NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

[jumpluff]

Also same with the questions, I've mostly been reading this thread on my phone/iPad in bed so it's possible I noticed something directed at me but didn't have the wherewithal to reply to it at the time and then forgot. If anyone wants me to talk about something/I forgot, remind me.

 

[jumpluff]

Also, in saying that, I don't want to elaborate on any possible night strategy until we're lynching for reals. Anyone who starts talking about protection or kills before we lynch will be interpreted as signalling by me. I think my strategy is optimal regardless of signals, but lacking signals certainly strengthens it. I think we all know lynching the false doctor is optimal regardless of what happens in the night. Going back to bed tho.

 

[Wayan Vistar]

Hmm... looking back through the thread i still believe rssp is more likely to be Celever's partner than UTO, but not by a lot, because why the hell would Celever bus his partner in a situation like this? Although it could VERY easily be some extremely risky wifom which is why i'm only slightly inclined this way. Also i feel the connections between Celever and rssp are much stronger than the ones between Celever and UTO after reading back a bit (rssp's constant insistance on TRing Celever, Celever's "IF he's town he's doc" fiasco, seriously it's the little things that get you when you know for nearly 100% someone's scum)

 

[jumpluff]

I saw rssp1 asked me a question. I started typing up an answer at the time and then it got deleted lol. Well, idk... Celever clearly comes across as scummier, but has a stronger presence so that's kind of obvious. PGNXB subbing back in kinda screwed up my read on him, which was never really solid anyway. The only really clean scenario where Celever can be mafia is where he's partner with you, and in that case he's playing very, very, very, very recklessly. Unless he thought his lynch on you at the start of the day (when it would never be carried) was subtle. PGNXB could plausibly be mafia with you or UTO, and refuses to play his hand. It's extremely bold and aggressive play, which I wouldn't put past him, but it's sincere play. What I do not like about it is that it was slippery and evasive beforehand, but has suddenly become committal despite the lack of breathing room for it. I know Celever and I are different people, but compare it to me, for example: I played extremely aggressively on Day 2, got a mafia lynched, and now am reserving my judgment because it's LYLO.

Celever's play towards UTO has been consistent whereas his play towards you has been inconsistent, which I would consider positive for you both, but today is Day 3 and it is possible that Celever is simply taking refuge in audacity / has overestimated my willingness to lynch UTO and is now stuck committing to that playstyle (because anything else would give the game away, wouldn't it?)

I find it interesting that Celever is equally happy to lynch PGNXB and UTO, but cannot make a case on PGNXB (as I cannot) because PGNXB doesn't post much. (Part of this is just PGNXB naturally being afraid of getting things wrong, but it would suit a mafia PGNXB very well.) This makes sense from both a town and scum Celever. If Celever is scum with you then either of those lynches are achievable autowins. If Celever is town, PGNXB is confirmed scum to him and he apparently received some sort of divine transmission about UTO. (Who do you pray to, Celever? Can I convert?)

What I like about Celever's play is that he's not really trying to people-please like he was before. He's quit dodging my questions for the most part. Before he was playing obsequiously (and to his own admission, afraid of experienced, dominant players despite being experienced himself, which is why I suspected him of sucking up to UncleSam and trying to avoid my attention) and it reeked of mafia trying to find friends and mislynch. However, he knows that's why I was attacking him, so...

I find it odd that PGNXB is primarily interacting with acid, who is the Ice Mafia, and not the town. These would be very safe posts for a stealthy mafia to make, because everyone knows the object is scum already. The longer he goes without adding thoughts about UTO and rssp1, the scummier I have to consider him. I don't want him to just pick a side, I know he's afraid of getting the wrong one, so am I. I want him to explain his thoughts about each side and why he ultimately can't find anything scummy. I don't so much want conclusions so much as I want reasons, stream of consciousness, raw and honest thought dump. Celever is also refusing to provide this, but he answers when I ask, which is something. This is the exact same shit I called you out for, being unable to find anything noteworthy about DLE and UTO (from your PoV, both of these players are mafia).

