sorry, I've been coming off a pretty badly interacted combination of amitriptyline + clonazepam + topiramate, which nearly sent me to the psych ward among other things. I'm really sick and since I have to catch up with school myself and my uni transfer apps I can't give this game my full attention atm. At this stage in the game it would be pretty nonsensical and infeasible to sub me out, and subbing in any of the dead players would confirm my alliance to acidphoenix (the only person who questions it, apparently), so I'll play the game out but I cannot stress enough how unwell I am. I also needed a show of hands on all the votes which UTO didn't give (im assuming it's rssp1/celever tho), because we also need to be able to hit majority, realising that 2 votes are the Fire Mafia's and 1 vote is the Ice Mafia's. that being said its more important we hit majority than no lynch, so if
acidphoenix would like to play chicken with me and risk we lynch wrong because village cannot hit majority by ourselves, he well deserves the loss. I am conjecturing AP clearly thinks I am scum but has no hope of convincing anyone except with a nightkill, in which case he thinks he has lost anyway. and he loses if he kills me anyway.
this makes me hesitant to go for a false doctor lynch because of the risk of error: the doctor needs to protect me to force acidphoenix to kill someone who actually has a chance of being the Fire Mafia tomorrow night. although I am starting to think acidphoenix will just intentionally hit town anyway, since there is no legitimate justification for arguing I am FM with anyone, especially as I have rescinded village control as we approach the lynch. I believe both doctor candidates trust me and don't see this as an unreasonable proposition. if we do succeed in lynching the false doctor however and the real doctor protects me, the only unknown element is the remaining Fire Mafia [Celever|PokeguyNXB].
this is something i wrote before my meds got fucked up and its a bit outdated but
The doctor absolutely must protect me tonight. The worst scenario for us, and the scenario the Fire Mafia most likely want (judging from certain questions asked of me in the day which made me suspect they were trying to pick the ideal nightkills), is for acidphoenix and me to die, leaving the doctor alive to pick between PokeguyNXB and Celever. Because everyone has read me as town today, a 2-1 situation with me alive would likely result in a town win (at the very worst mathematically it is the same chance of winning with doctor vs. PGNXB vs. Celever, the doctor would also be confirmed town but both are showing a lack of decisiveness).
The Fire Mafia want acid to kill me, and then they want to kill acid. acid needs to kill the surviving Fire Mafia to have any chance of winning because the Fire Mafia cannot risk acid killing anyone but me and need to kill acid to have any chance of winning. Likewise, acid needs the Fire Mafia eliminated to win. Therefore the doctor should protect me, so that acid cannot target me. acid is then forced to either target the doctor (a suboptimal play in every situation) or one of Celever/PokeguyNXB. If acid targets Celever/PokeguyNXB, it doesn't matter which dies because of process of elimination. If he hits the FM, we win. If he hits the townie, we still win because we know the identity of the FM (it's the one that lives).
Why is targeting the doctor a suboptimal play in every situation? First of all, they're a known element. Secondly, the doctor has no use tonight except to protect a townie. I doubt will be further nights after this (otherwise, only one), so the doctor is simply a confirmed town member. Thirdly, by killing the doctor acid is excluding literally any possibility of hitting Fire Mafia (which he believes he has by hitting me, which is false, and which he has a very good chance of by picking from between Celever and PokeguyNXB). Thus the Fire Mafia get a free hit on him while acid takes out a villager, leaving us in a 2-1 in which he literally cannot win.
