Pokemon rankings (Wobbuffet is #503)

[supermarth64]

Mewtwo can't use the Passho Berry because it's not weak to Water.

Anyway, Mewtwo wins against most Kyogres (I think) with 212 HP / 252 SpD / 44 Spe @ Sitrus Berry, Light Screen/Recover/Taunt/Toxic. The only ones that it loses against are offensive ones with CM and HPump if it plays wrong (Light Screen on CM, Taunt on HPump) as Surf with Timid doesn't let Kyogre outpower Light Screen + Recover (Surf + Modest might but then Mewtwo can invest more in HP).

 

[lati0s]

(Surf + Modest might but then Mewtwo can invest more in HP).

The point of domination is that there is a set that beats all possible sets so you cannot run more HP for modest and more speed for timid.

There is a possibility that that set will lose to modest specs waterspout, with pressure you only have to take 4 hits but each one does 259 - 306 if you recover three times and have sitrus berry he will have to deal 1116 to KO. Does anyone know a non-calculation intensive way to calculate this probability?

 

[Banedon]

My bad, I thought Passho Berry cut the damage of all water attacks by 1/2. That makes things more difficult. Thinking aloud:

So Mewtwo vs. Kyogre - Mewtwo needs 44 speed to guarantee it beats Timid Kyogre. One thing for almost-certain is that Kyogre will attack from the special side, and Mewtwo has Amnesia to defend against that. So it can try to run an Amnesia-based set backed by Pressure to outstall Kyogre. Alternatively it can try to simply pound Kyogre to death with its 154 base SpA, superior speed and super-effective attacks. It can also try removing the rain with Sunny Day, although I don't know how effective that is.

Here's a simple set that might be able to beat all Kyogre sets -

Mewtwo @ Focus Sash
252 SpA, 44 Spe, rest into SpD
Modest (+SpA)
Thunder
Grass Knot
Calm Mind
Recover

Kyogre can only hold one resist berry, so simply choose the attack that he doesn't resist. Offensive Kyogre is easily 2HKOed while Mewtwo lives a hit with Sash. Defensive Kyogre (252/252+) is not 2HKOed, but uninvested Hydro Pump in the rain does 68% - 80.2% to Mewtwo. Against this kind of Kyogre Mewtwo can Calm Mind twice - it is faster - making Hydro Pump fail to 2HKO, then Recover to outstall.

What can Kyogre try to beat this? It could try Thunder instead of Hydro Pump, hoping for a paralysis. If Mewtwo is paralyzed then Kyogre wins. It could also try Thunder Wave, but it won't have broken the Sash then and would have to hope for full paralysis. It can Calm Mind, but Mewtwo can Calm Mind just as fast as Kyogre. Another try is with Icy Wind, with some kind of offensive Kyogre + Icy Wind + Hydro Pump. However, after a turn 1 Calm Mind, Mewtwo still survives Icy Wind + Hydro Pump + Hydro Pump, and can Recover.

Kyogre might have a set that can beat this one; after thinking about it there're a lot of twists and turns, so it's certainly possible. I might give this another think later.

PS: I've assumed that both sides know their opponent's set once they enter battle, which I think is a fair assumption.
PPS: Actually thinking about it there might be a way to make supermarth64's set work - simply replace Light Screen with Amnesia. Against Specs Water Spout, you Amnesia turn 1, Amnesia turn 2 (no KO) and then Recover. Against Calm Mind, it might be able to Amnesia on Calm Mind, then Taunt any further attempts to CM and follow up with Recover, Toxic, etc.

 

[Chinese Dood]

The set will not beat all Kyogre sets, because a simple 252 SpA 0 Speed Kyogre holding choice scarf will outspeed that Mewtwo, survive a thunder or grass knot, and 2HKO with waterspout or surf and so will beat that mewtwo 70% of the time (30% paralysis from Thunder).

Actually, Modest Choice Scarf Kyogre with 192 Speed EVs outspeeds all non-scarf Mewtwo and Water Spout OHKOs most Mewtwos and easily 2HKOs otherwise.

