I just don't believe that you're doc. You claimed in an incredibly scummy way.
And yes, you did read the signups post because IIRC you know the faction details when you subbed in. The OP of this thread literally has no info.
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2023 Smog Awards!
NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.
- Thread starter The Diabolic Gift
- Start date
- Status
And yes, you did read the signups post because IIRC you know the faction details when you subbed in. The OP of this thread literally has no info.
how is it a scummy way when people were asking for the claim?
and I have no idea what you are talking about for the faction details? Of course I would read through this thread and find the setup, I just never read through the signup thread
Okay so I wanted to run that question by UTO first and see if I could solidify anything I already wrote here... so here's the post:
By the way, we have now had all of the game weigh on the lynch as it stands and I would like to expand upon a comment I made earlier about the vote PokeguyNXB made.
Celever voted rssp1 at the start of the lynch
PokeguyNXB and acid voted Celever
Neither rssp1 nor UTO voted Celever
I didn't vote Celever obviously and demanded the votes be retracted
Celever was never at L-1, but rssp1 and UTO could've put him there (and if they were the Fire Mafia together, just put both their votes down for hammer... they're both competent, so we can exclude that rssp1 and UTO are Fire Mafia, unless they didn't realise they threw away an almost instant win, but they're also both playing cautiously, so it's not 100%, not that anything here is). We know the Ice Mafia vote was on Celever, meaning there was only one town vote needed for the Fire Mafia to straight up win the game assuming they can do basic arithmetic. We can remove my vote from consideration, it's town, but you can apply the same reasoning to my reaction to the lynch if you stiiiill think there's any chance in hell I'm one of the FM. So the important votes are PokeguyNXB, UTO, rssp1. (Celever can't vote himself here, but it's also important.) An important note is that UTO went after me and so if UTO is Fire Mafia they're very unlikely to keep pushing for the hammer after my post.
Logical conclusions:
1. Only one town vote on a non-Fire Mafia is needed in the case of Ice Mafia voting in order for the Fire Mafia to win the day
2. The lynch didn't conclude, so there was no town vote on a non-Fire Mafia, and Ice Mafia is accounted for
3. PokeguyNXB and/or Celever is Fire Mafia (personally I suspect it is just one of these, that's a pretty serious gambit on PGNXB's part if they're FM with Celever)
4. If Celever is Fire Mafia, the Fire Mafia will not vote yes on that lynch, in which case PokeguyNXB is probably town (unless, as above, super super risky bus that made no sense because there was the potential of me or the other townies deciding we agreed with it)
5. If PokeguyNXB is Fire Mafia, a town vote was needed before his partner could safely hammer without outing themselves, in which case his partner is one of rssp1/UTO, and from that we can't determine which it is:
I suspect rssp1 there signalling to Celever to claim doctor but it's not proof either way since he was correct that doctor needs to out themselves and the post can thus be read at face value as well. If this was the intention Celever also didn't pick up on it or likelier decided it was a bad idea. There's other possibilities behind that signal too, not all of which I want to specify right now, but basically from that alone we can't prove Celever and rssp1 are allied AND Fire Mafia.
Alternatively, rssp1 is partner with PokeguyNXB, but in that case the behaviour is contradictory since it draws Celever's attention to a potential lifeline and the lynch being rushed on them, and rssp1 has to know I'm not going to lay down a vote just like that (and UTO expressly stated they wouldn't when I fished for opinions about Celever/rssp1, and the way that lynch went down also makes the idea of rssp1 and UTO partners pretty unlikely, since if rssp1 knew he could count on UTO be on later to vote only an extremely cautious rssp1 would not lay down L-1). Otherwise, rssp1 is either covering for PGNXB's mistake or waiting for me or UTO to come to the conclusion we should add more votes. But we know rssp1 probably thinks they should play cautiously here, see #882. So nothing about this is definite, we cannot rule out that rssp1 is PokeguyNXB's partner because rssp1 went second, but it's quite unlikely IMO. We can probably even further rule out that UTO and rssp1 are partners, although there's a slight possibility they've been distancing today. (So: we rule out UTO + rssp1 = Fire Mafia, we lower the likelihood of PokeguyNXB + rssp1 = Fire Mafia.)
