Sticky Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire

[Gabe]

I actually really like Mega Slowbro. Maybe it's just because I fucking love Slowbro, but the design really isn't that bad to me.

 

[Karxrida]

Thought I’d pull together some significant data on Mega evolution stat upgrades. Using the Megas we already know to make educated guess about Megas that are coming is the best way to theory-mon after all. So here are all the trends that have been set by what we have:

Hard Rules that you shouldn’t break while guessing cause no one will take you seriously

• No mega gets more than +100 to its BST
• Megas USUALLY get +100 to their BST (Mega Alakazam is the only exception with +90 and this is probably because of the general +10 sp.def upgrade its base form got this gen making it still +100 from its gen 5 and earlier base stats)
• No Mega has a change in HP

Trends that can be broken but are worth sticking to or considering while making guesses

• No Mega has had fewer than 3 stats increased (nothing gets all base 100 pumped into just 1 or 2 stats, and among all megas only 25% of them have only 3 stat changes, making is 3 in 4 odds your mega will see changes in 4 or more stats)
• The average stat changes a Mega has is 4
• Only 13% of Megas lose a stat so the other stats can gain more than 100 BST (close to 1 in 10 chance something loses a stat)
• No Mega has lost more than 30 points in a stat (only Abomasnow, Mewtwo Y lost 20 in a stat, and everything else loses 10, so while not impossible losing more than 10 stat is VERY unlikely)
• Speed is USUALLY the stat that is lost if any (although Mewtwo Y loses Defense)
• Based on above no mega loses stats in an offense or in Sp.Defense (although since defense has been lost before losing sp.deffense wouldn’t be too unprecedented but still very unlikely)
• Megas USUALLY have their stats increased by multiples of 10 (the only exception being Venusaur, Charizard X, and Lucario, however these non multiple of 10 upgrades served to give final base stats that are “clean” numbers ending in 0 or 5, expect for M-Lucario’s speed)
• just under 50% of Megas have stats thrown in the offense they were CLEARLY never going to use (this is usually +10 or +20, but there’s basially a 1 in 2 chance your mega “wastes” a little bit of its 100 BS)
• no Mega’s gotten more than +80 in one stat (this is still pretty unprecedented and it only went to Mewtwo X who’s playing at the Uber level)
• excluding Mewtwo X no mega has ever gotten more than +60 in one stat (this only went to Heracross’s attack and Heracross also gave up speed so it’s other boosts weren’t tiny relative to most mega’s secondary boosts)
• Even excluding Heracross and Mewtwo the next biggest upgrade is +50 in one stat and it is still fairly uncommon with less than 25% of Megas getting +50 or better. (Your odds are a little worse than 1 in 4 to get a +50 boost in one stat)
• Most megas got +40 as their biggest boost but some get +30 as well
• The most “Average” Stat upgrades are are a set of boosts around 40/30/20 /10 or 30/30/20/20
• Numerically the average increase to any given stat on a mega is: 20 (actually it’s 19.8 but yeah)

Anyway that stuff should help with educated theory-moning. Here's some examples of what you can tell using the stuff above.

Good and Bad theory-moning based on the above stuff

For instance it’s easy to hope M-Loppuny will get
+0/+80/+0/-10/+0/+30
However, even though this follows all the set in stone rules this has very very low statistical likelihood of happening since there’s no “wasted” stat (1/2), a stat increase over 40 (1/4) and only 3 stat changes (1/4) there is a decreased stat (1/10) those combined trends have 1/320 odds of happening (0.3% chance) And this is not even considering the fact that it’s +80 and not +50. Not to mention it’s breaking a few unbroken trends like even though 3 stats change only 2 are increased (unprecedented) and it includes a drop in sp.atk (unprecedented) You could even argue that going above +60 is unprecedented on non legendary megas if you wanted. So this spread would be all around poor theory-moning.

Way more plausible spreads would look like this:
+0/+50/+10/+10/+0/+20
or
+0/+40/+10/+0/+10/+30

Hopefully all those trends could be useful while we discuss where megas might end up.

You forgot both Zards got +50 to one of their attacking stats.

 

[Lady Vader]

Good News: One of my favorite Pokémon (Slowbro) is getting a Mega Evolution!
Bad News: It looks kinda stupid. It's not the worst design...

Good News: We're getting a Gen V Mega!!!
Bad News: It's Audino. You know, the Pokémon that we only encounter to get easy Exp in Gen V.