So what happens if the Fire Mafia don't kill acid, and instead go for the villager? If acid goes for the villager, there's a very strong chance they crossover and their kills fail, leaving us in a 3-2 situation (we then lynch one, probably acid, and end up in either a 3-1 or 2-1 situation where we win). To avoid this, they need to signal to each other (so make sure to look for any signals they may have already left). The living FM risks being killed by acid, leaving us in a 2-1 in which the FM literally cannot win by virtue of elimination, and we win because we know the IM. Otherwise:
- The Fire Mafia can't kill me, because I'm being protected
- acid doesn't know who the Fire Mafia is, so he has to aim for (PokeguyNXB/Celever), which I already discussed, or the doctor
- The Fire Mafia knows who everyone is:
a) can't kill me, I'm being protected
b) can't kill the doctor, too strong risk of crossfire with acid
c) killing the third townie gives away their identity (or possibly crossfires with acid)
What if acid goes for the villager and the Fire Mafia goes for the doctor? Suboptimal, neither can risk it, and it puts the FM in a worse situation because acid has a good chance of accidentally hitting the remaining FM anyway.
But that will not happen, because the FM must go for the IM (tonight, or else they risk us handing the win to the Ice Mafia / losing to 50-50) to guarantee their win condition. Therefore we should seek to neutralise any likely hits on village from the IM (who has shown themselves to be poor at identifying the FM, judging by the UncleSam kill, or who may just react in hopelessness if we succeed in lynching... literally I can't even figure out who acid thinks is my partner, since I've been willing to lynch literally everyone except him today, which suggests he's put about five minutes of thought into my Day 2 play and is just paranoid again).
The doctor should also consider protecting themselves, those two are the only good plays. It leaves me open, but ensures the survival of an absolutely confirmed town member. The lynch scenarios acidphoenix already outlined so I won't bother to restate them. However my plan accidentally allowed for a very haxxy or signalled 1-1. It is also contingent on being confident in the correct doctor.
however what if we don't go for the doctor because of the even potential risk of killing our real doctor? then real doctor should be able to figure out who to protect I think, I am trusting this to the intelligence of the doctor. im thinking a celever lynch would be very handy, but we can't risk pokeguynxb being one of the last two villagers to be alive. therefore i hate that lynch, since i can't be sure who i should be lynching for the most chances of success (acid's mistake is assigning purely mathematical odds to everything, qualitative data must also be factored in, a 2-1 with jumpluff + the doctors claimant alive is a likelier win than true doctor + fake village [especially contingent on who the true doctor is]). but i think uto + celever as scum is an absurd proposition at this point. knowing celever's flip might actually be more powerful than the doctor's flip since it
can open up literally the entire game's identity. except for me since i'm not tied to anyone (which should be a very strong indication that i'm
not fire mafia, and i can't be the ice mafia, so...) but we'd need to hit the right one whcih is a lot harder. the other problem is celever as town is far less useful than celever as scum flip. ?? input
fwiw I think UTO and PokeguyNXB are the fire mafia, or rssp1 and PokeguyNXB if im wrong about UTO, which is still quite possible, but i do value the ice mafia's read here probably more than anyone's, as well as my read from yesterday and unclesam's and da letter el's, since the im have every incentive to hunt for the fire mafia, even if they've read things very questionably (their accidental villager misfires while aiming for fire mafia may end up at 2 by the end of this game lol). i dont think theres a flip for celever that wont make me disgusted. I think the lynch on rssp1 was distancing ploy. the extreme buddying followed by rssp1's distance looks like clear wifom with an insurance policy. their partnertells are extreme, but very risky for day 3 play as the possibility of a celever lynch is very real. im still considering it actually. I don't agree that UTO's claim was scummy, I think his attempt to paint PGNXB as the doctor was questionable, but celever's response to it made celever look sooooo bad that I'm not sure. but this is what i wanted to point out about UTO
I doubt he would do this with pokeguy since pokeguy has been acting antidoctor (dont know how else to put it) and would not ask the same thing otherwise.
this is extremely weird since UTO attempted to, depending how you see it, paint pokeguy (stealth fire mafia) as the doctor without implicating themselves, at the start of the day, which is a very oddly certain play for someone who flip-flopped between scumreads very quickly, i understand the rationale of wanting to bluff and disguise someone else as the doctor and even bait out a false claim, but it seemed rather calculated to me, since pokeguy was indeed acting antidoctor. the way UTO reacted to celever struck me as having full certainty of who everyone in the game was. and the only people who know that are the fire mafia. this is also the problem i had with celever's play, which muddies it a bit. if UTO and pgnxb are the fire mafia and celever demands a cc then it only leaves rssp as doctor, since apparently nobody really considered the possibility
i was baiting. i hope this does at least exclude for acid the idea that celever and i might be fire mafia together, or uto and i. but rssp1 has also done something bizarre that i will write about later in its own section.
