CAP 13 CAP 2 - Part 3 - Threats Discussion

[jas61292]

Finally, you don't actually even attempt to convince me why we should be so keen to let Hydreigon and Dragonite outright beat CAP 2. Why must we? The Steels do a great job and are quite popular in themselves, but being checked and beaten soundly by the #1 Pokemon in the metagame (Dragonite) is a real killer for the usability of a Pokemon.

Firstly, I definitely would agree that being easily beaten by Dragonite would certainly hurt its viability. However, if there is a way to have it beat Dragonite without also beating Hydreigon, I think that would be the way to go. It is very true that the Steels will be good checks. However, it is also true that with the right move, CAP2 will be able to beat at least one of them, and it is also true that with Magnezone or Dugtrio as partners these guys can be easily removed. As such I think having a counter that is not a steel type. Hydreigon seems to fit right into this role, so I would highly suggest that we avoid giving it an easy way to beat it.

 

[bugmaniacbob]

I never post in these threads the hell am I doing

Anyway, it doesn't strike me as particularly of difficulty that any of the above Pokemon just happen to resist both of Sketchy's STAB moves. After all, the likelihood is that a standard attacker set will be able to, grab hold of all the coverage moves it needs, and thus Fire-type moves for Skarmory and Jirachi, Ground-type moves for Heatran and Jirachi, Fighting-type moves to hit all of them for a bit of damage, or even Ice-type moves to hit Dragonite aren't altogether out of our imagination. And beyond this point, I'm not sure what purpose this thread serves. We have given Sketchy a STAB typing that will inevitably make it come up short against certain Pokemon. I don't believe there are any Pokemon currently in existence that Sketchy couldn't hypothetically beat... but again, 4-slot syndrome and our newly created 1-wildcard syndrome limit the extent to which it can exercise its abilities.

Using Honko's mass damage calculator and assuming a worst-case scenario moveset of Seed Flare/Focus Blast/Blue Flare/Blizzard, though with no investment in SpA, it becomes clear that what can most comfortably stop Sketchy in said ungainable situation are bulky Psychics and Ghosts like Dusclops, Victini, and Deoxys-D... though will not be the case in practice, as Shadow Ball will likely enough be mandatory on all sets, if its movepool is as bleak as it likely will be outside of Sketch. However, interestingly enough it seems that specially defensive Poison-types like Tentacruel and Drapion will likely be quite effective against Sketchy - especially on the special side, which likely will not run Ground-type attacks (though it is, of course, feasible). On the physical side, with a wcs movepool of Power Whip/V-create/Hi Jump Kick/Icicle Crash or Bolt Strike, we have Intimidators like Salamence and Gyarados coming into the fray.

But to get back to the essential point. There are, I believe, two key points that need to absolutely be cleared up here with regard to threats.

1. How fast?

Or, more specifically, "Do we want Sketchy to be faster than Heatran and Dragonite, arguably its two greatest threats, both, one, or neither? I believe that most people are adamant that our friendly neighbourhood ADD Sketch Artist should be below the base 100 benchmark - any higher risks adding too much effectiveness to the basic bulky attacker build. There are only two really serious threats encroaching upon this area - Heatran and Dragonite. How great a threat do we want each of these to pose? Should Dragonite outrun it as well as wall it to heaven and back? Should Heatran be made more of a threat by making it fast enough to outspeed Sketchy?

