Multifaction/FFA The Mafia of the Five Kings - Game Over, King of the Iron Islands wins

[vonFiedler]

So lemme get this straight

There are 5 factions opposed to the mafia which we know at least consists of alias Qorin Halfhand. 3 factions have regrettably lost a member. I can honestly say that I'd rather have not seen Highgarden killed before a Targ. And y'all are fucking sitting around trying to hit someone either in the Narrow Sea or Iron Islands? There are three kills tonight, including targ, when do you really think we're going to balance out? It's in no one's best interest to use the lynch for anything other than getting rid of targs.

 

[Gale Wing Srock]

So Guys, here is the thing. We have Inspected a Targ. Who is a BG.

Dear Denys Mallister,

You are Ser Jorah Mormont, formerly Lord Jorah Mormont of Bear Island. You swear fealty to the Targaryen Dynasty.

“The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are.”

Formerly the head of House Mormont of Bear Island, you were forced into exile after attempting to sell a poacher to a slaver rather than executing him. Now living in the Free Cities, you have sworn your sword to Daenerys Targaryen. Oh, and you’ll fight for her too ;)

Each night, you may reply to the host conversation with “Night X - Guard USER”. Your martial prowess will prevent any actions targeting your target from succeeding, including kills.

[snip]

You win if you eliminate all other factions and any hostile neutrals.

Now the thing is, even if we believe DLE's faction, aka Targs, to be a small number. We cannot let them have a BG alive at the end of the game. Because it will make the kills on them to have a chance to miss due to being BG'd. I know you guys want to take out certain threats from the game before the targs, expecting them to not be a threat. But its going to be difficult as the game moves on, why?

Hi, I'm a Targaryen.

Walrein hates us so we're a tiny faction with a 1/2 kill with mediocre roles that don't make up for our numbers in a game where everyone needs us dead. We have no chance of winning if people in this game aren't brain dead. So if you don't want those 1/2 kills used on you - especially the one tonight - don't kill or vote for us and spend time trying to eliminate teams that actually have a chance of beating you, thanks.

This is clearly intimidating us into not Lynching them or night killing them. Remember, the targs would anyways use the Kill on one of us. Even if neither of us vote for them. So they want to pit us against each other, while they have a jolly ride till the end of the game.

Also the neutral(s) should contact me asap if you're lost and need friends. Jon Snow (har har he's got a wolf and he's a wolf even though he doesn't care about being king, very funny Walrein), Jaime Lannister (har har my nickname is the Kingslayer even though nothing about me is neutral), Ramsay Bolton (because he's craaaaazy) and or any other possible neutrals, I'm looking at you.

Also, DLE is looking for friends in Neutrals. Who would obviously try to befriend him over a faction for obvious reasons.

Tbh, if we don't atleast take out their BG via Lynch. Then we are definitely at a big disadvantage going into the end game. No matter which Factions manage to reach that stage.

Fires a Gun Shot at Denys Mallister

 

[vonFiedler]

Vote Denys Mallister

 

[Da Letter El]

The first team to join the Narrow on a targaryen lynch loses a player tonight.

 

[Da Letter El]

Now the thing is, even if we believe DLE's faction, aka Targs, to be a small number. We cannot let them have a BG alive at the end of the game.

Obviously. You lynch can lynch him pretty much whenever, as it is very easy to form a coalition on a lynch of literally every team in the game, as the incentive for the teams to do so is by design high. This isn't the case with a faction, as by design they have a pool of potential allies to help in an attempted lynch. And it's not like our 1/2 kill is gonna blitz this game open...

What happens in 5 person rotational games is that the strong faction will tell sweet nothings to both of their possible allies and convince them to keep killing their enemies instead of letting their enemies kill them, since they're "friends." Then the strong faction basically can just go unopposed from the lynch, as there is a prevailing conception that von illustrates that lynches should be used to lynch enemies. This is blatantly false and will lead to you losing games.

This is literally how the Toys dominated in Amelimafia.

If you want a summary since the anon forum got deleted, Toys got stupidly strong and had the Paranormals as a potential ally. Toys had 2 enemies: my team the Really Weird Eggs and jackal's team the Halflings. Jackal is bad at mafia so his team got wrecked. Like they were all dead except for Nook by day 5 of a 12 day game... So then all the Toys needed to do was eliminate us and they would win. But they had the ability to win with either the Paranormals or the other team whose name I can't remember since no one mentioned it in the thread. The Paranormals' potential allies were the Really Weird Eggs and the Toys. The Paranormals had the opportunity to join us and the remaining Halflings to be able to get majority in the lynch as well as utilize their 3 kills to at least provide a working chance for the Toys to lose (but probably not). Instead, the Paranormals held onto the hope that the Toys would work with them instead of with the other faction, despite some evidence that they were more than likely to be the odd team out. If not for gmax subbing out from a family emergency, it would have been a dual victory for the toys and the other team. Instead, LN and Mekkah said f that and won solo because they wanted to.