UTO (and technically me because everyone believes I'm town, but whatever) has the most leverage in that situation, but that's quite a bold move to falseclaim doctor first (we'll see, there are some people I'd be more inclined to believe than others who cc, but at this stage only two people have neither denied being the doctor nor claimed to be it). Basically UTO has seen rssp1 not vote and can then continue to refuse to vote because they know they can't carry the lynch without rssp1 (because obviously I'm not going to hammer or L-1 it based off my play yesterday and my post stating I want the votes removed). UTO can claim doctor so rssp1 can vote and then UTO can vote, but risks the possibility of cc and derailing the train entirely, so not a sensible move given that it relies on timing.
So to return to solid logic: we have the possibility that rssp1 and UTO are the Fire Mafia together potentially eliminated based off this lynch and everything else that happened today (either can still be one of the FMs). But what is really important is that fact in conjunction with that fact PokeguyNXB and Celever being partners is probably impossible, I'd sure hate to get owned for making such a bold statement but there it is.
So I conjecture it's likely that PokeguyNXB is town unless they're UTO's partner, which is possible but would mean Celever and rssp1 are both town. Which is all to the good since this scenario has the most likely outcome that Celever is Fire Mafia because PokeguyNXB is town, with the secondary outcome being the contrapositive, that PokeguyNXB is not town (and therefore Fire Mafia) because Celever is not Fire Mafia. And the partnertelling between UTO and PGNXB is strong today, when it counts most. But it works in reverse too between town members, there's way less wiggle room to hide what you think of other players so that's why it counts... There's only one thing I don't like here and that's Celever and rssp1 being allied, I think it's murkier than I initially stated when I was fishing.
Either way, this is long but basically being able to eliminate PokeguyNXB and Celever being allied is very powerful, especially with knowledge of the doctor and Ice Mafia. Everything hinges on the doctor's identity. Ignoring acidphoenix and me, here are the permutations of Fire Mafia:
PokeguyNXB, Celever = impossible
PokeguyNXB, rssp1 = not likely
U-Turn Out, rssp1 = not likely
PokeguyNXB, U-Turn Out = possible
Celever, U-Turn Out = possible
Celever, rssp1 = possible
The only tricky one here is Celever + U-Turn Out (otherwise it's just PGNXB + UTO vs. Celever + rssp1), which I think we can probably lower based on every other thing they've done today except this lynch, but if they were Fire Mafia, it'd mean PokeguyNXB and rssp1 were both town, which is possible. I did also suspect this scumteam D2, so idk. The thing is all my earlier candidates for rssp1's partner are ruled out but I can't rule out the possibility based on today's stuff entirely. Please let me know if I've missed something.
Also just use fingers of suspicion or declare who you'd like to lynch, no need to place actual votes until we all agree to, you risk way too much.
---
UTO and Celever pls continue to have this conversation tho, it's pretty important.
By the way, we have now had all of the game weigh on the lynch as it stands and I would like to expand upon a comment I made earlier about the vote PokeguyNXB made.
Celever voted rssp1 at the start of the lynch
PokeguyNXB and acid voted Celever
Neither rssp1 nor UTO voted Celever
I didn't vote Celever obviously and demanded the votes be retracted
Celever was never at L-1, but rssp1 and UTO could've put him there (and if they were the Fire Mafia together, just put both their votes down for hammer... they're both competent, so we can exclude that rssp1 and UTO are Fire Mafia, unless they didn't realise they threw away an almost instant win, but they're also both playing cautiously, so it's not 100%, not that anything here is). We know the Ice Mafia vote was on Celever, meaning there was only one town vote needed for the Fire Mafia to straight up win the game assuming they can do basic arithmetic. We can remove my vote from consideration, it's town, but you can apply the same reasoning to my reaction to the lynch if you stiiiill think there's any chance in hell I'm one of the FM. So the important votes are PokeguyNXB, UTO, rssp1. (Celever can't vote himself here, but it's also important.) An important note is that UTO went after me and so if UTO is Fire Mafia they're very unlikely to keep pushing for the hammer after my post.
