Official NBA 2010-11 Season Thread

[DerrickRose]

Dwyane Wade was given Saturday's practice off by Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra so the guard could get some extra rest before the start of the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.

The team has said that Wade, who did some light shooting with teammates after the main workout, does not have an injury. He has been bothered by some fatigue over the last few games, which Wade and Spolestra said is the byproduct of physical series with both the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls.

I was curious by this and looked at he average minutes the big three are playing. They all roughly average 40 minutes. Shocking.

 

[Buzzcut]

That's now what we were talking about man.

Besides I think Barry Bonds' head is enough proof.

He's talking about the other head.

 

[CaptKirby]

hmm maybe phizzlax...not really sure we interact enough for it to be a meaningful bet!

40 minutes per game for the only three players a team...that definitely is not changing in the finals

 

[DerrickRose]

How much does J.J. Barea concern the Heat? They're actually putting him in the same sentences as the league’s Most Valuable Player. With a straight face.

“If you don’t treat him with the same type of respect as we did with Derrick Rose he can really come in and have an impact on the game,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “I’m sure there will be some possessions where LeBron will be on him."

Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/wireta...Will_Spend_Time_Defending_Barea#ixzz1NrAofrHC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9j_tIGGHCo - Finals preview
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[Navy]

LOL LeBrat on Barea...Oh man, SpOILstra cracks me up.

 

[RaikouLover]

Barea will run circles around LeBron unless LeBron wants to expend all his energy playing defense all game. Barea did the same shit to Artest...

 

[Randombobman]

Barea will run circles around LeBron unless LeBron wants to expend all his energy playing defense all game. Barea did the same shit to Artest...

Except that Lebron is 4 years younger, in his prime, and far more freakishly athletic than Artest. Don't get me wrong, Artest is a premier defender, but were talking about a guy who can barely dunk anymore...
Please don't try and compare the two.

 

[Tsunami]

Barea is hardly a threat now that his exploits have recognized...
I'm sure he'll be watched rather carefully rather then the poor defense we've seen in past games

 

[Cadence]

Barea is hardly a threat now that his exploits have recognized...
I'm sure he'll be watched rather carefully rather then the poor defense we've seen in past games

You are really underestimating Barea. He is really quick; if you do not hedge correctly on those pick and rolls, he will turn the corner, get into the lane, and make a good decision with the ball. He has lots of tricks and feints to throw off defenders. Go under the screen and he will hit the open shot most of the time. Rotate late, he'll set up his teammate. If you lose sight of Dirk or if Dirk slips the screen, JJ will dish it to the German Munster. To put it simply, the Heat have to play nearly perfect defense against the pick and roll... Really, JJ Barea is playing really well right now and look to see Carlisle use Barea a bit more depending on who guards him..

 

[Mizuno]

Heh, it would have been even a bigger thing here if Arroyo was still with the Heat. Ah well!

 

[rtc3]

lmao great logo

 

[Phizzlax]

Honestly if the Heat stick their smallest guy on Berea whenever he is on the court (usually Chalmers or Bibby) and just stick to their normal help defense rotations, I don't think Berea will be a big problem for them. He did really well against teams that are average at best defensively, the Heat are considerably better at keeping quick players out of the paint and contesting their shots (see: Derek Rose)

 

[darkie]

dirk proposed to his girlfriend

 

[DerrickRose]

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs (2) Miami Heat

Yes, I didn't use lol mavs... yet.

How Did Dallas Get Here?

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Dallas got here with their offensive execution. In the last two series, Dirk has possibly had the most efficient playoff run in history and most of it came in the fourth quarter. In addition, Kidd has knocked down tons of clutch shots and their bench has exposed opposing benches on other teams. Pick and Pop with Dirk has been the hardest play to guard for everybody and in order for Miami to even stand a chance, they have to contain the points of possessions for that play.

How Did Miami Get Here?

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Miami got here with their defensive execution. With their speed and athleticism, they have been able to tire out their opponents in the fourth quarter with deflections, steals, and tough contested shots. They then convert these into fastbreak dunks or free throw shots which sets up their half-court defense yet again. If Dallas wants to stand a chance, they either need to stay out of the half-court as much as possible (they are not a good paint scoring team as well) or find some half-court execution that works and is consistent. Defensively, they need to play as well or better than Miami. Dallas has actually decreased in rebounding throughout the playoffs (Carlisle has noted this), along with their paint protection; they still defend pretty well without fouling and got a good guy behind Dirk. He just needs to stay out of foul trouble.

Regular Season

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Again, not much to quantify from a half year old regular season game. Line-ups were different and chemistry is different. I think the only thing I could probably say about it is that if the Mavericks lose the series, Caron Butler would have made the biggest difference.

Perimeter

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I think this is where the stark contrast begins. Dallas has hot shooters but aren't big on driving and attacking the rim besides JJ Barea. Meanwhile, Miami are great drivers and defenders but aren't great three point shooters (they can be streaky, however). This is pretty much going to come down to which philosophy is better in a 7 game series.

Both sides suffer predicaments, though. Dallas' predicament is how to keep guys like Peja/Barea/Terry from defending anybody that will kill them, but they need them to score and space the floor at the same time. Carlisle has a lot of pressure to find a line-up that works this way because these guys are susceptible to dribble penetration.

As for Miami, how will their bench hold up and who's going to hit perimeter shots consistently to beat the zone? Dallas has been good in the regular season forcing Miami's point guards to make threes and they've certainly failed the last three series.