the nightkills are unfortunate, since they're about equally weighted in terms of why didn't the doctor block them. i know what happened if rssp1 is the doctor, if uto is the doctor i assume uto protected me instead of yeti anticipating a higher rate of success and figuring people would just assume the doctor obeyed sam's request for protection. the mafias killed assuming unclesam or i would be protected, which is important, i think, but it's not weighted fully either way. you see, rssp1 is the only player who would be likely to not consider protecting unclesam or me as of day 2. obviously we can exclude the possibility fire mafia thought i was ice mafia because i pushed dle lynch at the end over a uto lynch.
say we lynch pokeguynxb.
if pokeguynxb is town then what does that mean? well then we're at 2-2-1 which is not great, but we still have the doctor, and we know celever is scum, in which case we know almost to a certainty the real doctor.
if celever is town then what does that mean? we know pokeguynxb is scum which doesn't implicate a partner as strongly, and we can't assume the real doctor as certainly, although we can probably conclude it's rssp since i believe pgnxb was sincere about who he wanted to lynch.
i dont know, i genuinely dont have all the answers and im really not well, like im getting nauseated sitting at the computer.
are all lynch options as viable?
well acid is determined to no lynch. and so we need fire mafia to hit majority. which means if we lynch fire mafia they can block it. in which case
acidphoenix can switch his vote because we will have a confirmed fire mafia lynch which is better than him for no lynch i think?
if he refuses to lynch then i dont know. i dont think we can get 4 votes on rssp1. which worries me a bit because again we need a fire mafia vote here so if we can't get it suggests fire mafia. if uto is town we have guaranteed 4 votes because celever is not uto's partner. if uto is scum then we can only get 3. pokeguynxb and celever are interesting cases because i believe certain person lied about their willingness to lynch one of them. the ice mafia might be more predisposed to vote here, but the potential village mislynch is too disastrous a possibility for it to happen i think. in which case identical logic applies, the fire mafia will not bus today so only 3 town votes will be placed (possibly less if the doctor is wrong, but the doctor knows we need to hit majority, and im not sure if the doctors can agree on a candidate not themeslves or acidphoenix to lynch, lol), but the fire mafia may hold back hammering to have acid hammer instead.
so im not sure what to do without full knowledge of where people are willing to place their votes.
ive already written quite a lot about celever and celever apparently didnt consider it worth his notice and neither did anyone else
thoughts on players
i think pokeguynxb's contributions today have been the most actually neutral other than mine, but could heavily be due to hesitance to implicate himself and UTO. he's already on record multiple times as saying he believes UTO is the real doctor. and the thing is its far more plausible than
Celever is giving it credit because walrein did the exact same mafia/doc thing as ultras/rssp did over two players.
and i think we do need to look at walrein, which nobody is doing in depth because walrein made a whole lot of nothing posts, which as i noted was hugely scummy. i already made a huge post about walrein. but i mean specifically analysiing partners, weighting it for the time. walrein consistently scumread pokeguynxb which wasnt a bold stance, it is ltierally equal doctor or equal pokeguynxb's partner. but i believe somebody made the point about
this post where lesser prio scumreads is something scum will do for their partner (? did i misread that post, maybe they meant the other scum). ofc ice mafia and fire mafia are hunting for each other. but can you really justify celever + walrein or celever + uto? nah i cannot see it, they have been aggressive towards each other the entire game without giving each others outs or reprieves, and it is not onesided, it is dual-sided and over both iterations of $player['Hannahh'].
but lets reexamine the post i made about walrein and see how it holds up now we've had three flips since and the reveal of acid as dle's ice king. while there was a strong analysis of walrein as basically outing himself as scum, a lot of it was predicated on a relationship between DLE and walrein.