Now, while I don't like the design, I'm still looking forward to trying out Mega Slowbro. Shell Armor is a cool ability and will work great with improved defenses and using stuff like Calm Mind. And I agree that Regenerator + Slack Off + Improved Defenses = Near-Immortality.
Audino on the other hand...I'm just not likely to ever use it. Mainly cause the only form of Doubles I play is VGC and I doubt there won't be better Megas to choose from, such as Mawile or Scizor. I will give it points in the design department, though I still prefer regular Audino.

MEGA AUDINO
(I haven't sprited in a while, sorry if it sucks)

I have 23 KB shiny Audinos.

THE AUDINO COLLECTIVE IS INVINCIBLE

I'm seriously so hyped for Mega Audino, it's one of my all time favourite pokemon

Well, I 'm glad that someone is really hyped and happy about Mega Audino.

 

[9 Tales of Ninetales]

You forgot both Zards got +50 to one of their attacking stats.

I never said they didn't did I? Like that doesn't conflict with what I wrote, does it? Also X got less that 50 (+46)

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

Hey, to my mind, if Gamefreak want to focus more on developing and promoting the doubles or triples aspect of Pokemon, more power to them.

 

[stage7_4]

I'm definitely biased on my distaste for theorymoning (mainly that it relies on interpretation of rules we don't fully know made by Gamefreak, which they don't have to hold themselves to),

but is this really the right thread for it? I thought this was to discuss the known aspects of the releases (or at least very very very likely), not play "if it had that stat wouldn't it be great?" all day.

Although, I do like 9 tales of Ninetales summary of the megas to date. And if the mod's are okay then I'm okay.

 

[Kurona]

Hey, to my mind, if Gamefreak want to focus more on developing and promoting the doubles or triples aspect of Pokemon, more power to them.

True... I was kinda mad about Mega Sceptile only seemingly being useful in Doubles for some time, but I... kinda like that it's specialized to be great in one type of metagame rather than painfully average in many.

 

[Prof. Almeida]

As a primary VGC player, I like Mega Audino. Its stats boosts and ability will make it viable to have a more defensive core on VGC. And pairing it with something like Garchomp, for example, that is a WoW bait, and against oponents that like to spam spore (I really believe Dark Void will go back to the void next season), it's really nice to have this opportunity to lose the status problem.

Another thing I like is that it's bulky and has an amazing movepool to support, and with Wish + its improved bulk, you can just slap Moonblast to it, and wear the opposition down, in case it's your last pokémon standing.

All in all, I'm really anxious to try it on. A defensive Mega looks cool.

And as Kurona said, I love the idea of Pokémon like Mega Sceptile, that are really good at doubles. As a Raichu and Manectric trainer, I know really well how good it is to pair a Lightningrod pokémon with things like Gyarados and Charizard.

 

[Kurona]

As a primary VGC player, I like Mega Audino. Its stats boosts and ability will make it viable to have a more defensive core on VGC. And pairing it with something like Garchomp, for example, that is a WoW bait, and against oponents that like to spam spore (I really believe Dark Void will go back to the void next season), it's really nice to have this opportunity to lose the status problem.

Another thing I like is that it's bulky and has an amazing movepool to support, and with Wish + its improved bulk, you can just slap Moonblast to it, and wear the opposition down, in case it's your last pokémon standing.

All in all, I'm really anxious to try it on. A defensive Mega looks cool.

And as Kurona said, I love the idea of Pokémon like Mega Sceptile, that are really good at doubles. As a Raichu and Manectric trainer, I know really well how good it is to pair a Lightningrod pokémon with things like Gyarados and Charizard.

Well, we don't know if Audino gets Moonblast yet... let's hope it does, even though Special Attack is likely to get only a +20 boost at most. More useful than Moonblast though, is that it gets Dazzling Gleam, which I'm sure would be better for Doubles/VGC...?

 

[HauntedPumpkin]

The reason why Game Freak got rid of Regenerator on Mega Slowbro is because his bulk is going to be real, and Regenerator combined with Slack Off would make him broken. Do you really want something with insane defenses getting back 83% of its health in one fell swoop?

Yes, and as much I don't like stall, it would still be better than Shell Armor. It could have gotten something other than Regen too, like Simple, Magic Guard, Solid Rock or some other random crap. He still won't have any defense against status in general, with the most deadly one obviously being Toxic, that's a death sentence right there, since Slowbro can't recover off the damage by switching out anymore.
Not to mention this is so boring, like really, it can't be critically hit, WOW such MEGA much power v fun!!!1!!1
Boring shit is boring.