Now I want to point out this post (#901, btw I got #1000 in this thread LOL) by Celever.

sorry I didn't really read it indepth before posting. Mostly I feel that when Celever's post said "real doctor cc", it was implying that he wanted his partner, who was rssp1 to cc even though he knew he wasn't doctor; I think he knew that if we got organized we would probably win the game. I doubt he would do this with pokeguy since pokeguy has been acting antidoctor (dont know how else to put it) and would not ask the same thing otherwise.

This is an extremely salient point (with something very fascinating contained within btw, but we're discussing Celever/PGNXB) and to my knowledge (point me if I'm wrong), Celever has never refuted it. His response was:

I just don't believe that you're doc. You claimed in an incredibly scummy way.

which has not been articulated, which prevents me from providing my full thoughts on the doctor claims because I refuse to allow Celever to mimic me on a couple of things I want to say at a later date. Now I'm gonna be fair to Celever here, and it's possible Celever has actually explicitly said this and I forgot, in which case Celever can just say that and I'll apologise and whatever. It's possible that Celever meant the incredibly scummy way was offering to post their role details, which were publicly available in the signup thread which UTO claimed to not have read (one of Celever or UTO may have slipped though, because the generic villager PM doesn't contain the details from the signup thread. Actually both of them could've slipped and UTO is doctor and Celever is Fire Mafia and so they both know what power role PMs look like :p the only person we can trust in that situation is acidphoenix, and who knows if the PMs all follow a consistent format). Here's the potential slip I'm referring to. I thought this point was fairly flimsy and since Celever continued to reiterate the scumminess of the claim I assumed they were separate. They may not have been. But if they were then why would Celever pursue that point against UTO so aggressively

Town should never be so certain. You yourself believe this, you eventually came to believe I was town in most reasonable scenarios, but you rightly said that without a cop and a flip nothing is confirmed. You've seen my logic process at work because I show my working when I post, you know that I don't jump to conclusions. I don't expect Celever to post essays like me, I expect him to post like he normally does (short and sweet, good post analysis, concise summary of ideas) and elaborate on anything important. And the #1 thing I have found suspicious this game is people who seem to be statically pushing agendas and not reacting to new information. Celever's swap from lynching you to refusing to believe UTO (especially after your exchange about doctor) screams that the first lynch was insincere or not intended to be carried and potentially a distancing move, which is how I have pondered it before.

jumpluff I'm town. I have no idea how you could possibly think that I'm partners with rssp1 given that I'm trying to lynch him. That would be pretty awful play.

Not if you're bluffing at the literal start of the day.

And it's weird because Celever was like 'rssp1 has been playing like a power role' when it's been established well in the UTO vs. rssp1 argument that rssp1 has been playing the opposite of TIK and UltrasPlot.

In this, PGNXB's natural hesitance (while wearing out its welcome) rings truer of a town thought process, but it's also very personally authentic and cannot be read purely as town (by which I mean PGNXB, if Fire Mafia, can't afford to commit to the wrong side -- if he sticks up for UTO it cements the rssp1/Celever vs. PokeguyNXB/UTO shit that's going on and risks him getting outed if they don't win today, if he sticks up for rssp1 could it be that he would lose his partner, UTO?). I have a feeling that if PGNXB and UTO are the Fire Mafia, they agreed to continue the pattern of play where UTO would play on the defensive as the voice of reason (because UTO's contributions have been mostly good, which is why I stuck up for him in the first place) and PGNXB/sunny would try to stay ambiguous, underestimated, and out of sight. In fact, mafia UTO pretending PGNXB is the doctor makes as much sense as town (and thus doctor) UTO pretending PGNXB is the doctor in this vein. But UTO clearly signalled that they knew the doctor at the start of the day, whether it was to shield PGNXB and UTO saw PGNXB wasn't going to catch on or because they were attempting to bait out PGNXB, we will see.

