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Tournament ZUCL I - Commencement Thread

zucl i bingo, i usually make these before auction but this tour i forgot / didn't have time. as per usual these are just for fun so don't take them too seriously. i believe i'm on a 3(?) bingos streak so let's keep it going

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Wrote these last night and didn't press enter, I did proofread so I guess you can sue me or smth if they don't make sense:

Given the choice between Commencement PRs and sleep, I think we know that it wasn't really a choice at all. I'm loosely going at this based on 'what tiers does the team get Ws against if the opponent is all 3-3 players.' It's not a perfect system since I don't think I rated a single GSC or RBY correctly. I'm skipping the Lana Del Catty because as much as I want to self-glaze, I also want to sleep eventually. I also assume that nobody builds unless I know they build, so if you build and I missed that, I'm sorry, and feel free to correct me in your own rankings.

seraphz, mz, hubriz, fogbound lake, bouff, sadisticnarwhal, clem, lyra, mada, akotelette, mirbro, envy

I think right off the bat, the strong points of the draft are sMZu, Fogbound Lake in ADV, and SaDiSTiCNarwhal in RBY. They're all people I expect to do well in the tiers they are playing in, with MZ doing very well in SM historically and Fogbound Lake being the ADV of the ZUPL-winning team, and SaD being an RBYer (I'm sorry idk rby well and im not pulling up any sheets). Hubriz stands out as a DPP player. Beyond that, I'm not too sure what to make of the rest of this draft. I'm assuming the GSC slot would be Lyra, and I have no idea how good Lyra is at GSC ZU. There are a couple of people who I'd assume get slotted into BW like Mirbro or seraphz. The SS slot has Ninja support, but who is the SS slot here, Envy?? The SV core is probably going to be Bouff + mada/envy/seraphz/whoever (in that order), and my only recent impression of any of them in SV ZU was in UMPL where seraphz used a lot of known teams. What I'm left with is whoever they throw into ORAS since I can't tell (Envy????), and Clem and Akotelette, two people who I have no read on as for what tiers or role they're playing.

I am going to blindly assume Bouff in SV1 goes positive, but I can't say the same for whoever is in the second SV slot based on what I assume the SV support looks like here. MZ, Fogbound, and SaD are also beating the hypothetical average guy. I think there's enough SS support for something to happen here, and although Hubriz is no BeatsBlack or Drud, I think he holds up in DPP enough. I'm not sure if Mirbro support + whoever is enough for the BW slot, so I added a tie option for this and DPP since I think they're equally good but not sMZu good. As for GSC and ORAS, I am unfamiliar with Lyra's GSC ZU game and they weren't Bouff-priced, and if I can't tell you who I think the ORAS is I can't predict it winning.

vs team of guys breaking even:
Ws - SM, ADV, RBY, SS, SV1
Tossup - DPP, BW
Ls - GSC, ORAS, SV2

Overall this team has strong upsides, but it left me with a couple of question marks. Their strong tiers are strong, but I think their tossups are less likely to result in Ws than some other team's tossups.

baoba, lpz, toot, ddjoe, pokeslice, danbear02, plznostep, bigfatmantis, baddy, phb11677

This team REALLY has ADV covered with Baoba + plznostep. SM Toto and SS Pokeslice are also good, but Toto is probably still convinced he's retired, and someone separated the Slice+BaitWiz SS core. LpZ is probably this team's BWZU (I would be shocked if not, unless they really need the SV). I'm only 2 teams in and this one also appears to not have an ORAS. How did this happen twice?? With my not-up-to-date RBY knowledge I'm not sure how reliable PHB is as an RBYer, but this is definitely the team's RBY. BigFatMantis is in GSC, and I at least recognize the name. For this team's SV, I'd expect Danbear02 to at least go even, akin in vibe to Trichotomy last ZUPL. Their other SV slot is Baddy, who I fully expect to go positive. DBD, DD Joe, and steppy should be able to support this SV core. And finally, there's DPP, which I nearly forgot because I'm not sure anyone on this squad has experience in the tier.

Well, ADV is automatically making this team start at 1-0, and if not I'd have questions. I would also have questions if LpZ didn't at least go positive. Independent of how much effort Toto puts in, he is still going positive in SM. Baddy is the 4th person that I'd expect to win in a given week, and if not, there is enough potential on this SV for the team to go 1-1 each week. From there, SS and GSC are going to be competitive, but compared to the other 4 slots, I think it's reasonable to call those tossups. I'm less confident in this team's RBY than SS/GSC, and I have no idea how DD Joe, Danbear02, and Plznostep are going to clutch up DPP and ORAS with whatever teams Toto steals while also maintaining SV2.

