NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN

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aight looks like I was right about haruno being town, but honestly I didn't think he'd be shot this soon. I'd thought it'd be during d3/4, where he'd hopefully give more of a shit towards who to shoot. and definitely not d1: the sequel (which is basically where we'll be for the whole game imo. the discussion topics are still going through the same cycle)

Townreads/leaning town(no particular order):
Haruno- duh.
Flyhn- more of a gut read honestly, but he seems pretty honest in most of his posts. contributing stuff at least. Nais going on the shub read anyways.
AG- same as flyhn. doesn't let discussion stall in one place atm.
Josh- town lean. by now you should know anyone whos doing productive stuff is cool imo. I'd think that the true scum would be busy pseudo-lynching and turning attention away from them.
Me- Real life sucks, and it keeps me busy enough that I generally post during early morning or from afternoon to night. I'll probably make three unasked posts on a good day. I also understand I'll seem super hyprocital in this entire post, but its what I see, and thats the end of it.

Neutral:
Hitmonleet, Asek, Twin- This is where the new player part comes into play. I'm not really sure what they normally do in NOCs, but they don't stick out as scummy, so neutral.
Moody, DBW, DLE, Jalmont- Risen from the dead, so I'll just wait and see.
Empoof- Redeemed. There's less baseless reads and random mememing so yeah.
US- Can't quite get a read on him, since there's not many posts to go by. This should change as time goes on.

Scummy/leaning scum:
Yeti and FH- Both just retaliate at anyone who FoS them. Don't contribute much in terms of discussion.
 
Also speaking of gamesolving, this game design seems really silly. Don't we just need to find ONE townie and promise never to shoot them and we win?
While this would be great in theory, and:
basically

ergo im fine with this game as long as flyhn is never shot
1) What if Flyhn bussed? To be clear, I'm not suggesting he's guilty, just that we cannot be perfectly certain without defeating the point.
2) We also need to not idle out, because that would be an easy way for Flyhn to be given the gun.

Going back a bit:
personally surprised at how many people think yeti is scum
This, more than any of Yeti's defenses make me think I might be wrong about her. Given both, I still think she's scummy. Just not at the shoot-her-already level.
 
So uh.... thankfully Haruno has either been gone or realized that making his shot in 10 minutes doesn't help town at all.

ok so floaty thoughts before I do organized things:
We should follow the rules mkay.
People seem to think I was pro-haruno before he got the gun? imo it was like of "I think he's a competent player" and not "I think he's town." As I pointed out, he doesn't give a damn about d1 and his unreadability reflects that.
Has anyone been staying hardcore afk/nonexistent?
There seems to be some clear divisions setting themselves up.
If empoof is scum, then he straight-up deserves this win. He'd also be the greatest threat if he is, since damn he is such a big townread lol.

p18:
starts with twilight posting, then haruno gets towncleared + the gun and texas goes home

Flynn complaints that "the more people get shot, the more I have to analyze and also spend time on" and then goes like "keep going".
I kinda disagree with that, because just shots without talking between them doesn't help at all.

AG suggests shooting Yeti or Sam because they're likely to be of the same faction
I'd be down for a Sam shot (I think his reads have been iffy, even if the idea of posting reads lists is great), but I'd definitely let the cycle run a large portion regardless of his alignment, because that in-between discussion feels like it'd be juicy. I'm not yet sold on scum!Yeti.
btw is that how alignment!user works? idgi I'll just use english in the rest of this post

Empoof likes Flynn, then Leet josh and asek in his townblock.
Emproof talks like he's in a chatroom lol, but w.e about that I used to and/or still do the same

ok so I gotta go home, will do the rest of the pages + a readslist later
moving on (I'll format using the indent things, if this bothers you then go eat a raw pineapple)

p19:
so josh agrees with flynn as town and sees yeti as even scummier
I still don't know why Yeti is scummy, even if US was to flip scum.
I would be very, very careful about "If [p1] is [faction], then [p2] is too" type statements because those seem like easy ways to pass things off for scum​

more joking about how Haruno won't listen to us. However, so long as he makes informed decisions and doesn't just rng between the entire playerlist, w.e.
we can affect people's shots later in the game if they let us.​

so they just looked at shubaka's ocnoc record (empoof and josh confuse me for a bit there, but they're talking about shub's record not flynn's)
conclude that Flynn's claim was right based solely on shub's posts in d1​