citation but it became blatantly obvious over the day that DLE and UTO were not allied, and it is now proven impossible. everything else i read about walrein sounds like a self-conscious doctor as much as weak and disengaged scum play. and walrein is a super self-conscious player, so idk.
i read pokeguynxb as a townier version of acidphoenix, but my assessment of acid's play was proven correct and pgnxb subbed back into the game, which for the exact same reasons i suggested acid was mafia suggests pgnxb is mafia, its not a very useful meta read either way. so we have this weird situation where pokeguynxb is essentially a negative identity and as ive stated before that suits the fire mafia perfectly and could be a very deliberate strategy. nobody will comment on anything i say about celever so i cant develop my thoughts further. im still reading the rssp1 vs. uto argument looking for anything thats pertinent. celever is whining about activity but refuses to even try to engage with either uto or me and i dont know how much leash i can give celever there for stubborn play and not just being really obnoxious scum, sorry. but we know celever has to be town if pgnxb is mafia. so you see the problem i have.
rssp1 and pokeguynxb
one thought i keep coming back to is rssp1's post asking celever to claim, which has a number of circular paradoxes. specifically the line 'looks like celever'sgoing to be lynched today'. no input on whether celever should be lynched or not, no defence of celever, nothing that could tie him to celever, no attempt to save celever, no asking people to hold their horses (whereas i went absolutely apeshit as soon as i woke up and saw people lynching that early in the day).
rssp1 explain? what do you all make of this? to me that looks like rssp1 possibly allowing a mislynch intentionally. but that is only possible in that scenario if rssp1 is pgnxb's partner (or mine technically, ironically that'd actually be more plausible because as i stated what made me lower my suspicion of rssp1 + pgnxb was rssp1 trying to get a doctor claim out of celever), because otherwise he's bussing his own partner on day 3. yet how can a townie be so uninvested in the lynch, especially on a player he reads as town? if rssp1 is the real doctor and celever is really town then celever cannot false claim doctor without dying (and at this time we had no claim from UTO), so it doesn't look like a very safe move, the only thing it does is eliminate one of the possibilities where celever can be scum. and if rssp1 is the real doctor and truly reads celever so strongly as town as he testified himself above that post (page 36 for reference) then what is he doing to stop this disaster from happening, especially since at the time uto and i were on record as anti-celever? so is celever just playing really weirdly or is it rssp + pokeguynxb fire mafia? if it's rssp + celever we know they were attempting to get each other to claim doctor, that is the only way rssp can be certain in that situation. i can go on and on explaining all the spirals of this situation but you can figure it out yourself probably.
also ??? at pokeguynxb's yelling at acidphoenix over the lynch thing because
and i believe hammer is 4 votes currently?
from the celever vote but like he gains nothing from pretending not to know what hammer is there so i think pgnxb just genuinely forgot.
wishy washy long post i know but im REALLY SICK and also tired of writing big posts only to have them ignored (hi celever hi celever hi celever HI CELEVER) and then people request my presence, when i have study commitments and serious life issues and have contributed almost consistently throughout all of them. and i just want to get this lynch over and done with, but so much hangs on it for the town that i'm incredibly anxious, especially because i can't just judge everyone by how well they're playing.
tl;dr i want people to help me figure out the best possible lynch and also to comment on the things i've said about them in this post (whcih i accept is hard to read, its fucking hard to write and has taken me hours) or in my long post on monday (late sunday for most of you people prolly) about celever and pgnxb. i think pgnxb is probably likely to be among the fire mafia based on elimination + partnertells + clear good cop/bad cop pattern of play from the fire mafia (i believe that one fire mafia is trying to stay hidden to avoid acid's kill in which case that would point to pgnxb more than celever) but celever's scumminess is overwhelming and celever can't ever make a sensible case for him to be town. which i find to be weird because rssp1 can do it, uto can do it, i can do it. it makes celever look like a scapegoat but what the fuck is up with celever.