Logical conclusions:
1. Only one town vote on a non-Fire Mafia is needed in the case of Ice Mafia voting in order for the Fire Mafia to win the day
2. The lynch didn't conclude, so there was no town vote on a non-Fire Mafia, and Ice Mafia is accounted for
3. PokeguyNXB and/or Celever is Fire Mafia (personally I suspect it is just one of these, that's a pretty serious gambit on PGNXB's part if they're FM with Celever)
4. If Celever is Fire Mafia, the Fire Mafia will not vote yes on that lynch, in which case PokeguyNXB is probably town (unless, as above, super super risky bus that made no sense because there was the potential of me or the other townies deciding we agreed with it)
5. If PokeguyNXB is Fire Mafia, a town vote was needed before his partner could safely hammer without outing themselves, in which case his partner is one of rssp1/UTO, and from that we can't determine which it is:
I suspect rssp1 there signalling to Celever to claim doctor but it's not proof either way since he was correct that doctor needs to out themselves and the post can thus be read at face value as well. If this was the intention Celever also didn't pick up on it or likelier decided it was a bad idea. There's other possibilities behind that signal too, not all of which I want to specify right now, but basically from that alone we can't prove Celever and rssp1 are allied AND Fire Mafia.
Alternatively, rssp1 is partner with PokeguyNXB, but in that case the behaviour is contradictory since it draws Celever's attention to a potential lifeline and the lynch being rushed on them, and rssp1 has to know I'm not going to lay down a vote just like that (and UTO expressly stated they wouldn't when I fished for opinions about Celever/rssp1, and the way that lynch went down also makes the idea of rssp1 and UTO partners pretty unlikely, since if rssp1 knew he could count on UTO be on later to vote only an extremely cautious rssp1 would not lay down L-1). Otherwise, rssp1 is either covering for PGNXB's mistake or waiting for me or UTO to come to the conclusion we should add more votes. But we know rssp1 probably thinks they should play cautiously here, see #882. So nothing about this is definite, we cannot rule out that rssp1 is PokeguyNXB's partner because rssp1 went second, but it's quite unlikely IMO. We can probably even further rule out that UTO and rssp1 are partners, although there's a slight possibility they've been distancing today. (So: we rule out UTO + rssp1 = Fire Mafia, we lower the likelihood of PokeguyNXB + rssp1 = Fire Mafia.)
UTO (and technically me because everyone believes I'm town, but whatever) has the most leverage in that situation, but that's quite a bold move to falseclaim doctor first (we'll see, there are some people I'd be more inclined to believe than others who cc, but at this stage only two people have neither denied being the doctor nor claimed to be it). Basically UTO has seen rssp1 not vote and can then continue to refuse to vote because they know they can't carry the lynch without rssp1 (because obviously I'm not going to hammer or L-1 it based off my play yesterday and my post stating I want the votes removed). UTO can claim doctor so rssp1 can vote and then UTO can vote, but risks the possibility of cc and derailing the train entirely, so not a sensible move given that it relies on timing.
So to return to solid logic: we have the possibility that rssp1 and UTO are the Fire Mafia together potentially eliminated based off this lynch and everything else that happened today (either can still be one of the FMs). But what is really important is that fact in conjunction with that fact PokeguyNXB and Celever being partners is probably impossible, I'd sure hate to get owned for making such a bold statement but there it is.
So I conjecture it's likely that PokeguyNXB is town unless they're UTO's partner, which is possible but would mean Celever and rssp1 are both town. Which is all to the good since this scenario has the most likely outcome that Celever is Fire Mafia because PokeguyNXB is town, with the secondary outcome being the contrapositive, that PokeguyNXB is not town (and therefore Fire Mafia) because Celever is not Fire Mafia. And the partnertelling between UTO and PGNXB is strong today, when it counts most. But it works in reverse too between town members, there's way less wiggle room to hide what you think of other players so that's why it counts... There's only one thing I don't like here and that's Celever and rssp1 being allied, I think it's murkier than I initially stated when I was fishing.