No.

No thank you.

And if they had at least made it's design a little more decent, it would be easier to look past the terrible ability, but that didn't happen... :/

 

[Prof. Almeida]

Well, we don't know if Audino gets Moonblast yet... let's hope it does, even though Special Attack is likely to get only a +20 boost at most. More useful than Moonblast though, is that it gets Dazzling Gleam, which I'm sure would be better for Doubles/VGC...?

Yes! I forgot about DG. It's way better for VGC. But even with a crappy SAtk, it will outlive the opposition, or win by timer.

 

[gabriel]

Someone pointed this some time ago, but do you guys think it would be valid to include no Mega Slowbro vs Mega Slowbro to the no endless battle clause? Strictly speaking the battle would end as soon as one of the mega slowbros runs out of PP, but do we really want to sit through that?

And let's not ignore the implications of what I've just said: I've just brought up the possibility of limiting one of the most stallish things ever (that's for the people still complaining about Shell Armor). Mega Slowbro can easily set up on lots of things, do some damage, switch out, come back in, heal itself, get one or two calm minds, do some more damage, and keep doing this if played smartly up to the point the opponent won't be able to stop it so it can go +6 and sweep.

Both RestTalk and Slack Off have their merits. RestTalk prevents toxic stalling (after a certain point it probably won't mind burn residual damage, so burn isn't that much of hindrance), but needs to be played carefully, as it might be an open invitation for swords dancers (but depending on who's the SDer and how many boost mega Slowbro has already managed to get, not even that can get on its way). It also can't touch water absorbers. Slack Off offers no protection against status, but frees up a moveslot. Running rest and two attacking moves would require even more caution, but it isn't that worse compared to sleep talk, since by using Sleep Talk there's a 33% chance you won't attack anyway and even if Calm Mind/Scald are chosen there's no guarantee the more appropriate move will be selected.

 

[NotSoClutch]

Yes, and as much I don't like stall, it would still be better than Shell Armor. It could have gotten something other than Regen too, like Simple, Magic Guard, Solid Rock or some other random crap. He still won't have any defense against status in general, with the most deadly one obviously being Toxic, that's a death sentence right there, since Slowbro can't recover off the damage by switching out anymore.
Not to mention this is so boring, like really, it can't be critically hit, WOW such MEGA much power v fun!!!1!!1
Boring shit is boring.

No.

No thank you.

And if they had at least made it's design a little more decent, it would be easier to look past the terrible ability, but that didn't happen... :/

I...disagree. Just how do you plan to KO a mega slowbro? Physical attacks? Better have a mega heracross. Special attacks? Not if I started boosting myself. Walling it? The few walls that can take more than a couple of +1 scalds dont really appreciate an attack from slowbros extensive movepool. Statusing it? Depends on my choice of moves yet again. If I decide to run rest talk, you lose. Phazing? Refer to the section about walling it. Even if you can phaze it, what is stopping slowbro from slacking off before an obvious sturdy whirlwind from scarm and setting up again later? Lucky mercy crit? Not any more. If you have ever faced a calm mind clefable or crocune, you already know the terror this beast will be to face. While its ability isnt quite on par with clefable, clefable wishes it had slowbros movepool and physical bulk. Crocune cant even compete with bros bulk, movepool, or abilities. Oh and another big thing, it still has regen in base form! You dont have to mega right away if you need bro to pivot around a bit.

 

[Lumari]

Someone pointed this some time ago, but do you guys think it would be valid to include no Mega Slowbro vs Mega Slowbro to the no endless battle clause? Strictly speaking the battle would end as soon as one of the mega slowbros runs out of PP, but do we really want to sit through that?

You just answered your own question ;) the endless battle clause is to prevent battles from literally never ending (e.g. via flinging leppa berries) unless someone forfeits; Mega Slowbro vs. Mega Slowbro will end... eventually. Not exactly a desirable situation, but CroCune vs. Crocune isn't either (only ends via pp stalling or a crit, which can't be a legitimate argument against it being endless because it's hax, and it's a pure lottery anyway), and there are many others.

 

[GGengar]

Lastmon Mega-Slowbro seems like such a nasty thing to face. It's like Crocune, except you can't crit it, its not knock off weak, and you get alot of fun moves to play with. Slowbro pre-Mega is still an excellent physical wall so you can play it as a pivot during the early game to give it utility, wearing down physical sweepers and Calm Mind sweep at the end game. If you aren't super worried about status, you can run a Slack Off Calm Mind set to give yourself some more coverage beyond just Scald (Psyshock, Ice Beam, Fire Blast, Etc.) kinda like CM Latias last gen. Obviously Rest, Sleep Talk, Scald Calm Mind will be the best set, but it still has versatility to mix up its set. I for one am excited about this.