Empoof sorts his bottom area to have idlers and former at the very bottom

Flynn be like "other people are idling more!"
he proceeds to advocate shooting iDLE because its a scumtell just as shubaka idling was.
I can see us shooting some more idlers at this point in the game, because the active + scumreading townies want to save their guns for later because they want to both be able to talk and affect the game as well as make better-informed shots​

AG suddenly comes out with a townread on Blazade
My read on Blazade so far is null so not much to say there, especially with reasons promised to come.
josh agrees with me apparently​

p20:
AG's readpost:
asek and sam had conflict, which he thinks sam came out scummier on
his read on asek seems to be because asek agrees with AG on both anti-yeti and anti-sam, which seems a tad bit biased as far as reasons to townread a person go

The promised reason for the Blazade shift was apparently just "given what he suggested." it had something to do with shooting shubaka for idling?
I don't see how that reason needed to be witheld, it seems more like he couldn't find anything and just attributed it to shubaka

neutrals empoof because empoof is acting how AG wanted to as scum in a previous game.
that's a decent reason to doubt someone's towniness. Although, we have to consider that mafia is trying to act like town, so if empoof is acting the way AG tried to act, then... ?
As texas said in OCNOC, no player is going to actively change their playstyle from town to mafia.

Uhhhh so neutral on Hitmonleet because gut town? And the fact that postcount is the first thing mentioned in a neutral reads doesn't bode well.

So his scummy reads on me, former, and US are all because of not posting enough and yet posting enough to not be an idler.
He even mentions that his previous reason to scumread me (pro-haruno) was wrong, but now keeps me as scummy for not posting. lol

his scumread on Twin actually has gameplay-reasons behind his scumminess, which is great
they're not terrible reasons, but I really cba checking if his claims are true.

AG strongly suggests shooting idlers; his entire scum block is just idlers
OK, after shubaka, maybe that's a good idea. But maybe he was the designated idler for the mafia team? idk that sounded stupid even in my head but I'll put it out there because the idea existed, and 100% saying > not saying

Oh wait there's someone in an even scummier block: Yeti. Who is there for buddying sam, which is the next-lowest non-idler on the list.
Just makes me wonder tf they're going if they are mafia buddying each other. Correct me if I misunderstand mafia theory, but isn't buddying supposed to be targeted at town?

conclusion: AG puts waaaaay too much emphasis on "low activity = scum". His entire post has good reasons about a total of 3 people. The rest of it is basically derived from their activity levels. Just because shubaka idling = scum doesn't mean every idler is a scum and that low activity means scum.

I don't even agree that US is semi-idling; his posts, while infrequent, have been big and full of discussable things. That's forum mafia for some people. In fact, I agree with his statement in one of his bigposts that his 1 post will generate and feed more discussion than 15 1-liners
This is not to say that I necesarily think he's town, but rather that I don't think he's semi-idling just because he's not being empoof and playing like we're in a chatroom
k so the next important thing is former's analysis of the shubaka flip
Former finds US and Yeti to be towny
He disregards the idea of bussing and goes straight to "backstabbing".

Empoof is called into question because of vague association from shubaka.
I can get behind that, though he's still a townread for me.

this pro-us/pro-yeti thing of former's starts to make me see a connection?
Of the three, I think that FH -> US -> Yeti from scummiest to towniest.
On a scale of scumblock to scumread to neutral to townread to townblock, I'd put FH and US in my scumread list and Yeti in my townread list.
Reason I bring that up here is partially because he completely misrepresents me there; my statement in no way defended shubaka: it was an attack on UncleSam for contradicting himself, a contradiction that I pointed out amongst the several contradictions he made in that post.