If you want a moral to the story, it's that if you let a faction get strong in a 5 faction game and lose lynch control, you're probably going to lose the game. And it happens really quickly. It's way more important to put checks to strong teams now with the lynch while you still can and deal with a team that cannot deal with the lynch later.

Sorry if the summary was at all unclear.

If you prefer numbers, look at it like this:

If you propose a lynch on a normal faction, you have 8 players who would probably like that lynch, 4 who very much do not want that lynch, and 8 who would prefer a different lynch. While in the state where everything is equal, there isn't really an equilibrium. In theory, the faction being lynched would attempt to propose a more favorable lynch to one group of those 4 and then the last team is a 4 person tiebreaker. But as soon as things become imbalanced, what happens is that you have 6 people who like a lynch on a strong faction, 4 who very much do not want that lynch, and 7 who would prefer a different one. This 4 then appeals to the strongest of their potential allies and then it's 8v6 with a 3 person team tie breaker. This tie breaking team would then have to think "oh shit, I need to vote for my potential ally or I will lose, as they will choose the stronger potential ally over me." That's a super hard thing for most teams to think or realize in that situation. What most teams do in this situation is to sit out the lynch so as not to anger the 4 person team they could possibly win with to "increase their chances of winning with them" which isn't wholly unreasonable logic; it's just flawed in that the strong faction will just choose the other strong faction. So let's say this weaker team got lynched. Congrats; you have just given the strongest faction combination an 8v8 even if the 3 tries to side against them at this point: it's 4v4 v 3v3v2. This is with literally 3 players dead. This sounds familiar.

This simplification ignores the presence of neutrals but most neutrals don't want to reveal their aliases. I obviously would have preferred not revealing mine as a virtual neutral, but that isn't an option in a game with this many inspects. My offering of my votes and team coordination provides a solution to power checks.

Teams would be wise to take it.

 

[Gale Wing Srock]

To keep things simple:

If you don't Lynch a Targ BG soon, You are indirectly making the factions to kill other factions instead of targeting the targs.

Because you guys know that they have a BG, who needs to be hooked for a kill on a Targ, you might as well look for other factions to kill than the targs (if you don't have a hooker in your faction), and with this mindset the targs would not be killed till the end game.

----

Other than that, we don't even know all the targs at this point of the game. But the factions would eventually reveal themselves.

It is harder to find targs than it is to find factions, and that is the reason that a Targ BG is more of an effective Lynch than a Rand Faction player.

----

Btw, if you guys want to vote for the faction player, then you should know his full role PM. Its better to Lynch a target who you are certain of, than to Lynch a target based on a hearsay info.

-----

They tricked us in the last lynch cycle on Day 1, don't be tricked again into letting one of them go. This setting up of a faction player as bait will continue on, as long as the Targs have their inspector alive. But if they don't have a BG, then there chance at surviving till the end game is greatly reduced.

 

[vonFiedler]

"The" strong faction. Lol, what the fuck ever dude. I see 3 factions that are at full strength, including yours. On my part, nothing has gone the way I'd have liked this game. The only person not on my faction who can attest to that would have nothing to gain by lynching me, but it's the absolute truth. "How rotational games go"? Nice 5 year old game to reference. In every other game since then the group that comes out ahead first gets fucked the hardest second. I don't doubt that our turn will come but I'll be damned if it doesn't come before the mafia. If Narrow dies today, Irons Islands is ahead tonight. If one of them dies tonight, and two members of two other king's factions, then we're back right at square one bickering over whose pile is biggest.

 

[Da Letter El]

>4 people with 17-19 enemies (the entire rest of the game). 1 allied neutral if lucky.

4 people with 10 (3 vil 1, 3 vil 2, 2-3 maf, 2-1 neut) enemies, 4 of which won't want to publicize their aliases very much. 7 allies.

hmmmmmmm

 

[Aura Guardian]

Unvote
Lynch Denys Mallister

 

[Da Letter El]

Narrow, I want you to note that I haven't even voted for you yet on the off chance you come to your senses, as I have nothing personal against you. Continuing this vote will earn my vote, however.

 

[sunny004]

Lynch Thoren Smallwood

 

[Aura Guardian]

Unvote

 

[Aura Guardian]

Upon reviewing the evidence, Lynch Thoren Smallwood

 

[UncleSam]

It was the Heroines (can't remember full name) @ DLE as to the name of the other faction in Amelimafia.

 

[Da Letter El]

thats it, the heroines, thanks

for the sake of full disclosure i might have gotten some of the details of the amelimafia game wrong because it was ages ago, but the point that matters and the point i do remember for a fact is that the paranormals lost because they did not vote for the team that they could potentially win with in the hopes they would do so without the evidence to prove they would. It is almost certainly foolish to assume that a team will work with you by day 2 and the refusal to save them in one lynch does not doom them from helping you in an alliance; they'll just be slightly annoyed at worst.

