(2) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (3) Toronto Raptors
“The Trash Bros felt threatened by Portland's performance and wanted to re-establish themselves.”- Anonymous
"Can someone tell me how many more years LeBron will slay the east so that I can hibernate in peace”- crackdup
Here we are again.
This series should be a great test for Cleveland’s defense; they are ranked bottom fifth in pick & roll and transition defense… the type of offense Toronto tends to excel at; however, they are ranked highly in isolations, post-ups, and free-throw attempts given to the opponent.
If Toronto is smart, they will run nothing but screen and rolls all day. Maybe iso if Cleveland relies too much on switching. I will be really impressed if Cleveland doesn’t get even a huge scare from this team. Last year, Frye was a large factor in Cleveland pushing themselves past this Toronto team. Biyombo, while he could rebound amazing well, was a non-factor on offense. Valančiūnas also can’t be expected to stand at the threepoint line. That leaves Toronto’s biggest X-Factor going into this series: Serge Ibaka.
Serge Ibaka is the most versatile player Toronto has received in some time. He’s athletic, notable rim protector, scores outside the paint reliably, and can guard perimeter players. Toronto is just as potentially scary offensively and defensively with three guards, one forward, and Ibaka at center. The question is, is this the type of line-up to put an end to LeBron and four three-point shooters?
I also have to imagine the series certainly won’t start out this way. Tristan Thompson is big, and the only player to really contend with his size is Valančiūnas (who was also mostly absent from last year due to an ankle injury). Valančiūnas’s worth in this series is a large unknown, so it’ll be an interesting size chest match between these two teams. Will Cleveland be the initator in downsizing or will Toronto forever be the reactionary entity?
I suppose there was a sense of maturity in Toronto evident in their last series. They actually closed out without having to go to seven games. Lowry and DeRozan adjusted fairly well for the most part. Ibaka, Tucker, and now Powell are turning out to be major contributors. On the perimeter, they have plenty guys to throw at LeBron (… please just ignore Carrol, Casey..): Ibaka, Tucker, and Patterson. Talent wise, Toronto should be able bother LeBron at least somewhat. PJ Tucker will likely get the lion’ share of minutes, so he
has to make shots to keep LeBron from roaming around passing lanes. Carrol as well. You can’t both fail to guard your position and be a liability.
Can’t exactly say the same about Irving, though. If you run him through more screens, maybe that’ll affect him slightly. Then all that’s left is pretty much Love. He’s not exactly been effective recently, but Ibaka likely the best individual guy match-up wise for him. Irving/Love pick and roll defense has always been a problem for Cleveland, so perhaps Toronto can run them off the floor like Indiana did in game 3.
You know, this series might be more interesting than we realize… but sad to say, LeBron is still on one of these teams and that is an intangible I simply cannot overlook. I will concede to Toronto scaring them with their defensive versatility, their offensive guards and forwards off the dribble, and overall improved depth, but to expect Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka to reliably outshoot LeBron, Irving, and Love still remains to be seen. Cleveland still ranks in relevant areas defensively to keep Toronto at bay (free throws given to opponent, isolation defense), they produce and shoot better from the perimeter overall and their core is more efficient. That pick and roll defense hole still remains, and Toronto out of all teams in the East is primed to take advantage with their competent guard depth.
Cleveland wins if: LeBron’s still generating assists through threes, James/Irving/Love are getting it done, Toronto is being kept off the line, they find a way through all the tough defensive small line-ups of Toronto, Frye > Ibaka in production
Toronto wins if: They get to the line a bunch, Cleveland’s pick and roll defense finally caves in, Irving is a joke defensively, Love is broken down too, Toronto’s guards wreak havoc on Cleveland’s aging roster, Ibaka returns to his Spurskiller days.
Cleveland in seven.
(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (3) Houston Rockets
Mike D’Antoni has been in the playoffs four times. Each time, he was defeated by Popovich and San Antonio. Considering the history of both coaches and their contrasting styles, this match-up is going to be hotter than the last naked body you’ve seen.
San Antonio’s offense against Memphis was very concerning, but then again, Memphis is the type of team to bring the ugliness of your offense out. Perhaps facing Houston will open up some more avenues besides Kawhi isolations. Houston is ranked worse defensively overall.
But San Antonio’s guards and big men will be tested on the defensive end. They will have to defend at the rim, and Parker/Ginobili must contribute. It’s hard to imagine those two contributing in a way where their defense won’t expose the hell out of them. Parker spent a lot of time hiding and struggling last series (but came up big in the final game). This series, San Antonio will have to contend with Beverly, Gordon, and Williams. My gut feeling is that in some games, one of these plugs will leak out and Parker will be exposed for his age. This probably means more time for guys like Green and Leonard.
Beverly is also a pretty interesting match-up for Parker. If Conley gave them all sorts of trouble, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Parker to regress. Beverly in addition to his tenacious defense has added more of an offensive repertoire to give the opposing guard on their toes. If Beverly is causing problems for Parker on both ends, that increases Houston’s chances.
Breaking news: if Gasol is ever in the game at all, he is getting torched. Point blank. San Antonio’s best defensive line-up might involve some weird combination of Dedmon/Lee/Aldridge. Even then, I don’t trust these guys to completely bother Harden on the switch. Maybe I’m being pessimistic here but Gibson and Adams don’t sound too far away in defensive skill if at all by San Antonio’s club. I certainly don’t trust Aldridge to guard somebody like Harden or Gordon on a potential Switch. Houston’s roll men are also dangerously... most notably Nene who was incredibly efficient in the first round. If he’s guarding San Antonio’s post-ups at a decent rate and scoring at the other end, Nene’s going to be a problem for San Antonio.
If Houston’s going to win this series, it will be through the depth of their team. Yes, everything goes through Harden, but they have more capable bodies by a long shot at most positions. A part of me thinks that Kawhi is going to have a tough time trying to stop Harden and create for the team. Last series, he really only had one job. He’ll have two jobs here if Houston plays their cards right and puts pressure on their guards.
If I flip the switch a bit, what Houston will have to worry about is how they will deal with Kawhi. The only capable defender they have is Ariza, so this means Ariza
has to make shots or Kawhi is going to be a terror in passing lanes (sound familiar?). Also, if we go by a straight MVP comparison between Kawhi/Harden, guess who plays both ends of the floor?
Another thing: Does Houston really have what to takes to control the pace of the series? That’s essentially the X-Factor of these two teams as they contrast in styles in every way imaginable. San Antonio is a great rebounding team, a great three-point defensive team, and they know how to get the other team to take their worse shots (most notable for Houston, long twos).
Both of these teams are perfectly even and this should be the most intense series of the second round, but I’m going to tip my leanings towards San Antonio. Admittedly, I was originally leaning Houston, but their ability to control pace is questionable after looking at the first round series. They are still turnover prone (San Antonio is ranked 12th during the regular season), San Antonio has an incredible rebounding rate (Houston is bottom tenth), and they have a two-way MVP (more likely to make a statistical impact). Gotta role with the intangibles.
San Antonio wins if: The pace is a 100 point scoring game or less, Ariza is ineffective in his minutes, San Antonio somehow manages to hide Parker/Ginobili on defense, they’re killing the glass, Houston is taking twos instead of threes or shots in the paint, their transition and paint game are both shut down
Houston wins if: Parker got obliterated in his match-up no matter who he’s guarding, Harden is killing San Antonio’s frontline in switches, Houston’s three-point shooting is alive, Nene is cold-blooded, the pace of the games were just too damn fast.
San Antonio in seven