Ws - ADV, SM, BW, SV1
Tossup - SS, GSC, SV2
Ls - ORAS, RBY, DPP

The 4 tiers that I think are going to win consistently aren't even overshadowing the ones in the tossup category by that much. However, I think the support for ORAS and DPP is very dire, and while I expect one of steppy and DD Joe to pull in some Ws in those slots, but not even more reliably than this team's RBY.

beatsblack, drud, clean, obb10, zause, feen, notverycake, donbonejones, parpar, budgetplayer, soulking0, hex

I found the DPP. Drud and BeatsBlack are arguably the best 2 DPP in the pool, but I guess BeatsBlack has to play in the other 4 tiers they played when winning ZU Classic. I'm going to default BeatsBlack into BW, since it's that or GSC and I don't think BB plays GSC as a self-flex. There is also feen for GSC if needed. I think that Zause + Budget are going to do well as an SV core, and surely there are other options for SV like Feen and hex (and OBB) if one or both of them need to play a flex tier. I don't know clean's game but I guess clean is good at SSZU, and if not, zause and OBB are there too. NotVeryCake can cover RBY, Parpar is good in ADV, and despite being known as 1-5bb, OBB is good in SM, or whatever tier really. I can't find the ORAS though, unless it's OBB.

The chance of Drud + BeatsBlack DPP + BW going wrong is low, and even if BB needs to slot somewhere else, DonBoneJones can cover in BW. I really like how flexible the SV slot is, and so far it looks like one of the better SV pair. SS is covered, RBY and ADV are covered, and OBB covers one of SM and ORAS, depending on the week I guess. Their GSC isn't bad, but I think comparatively it's the worst non-OBB-possibly-playing-it slot.

Ws - DPP, SV1, SS, BW
Tossup - RBY, SV2, SM, ADV
Ls - GSC, ORAS

The toss-ups felt like less hard confirmed winning slots, especially compared to some other teams I've looked at. I'm a fan of this team's SV, and even if this team is missing one of ORAS and SM depending on OBB, I think that 'depending on OBB' is enough to look past that, especially if feen or zause or drud maybe can randomly slot into one of them.

tuthur dugza etern plague melbelle shadow079 beka magialice gondra zcarlett wooper

This team has a strong SV core, with Tuthur being able to support whoever between Etern, Shadow, Gondra, and himself start there. I'm not too familiar with RBY so I've never heard of Melbelle really, but I fully expect Tuthur + phil to be able to support RBY. I'm expecting to see a DPP plague, BW magialice, probably ADV Zcarlett, Beka and DugZa covering fairy gens, and Tuthur covering holes. Not sure who of them will be in which of SS/SM/ORAS (DugZa ORAS?), but they'll do good. Now, I don't know who this team's GSC is. Wooper and Zcarlett didn't sign up for it, and if it's not them in GSC is it plague?? No idea.

I wanted to put one SV into the tossup category, but if this isn't a double positive SV idk what is. The only thing I'm more certain of is this RBY going positive on paper (idk its rby ive heard luck happens a lot here). I'm also fairly certain that GSC is the one tier Tuthur won't slot himself into. I really shouldn't have put all of SS, SM, and ORAS into the tossups, but if my theory about Tuthur building in SV is right, and if he happens to be the designated SS, SM, and ORAS support, that's a lot of tiers for one person. I have no doubt that Tuthur can succeed if this much support is needed, but I do doubt that it'll consistently pay off in all 5 areas. DPP BW and ADV all look to have self-sufficient players to my knowledge.

Ws - SV1, SV2, RBY
Tossups - SS, SM, ORAS, DPP, BW, ADV
Ls - GSC

I think this team has a lot of skill and that I'm being harsh with the tossups, but I'm not sure how many people on it have time to build.

zpice, marisbonibell, sleid, afruitshopowner, michaelderbeste2, michael jordan, greybaum, baitwiz, tizio, tbasedgod, lafell, fvkumean

There are a lot of good oldgen ZU players on this squad, with a fruitshop owner in probably ORAS and Greybaum in probably SS. The team should also be able to hold its own in SM with MJ, with support from the other 2 names and BaitWiz. Maris Bonnibell is in GSC (probably in part due to that one 800 turn Lice game because if so same) and not RBY, which probably leaves Zpice in that tier, if not someone like MJ. Because of how stacked the fairy gens are on this squad, I assume that MichaelderBeste2 and sleid are the SV slots. I'm assuming that BaitWiz is going to be building for MB2, because if not then who is? sleid? TBG? After those slots though, I don't know what I'm looking at. I guess Greybaum and Tizio can play gens 5/4 based on sign-up, and I guess Zpice is the designated ADV?