I'm not quite fond of the fact that former calls out josh for making a truthful statement. Admittedly josh's position kinda does defend shubaka, but it seems more like its intended to attack than defend? idrk, so w.e won't read from this

Former also calls out hitmonleet for a single oddity and claims there are more, which I kinda agree with.
He's too lazy to find more, but I agree anyways.​

Former looks worse and worse, with conflicts against josh and hitmonleet (the latter of which calls FH out for misinformation)

In that same post, Hitmonleet makes his reads list. I give that list a decent/10, because despite joking around doesn't seem to have overly terrible logic. However, it doesn't have great logic either.
Nor does it hinge completely on activity, which I'll disagree with Leet there that AG's walls are useful.
His reads list's main thing is that its pretty general and most people who are talking are "towny" to him.
More than anything tbh, the list feels kinda hollow. FSR it still gives me a towny feeling though.

p21:
Former vs Hitmonleet escalates
Neither of them seem particularly townie, but I'd peg Hitmonleet as town in Former vs Leet
I highly, highly, HIGHLY doubt that's TvT. MvM is unlikely at that scale, so I guess it's probably MvT​

Former's readslist

Yes yes I'm scummy because I was busy for a day. AG said the same thing so I guess it probably was actually scummy.
ok hitmonleet obviously is a scumread
townreads US, continuing the trend I saw earlier
echoing your thoughts isn't a great reason to townread someone btw
and neither is conflicting reads a great reason for scumreading
a few wishy-washy things, but that's normal in a game with so little information
he tries to jump a haruno-is-town wagon after the fact
Townread on Yeti
A lock town on Flynn.
AG has been making some of the more frequent big posts in the game. Why are you not reading his posts, again?
A scumread on empoof? interesting. I feel like its still because empoof's reads contradict former's.
josh responds aggressively to a scumread
admittedly that read is based on highly flimsy material
I think that's a townsign for calling out bad reasoning

Yeti clarifies that his read on Sam was a "lean town", not a "likely town". He then lists 3 players for poking at the link, and suggests shooting them
this feels like an overreaction to me, and yet it shows esaperation that I think would come more from a townie than scum

He claims that townreads on Flynn are unbased, which is a bit weird but the alternative would be to say that Flynn hard-bussed shubaka's ass to kingdom come d1.

Yeti and Josh get into a fight
not 100% which one of these would be scum. The affair pushes Josh further into town territory, but Yeti also looks townie. ehhhhh something feels off but I'll label it TvT.

------ Ok so this took way longer than I expected. even though I don't go through the rest of the pages, this should be long enough to analyze. I finished p21 at 2:01 am and I'm gonna post first thing in the morning. The thing that struck me most about the rest was this ------

Also speaking of gamesolving, this game design seems really silly. Don't we just need to find ONE townie and promise never to shoot them and we win?
Da Letter El's analysis of the game is exactly right imo. We just need to not idle out (if they give the gun to our "one townie", we're fucked.) We should still continue though, just in case an idler goes away or something.
Also we need to make absolutely 100% sure that our lock town is lock town. There should be no doubt about that whatsoever.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
my list: (TB -> TR -> N -> SR -> SB)


Empoof

Flynn
Josh
Yeti

Hitmonleet
DLE
Jalmont
Blazade
Idlers including the recently-posting winter-delta
Twin

Aura Guardian
UncleSam
Former

[empty]
 
neutrals empoof because empoof is acting how AG wanted to as scum in a previous game.
that's a decent reason to doubt someone's towniness. Although, we have to consider that mafia is trying to act like town, so if empoof is acting the way AG tried to act, then... ?
As texas said in OCNOC, no player is going to actively change their playstyle from town to mafia.
Actually, I meant the part where I gave up on not getting lynched and was trying to bait as much as I could before the charade dropped. Different approach, but different game mechanics, too.
 
Also, I used the terms back stabbing and bussing interchangeably so far in this noc.

Additionally, attacking someone for attacking someone else is, in the end, defending them.

Also I had thought haruno was townish from the first time those shenanigans came up and made a post stating why earlier in the game.
 
Now that their are some more Posts, I'd like to just quickly go over my unknowns:

FCC - After his wall, where he pretty accurately sums up everything, and makes some clear statements and analyzes things quite well and honestly (from my POV at least), this makes me consider them pretty close to locktown.

Asek - Still don't have enough real material to go on, but I personally have a gut townread on him right now. Asek I'd like to see your thoughts/reads, if you don't mind.

Twin - I don't know how to really peg him (I never really can, his play is pretty hard for me to read), so he's currently Absolute Null to me.


iDLE - He did finally post a big wall, but it just... rubs me wrong. I don't know why, but it just doesn't feel right to me. Gut Scum, likely to change.