EDIT: That said, maybe some sort of Modest Scarf Mewtwo will beat Kyogre since Kyogre can't OHKO with surf (or a weakened water spout)?
EDIT2: Oh, wait, there's Hydro Pump I totally forgot about. And... Specially Defensive Kyogre has fair chance to survive 2 Thunder/Grass Knot while still having enough power to 2HKO with Hydro Pump, so not dominated. I think Modest Mewtwo 24 HP 232 SpA 252 Sp Def Holding Choice Scarf with Thunder and Grass Knot will beat out most Kyogres though (2HKO as Kyogre fails to OHKO)... but will always lose to specially defensive calm mind Kyogre.

 

[-Eddie-]

This is a really cool thread, I thought I was the only one who thought of this kind of stuff!

I tried to do a hard one (Rayquaza vs Kyogre), but I went nowhere with that, so here's an easier one: Mewtwo vs Groudon.

With a spread of 214 Def/252 SpA/44 Spd and a Modest Nature, Choice Specs Mewtwo easily 2HKOs all Groudon (even 252 HP/252 SpD Careful ones equipped with a Rindo Berry) with Grass Knot. In fact, Groudon would need 164 HP / 252 SpD with a Careful nature (or any EV spread with a Rindo Berry) to avoid the OHKO (and this is assuming Mewtwo hits minimum damage output). Since this Mewtwo spread outspeeds all non-Scarf Groudon, the only Groudon sets that have even a CHANCE of attacking Mewtwo are:

• Any Groudon set with a Rindo Berry (the "worst" being an Adamant 252 Atk EV Groudon)

• Any Groudon set with at least 164 HP/ 252 SpD and a Careful Nature (the "worst" being 164 HP/92 Atk/252 SpD w/ Choice Band)

• Any choice scarf Groudon set (the "worst" being 164 HP/92 Atk/252 SpD with a Careful Nature because its the strongest Groudon set that can attack twice with Earthquake)

The first Groudon set gets a maximum of 278 Damage with Rock Tomb followed by Earthquake. Mewtwo has plenty of HP and precedes to KO with Grass Knot.

The second Groudon set does a maximum of 255 with Earthquake. Note: Life Orbed Rock Tomb + Earthquake would be stronger, but Groudon has so little HP after the first Grass Knot that it would die from recoil (even max HP/max SpD). I'm assuming Soft Sand EQ + Rock Tomb is approximately the same as Choice Banded EQ. Even then, Mewtwo has 353 HP so it would survive.

The third Groudon set does a maximum of 342 damage with two EQs. Close, but not enough (Mewtwo has 353 HP).

EDIT: A Paraflinch set is also threatening, the "worst" being the 252 Atk Adamant Groudon w/ Rindo Berry from the first set. However, it would take two Rock Slides + an EQ to KO Mewtwo, a 20.4% chance of two flinches factoring in the accuracy of Rock Slide (that's like a Hydro Pump missing). Combined with Mewtwo rolling absolute MINIMUM damage with Grass Knot, the probability of this is EXTREMELY LOW. I mean, the chance of a critical hit is MUCH higher, and we seem to be avoiding that chance in all of the previous "proofs." However, if you guys want to try some sort of Lum Berry set so that Mewtwo avoids being paraflinched, go ahead.

EDIT2: Actually, 252 HP/252 SpD Careful nature Groudon w/ Choice Scarf has the best chance of KOing Mewtwo by using Fissure (49% it hits at least once, NOT INCLUDING the chance of Mewtwo rolling NEAR MINIMUM damage with Grass Knot). However, I'm assuming OHKO clause is in effect.

Therefore, Mewtwo dominates Groudon.
Q.E.D (<- I feel like such a Mathematician saying that!)

 

[Athenodoros]

I tried to do a hard one (Rayquaza vs Kyogre), but I went nowhere with that

Rayquaza vs. Kyogre is easy: no Rayquaza can beat:

Kyogre @ Choice Scarf
Modest, 252 Hp.|252 Sp. Att.|4 Def.
-Ice Beam

Either Ray can run Choice Scaf to outrun it, or it can run yache/focus sash. Either way, it gets one attack in, and it can never OHKO, while it will either be OHKO'd (Choice Scarf) or 2HKO'd (IYache/Sash) before it can attack the second time.

