityCat]

So are we voting out redless or nah?

Redless said nothing here and I'm honestly very confused about who is the wolf and who is the scum here

 

[ElectricityCat]

Saber voting for des is also very cuestionable on his part

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

Redless said nothing here and I'm honestly very confused about who is the wolf and who is the scum here

this

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

at this point what are even the alter wagons to redless

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

WEREWOLF AIM FOR MAFIA AGAIN TY
JAILKEEPER ON ME

 

[HydrogenHydreigon]

my take is that at this point we should just go all in on redless, the existence of vote negator means we want 3-4 votes on top wagon in case mafia gets the chance to yeet town at eod
i get the sentiment redless might be town from the no pushback but thats kinda the pushback hes been getting all game lol at some point mafia can also start repeating that argument
anyways gn and gl town