Overall, the perimeter is where the philosophies contrast and I think it's the deciding point (you could argue other deciding points, of course).

Frontline

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Dirk will most likely be guarded by a mix of Haslem, Bosh, and LeBron. It probably won't play out well for Miami, but that would be their best shot. Dirk has certainly been the most efficiency player in the playoffs and Miami has to at least limit those numbers.

Dirk can most likely hide defensively most of this series but even when he's forced to play defense, he hasn't done that bad of a job. Miami only really has Bosh and Chandler will most likely be on him the majority of the time anyway.

It will be harder for Dallas to play zone against Miami now that they have Haslem back. I think the only meaningful impact from Miami's frontline is how well they can contain the Dirk pick and pop. If they can't contain it, then they're useless. You can't hope their frontline to do a good job on Dirk and Chandler (in terms of Chandler, I mean rebounding), but they can help shut the perimeter guys down which is just as key since most of Dallas' scoring comes from that area.

To me, the frontline is an x-factor along with..

Bench

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My first instinct thinking about the bench is that Dallas could not only dominate here but solely win the entire series here; however, it is definitely possible for Dallas to have a better bench and still lose the series (although, I think it they would all be close games). Miami's bench hasn't done that much scoring consistently throughout the entire playoffs and they have mostly relied upon the big three's large double figures. What Miami's bench is good for, though, is their team defense.

Things I'd Look For

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• How well will Dallas defend without fouling?
• How well will Miami defend with athleticism?
• Three-point shooting or fast break/foul shot points?
• Offensive execution or defensive stops?
• Will Dallas finally contain dribble penetration?

Who I Favor

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Both teams are pretty equally matched to me. My choice will come down to which philosophy I have a bias to and which I tend to trust more. Both teams have not faced the type of offense or defense in the playoffs yet, so it's hard to figure out how they interact, but if you bring two teams together who have never played each others style before, I'm going to go with the defensive team more often than not.

Now before Dallas fans rip my head off for simply not favoring them, let me just say this: I acknowledge that Dallas is a good defensive team. You don't get to the finals without being at least a good defensive team. The only reasons I'm leaning towards Miami is that I simply trust their philosophy more. Dallas can certainly outshoot Miami, but Miami has one of the best 3 point close-outs. Miami can't guard Dirk one-on-one, but they have the speed and quickness to make the best possible double teams available. Miami doesn't have the rebounding, but looking at the trends, Dallas may not themselves.

Overall, I think Miami is more likely to overwhelm them on the perimeter. Heat in six.

Argument For Dallas

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On the other hand, Dallas doesn't exactly need defense to beat this team (at least not as much as we'd normally expect from the Bulls and Celtics). Dallas is far superior offensively than both of those teams, and if Miami has no defensive gameplan, they're toast.

Unlike other teams, Dallas has taken care of the ball pretty well and undoubtedly has had more spacing than both the Celtics and Bulls. If their spacing is perfect, no amount of speed will close those guys out.

If Dallas wins the series, their bench will rape Miami's so hard that it will make the Lakers' game 4 score look respectable. Barea is the new Chris Paul and Terry manages to not be a defensive liability for once.

Hmm.. I hope that covers everything.

 

[darkie]

DerrickRose I think your analysis is pretty good except for a key point: Miami is allowing 39% on 3 point field goals in the playoffs, and that includes the Bulls games where it seems every other attempt by Chicago was a missed wide open 3. I don't think they can close out on the Mavs 3 point shooters especially considering they have some many of them and they are all unselfish enough to pass up a good shot for a great shot for a teammate. This all starts with Dirk. No one on Miami can cover Dirk (Haslem did a good job in 2006, but that was half a decade ago. This Dirk is much much better.). If they try to double him, Dirk's vision has improved to where this will basically lead to 2 points from a cutting Marion or 3 points from Kidd, Terry, Peja.

I say Mavs in 5 (homer pick) (or Mavs in 6 [nonhomer pick]).

 

[DerrickRose]

DerrickRose I think your analysis is pretty good except for a key point: Miami is allowing 39% on 3 point field goals in the playoffs

You would be correct. I slipped this.

Considering how good Dallas has been from there and what happened to the Lakers, they are very capable of beating the big three in a shootout then (if it ever came to that). Here's to hoping they make their open shots.

 

[darkie]

Marion starts on Wade, Stevenson on LeBron. let's see how this works out.

 

[DerrickRose]

Dirk's pretty quiet..

 

[Lakers]

Someone tell Stephenson that if a guys got you beat on a fast break dont put your hands near him so there can be no chance of a foul being called

 

[Kevin Garrett]

Bold prediction for game 2: James goes 1-7 from three point land.

 

[The Heat]

Glad mah Heat won. They will win it in 5.

EDIT: My bad I forgot they are playing the Mavs. I meant to say 4.

 

[THE_IRON_...KENYAN?]

series over, the next 10+ seasons over, going to stick with mlb/nfl

 

[DerrickRose]

Glad mah Heat won. They will win it in 5.

EDIT: My bad I forgot they are playing the Mavs. I meant to say 4.

I lol'd.

The Mavs just looked like Dirk + A bunch of jumpshooters out there.

 

[Randombobman]

What happened to Dallas 4th quarter closing skills they had built during this playoff run? Miami sliced and diced them up.

 

[Kevin Garrett]

Yeah, it's easy to talk smack when you hold the fort down on your own court in game 1. For how above average the Heat stars shot and how few touches Dirk got in the 4th quarter, this series is far from over.