 

[-Eddie-]

Rayquaza vs. Kyogre is easy: no Rayquaza can beat:

Kyogre @ Choice Scarf
Modest, 252 Hp.|252 Sp. Att.|4 Def.
-Ice Beam

Either Ray can run Choice Scaf to outrun it, or it can run yache/focus sash. Either way, it gets one attack in, and it can never OHKO, while it will either be OHKO'd (Choice Scarf) or 2HKO'd (IYache/Sash) before it can attack the second time.

Quiet 252 Atk/252 SpA Rayquaza with Focus Sash does a maximum of 283 damage with Thunder and a maximum of 125 ExtremeSpeed. 283+125 = 408 > 404 = Kyogre's HP.

OR 180 HP/252 SpD Careful Rayquaza JUST avoids a GUARANTEED OHKO from Ice Beam and can 2HKO (thanks to a scarf) w/ two Thunders or two Outrages (depending on which stat you stacked your defensive EVs in).

Also, just curious, what do you guys use for a damage calculator? I use Marriland's (though it sucks taking LO into account) and
psypoke's occasionally.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

Use the Smogon damage calculator.

 

[Athenodoros]

As stupid as this is going to sound, I completely forgot about Extremespeed. And that still only gives a 0.48% chance of victory: If we are ignoring crits, then I think we can ignore this, which has a similar chance of happening to two crits in a row.

EDIT: That calculation was wrong: it should be 1.1%. However, the point still stands.

 

[-Eddie-]

I'm kinda confused on what qualifies as "close enough" as previous posts ignore critical hits or the chance of hydro pump not missing, but some of them take note of minimum and maximum damage.

Also, by calculator, what calculator tells you that something OHKOs something 60%,70%, or whatever percent of the time. Does each number in the range have an equal chance of happening?

 

[Athenodoros]

I think everyone assumes max damage on the Pokemon they believe dominates, min damage by the one the believe dominates, ignore crits, and attacks missing is like min/max damage. I think everyone just looks for a set which can beat another set ~99% of the time, because it obviously never is going to be assured.

In other news, why does
Kyogre @ Scarf
Modest, 252 Sp. Att.|68 HP|188 Spd
-Hydro Pump

not dominate Mewtwo?

Max Sp. Att. ensures Hydro Pump is always a OHKO, 188 Spd. ensures un-scarfed Mewtwo will move second, and 68 Hp. adds to bulk. Either Mewtwo is Scarfed (it can't OHKO Kyogre, but is OHKO'd back) or it holds a Sash (Kyogre brings Mewtwo to 1 HP. | Mewtwo attacks | Kyogre finishes). And it does not learn any priority attacks. I checked this time.

 

[supermarth64]

Doesn't beat the Mewtwo set I posted previously (212 HP / 252 SpD / 44 Spe @ Sitrus)

Assuming max damage for Hydro Pumps (number in parenthesies for Mewtwo):
Hydro Pump (79 HP)
Sitrus (180 HP)
Light Screen.

Hydro Pump (15 HP)
Recover (208 HP)

Hydro Pump (43 HP)
Recover (246 HP)

Hydro Pump (81 HP)
Recover (284 HP)

Kyogre is now out of HPump PP and Struggles to death. Kyogre would have a better chance to win if it were CM and had Hydro Pump.

 

[Chinese Dood]

The Scarf Kyogre with Water Spout instead of Hydro Pump will beat the Mewtwo with 212 HP / 252 SpD / 44 Spe @ Sitrus though, since that Mewtwo is without Thunder or Grass Knot.

Water Spout will deal minimum 86% (and even has small chance to OHKO), which means min 43% after light screen. 86+43 = 129% > 125% so will KO after light screen. Without Thunder or Grass Knot, Mewtwo won't be able to get Kyogre's HP low enough to not KO with the 2nd water spout.

(As I mentioned before though, scarf Mewtwo will always beat scarf kyogre outside of crits... so... no dominance for either side.)

EDIT: Actually, for whatever reason, I did my calcs wrong, but it didn't matter, Modest Choice Scarf Kyogre 252 SpA Water Spout will 2HKO 212 HP / 252 SpD Sitrus Mewtwo as long as Mewtwo does not have Thunder or Grass Knot. ... just barely guaranteed minimum 125% even for 252 HP 252 SpD for that matter.

 

[Athenodoros]

That's weird, because I'm sure I run that calc yesterday and it was a OHKO regardless of EVs. Oh well.