EDIT: With JUST 20 points in Sp Def and zero investment, this is Gengar's Shadow Ball with 1 Calm Mind [44.6 - 53.2%] to put things in perspective.

 

[Sweetstack]

I like it, actually. It gives team building an extra dimension, allowing GF to limit your use of the 'new evolutions' whilst also allowing them to create a lot of really powerful and diverse monsters who whilst not utterly ruining the game with power creep. As bad as some of the new megas have been, imagine what the XY metagame would be like if the bulk of the current crop of megas were normal evolutions and you could use them all on the same team. Now add the current crop of upcomings...


I think, if done right, this actually would be the best case scenario for the metagame as a whole, because it essentially would significantly increase the diversity of teams that we, as competitive players, would likely encounter.

For some pokemon (ie. Charizard) a mega feels suitable but others not so much. Some pokemon, even with an additional BST aren't broken or necessarily that good. Mega-Audino has a BST of 545, the same as Togekiss, a pokemon that certainly is not broken (and it doesn't get a stat boosting ability like Mega-Mawile does). Plus, Togekiss gets to hold an item whereas Mega-Audino does not. Audino (as well as others such as Dunsparce, Farfetch'd, Luvdisc, etc.) just feels too incomplete for it to get a mega, which really feels so final.

Speaking of Togekiss, its evolutionary line is a perfect example of how to properly buff a pokemon. Togetic was not that great competitively so in Gen 4, it received a regular evolution which gave it a great ability, a stat buff, and access to moves (such as Air Slash, Aura Sphere, etc.) that it does not have as Togetic. When Togekiss started to lose some of its viability in Gen 5, it got another buff in Gen 6 by being retconned with Fairy typing. If Togekiss starts to lose some of its luster again in future gens, they still have the option of giving it a Mega for another boost (but they don't necessarily have to). That's the type of upgrading Audino should have gone through before getting a mega. With the Togekiss line, they looked for other possibilities available to them besides Mega evolution to keep Togekiss afloat. It's disappointing that they didn't exhaust other possibilities with Audino before slapping on a mega and calling it a day. Now, b/c it has a mega, buff options available are more limited.

 

[_roguemischief]

Well, as much as I love Slowbro, its mega design honestly sucks imo. I mean, I came to like MegaMence's design, but MegaBro is just silly. Regardless of looks, I definitely look forward to using it. I love bulky setup 'mons (especially with recovery), and that looks to be right up Mega Slowbro's alley. As for Mega Audino, to me it's just a punching bag full of EXP, so I'm not a huge fan of it getting a mega, but it has at least opened the floodgates for more Gen V megas in the future.

Now, for something that I haven't really seen mentioned: the Beldum event. Let's talk about how we get a Shiny of these bad boys pretty much from the get-go. Sure, it only has Take Down until it evolves, but a 90 BP move that early will surely do some serious damage, if not warrant several trips to the PokeCenter or lots of Potions. Not to mention it resists the over-abundance of Normal moves early on, and it's immune to the poison those damn Wurmples seem to dish out so often. And let's not forget that it will be able to Mega Evolve once it's a Metagross. Remember the Charizard-X you essentially solo'd X with? Imagine that but stronger, bulkier, and presumably faster/just as fast. And with a fairly expansive movepool, it will definitely have options (Infinite TM uses this time around!). PLUS it will have an EXP boost. I mean, Beldum won't be the best before it evolves, and Metang will eventually start lagging behind power-wise until it evolves, but the payoff will be huge. I'm personally pretty excited for it, though I'm not going to use it on my first run of the game as I'll be using my original Gen III team (Or a close approximation of it, not going through the hassle of using Wailord again).

Also, I think someone mentioned it, but the Shellder does still have its eyes. They're on the back of the shell, as seen on a screenshot from Serebii.

 

[Mario With Lasers]

I find hilarious that, should TM86 be somewhere between Route 119 (most likely) and Sootopolis, we'll have the option of OHKOing Wallace's gym with a Tough Claws-boosted MegaMetagross spamming Grass Knot left and right, as it evolves as soon as lv45. I don't think even lol Luvdisc would survive it.
but maybe MegaMilotic would


And oh boy, I just can't wait to watch the hordes of people using the shiny Beldum and then complaining the game is too easy. One thing is to complain about the Exp. Share (it's not obligatory but they expected you to use it and thus the level curve is kinda weird in XY), another is to use what's clearly a broken pokémon for in-game and acting like they shouldn't have expected the results.