Finally we have the nightkills. I don't believe it was the doctor claimant necessarily who wanted Yeti dead, and it may not have even been personal, because neither rssp1 or UTO had a reason to go after Yeti except for a safe town kill. I was right about the nightkills before, so let's run with it a little more. The Yeti kill demonstrated competence and a similar modus operandi to the ButteredToast kill (not giving much information because of lack of partnertells/consensus views, likely to hit around the doctor). Was there a possible motive for the ButteredToast kill now acid has stated twice the Spiffy kill was his and DLE's (which I fully believe), outside of this seemingly specific victim profiling (only two data points, etc.)? Not really IMO, BT never said anything. PGNXB doesn't care who dies. His hypothetical partner (probably UTO) does. The people they want dead most (other than US, who died at the hands of the Ice Mafia) survived the night.

Meanwhile Celever has reacted weirdly to the nightkills both times. DLE lied about the Spiffy kill, which I called out (and was proven right, etc. etc. I told you so), but we know that Celever isn't DLE's partner, so Celever can't be responsible for the Spiffy kill, which makes sense. In the same post he said:

If I had to say one kill target it'd be Walrein. He's generally thought of as town, especially yesterday, but at the same time he hadn't actually said much, and there were few very concrete reads. I guess ButteredToast fits under this too, but Walrein came to mind first.

I think this is a very plausible comment from someone who would kill Yeti, even though she had said plenty and had reads, because it's an essential admission, 'well, yeah, there's plenty of reason I would've done the ButteredToast kill'.

This time both of you came from the PoV of assuming the nightkills were dumb, which confounded me and struck me as an attempt to obfuscate what went down, because they were very Bad News for me but not very surprising. But then we had acid claim responsibility for the Spiffy and UncleSam kills (idk if I agree with the reasoning behind the US kill, but there's no reason to reject it, and the Spiffy kill was very clearly DLE's). Celever kept trying to argue acid probably killed Yeti. Why? Well, either because fsr he genuinely believed acid would lie about the kill (which was possible and why I requested reconfirmation), or because he knows who killed whom and knows his team killed Yeti and wanted to cover it up ... and if that's the case, his team is rssp1/Celever, in which case Yeti is an excellent kill for them, because I was town to null-reading rssp1 and UncleSam was vehemently defending rssp1, whereas Yeti was going after him. But Celever gains nothing from making this argument unless he genuinely believes it, so idk.

Admittedly the sentence was incoherent in the first place

Let's not forget that if we're to believe acid the Fire Mafia killed Yeti last night I think. This is definitely more likely to be acid.

but Celever kept backing it up with arguments about activity prodding so... I assume Celever was genuinely arguing what I've been refuting.

I'm not sure how much I believe it. I think that the real doc should cc.

Also I'd say that rssp1 and UTO is the likeliest. UTO and Pokeguy is possible in some way, but only if rssp1 is the true doc or something.

This might be a surprising conclusion for you, but I still think (including for reasons unstated) PokeguyNXB has a reasonable chance of being the Fire Mafia villager, but I have to go do that post separately basically and it's harder because there's less actual meat to pick at. I just can't commit to it and so my response to that is to articulate all the thoughts I have on Celever in the hopes someone might help my thinking along.

I'd finally like to note that DLE wanted to lynch Celever and UTO the most, and was deflecting suspicion onto me in what I see as primarily a defensive move (this game is 2v1 after all), I will need this point later and don't wanna forget it so yea. Some of this is undoubtedly out of date sorry but like this took mammoth effort from me :(

 

[jumpluff]

I need to know who PokeguyNXB wants to lynch most at this stage other than Celever. We know you don't have all the information if you're town so you shouldn't have any problem stating that...

also PokeguyNXB you're correct except that Celever's bus on rssp1 was never going to be carried to majority at the start of the day so it was actually an extremely safe WIFOM. Its extremely likely this day would go long enough that Celever would get the chance to back down from lynching rssp1. Also that was an insightful post so I will return with some PGNXB analysis soontm. Thanks for reading back.

