Simple Questions/Requests - Mark 44 (Minor Pokemon Trades, Item Requests etc GO HERE) (NO HACKING)

[trikx_insane]

someone resets 3 shiny legends for example the first takes 20 hours the 2nd takes 5 and the 3 takes 25 hours thats 60 hours total and 20 on avarage so youre comment about there not being an avrage is incorect because there is

Shady was kind of enough to do the math for you. There is still no "average" time. Essentially, you chances are "increased" everytime you reset, but it's still based on luck based on the fact RNG is involved. Just because you can take the total amount of time from multiple people and then calculated the so-called "average", this average proves nothing. RNG/luck has a huge factor because then you can be way beyond average, or even below, or on par with the average.

Edit: What I'm saying is, you can have a 99% chance of getting a shiny after #nth reset, but still not be able to get a Shiny because RNG is still a factor. The 99% is not really a "99% chance", it's a essentially a percentage that is based on "probability" that you should be able to get it, but RNG can rig this so called 99% chance.

 

[lats]

The idea that the ball needs to "match" is pretty ridiculous. That's the perfect ball conceptually, because it's made for pokemon with habitats like Lugia's.

Welcome to Wi-Fi.

Aesthetics are a huge thing in what a Pokémon's trading worth is. Matching is the most popular route in choosing an appropriate ball.

 

[hypno28]

Welcome to Wi-Fi.

Aesthetics are a huge thing in what a Pokémon's trading worth is. Matching is the most popular route in choosing an appropriate ball.

Yeah, I see that, but that doesn't make it the correct choice.

 

[wowgek7]

What he's saying is, since it's based on a Random Number Generator, technically there is no definite average, it mostly relies on luck. So if your going to start lamenting about your bad luck again, just don't bother.

Shady was kind of enough to do the math for you. There is still no "average" time. Essentially, you chances are "increased" everytime you reset, but it's still based on luck based on the fact RNG is involved. Just because you can take the total amount of time from multiple people and then calculated the so-called "average", this average proves nothing. RNG/luck has a huge factor because then you can be way beyond average, or even below, or on par with the average.

nvm me asking because eaperently you guys dont understand what avrage means because there is an avarage. Yes it luck but if I for example reset 10 pokemon till I get shinies of them there is an avarage time which is the total amount of time devided by 10 its easy math even a child of 8 can do so saying there is no avrage is uther bullshit. saying you dont know fine thats possible but saying there isnt an avarage doesnt make any sence because there is if i throw blindfolded darts at a board there is an avrage about how many times I hit the same place. there always is a avrage if you know it or not.

but oh well im done with asking since I cant get any serius answer at all for a verry simple question

 

[$teele]

Yeah, I see that, but that doesn't make it the correct choice.

In the end, it's all about opinions, some say it's the colour scheme, others say it's the animation when the Pokeball opens, others accept nothing else but a classic Pokeball. But in most part, people here at Smogon look for balls that match colours with the Pokemon that's enclosed inside.

 

[Valzy]

What he's saying is, since it's based on a Random Number Generator, technically there is no definite average, it mostly relies on luck. So if your going to start lamenting about your bad luck again, just don't bother.

What the hell are you talking about?! It's quite easy to calculate the mean number of resets required to get a flawless Pokemon

 

[$teele]

nvm me asking because eaperently you guys dont understand what avrage means because there is an avarage. Yes it luck but if I for example reset 10 pokemon till I get shinies of them there is an avarage time which is the total amount of time devided by 10 its easy math even a child of 8 can do so saying there is no avrage is uther bullshit. saying you dont know fine thats possible but saying there isnt an avarage doesnt make any sence because there is if i throw blindfolded darts at a board there is an avrage about how many times I hit the same place. there always is a avrage if you know it or not.

but oh well im done with asking since I cant get any serius answer at all for a verry simple question

... "uther bullshit"? Sorry, I only know of one type.

What the hell are you talking about?! It's quite easy to calculate the mean number of resets required to get a flawless Pokemon

Look at trikx_insane 's post, that's what I was trying to convey. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Pokéguy]

It's easier to get a shiny legend in gen 6, the rate is 1/4096 (w/o shiny charm), where it was 1/8192 in previous generations (w/o shiny charm, also the shiny charm ratio would only apply in gen 5), your chances of getting a shiny increases per every reset via the following formula:

(ratio)^n x 100, where your ratio is either 4095/4096 (w/o shiny charm) or 1364.3/1365.3 (w/ shiny charm) and "n" is the number of resets, for example after 500 soft-resets (w/o shiny charm) your chances of not getting shiny legend would be:

(4095/4096)^500 x 100 ≈ 88.51% -> the chances of the "event of not getting a shiny legend after 500 soft-resets" would be approximately 88.51%.