Anyway

To the North and to the Iron Islands: seeing the other potential ally of the Narrow making a move on this lynch should constitute a fairly strong commitment of trust between the two factions. The minute one of you sides with the Narrow, I am going to call for the entire game to gang up together and make the game a 2v4, as that should show that those two factions want to win together. To the one of you who does not join in the lynch of a Targaryen, you would benefit most from being the slightly more neutral but still possible choice to the Narrow in this arrangement of a 2v4 than praying that you're stronger in a 3v3 AND that the Narrow choose you in a kingmaker, which they probably won't given you didn't help them in the vote. You then have a virtual guarantee of one enemy dead in the north and have 3 factions largely ignoring you instead of a generic 3v3 in factions where you're at a disadvantage of being chosen to win barring some great luck. As such it is not in your interest to be the sole ally helping the Narrow, as the best play of the 4 other factions would be to single out the obvious two teams trying to collab for a win and gives a huge advantage to the one potential ally who doesn't side with them. If you are the faction that makes the first move to help the Narrow, assuming the other potential Narrow faction is smart, they can abandon you and leave you out to dry and guarantee you as their enemy get focused by 3 other factions.

If you both help in the vote of Targaryen, for one the second team is especially silly for giving away a free chance at being ignored in a 2v4 with a free enemy being killed, but regardless I'm killing the one who votes first and going to call for the same thing again tomorrow: a lynch on a Narrow. If you don't join in again, I'm going to convince Iron Throne and High Garden to prioritize North / Iron Islands kills to put you in a position where your life is in my/throne/garden's hands in a virtual 3v3. If we ignore killing the Narrow and only worry about killing north and islands, it's your 7 vs the 10 of highgarden iron throne, targaryen and neuts. We have just enough kills to be able to force a kingmaker from this position guaranteed even if the neutral is a non killing neutral. Even if the 3 of your factions win every lynch, to eliminate us all would take 6 night kills and 4 lynches, aka 4 days and nights. In that time we can kill 6 of the 7 between you barring a neutral kill, which easily pushes that over. And note that in most worlds this would constitute both of your factions saying "yes, we want Narrow to win and I hope they choose us." But by the other 3 factions playing this way, this gives the other 3 factions the kingmaker of being able to completely eliminate one team and leave the other almost dead if roles go in our favor, not the Narrow who you would hope would pick you. I will put the game into a position of more than likely forcing a Narrow solo win if you do this and it would be fairly easy to convince highgarden and iron throne to join in as it's their only hope of getting through one of your faction's heads that maybe Narrow has their own interests at heart and not yours by putting you in a position of mercy of dying at their hands. As such it is not in your interest to both ally and help the Narrow, as while the rest of the game may not have the numbers to directly take on a 3v3, it does have enough to win a 3v2 if we ignore the Narrow and force your loss; or at least put your life in a position of mercy where your only chance to survive is to negotiate with targ/highgarden/throne.

Throw in all the reasons on why trusting the game on a kingmaker is a poor game decision to make especially on day 2 and you have a really bad idea trying to lynch Targaryen here.

tl;dr islands and north, don't help the Narrow lynch Targaryen or I'll get the rest of the game to gang up on you in addition to the use of our own kills on you. I've shown you the optimal strategy the rest of the game can, should, and will with my lead follow based on this lynch and how they lead to your loss or at the very least the mercy of the other factions in a worst case game set up scenario.

 

[Gale Wing Srock]

Lol its funny how much I suck at being a mole. Well tbh, I don't like all the lying that comes with it. But I had to try no?

This was my second time moling and both times I have failed miserably on Day 2. Suspicious on Day 1, Caught / Surrendered on Day 2 (+_#)

Anyways, I apologize for all the lying I did this game. I promise you guys that I will not lie the next game, completely. Just trying out different strategies to see which one I am most comfortable in.

I have certain information that I will pass along, and try to omit certain others that I don't think is necessary to be mentioned. Being moled sucks, but I had to experience it if I could, shouldn't I have? Anyways, no hard feelings guys. Some plays were my only plays, and had to do them, so I think you guys would forgive me for that.

Here is my Role PM as full disclosure:

Dear Thoren Smallwood,
You are Melisandre of Asshai, called the Red Priestess. You swear fealty to the King in the Narrow Sea.

“We all must choose. Man or woman, young or old, lord or peasant, our choices are the same. We choose light or we choose darkness.”