 

[acidphoenix]

Overall I think rssp1 is doc, because Walrein / UTO had been acting slightly scummy this game, as well as rssp1, but TIK / Ultra'sPlot were both playing in a highly town way.

Can someone please explain how the hell it's GG if we lynch a villager/doctor? As far as I see, if we lynch real doc, it becomes 1v2, so a 33.3% chance to win, and if we lynch real villy, it becomes doc+villy v maf, and since the villy is clear a 50% chance to win.

 

[acidphoenix]

*gg town

I've already explained why it's gg I lose.

 

[jumpluff]

I explained it before but the fire mafia needs 50% of the votes and an eliminated ice mafia to win. If we lynch villager it becomes 2 town 1 ice 2 fire. To get both facets of their win condition all they have to do is kill you.

 

[jumpluff]

And in that situation we lose anyway we are just kingmakers. The only way we can prolong the game is having doctor protect you. which only makes sense if we want to give you the win. Then it's 2-1-1 or 1-1-2 depending on your kill. The former is kingmaker for the village and the latter is autowin for the Fire Mafia because they have 50% votes and prevent the lynch infinitely until they get a kill off, so they cannot be prevented from winning (and the WC specifically allows for situations where the WC is not technically fulfilled but cannot be blocked)

hth

 

[Wayan Vistar]

jumpluff i was refering to if UTO were actually Celever's partner and his insistance on rssp being real doc was actually true, in which case yeah, this is a risky play, only making me suspect rssp as Celever's partner more, as i chalk such a scenario up to my usual paranoia with this game.

Even though this plays into the whole UTO is my partner if i'm scum thing, i do believe he's more likely the real doc, but as always i'm unsure, as Celever and UTO still isn't completely out of the question... but it does mean Celever is playing a stupidily risky game at this stage

 

[acidphoenix]

why would you protect me

also, if you don't protect me, since when is 2v1 autowin for Fire?

 

[acidphoenix]

also, 1v1v2 is "nl and hope neither mafia gives the other the win," and frankly I'd rather town win than Fire. Maybe Fire would rather me win than town, but if they'd rather town win, town wins.

 

[jumpluff]

I agree that is the correct play for 2-1-1, and have factored it into my plans, although I consider it a very, very unlikely chance of town win, and it's the only way we don't outright lose if we lynch a villager (if we lynch the false doctor, we have the highest chance to win, but it does risk an autoloss, because if we lynch the true doctor the FM win cannot be prevented even in theory by protecting you, although if you kill them at identical priority presumably they will not have 50% control and we end up in one of those scenarios anyway, so the game then technically has to play out at least one more day).

I intend on rerunning the numbers tomorrow when I'm at my computer again, although I am factoring qualitative data into this as well, because you brought up something I forgot actually, and thank you for that (there are two kills in 1-1-2, so you're right there, it's not autowin for FM, the nights actually have to play out if the lynch is blocked, otherwise the lynch decides or the kills do as you described).

Also I wasn't suggesting we protect you, just pointing out how in that situation that is literally the only way to prevent an autowin (unless FM go for town knowing this).

 

[jumpluff]

So yeah no literal end-of-day auto loss assuming kills work as understood.

 

[jumpluff]

Wait I'm fucking stupid, sorry, I hate these meds. We can't protect you if we mislynch the true doctor which was my original point. Therefore the only thing that prevents the FM autowin thereafter is you hitting one of them at night. So it may actually be suboptimal to lynch the false doctor but only numerically. Lynching one of celever/pgnxb might be correct in terms of night kill potential. We risk getting wiped out if we mislynch there though and finding the false doctor is far easier. I'll think and return tomorrow.