Either way, this is long but basically being able to eliminate PokeguyNXB and Celever being allied is very powerful, especially with knowledge of the doctor and Ice Mafia. Everything hinges on the doctor's identity. Ignoring acidphoenix and me, here are the permutations of Fire Mafia:
PokeguyNXB, Celever = impossible
PokeguyNXB, rssp1 = not likely
U-Turn Out, rssp1 = not likely
PokeguyNXB, U-Turn Out = possible
Celever, U-Turn Out = possible
Celever, rssp1 = possible
The only tricky one here is Celever + U-Turn Out (otherwise it's just PGNXB + UTO vs. Celever + rssp1), which I think we can probably lower based on every other thing they've done today except this lynch, but if they were Fire Mafia, it'd mean PokeguyNXB and rssp1 were both town, which is possible. I did also suspect this scumteam D2, so idk. The thing is all my earlier candidates for rssp1's partner are ruled out but I can't rule out the possibility based on today's stuff entirely. Please let me know if I've missed something.
Also just use fingers of suspicion or declare who you'd like to lynch, no need to place actual votes until we all agree to, you risk way too much.
---
UTO and Celever pls continue to have this conversation tho, it's pretty important.
The fact you claimed isn't scummy, it's how you did it. You obviously read the sign ups OP (you would have definitely learned the setup from the signups thread. You never asked about setup details or anything, and any sane person would without seeing definitive host confirmation. The only other possible thing would be that you're mafia anyway, so the claim has sorta fucked you over either way. You shouldn't have claimed in that way. If there's no cc I guess it could be a mistake, but right now I'm not buying it.
Also I'd say that rssp1 and UTO is the likeliest. UTO and Pokeguy is possible in some way, but only if rssp1 is the true doc or something.
Yeah, I figured UTO wasn't the right one. And I totally had a docread on rssp1, which was part of the reason why.
\o/ I was right for once wooh! \o/
\o/ I was right for once wooh! \o/
I guess. I still think it's odd that he would be totally certain about factions if he really idn't read the signups thread OP like he claimed though. He didn't really slip, it was just his general tone.
I should clarify. I thought that rssp1 was either doc or mafia, but I was more confident he was mafia for the whole game. When UTO claimed mafia I thought that put the chances of rssp1 being mafia down a bit since if either of the two was going to claim doc I think it would have been rssp1. As such I thought that I might have been wrong this whole game and rssp1 is the real town. Looks like that... uh... happened Dx I didn't have a big docread on anyone else so if rssp1 really is town I thought that the doc would be him. I was just confident enough in my scumread on him that I tunnelled. Plus I didn't really docread Ultras, that was totally a scumread.
Also i don't like how jumpluff seemed to immediately accept that UTO was doc without hearing from everyone in the game... and given that i'm almost certain that Celever is town (although the last two posts seem a lot like backtracking/trying to save face), i'm thinking jumpluff could actually be the last fire maf and pokeguy is town... but that's not 100%.
????? what are you trying to pull????????? Are you actually suggesting jumpluff is scum????? and the way you say "100%" not something like "unlikely" or "almost impossible" means that you still think this is somewhat likely and that jumpluff is actually scum? Someone help me
So you've been pushing a rssp1 lynch for two days, but you still think he could be town at the same time? And UltrasPlot and rssp1 are the same person, if you scumread ultra it would carry on to rssp1, this wouldn't change, especially when after the argument you had with me changed to rssp1, still saying he was the scummiest. There was no chance of him being lynched, and the sudden change makes you two look even more likely as partners. You also just said above that rssp1 and UTO is the likeliest scumteam, then change your mind because he claimed doc?
yeah thats solid evidence
I never check the PM, since after looking over it once I assumed it was for votecounts, and I can do those in my head with 9 people
Nice change of tone UTO, being incredibly calm in almost every manner previously, and yet for some reason responding aggressively to anyone who disputes you today.
Also you seem to be annoyed at there being no evidence for me being doc, but might I ask: what evidence do you have to be doc?
I'm not saying "haha i laughed at you and thats my evidence" im laughing at the fact that you've cc'd me because I know a definite scum.
What i'm suggesting is that my townread on jumpluff is weaker, and i'm allotting the possibility that s/he could be scum with you.