I think out of ORAS, SM, SS, and both SV slots, 3/5 of them are guaranteed to win each week, if not more. I put down 4 below to be safe. I also think that the GSC pool is small enough to where I like Maris Bonibell's odds in it. If this team does play RBY, I think that there is enough support for a slot to do well. As for RBY, BW, DPP, and ADV, these tiers are gonna be Zpice and Zpice's chosen pawns each week, unless I'm underselling Graybaum a lot. I don't think Tizio, Lafell, and fvkumean carry any of those 4 tiers except maybe BW. I guess it'll work out if Zpice is ADV, Tizio is BW, MJ is RBY i guess, and Greybaum is DPP, but I'm playing mad libs with those tiers I'm not sure what this roster looks like.

Ws - SS, ORAS, SV1, SM, GSC
Tossups - SV2,
Ls - whichever of ADV, RBY, BW, DPP Zpice isn't playing

This team has a lot of variability, where I'm not super confident on anything tbh. I think it has good SS-ORAS support, a good SV, and Zpice 4 other tiers. If this team falls apart, there is not much roster depth outside of the SS-ORAS tiers (except in SV I guess)

havocknight skrimps the_chungler ruffles trichotomy sky melninja acluh1 jojen joaf twentytwan

Found out where everyone's ORAS slots went. No shot this team doesn't have the best ORAS record with HAVOCKNIGHT + Ruffles. They also have a good ADV with Melninja + Joaf. acluh1 is the biggest 'who' of the draft for me, but I guess they play RBY, and if they don't, THE_CHUNGLER can. The SV core looks like its Trichotomy + TwentyTwan (and maybe sky formerly avarice), which thank goodness TwentyTwan wasn't snubbed again. HAVOCKNIGHT could also SV while Ruffles wins in ORAS.

I think this is the hardest team to judge because all of Skrimps, THE_CHUNGLER, sky, and maybe Jojen exclusively slotting into opponent flex picks. I'm very confident in all 3-4 of them being good into opposing flex slots, since Skrimps covers SS-ADV, THE_CHUNGLER singed up for that + GSC/RBY, and they have another RBY in case someone flexes RBY/GSC. I think this is less of a 'what tier do i flex into them' team and more of a 'what tier do i flex into skrimps' team.

Ws - ORAS, ADV, SV1, whatever is flexed into them
Tossups - RBY, SV2
Ls - GSC

This squad really takes advantage of the tour's format. The only possible weak points are maybe GSC (and I've said that about everyone), and picking a third tier to flex since idk what it would be or who would claim it.

5gen 5dots django esteb4n hammer789 bigtony2014 aurist tack spbc princeofalltacos lb betathunder

The clear standouts are Esteb4n in SV, who is going X-2 in an absolute worst-case scenario and X-0/X-1 realistically, and the 5gen 5Dots core, who can play SM/ORAS and every tier, respectively. Between 5Dots and Tack, I think this team's BW looks good. They also have RBY and GSC in Hammer and Aurist. Beyond that, I'm assuming that Tony and Django are covering ADV/DPP, and SPBC and POAT for whatever tier. I think that the 'whatever tier' is probably SV2, since outside of 5dots, the only people I do see playing in SV (that didn't tier lock out) are SPBC, POAT, and LB, and I'm assuming the former two are going to play more oldgens, and that the latter doesn't build SVZU. If I'm not sure which of them is the SV2 slot, I can't be confident that it's going to do well.

With that, I'm not too confident in this squad's SS, since I don't know POAT's game. I think this team does fine in DPP-SM because they have the 5core and like 2 DPP people. Having a GSC is enough in my opinion, especially after how many teams appear to not have one or probably won't flex it voluntarily. Esteb4n is a free W. I shoved 4 tiers in the tossup category since I'm not sure what 5Dots is playing, but it's probably ORAS.


Ws - GSC, BW, SV1, SM
Tossups - ORAS, RBY, DPP, ADV
Ls - SV2, SS

I don't think anyone in this draft besides Esteb4n is top 1 in the pool, but everyone will go more positive than theoretical 3-3 person. 5dots plays 5 tiers. Good flex defense with 5dots and tony. I think it has good odds, ppl for every tier they find an SV2 I guess, and enough flexibility.

:delcatty: >>> :lumineon: :bastiodon: :audino: :rampardos: :brute bonnet: :weezing: :spiritomb:

i think the lumineons strength in flex makes it worth putting them first of the teams I ranked. the bastiodon roster was also pretty flexible. audinos third since it hinges on tuthur a lot in my eyes, rampardos 4th since i guess i put it here, bonnet 5th because i think it has some holes and zpice can only fill 1, weezings next, and tombs last because im not really confident in their support for each tier.
 
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