 

[jumpluff]

A useful thing while I sleep would be for everyone to post (not vote lol) who they want to lynch out of

1. uto/rssp
2. pgnxb/celever/me

 

[jumpluff]

fwiw my current choices would be 1. uto 2. pgnxb

but not willing to lynch yet let alone commit.

 

[jumpluff]

ok os it virtually doesnt matter whether we attempt to lynch false doctor or not, its qualitative and we should just attempt the safest lynch possible. what matters is acids kill/favour/precision and the mafia being fully aware of each other and the town knowing who is scum. there is one more scenario if we don't touch the doctors where village has a possibility of winning but it requires a successful doctor block and something i was already aware of but its pure wifom. more importantly which is what iwas concerned about in my original plan was: lynching between pokéguynxb / celever is probably the only way to avoid the 2-1 situation where the surviving townie is forced to lynch between them (because if we hit our own doctor acid's safest fire kill is the doctor we didn't lynch). i don't know if i misunderstood acidphoenix's post but i think that is the worst lynch scenario possible for the town because while pokéguynxb and celever know how each other stands, whoever is left (real doctor or me) has to pick between them, which is going to be a lot harder in true lylo than picking between the doctors (numerically we have a 50% chance in the lynch regardless do we not, or was that 1/3 factoring in my survival acidphoenix, in which case it's always 50% fmpov but knowing whether people want to actually lynch me other than acid is important here). acid's only chance of winning in the event of a mislynch still seems to be to hit the fire mafia and/or hope the fire mafia don't hit him.

none of myo riginal plan was wrong for the doctor pretender lynch, its just comparing it to the townie pretender lynch which is slightly altered its inferior. i dont know though because im super sleep deprived and sick etc. etc. etc. and i could've missed somethinggggggg i really want thoughts on this i will post all the situations tomorrow if you guys want. because like i pointed out before acid and i have the least information (and acid is technically right in that i technically have more than him because i know i'm a villager 100% but pragmatically we have the same odds on a coin toss lynch).

i apologise for my bad arithmetic acid and in retrospect i have underestimated the way you have stepped up today. props.

also while i'm making ten posts in a row i just wanna say that i want to win and have been aiming for a situation in which our win is most surefire always but i wouldn't begrudge any of the living players the win since a lot of these scenarios are technically indeterminate, this is a really fun game for me and i hope we can play again together, even if i have to go on showdown again lol (games would be shorter)

 

[Celever]

A useful thing while I sleep would be for everyone to post (not vote lol) who they want to lynch out of

1. uto/rssp
2. pgnxb/celever/me

As if you needed any confirmation on this:
1. UTO
2. PokeguyNXB

Not that that was exactly up in the air for me anyway lol.

I read most of your big post about me and Pokeguy 5~6 hours ago and I feel like there was more I wanted to say, but I just scanned it again and I don't really see anything I want to talk about besides this quote now... If there's something you think I should talk about could you point it out for me please? >~<

And it's weird because Celever was like 'rssp1 has been playing like a power role' when it's been established well in the UTO vs. rssp1 argument that rssp1 has been playing the opposite of TIK and UltrasPlot.

I feel like you were a little mistaken here. What I've been trying to say is that TIK's short time in the game really wasn't indicative of any alignment. Ultras' play was EXTREMELY mafia, but rssp1's play was pretty doc. They were the same player spot, so I was town between it being a really strong mafia read but also maybe being the doc. I was hoping at the very least keeping pressure up on rssp1 would make him slip at some point.

 

[acidphoenix]

I want to lynch pluff

But seriously I'd rather lynch 1. UTO / 2. PokeguyNXB.

I have no chance of not getting targeted unless Fire is complete idiots. If Fire doesn't kill me if a town dies tonight then Fire lost themself the game.