Also it would make literally no sense for us to be scumteamed if we cc each other.... but maybe you weren't thinking about that.
Also you seem to be annoyed at there being no evidence for me being doc, but might I ask: what evidence do you have to be doc?
I'm not saying "haha i laughed at you and thats my evidence" im laughing at the fact that you've cc'd me because I know a definite scum.
What i'm suggesting is that my townread on jumpluff is weaker, and i'm allotting the possibility that s/he could be scum with you.
looks like ya missed that buddy. Nice try.
Also it would make literally no sense for us to be scumteamed if we cc each other.... but maybe you weren't thinking about that.
Reading comprehension, rssp1, at no point did I ever assume either of you was the doctor in anything I said, in fact I implicitly allowed for it in my major post (that you were doctor attempting to bait Celever into proving he's scum). If anything it's more alarming Celever assumed you were the doctor. Why was Celever hunting for the doctor? Also, Celever said if you were the doc then UTO couldn't be your partner. Stop lashing out pls and try to figure out who the other Fire Mafia is from your pov, it's imperative we know both so that acid can hit the other one tonight with accuracy.
I also called you to the thread to request you claim or not claim. Why do you keep obsessing over whether I'm mafia when it is literally the most irrelevant discussion we could be having at this point. Yeti and DLE flipping the way they did essentially cleared me more than any other information you can get except my death (which is good way to lose!).
I need the rest of the village to be thinking logically and numerically no matter what happens because we have the information to work logically and if I die you will need it.
No further comment on the UTO vs. rssp situation for now, it was inevitable it would come to this I guess and I've been thinking about it enough already. More discussion would be good. I have to commute to see a doctor.
I also called you to the thread to request you claim or not claim. Why do you keep obsessing over whether I'm mafia when it is literally the most irrelevant discussion we could be having at this point. Yeti and DLE flipping the way they did essentially cleared me more than any other information you can get except my death (which is good way to lose!).
I need the rest of the village to be thinking logically and numerically no matter what happens because we have the information to work logically and if I die you will need it.
No further comment on the UTO vs. rssp situation for now, it was inevitable it would come to this I guess and I've been thinking about it enough already. More discussion would be good. I have to commute to see a doctor.
Pokeguy's thoughts are necessary here also ok bye. PokeguyNXB who do you think are the Fire Mafia now if you had to stake the game on it. Or just give the best guess. Think about who's allied not just who comes across as scummy. Remember you can eliminate acidphoenix unless you are the Ice Mafia
I saw this post as you accepting UTO as doc, sorry.
and well, i missed the part where you explicitly asked me to claim if I was doc because... as expected, I only skimmed that post.
I also don't really see how the Yeti/US flip cleans you unless you're stating that they were your only scumpartners, something with which I disagree, since at a certain skill level you can bus teammates or distance teammates well enough that you're not linked to them. Don't read this as me accusing you as scum, read it as me stating that I disagree that a flip automatically cleans someone (unless it's like, a cop that has a clean inspect in a theme with no godfathers or psychotroopers) and that i'm still looking at you as a possible suspect for being the last fire mafia, whether it is a waste of my time or not.
I'll try to figure out a possible scumpartner for UTO, but i'll be doing that later (don't say this is a stalling post, i've already proven I actually follow up and once again I will, i just dont have the energy to look back and figure out something like that right now)
I know that Ultras and rssp1 are the same role, this is most of the reason why I was still pushing rssp1, like I said in that post if you read it properly. Ultras really couldn't have been scummier which made me pretty certain that rssp1 had to be mafia too. However, as a whole rssp1 acted pretty towny and I couldn't find much dirt on him, but I did find a couple things which made me think he might be the doc. This could still have ben him preparing himself to cc later on though, trying to play like the doc up until that point to make things more believable. I just said that I thought IF he is town he is also doc.
UTO jumpluff literally gave you an out here. If you didn't see faction details through the PM and you didn't see them through the sign ups OP you couldn't possibly have known them for sure unless you were mafia; they're not in the OP of this thread, only in the OP of the sign ups.