• Essentially, even though luck does matter, you will eventually encounter a shiny as your number of resets gradually increases.

Wow, I had no idea it went up with each reset. Tell me, how did you confirm this? Do Rayquaza resets count for Suicune resets and will the grand total help with Zekrom later? That's so cool, thanks for the info shady.

EDIT: Also, With out shiny charm (0.99975585937), with Shiny Charm (0.99926756024). Does that really make a difference? It seems the same to 3 significant figures.

 

[Sethalopod]

Anyone know someone who does or personally have a competitive Tornadus? Looking to use it as prankster taunter with 100% accurate hurricane in rain.

 

[Pokéguy]

It's simple math, anyone can do it lol.

Oh I think I miss interpreted what you're trying to say; does the % only raise theoretically, as in the chance of it happening over time is more likely or does Nintendo actually keep track of the number of resets you're doing? Haha, I think shady6121 just math served us, smogon. lol.

EDIT: Thanks for all the replies everyone; I'd like to apologize for the amount of posts this question took; I only have grade 12 math and we didn't cover probability in Canada (or maybe I wasn't paying attention; lol), I thought shady6121 was actually talking about a in-game mechanic, but that's not the case. Just logically how it should happen. :P

 

[Tatertot]

Wow, I had no idea it went up with each reset. Tell me, how did you confirm this? Do Rayquaza resets count for Suicune resets and will the grand total help with Zekrom later? That's so cool, thanks for the info shady.

EDIT: Also, With out shiny charm (0.99975585937), with Shiny Charm (0.99926756024). Does that really make a difference? It seems the same to 3 significant figures.

The way this is worded is bad, the game doesn't ACTUALLY make any sort of change in the odds based off of how long you have been resetting. In statistics you have the chance of something happening, which is set, and also the chance of that chance happening, which basically means that if you do one reset, you're probably not going to get it, but if you do 1,000,000 resets, you probably are going to get it. The destinyknot.tk website has a section that shows this.

Hope this clarifies!

 

[Sethalopod]

Oh I think I miss interpreted what you're trying to say; does the % only raise theoretically, as in the chance of it happening over time is more likely or does Nintendo actually keep track of the number of resets you're doing? Haha, I think shady6121 just math served us, smogon. lol.

This is what I was just typing. All the math is theoretical probability and does not guarantee the results. Hence the Random in RNG. It does not guarantee you a shiny if you did this to the 75% mark 4 times and give you 3 shinies. Just like when you're hatching eggs and some people hatch thousands with nothing to show for t.

 

[wowgek7]

Oh I think I miss interpreted what you're trying to say; does the % only raise theoretically, as in the chance of it happening over time is more likely or does Nintendo actually keep track of the number of resets you're doing? Haha, I think shady6121 just math served us, smogon. lol.

wel lets say for example that you have a bag with 100 balls 9 red 1 blue. the chance of you getting that blue one is 10% like you know. he was talking about the chance of you not having the blue one yet after x amount of tries.

 

[Sidfrid]

but if you do 1,000,000 resets, you probably are going to get it.

This is the bulk of all this discussion. The more you SR the higher your probability will get but you will never get to the 100% point.

Just google probailistic theory, read some and fill your answer.

 

[Widdly_Scuds]

People at my school are fighting to get into the Probability math classes for finance and actuary majors and I'm only interested in taking probability classes for Pokemon purposes lol. My priorities are awesome.

To stay on topic, can somebody do some cloning for me? Need 4+ original of 2 Pokes, you're welcome to CMT or just keep a copy for yourself.

 

[eeveefan]

Looking for Soul Dew. CMT?

Do you still need it? I can give you mine.

 

[trikx_insane]

People at my school are fighting to get into the Probability math classes for finance and actuary majors and I'm only interested in taking probability classes for Pokemon purposes lol. My priorities are awesome.

To stay on topic, can somebody do some cloning for me? Need 4+ original of 2 Pokes, you're welcome to CMT or just keep a copy for yourself.

I can help clone. Will be online.

 

[$teele]

Offering cloning services. PM to arrange :]

 

[Pokéguy]

Do you still need it? I can give you mine.

Yes please. What would you like for it?

Also, Keep or Toss this Suicune. If you vote for Toss, please explain your logic, on why this Suicune needs higher speed. Keep in mind, I already have a 31/X/31/31/31/31 Bold Shiny Suicune, and just want this for tournaments and ranked random wifi match up.

Suicune - #245 (Bold)
HP: 31
Att: 13
Def: 31
SpA: 31
SpD: 31
Speed: 7

Suicune - #245 (Bold) : 31 / 13 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 7

Possible Hidden Power Types: Dark

 

[lats]

Also, Keep or Toss this Suicune. If you vote for Toss, please explain your logic, on why this Suicune needs higher speed. Keep in mind, I already have a 31/X/31/31/31/31 Bold Shiny Suicune, and just want this for tournaments and ranked random wifi match up.