A shadowbinder from the mysterious land of Asshai with a Dark and Secret Past, your entire life revolves around the worship of Rh’llor, the Lord of Light, also known as the Red God. This faith has led you to believe that Stannis Baratheon is the legendary hero Azor Ahai reborn, and as such you support him as the one true King of Westeros. You also may or may not have the ability to give birth to shadow assassins by sexing the life out of guys. Yea.

Each night, you may reply to the host conversation with “Night X - Sending the shadows to aid ALIAS”. Using your definitely-not-evil-or-creepy shadow powers, you will ensure that your target’s actions are successful that night.

You have seen in the fires that Tyrion Lannister is not in this game. Use this information however you wish.

You win if you eliminate the King in Highgarden, the King on the Iron Throne, the Targaryen Dynasty, and any hostile neutrals.

Lol Melisandre, GG!

*also my last post was my 300th ^_^

 

[Mithril]

Since you seem to have thought about how north or islands supporting narrow would end up, you must also have thought about how either faction benefits from sitting around and allowing their ally to get killed. Or even how any faction but yours benefits from allowing the targs to completely control the game. I'm honestly still not sure how I should proceed, but simply following dles master plan doesn't seem like my best course of action.

Also gale, moling is a part of the game. Just ask dle about his own failed moling this game.

 

[AOPSUser]

I feel as though both lynches are terrible options, though the second one is really personal bias so ehh.

We know the aliases of two of the presumably three Targs, and we know the identity of their BG. So perhaps, we could try to use the Targs for our own purposes? We can always avoid hitting Qorin and Denys with kills until we're ready to start lynching them. Even if Dale is just desperately grasping at straws to survive remember that we will pretty much always have majority over the Targs (unless everyone left is completely braindead). Even in the case that their third member has a lynch-stop there's a pretty good chance we can inspect it in the next, say, 4 nights.

I am very much against the second lynch as Thoren Smallwood was one of four aliases that voted for billy, and if we lynch him there is now a 1/2 chance to find me. I know no one besides moi agrees with me here though.

If we do lynch Thoren Smallwood then moi we will have to either both vote or both not vote for him. Don't stealth or anything.

 

[moi]

I have literally never talked to you in my life.

 

[shade]

hahahahaha why did i ever stop playing mafia

 

[Da Letter El]

Benefits to letting an ally die (some of this may be repetitive idk):

1. Not putting yourself in a near auto-loss scenario as I outlined above
2. Not revealing your aliases should you attempt to lynch Targ, leaving you vulnerable to being killed at night.
3. Lets you see a bunch of Targ/Highgarden/Throne aliases to kill.
4. You don't rule out Narrow working with you in the future; you just slightly annoy them by not saving them, and if you both make the choice not to save them then you are no worse off in terms of allying with them than the other possible ally faction, so the benefits of "get an ally" are massively overstated.
5. I don't kill you tonight, avoiding the wrath of DLE.
6. I don't feel motivated to try to spread any information about you that I might find.
7. Avoid later game kingmakers with Narrow making that decision for you as you've already made the conscious effort to side with them which gives them a position of power in future lynch negotiations.
8. You avoid the 2v4 scenario I outlined above if you're the only allied team to work with them which pretty much guarantees your death and serves to benefit the enemy between islands/north immensely.
9. Avoids mid to late game scenarios with having a lynch but no neutral third party to mitigate a team who gets too strong. Keeping just main alliance members alive always devolves back into a numbers game.

 

[Yeti]

anyone who wants smart negotiations should speak with me, as i am a smart negotiator

and as the only gril, i am the only one who can king make.

 

[vonFiedler]

So let me get this straight

If any two factions side together in any lynch, out of genuine concern for the 5 kings factions needing to fear a 2 team superfaction, you're gonna form a 4-team super faction.

I mean fuck me, if you think you have any power to do that then why wouldn't you just do it anyway? If you can get me in on this magical group of 4 teams that will totally ignore the need for each member to kill half of the others, I'll do whatever the fuck you want in this lynch.

 

[Da Letter El]

Because I can't form a counter alliance to an alliance that isn't obvious. Voting together here despite the threat "hey I'm going to kill your ally if you vote with them" constitutes an obvious alliance that goes beyond the bounds of "we can ally based on our win conditions". It becomes "we are allying #fuckthehaters"

 

[vonFiedler]

But here's how this is supposed to happen

BOTH of my allies vote with me, because both have more to gain from you dying than me. If people still feel tonight that there are too many Narrow Sea peeps, odds are they'll do something about it. All that changes is a targ gets lynched, and really, why the fuck would be using lynches for anything else? And if both of my allies vote with me, then where's the "obvious alliance"? The only thing obvious is your bullshit.

Honestly the first time you threatened to kill whoever voted with me, I thought you were making fun of Gale. You have a kill tonight. You're gonna use it. You'd have to except us to be the most passive sheepest bunch of mafia pushovers ever to fall for this shit. Personally, I expect a little bit more out of this group.