Honestly I shouldn't be too annoyed, but school just started and I just don't need to deal with a fake doc claim on top of all the work. I may not have evidence, but I'm at least trying to contribute while you're just talking about the problems with your connections with Celever without even trying to change them or really try to make a case. I'm actually putting some effort into my posts instead of laughing hahahaha and not posting anything else. And you were the one who cced me, not I cced you. Also, I know a definite scum, it's you! And about jumpluff, it really seems like you haven't really read the thread carefully. Almost everything points to jumpluff being town, and I have no idea why you would think otherwise. If you want to actually make a case about it, please don't, it'll be a waste of our time.
There are three options for people being my scumpartner. jumpluff (you already established this), Celever (who is somehow very towny), and PokeguyNXB (the only real option you havent considered already). I'm sorry if I'm doing exactly what you don't want, but I don't find this behavior helpful to the town or truthful at all. And for the last time, there is NO point in trying to build a case for jumpluff being mafia. Your best buddy Celever can tell you that as well. But I guess I'll have to make a short summary for you to not waste your time. I don't know if you know this or not, but jumpluff subbed in knowing Yeti's alliance. I doubt the host would have made jumpluff scum when Yeti was town (town/town would have been more likely, but still a terrible error from our host). US and Yeti both had extremely solid town reads on jumpluff, making her look very clean. On top of that, 100% of her posts have been helpful to town. I think I've covered enough already.
Do you think that would give you a pass when the exact same thing happened with me and Walrein? And you've been seeing nothing scummy with rssp1? He's not trying to buddy you? He's not making baseless arguments? Alright. And what's this about me? If I say I'm doc, it's impossible that I'm telling the truth and rssp1 could be lying?
How would me being mafia make any difference in knowing the doctor stuff? All I would know is knowledge of the scumteams. Nothing about the doctor at all.
Nah I didn't ask you explicitly, I just highlighted you and asked you to weigh in on the events of the last page. 'Cause saying 'RSSP1 DO YOU COUNTERCLAIM' would be a bit whack. If you didn't claim and weren't doctor it would be the best outcome possible but that is not how it is so yeah. Need to chew on it some more.
Also I agree it doesn't 100% clear me, but I think other than acidphoenix my towniness is the most set in stone at this point, which is why I do not bother factoring it into conversation (because I can take it for granted, and everyone except you agrees that I must be town afaik, so it vastly simplifies it). The Yeti flip clears me a lot because while the only other person I could be reasonably suspected of being scum with (UTO) is alive, Yeti was the likeliest town partner for me. I don't know if you're aware of this, we talked about it in the Day 2 PM, but I wasn't supposed to be subbed into the game because I knew Yeti's alliance from talking to her about the game before I decided I wanted to play. So I asked TDG not to sub me in unless Yeti was out of play, because it wouldn't be fair. And I'm addressing this now because I don't have a problem with any play I have made and want to get it out of the way if that allows you to give clearer input on the town, since UTO already has me as confirmed!town along with the other players.
They missed that part of my PM and subbed me in (as you can see with the PGNXB thing, this is a recurrent problem...), so I was stuck in this place where I can never say explicitly, 'Yeti is town', because that's basically cheating. I couldn't sub out because the game needed players and I now knew Cancerous's alliance ('cause, you know, it's mine), so that was the best we could do. So I had to talk kinda implicitly around Yeti a lot. Basically if Yeti was scum it was almost guaranteed I was her partner though and that was a prevailing theory people had (especially UncleSam, who was similarly concerned I had pulled off a super great heist by playing to my town meta very 'convincingly', i.e. actually playing very towny in a way US/Yeti/Da Letter El have seen me play before because we've played games before together), that I was not telling the truth about the substitution and that Yeti had requested a sub for her partner and I'd offered to, because I'd shown no interest in playing the game before, being busy. But the fact that I just never questioned Yeti and blatantly flaunted that I believed her and that my alliance was tied to her was the most I could do that was 'fair', other than make the more objective case that she was very likely town, which I did in my reads post. So Yeti flipping town made it likelier already that I was town, especially since she had a very strong townread on me. I'll say flat out that that made Yeti the best kill for me if I were mafia wanting to hit village, because I 100% knew her alliance and it wouldn't give people much information but would make me look cleaner (so, WIFOM), and all I would have to do would be play around the protect, but it's not the only thing that makes me look clean.