And yes, that 33.3% was factoring in the possibility you are scum.
Also btw I have already signaled basically everything that needs to be signaled, no point in delaying night strat discussion.

Here I'll go ahead and say what happens with each lynch too

nl
I aim for Fire
Fire either hits me or a townie
possible scenarios:(ice listed, then fire, then town)
I miss Fire and hit Town, Fire hits me
0v2v2, gg Fire
I hit Fire, Fire hits me
0v1v3, GL
I hit doc target, Fire hits me
0v2v3 GL(you'll need it)
I hit Town, Fire hits doc target
1v2v2 :(((((( Fire has a small chance to not win iff we have a doc
I hit Fire, Fire hits doc target
1v1v3 50/50 between you two
I hit same as Fire
1v2v3 well here we are again, it's always such a pleasure
I hit Town, Fire hits other Town
1v2v1 gg fire
I hit doc target, Fire hits Town
1v2v2 see above
I hit Fire, Fire hits town
1v1v2 :( this kind of kingmaker saks
tl;dr don't NL
we lynch doc
I kill Fire, Fire kills me
0v1v2 gl town
I kill Fire, Fire doesn't kill me and kills town
1v1v1 nobody likes kingmakers
I kill Fire, Fire hits doc targets
1v1v2 see directly above
why the hell would i not kill Fire
tl;dr 33.3% win chance, 50% with 100% clearpluff in existence
we lynch fake doc
optimal strategy is Fire kills real doc, I kill villy
I accidentally hit Fire town wins
I hit doc target
1v1v2 nobody likes kingmakers
I hit villy
1v1v1 nobody likes kingmakers
..this is a lot more annoying when I actually spell it out
we lynch villager
Fire kills me I kill Fire ofc
if scumpluff gg Fire
else 1v1v2 what have i said about kingmakers
we lynch fake villager
both of us try to make someone dead
possibles are 0, 1, and 2 deaths
with 1 or 2 deaths one could be Fire
if a Fire dies gg town
also it might be death of 1 town + one me or 0 town + one me
1 town + 1 me is 0v1v2 gl town, 50% winrate
0 town + 1 me is 0v1v3 which has p. much the same winrate
If 0 deaths then it's 1v1v3 and town almost certainly wins
If 1 death then it's 1v1v2 and KINGMAKERS ARE HORRIBLE STILL :(
If 2 death then it's 1v1v1 have I mentioned I hate kingmakers yet
note that this means that fire mafia will kill me if we kill the fake villy
on that note can we please kill fake doctor like seriously please

to recap:
nl is confusing
lynching fake doc is kingmaker time with probable townwin
lynching real doc is 33.3% townwin 66.6% Fire win
lynching fake villy is 50% townwin 50% fire win
lynching real villy is either gg Fire Mafia jumpluff or kingmaker time with probable townwin

Basically, since we probably won't lynch pluff no matter what in the end, and doc stops mattering when it's 1v3 and who wins is determined by whether you guess the DOC claim and lynch them, lynching the fake doc is functionally equivalent to real villy, except that it's superior for stopping scumpluff. same goes for fake villy v. real doc

And which one of them is better depends on whether you more trust your ability to guess scum or you more trust that Fire would rather town win than me.

tl;dr Fire Mafia please hand me the game, the only difference between lynching fake and real is scumpluff

 

[acidphoenix]

on that note, I no longer have any desire to lynch Pokeguy.

 

[acidphoenix]

(because I autolose if we lynch fake villy)

 

[Wayan Vistar]

My answer is 1. rssp, 2. Celever, although i'm not all that confident in 1

 

[acidphoenix]

I think UTO is the scum-fake doc, and I don't want to auto lose like we would if we lynched village, so

Lynch U-Turn Out

 

[acidphoenix]

Also, I just thought about the fact that the scumpluff point is invalid if we lynch towards village because lynching fake villy won't happen.

We are lynching doc, nobody who isn't Fire mafia wants us to not lynch towards doc.