DWB - You haven't really done anything helpful, and have just kind of vanished. I don't like it. Scumlean.

Jalmont - Literally has done nothing beneficial. Strong Scumlean rn. Jalmont come on man, at least post some reads or smth.

DeathByWobbuffet Thetwinmasters if you don't mind, could you guys at least post a reads thing?
 
It appears that Empoof was serious when he said that he would go play hearthstone for a while. But the conscious, active decision to go inactive makes me cringe.
I'm perfectly fine with that though (who am I to talk with my disappearing b/c of school.)

on that note, this weekend seems like it'll be a busy one for me.
 
there are 6 scum left and you only have 2 in your scum pile?
FH and Yeti are just my best scumreads rn. The bottom half of my neutrals are quite suspicious to me, but I don't have much evidence to back it up.

On that note, I realize I left out FCC in my reads list. TR for now, that's a very useful wall he posted.

I'll iso some people in my neutral list, and see if they should be moved upwards or downwards
 
Now that their are some more Posts, I'd like to just quickly go over my unknowns:

FCC - After his wall, where he pretty accurately sums up everything, and makes some clear statements and analyzes things quite well and honestly (from my POV at least), this makes me consider them pretty close to locktown.

Asek - Still don't have enough real material to go on, but I personally have a gut townread on him right now. Asek I'd like to see your thoughts/reads, if you don't mind.

Twin - I don't know how to really peg him (I never really can, his play is pretty hard for me to read), so he's currently Absolute Null to me.


iDLE - He did finally post a big wall, but it just... rubs me wrong. I don't know why, but it just doesn't feel right to me. Gut Scum, likely to change.

DWB - You haven't really done anything helpful, and have just kind of vanished. I don't like it. Scumlean.

Jalmont - Literally has done nothing beneficial. Strong Scumlean rn. Jalmont come on man, at least post some reads or smth.

DeathByWobbuffet Thetwinmasters if you don't mind, could you guys at least post a reads thing?
Yeti is scum then its fh or sam. If somehow yeti isn't scum then dbw+dle is really obvious scum team imo.
 
Decided to ISO Hitmonleet first, will do more later

Hitmonleet ISO
Start

#21 - confirming
#65 - rule vote
#67 - First major post, theorizing someone from OC NOC would probably give Texas the gun, FoS Haruno and Former Hope
#71 - Says above was an attempt to get some discussion going
#90 - After some points from Fort, UnFoS Former Hope
#110 - Wants clarification on a point from Josh, Town pool of Texas, Fort, Josh, Me, and maybe Moody
#122 - Explains tr on me a bit
#124 - ":-(" at Haruno putting him in shot list
#131 - Says Empoof isn't in town pool due to being a bit all over the place, and not knowing their meta
#184 - Haruno/twin as biggest threats because they're hard to read
#304 - Says Haruno always plays risky in response to winter. Asks Empoof to make an organized post of their thoughts
#331 - Points out Haruno's behavior. At least one of Haruno/Former Hope are scum
#332 - misread, Haruno's completely unhelpful
shubaka is shot
#428 - spicy Play
Haruno gets gun
#434 - shock at Haruno flipping town
#499 - Fos Former Hope. Everyone ordered from Town to Scum(excluding self and gun): Josh, Empoof, Me, AG, Blazade, US, Fort, DBW, Moody, Twin/Asek/winter, Yeti, Dle, Former
#501 - ninja'd by Josh
#505 - Responds to Former, explaining the #67 FoS, and why they're FoS'd now
#507 - #505 bolded
#508 - "Case isn't made of one post"
#512 - Mini-ISO's Former, "tl;dr Former sux"
#529 - Tagging idlers. FoS Da Letter El, town!Me solidified
#541 - One of Former/Josh is scum, leaning Former
#542 - vid
#561 - jalmont raised from the dead!
#577 - haruno town core
#611 - Stronger reads on "unknowns". Given what he says i assume in order. Town to Scum: Fort, Asek, twin, dle, jalmont
#612 - winter still null, gut winter town
Conclusion
After looking more in-depth than i did in my original reads post, Hitmonleet seems a lot more towny than scummy. Their contributions give me a really good town vibe. TOWN
 
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