I also correctly pinned down the Ice Mafia (which still leaves open the technical possibility I'm Fire Mafia, yes) and lynched them yesterday, numerically making me likelier to be clean as well as psychologically, but the fact of the matter is I wasn't going to lynch DLE until Yeti came back and said she didn't read UTO as obvscum like I did, and I knew we could definitely get majority on DLE with her vote. I was afraid DLE was the doctor, and playing scummy to avoid detection, and assumed that he would at least claim it to try to bait out the real doctor, but the fact he didn't meant I was 100% solid in my scumread. But at that time I was oscillating between lynching acidphoenix (the other Ice Mafia) and U-Turn Out (the person you think is my Fire Mafia partner) and at most points in the lynch more willing to drive majority onto UTO. I think that shows honest town play as well as correctly identifying at least one of the Fire Mafia (I doubt it's PGNXB, but if you [rssp1] are the real doctor indeed then that means PokeguyNXB or Celever is the other Fire Mafia from where I'm standing, which puts a lot more shadiness onto PGNXB) and being willing to lynch them when it would put us in a bad situation if we were indeed partnered (being one mafia down while the other is at 2/2 is NOT a remotely sensible risk and I'm competent enough to know that), as well as always being honest about my intentions towards UTO, suggests that my read is sincere. So I think the case that I'm Fire Mafia with UTO is pretty weak, especially since I never made any attempts to distance myself from them, agreeing and disagreeing with them based on logic and analysis rather than covering my tracks when needed to pacify e.g. UncleSam. And that is, from your PoV, literally all you need to exclude the possibility that I'm Fire Mafia, because from where you're standing UTO has to be one of them. But for the others, it's also blatantly unjustifiable that I would be Celever's partner given the amount of nonstop pressure I've placed on them and attempts to drag them into scrutiny over and over, and then one of UTO and rssp1 has to be town + whoever the person thinking is + then you pick between me and Celever or me and PokeguyNXB depending on whether you are PokeguyNXB or Celever.
UncleSam also strongly read me as town unless I was partnered with Yeti, and I do believe the reads of dead town matter, especially when they're known to be competent players (UncleSam and Yeti are some of the best players we have in Circus Maximus and I believe they demonstrated over and over again in the game that they were competent beside their reputation), which is why I'm not acting as aggressively towards you today even before you claimed doctor (UncleSam defended you very heavily), because I'm stuck with two very different scenarios with LYLO implications. All aggression towards you has been secondary to aggression towards Celever.
Hope that helps you, I'm not worried about stalling right now so much as people thinking this through very carefully, at the end of the day we must be confident who both Fire Mafia are so that we a) lynch correctly and don't lose b) acidphoenix kills the right person. (If acidphoenix kills village, make sure you all lynch him. If I'm around, I certainly will. Him killing Fire Mafia still has the possibility of his winning due to kingmaker or majority while it is also how we can win, so it strikes me as the fairest thing to do, since him killing village forces us into kingmaker, in which case it will be patently obvious who is the Fire Mafia, and there's no way we should allow someone to win for refusing to cooperate with us and forcing us into a lose position. It's like Survivor, basically. If you force me to lose, you risk me making you lose too.) So, if that's how you think, allow for the possibility, but at least take my arguments into account in how you consider both me and how people have reacted to me. That being said, it's a huge waste of my time if you can't float a scenario where I'm town, so yea. Since I'm town you should be able to do it.
Reminder to PokeguyNXB that, if you're town, we need you to think through and offer your thoughts here, particularly on UTO vs. rssp1 but also who is likely to be their partner if they're Fire Mafia. We just need your opinion and for it to have been reasoned as best as you can and for you to explain your thoughts, you don't have to be 100% right (although that would be nice), but we need all of the town to have weighed in.