 

[Banedon]

@Chinese Dood - good catch, I completely forgot about Choice Scarf. Mewtwo needs some other set then.

Doesn't beat the Mewtwo set I posted previously (212 HP / 252 SpD / 44 Spe @ Sitrus)

I think it might be possible to improve your set by dropping Toxic for Thunder (and Light Screen for Amnesia).

You Amnesia on turn 1. Kyogre goes into either Hydro Pump or Water Spout. If it uses Water Spout, you Thunder turn 2. If it uses Hydro Pump, you Amnesia again on turn 2. Then you spam Recover. If Kyogre has Calm Mind, then you Amnesia as he Calm Minds, Taunt, and then kill him slowly with Thunder (he can't Rest).

EDIT: Scarf Kyogre is a different matter. This looks like it'll come down to prediction. I'd go with Thunder then, hoping for the 30% paralyze chance / 20% chance of Hydro Pump missing. That still might not work if two consecutive Water Spouts, even with one weakened, KO Mewtwo. Mewtwo might even need to fit in Me First somewhere @_@ It looks increasingly like Mewtwo cannot dominate Kyogre. So much for Passho Berry not working.

@Athenodoros - Mewtwo learns a priority attack actually: Me First. Not very effective against Kyogre, however.

 

[Athenodoros]

Me first isn't a priority attack: Me First only works if it goes first: it just so happens that only really fast Pokemon learn it.

 

[Banedon]

Oh. I really need to brush up on my knowledge of the mechanics of moves that nobody uses then >_<

Anyway ...

Anything with Torment and enough bulk to survive a hit beats Scarf Kyogre easily, and it just so happens Mewtwo has both: simply use Torment, Protect, lots of bulky and Sitrus Berry. Stall out the 4 attacks of Water Spout / Hydro Pump, and go for the kill.

I think it's increasingly likely that neither Mewtwo nor Kyogre dominate one another.

 

[Mattman324]

I think that we should do something like "pick a pokemon, try to auto-beat everyone."

Let's start with Arceus.

BULBASAUR: Flame Plate, Judgement, kills.

IVYSAUR: Look up.

VENUSAUR: Venusaur MIGHT survive with the Occa berry, but cannot KO with EQ quick enough while Arceus is asleep through Sleep Powder. Arceus wins.

CHARMANDER: Splash Plate, Judgement.

CHARMELEON: Look up.

CHARIZARD: Rock Plate. Zard must run a Scarf, and does not do enough damage with EQ, but Judgement will OHKO.

SQUIRTLE: Zap Plate, Judgement.

WARTORTLE: Look up.

BLASTOISE: Use the SPLASH plate, Rain Dance, Thunder, you resist all special attacks, run some Defense with it, you will win.

CATERPIE: Flame Plate

METAPOD: Look up.

BUTTERFREE: Choice Scarf and Ancientpower. Outspeed always, and KO.

WEEDLE: See Caterpie.

KAKUNA: Great Kakuna Man be damned, see Caterpie,

BEEDRIL: Again, Flame Plate and blast it with Judgement.

PIDGEY: Zap Plate.

PIDGEOTTO: Zap Plate.

PIDGEOT: Zap Plate, use Rain Dance/Thunder so it cannot stall you with Fly and Toxic if it has an Electric resist berry.

RATTATA: Fist Plate, use Extremespeed to stop potential FEAR strategy.

RATICATE: See Rattata.

SPEAROW: See Pidgey.

FEAROW: See Pidgeot.

EKANS: Spooky Plate, spam EQ.

ARBOK: See Ekans.

PIKACHU: EQ one time.

RAICHU: Choice Scarf (to avoid CS Surf), EQ a few times.

SANDSHREW: Splash Plate.

SANDSLASH: Look up.

 

[Showsni]

Let's start with Arceus.

BULBASAUR: Flame Plate, Judgement, kills.

Bulbasaur hangs on with Focus Sash and puts it to sleep with Sleep Powder. So, better give it Sleep Talk too.