 

[hobbert]

I don't remember reading it anywhere, but we're that stats that mega sceptile gets boosted ever revealed?

 

[_roguemischief]

I don't remember reading it anywhere, but we're that stats that mega sceptile gets boosted ever revealed?

Nope. And if I remember correctly, Mega Blastoise's stat boosts were never revealed either. GF has an annoying habit of not telling me what's going on with my favorite starters :(

 

[Gerard]

MegaSlowbro can also check fighting types much more easily now that it doesn't have to worry about Knock Off, even if he hasn't megavolved yet

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

For some pokemon (ie. Charizard) a mega feels suitable but others not so much. Some pokemon, even with an additional BST aren't broken or necessarily that good. Mega-Audino has a BST of 545, the same as Togekiss, a pokemon that certainly is not broken (and it doesn't get a stat boosting ability like Mega-Mawile does). Plus, Togekiss gets to hold an item whereas Mega-Audino does not. Audino (as well as others such as Dunsparce, Farfetch'd, Luvdisc, etc.) just feels too incomplete for it to get a mega, which really feels so final.

Speaking of Togekiss, its evolutionary line is a perfect example of how to properly buff a pokemon. Togetic was not that great competitively so in Gen 4, it received a regular evolution which gave it a great ability, a stat buff, and access to moves (such as Air Slash, Aura Sphere, etc.) that it does not have as Togetic. When Togekiss started to lose some of its viability in Gen 5, it got another buff in Gen 6 by being retconned with Fairy typing. If Togekiss starts to lose some of its luster again in future gens, they still have the option of giving it a Mega for another boost (but they don't necessarily have to). That's the type of upgrading Audino should have gone through before getting a mega. With the Togekiss line, they looked for other possibilities available to them besides Mega evolution to keep Togekiss afloat. It's disappointing that they didn't exhaust other possibilities with Audino before slapping on a mega and calling it a day. Now, b/c it has a mega, buff options available are more limited.

To be blunt, your logic here escapes me. You argue that 'completeness' is a necessary precursor to mega evolution, but don't proceed to define your concept besides what feels right to you. You do make an effort to link completeness in some respects to competitiveness, but this confuses me as well, since the one which you nominate as feeling 'complete' - Charizard - has never been competitive. Not trying to be abrasive or confrontational, just really don't understand how Audino, for example, is any different from Kangaskhan, Pinsir, Heracross, etc.

 

[Kurona]

I don't remember reading it anywhere, but we're that stats that mega sceptile gets boosted ever revealed?

It's funy, I was actually just thinking about how it hasn't been revealed when EVERYTHING ELSE had it's stats revealed. I mean, I'm sure we can make an educated guess that it's speed and special attack will be the most boosted, but... it'd be nice to get some confirmation.

 

[The Shadow Knight]

I find hilarious that, should TM86 be somewhere between Route 119 (most likely) and Sootopolis, we'll have the option of OHKOing Wallace's gym with a Tough Claws-boosted MegaMetagross spamming Grass Knot left and right, as it evolves as soon as lv45. I don't think even lol Luvdisc would survive it.
but maybe MegaMilotic would


And oh boy, I just can't wait to watch the hordes of people using the shiny Beldum and then complaining the game is too easy. One thing is to complain about the Exp. Share (it's not obligatory but they expected you to use it and thus the level curve is kinda weird in XY), another is to use what's clearly a broken pokémon for in-game and acting like they shouldn't have expected the results.

I'm taking it a step further. I'm planning to import my own Shiny Beldum with good IV's and EV's at lvl 5 if possible. I can say I dont play the ingame for the challenge though.

It also just dawned on me that mega CroBro gets another passive buff in the form of being immune to Trick.

 

[Mario With Lasers]

I mean, I'm sure we can make an educated guess that it's speed and special attack will be the most boosted, but...

My educated guess is that its Speed is going to be reduced, actually. There's a pretty big pine tree for a tail, it might slow it down.

Then again, as I said before in this thread, Megalatis are literal jetplanes and they got no boost to Speed, so Sceptile might not have it Speed reduced either. I actually want it not to be touched at all, because 1) its Speed tier is comfortable enough already, 2) it needs all the points it can get everywhere else, and 3) fuck Thundurus.