This is my concern also. UTO and rssp1 both played in a way that telegraphed they were the doctor. Today they both made at least one post that strongly signalled they were the doctor as well. Originally I identified it as UTO (especially since rssp1 hadn't made any of the signals that I was aware of at the time), similarly to how I had acidphoenix pegged as Ice Mafia almost to certainty but had a secondary distant allowance for PokeguyNXB. My primary concern is that, so close to lynch yesterday, UTO didn't claim doctor yesterday when UncleSam and I both had votes on them (we removed our votes together after a UTO post), which, if they're doctor, is very very very lucky for them, but could've been catastrophic. At the time majority was 5 and sunny (PokeguyNXB again) also had a vote on them, so they were at L-2, and UTO read all of us as town afaik (or at least me and I THINK US, meaning that there were guaranteed to be 2-3 mafia votes around assuming UTO's reads were anything approximating right), meaning that they were in very serious danger, from their perspective, of being hammered by any two of the four mafia.
(U-Turn Out willing to hear you out here, I haven't decided who I think is the doctor at all.)
However, rssp1 just straight up refused to read or lynch DLE or UTO until it was obviously necessary due to majority (and UncleSam threatening them), which is really weird behaviour. Was right on the money with acidphoenix, but you know... acidphoenix is Ice Mafia.
Specifically today both of them telegraphed that they were the doctor before claiming. As far as 'untangling this mess' goes, the worst outcome for me was one of them claiming and the other ccing the other, because I would be more inclined to believe UTO over you [Celever], for example, and more inclined to believe PokeguyNXB over UTO, but the village was wedged between UTO/rssp1 and Celever/PokeguyNXB before in my evaluation.
If any of you have ever signalled you are doctor, or made a post that suggested implicitly or explicitly you were or had knowledge of the doctor, please go back through your posts and link or quote. Mainly directed at U-Turn Out and rssp1 but anyone else is free to as well and might be useful.
Also be fair, Celever, UTO said they saw the PM and then just never checked it. The only things about the F/I mafia that aren't in the PM were the win conditions for each mafia and their lack of immunity to nightkills. (And, I suppose, the fact that their kills fail if they target the same people.)
However,U-Turn Out said:
UTO, how does this prove you are not mafia? I dont think that's an actual answer to Celever's point...U-Turn Out said:
Actually what you say is buddying by rssp1 I see as towny play. He's going with his own reads as opposed to following the trends of the consensus which is a trap a few mafia get into when trying to cause lynches. And no, I don't think his arguments are particularly baseless.
And I've felt that rssp1 might be the doc for a while; I haven't seen anything hinting at you being doc. And how you claimed was really lackluster.
Also like jumpluff said in the above post, you didn't answer my point at all.
jumpluff, I have a question for you. It seems like right now the players are split as you = town, then the scum teams are comprised of Celever/Pokeguy and UTO/rssp1. Assume that UTO flips mafia, which of me and Pokeguy do you think you're likeliest to lynch tomorrow do you think? Assume that rssp1 flips mafia and answer the same question. I just sort of want to gauge your opinions on me and Pokeguy right now.
I think that a major post which makes me think rssp1 is town is when rssp1 tried to bait me into claiming doc (I saw it at the time too lol. Not the most subtle thing in the world, but I'm vanillager so it wouldn't have worked had I not noticed anyway).
Right you are. I think I must've misread it the first time as he never checked the PM at all, not that he checked it once and then not again after that.
I'll respond to this later (probably tmrw, school sucks) along with my previous posts regarding the doctor situation, but what I understood from Celever's point was that if I were mafia I would know the setup, while if I were town I wouldn't. I have stated that being mafia wouldn't give me knowledge of the setup, which makes his point invalid. As I said before, I followed this thread a while ago, so the knowledge probably came from one of the posts (I cant really remember, I'll try to find something if you want but I'm pretty sure that's how the knowledge came. Not the best response, but it's the truth
Also to Celever: I forgot to mention that you voted rssp1 at the beginning of the day with invalid logic but with strong confidence. Care to elaborate on how he suddenly turned into a doc read?
also I'll just answer quickly that she said it was literally impossible for me to be on a scum team with rssp1, the scumteams she described were UTO/Pokeguy, Celever/rssp1, Celever/UTO
- Status