 

[alamaster]

Rayquaza vs. Kyogre is easy: no Rayquaza can beat:

Kyogre @ Choice Scarf
Modest, 252 Hp.|252 Sp. Att.|4 Def.
-Ice Beam

Either Ray can run Choice Scaf to outrun it, or it can run yache/focus sash. Either way, it gets one attack in, and it can never OHKO, while it will either be OHKO'd (Choice Scarf) or 2HKO'd (IYache/Sash) before it can attack the second time.

Actually, Rayquaza with a Focus Sash can Dragon Dance then Outrage for a probable KO on Choice Scarf Kyogre.

252 Attack Adamant Rayquaza +1 Outrage vs 252 Hp 4 Def Kyogre: 96.5% - 113.9%

 

[Chinese Dood]

Easy, Icy Wind instead of Ice Beam then. :)
EDIT: actually, needs both Icy Wind and Ice Beam in the same set to handle different types of Rayquaza ... maybe.

 

[Athenodoros]

Okay, the closest I can now find is:

Kyogre @ Scarf
Modest, 128 Hp.|212 Sp. Att.|168 Def.
-Ice Beam

It OHKOs 100% of the time if Ray runs 256 defensive EVs and is an easy 2HKO with max EVs and a positive nature (it can OHKO, 37.7% of the time, but it does not need to.)

If Ray runs 256 defensive EVs and has a sash, none of +1 Outrage, Draco Meteor + Extremespeed, or Thunder can OHKO, and so obviously a Scarf set will not work.

If Ray runs max HP. and Sp. Def. with Sassy and holds a plate (LO will lose to recoil), Draco Meteor + Extremespeed and Thunder do not OHKO. If it holds a Choice Band, Outrage does not OHKO, as above, and Extremespeed obviously does not 2HKO, but if it holds Specs, neither Thunder nor Draco Meteor OHKO.



What have I missed this time?

 

[Banedon]

I wonder if it's possible to ammend my first set to make Mewtwo dominate Kyogre:

Mewtwo @ Sitrus Berry
212 HP, 252 SpD, 44 Spe, Calm (+SpD)
Torment
Thunder
Calm Mind
Recover

With Torment Mewtwo now beats Scarf Kyogre (Torment turn 1, Calm Mind turn 2 [or if Kyogre uses Water Spout, use Thunder], Sitrus recovers health, Calm Mind, Recover, etc). 252 SpA Modest Electric-resist Kyogre is beaten Calm Mind turn 1. Mewtwo lives two Hydro Pumps, and can then Recover to outstall, so whether or not it holds the Electric-resist berry is moot. Specs Kyogre dies to two Thunders, although it's not guaranteed (sadly) - Mewtwo's Thunder does 46.3% - 54.5%. Still there's also the paralysis chance to consider, so Mewtwo wins more than 50% of the time. Against Thunder Wave Kyogre Mewtwo Calm Minds on turn 1, then uses Thunder. +1 Thunder generally 2HKOes 0/252 Kyogre even with Electric-resist.

Finally there is CM Kyogre, against which what looks like the best strategy is to Calm Mind and hope to catch one of Kyogre's CMs with Torment. Mewtwo can then continue to Calm Mind up, surviving Hydro Pumps. Of course if both Kyogre and Mewtwo get to +6/+6 then Mewtwo loses. Maybe Mewtwo cannot fully dominate Kyogre, but as long as it's more than 50% chance to win ...

I'll think of Kyogre vs. Rayquaza later, no time right now.

 

[Athenodoros]

I think the idea is that you cannot change what you do to shape the set that the opponent is running. And I will edit in later why that doesn't beat Kyogre. At least, I think I will. I'm sure it doesn't.

Okay, here we are:
It looks like your set, with an algorithm to choose moves assuming you don't know the set of the Kyogre, can beat any set, but not every set. What I mean is, that against Scarfed Kyogre you have to Torment first turn, against mixed Kyogre (Kyogre learns a very strong Aqua Tail which gets around your Calm Minds) you need to Calm Mind first and against Water Spouters you need to Thunder. As such, you only have a 33.3% chance of victory, because if you choose the wrong move, you lose automatically.

And I am still interested in opinions on Kyogre/Rayquaza.

 

[lati0s]

@bandeon a dominant set must be able to use a strategy that beats a pokemon regardless of its set. You can only beat scarf kyogre by using torment first but this causes you to lose to specs kyogre so your set is not dominant.