Suicune - #245 (Bold)
HP: 31
Att: 13
Def: 31
SpA: 31
SpD: 31
Speed: 7

Suicune - #245 (Bold) : 31 / 13 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 7

Possible Hidden Power Types: Dark

Keep for the reason bolded.

 

[Valzy]

if you do 1,000,000 resets, you probably are going to get it.

IDK, what about that (6.2614871725*10^-317)% chance of not getting a shiny? That's way too high man

 

[Rawbi]

Hey guys.

I'm looking for an Adamant Marvel Scale Dratini w/ Extremespeed, a Modest Piplup, and/or a Careful Ditto. IVs don't particularly matter, I'm using these to start my own breeding projects and I'll be happy to take a random spitback off your hands.

I don't have a lot to offer in exchange, since I've been out of the loop for a while, but here's a few:

• 4IV Jolly Limber Buneary w/ Fire/Thunder/Ice Punch & Fake Out (two females, one male)
• 4IV Impish Immunity Gligar (one female, one male)
• 5IV (-Def & -Spe) Careful Larvitar w/ Pursuit & Stealth Rock
• 4IV Thick Fat Adamant Snorlax
• 5IV (-HP, -Spe, -SpAtk) Timid Mareep w/ Agility
• 4IV Timid Compound Eyes Yanma
• random shiny Gulpin, Yanma, and Infiltrator Zubat

Shoot me a message if you're interested!

 

[trikx_insane]

Yes please. What would you like for it?

Also, Keep or Toss this Suicune. If you vote for Toss, please explain your logic, on why this Suicune needs higher speed. Keep in mind, I already have a 31/X/31/31/31/31 Bold Shiny Suicune, and just want this for tournaments and ranked random wifi match up.

Suicune - #245 (Bold)
HP: 31
Att: 13
Def: 31
SpA: 31
SpD: 31
Speed: 7

Suicune - #245 (Bold) : 31 / 13 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 7

Possible Hidden Power Types: Dark

I was first in agreement with lockie, but now that I think of it, speed might be necessary as it can learn Tailwind (via Move Tutor) and has reasonable base speed of 85. So, toss. lol.

 

[<Totes>]

nvm me asking because eaperently you guys dont understand what avrage means because there is an avarage. Yes it luck but if I for example reset 10 pokemon till I get shinies of them there is an avarage time which is the total amount of time devided by 10 its easy math even a child of 8 can do so saying there is no avrage is uther bullshit. saying you dont know fine thats possible but saying there isnt an avarage doesnt make any sence because there is if i throw blindfolded darts at a board there is an avrage about how many times I hit the same place. there always is a avrage if you know it or not.

but oh well im done with asking since I cant get any serius answer at all for a verry simple question

Dude... there is an average time, but it is different for everyone else. For example let's say I soft resetted for 2 day, but you soft resseted for 5 days that means my average time to get the shiny cress is different than yours. Now if you have read this carefully, my point is everyone's average time is totally random and is mostly based on luck.

Also, you can't really blame anyone, we have all given you an answer, but you have turned it into an argument. I mean what I am saying is that "even though someone's answer may not be what we like, respect that they took the time and tried to answer the question. Then give your opinion on why you think it is not right instead of starting all of this and cuss because this place is not the streets."

 

[dialganet]

Pokéguy

In a nutshell, 1) probability is a chance (always, even if 99,999%) and not a certainty, and 2) incremental probability works in this way: the % of combined events is the moltiplication of the single event probability.

1)Think about flipping a coin 2 times: how much is the probability of getting 1 head and one tail? the combinations are TAIL-TAIL HEAD-TAIL TAIL-HEAD HEAD-HEAD. So one head and one tail has a 50% probability of happening. Does that mean you'll get the combination after 2 attempts (50%+50%=100%!!!)? Of course not, because you could get HEAD-HEAD, TAIL-TAIL.

2) Staying on the same example, how much is the probability of getting TAIL-TAIL? 25%, since it's one out of four combination. But it's also the combined combination of getting TAIL (50% per se) on the first flip and TAIL again (50% per se) in the second: 50%*50%=25% (0.5*0.5=0.25). Speaking in pokemon terms, Flame Body burns you 30% of the time. That means that you have 70% of not getting burned. Over two turns, the chance of not getting burned will be 70%*70% (49%), meaning you have a 51% of getting burnt.

That's the same with the shiny softresetting, but since the probability is so thin, the opposite probability of NOT being shiny tends to diminish a lot slower (think about 99%*99%*99%...) and there's always the chance of randomness screwing you.