2. How bulky?

This relates to the potentially contentious part of the "bulky attacker" build - how bulky is bulky? One thing that needs considering for any attacker is its susceptibility to revenge killing. Now, Sketchy is immune to Vacuum Wave, Extremespeed, and Mach Punch, and resists Aqua Jet, so is fairly well-covered on the priority front. Okay, so we have some woe with Bullet Punch and Sucker Punch, but hey, you can't have everything. No, the real worry here comes from the fact that, depending on how fast we eventually make Sketchy, it is going to be in a LOT of trouble from faster stuff trying to crush it. Using Honko's other awesome tool and inputting values for a Grass/Ghost Pokemon of 252 HP EVs and 100/100/100 stats (go go Celebi) we see that stuff like Latios' Choice Specs Draco Meteor is coming close to OHKOing - this makes absolutely no difference by itself, but it is necessary to look back at all the slower characters such as Hydreigon and Haxorus who have more or less free reign as far as revenge-killing is concerned. Put simply, if Sketchy is too slow and doesn't have the bulk to compensate, it will be absolute dead weight on all teams. So how far are we prepared to go? Well, Gyarados in particular seems to manage all right - though this may be due to all the rain floating around. I would honestly advocate defensive stats of about 90/90/90, such that we have a more or less solid base to work off. I'll admit I'm a little anxious about giving Sketchy very, very good base defensive stats, so I'd say that copying an existing, powerful-but-not-broken Pokemon is the way to go. I am honestly finding it more or less impossible to predict what effect this Pokemon will have on the metagame, so... I can't really say any more.

I'd be interested to hear other people's views on the above two questions.

 

[Asylum_Rhapsody]

I think Skarmory, Heatran, and Jirachi are acceptable losses, and things we should not try to overcome in later stages.

Is that necessarily true though? I mean, as we continue creating Sketchy, we'll likely find more places other than typing (such as stats or move pool, even taking Sketch into account) either where it will incidentally end up having additional counters or where we can go out of our way to make sure that it ends up having additional counters, so is it really necessary or wise for us to dictate right now that these typing-based counters should not be overcome by later developments? I want to give specific examples, but I'm afraid that they might be poll-jumping...

 

[Korski]

Based off typing and Sketch alone, the only way we'll be pounding through Dragonite is with an Ice-type Sketch coverage move or (boosted) Hidden Power-Ice. A bulky Tail Glow set or Mixed/Special Shell Smash set can accomplish the latter (depending on stats), and Dragonite may still fear switching into Sacred Fire/WoW/Spore/etc. as has been mentioned, so the threat there may be contained in that "theoretical threat" sort of way. Similar concepts also apply to the Steel types who will wall anti-Dragonite sets; the key will be not giving away the Sketch move too soon.

 

[Scoopapa]

Addressing BugManiacBob's speed question:

Dragonite is going to be a check to sketchmon regardless, so I think outspeeding it is a good idea to at least make it manageable. If sketchmon is running max speed and an Ice move, and can deactivate multiscale, it should be able to OHKO Dragonite (otherwise it's going to be allowing DD or eating a Hurricane which probably means dead sketchmon). Dragonite can still revenge you at perfect health (barring Icicle Spear), and will walk all over sets without an Ice move, but if we want we can beat it. Allowing Dragonite to be too much of a counter to sketchmon will severely limit its success in the metagame by making it a liability. Dragonite is just too dangerous.

This also means that we outspeed Heatran, but I think we should keep in mind that if we're using sketch for coverage then we're not going to have a boosting move, and if we don't sketch a coverage move, one of the two will wall us anyway. Either way, I think it balances out. Specially defensive Heatran might do pretty well against HP Ground Sketchmon, anyway. It isn't going to be OHKOed by HP Ground, at any rate, so it can at least get a Lava Plume off.

Hydregion, on the other hand, is not as dangerous. Letting it be a good counter to sketchmon probably isn't that threatening to the concept and would be a great opportunity for it to shine as different from Latios (who must fear Ghost attacks). I say underspeed Hydregion. If it outspeeds us and doesn't have to worry about any 4x weaknesses, it will be more effective than Dragonite at checking sketchmon.

Going by increments of 5, if we outspeed Dragonite (80) and underspeed Hydregion (97) we are left with 85, 90, and 95 as potential base speeds. I would personally aim at the lowest of these (85) because it adds Roserade as a potential check, something else that is usable but hardly overwhelming.

As for bulk, I think it should focus on the Special side and have only average physical bulk. This is because it is insanely fast for a Shell Smasher, and I think Shadow Sneak and Sucker Punch should 100% wreck it's day if it's used Shell Smash and isn't holding White Herb. We could find a balance where Quiver Dance sets aren't as worried about non-stab Sucker Punch (+1 sketchmon is probably slower than your average scarfer) while Shell Smash sets are. I can see Jellicent-esque defenses working out well.

 

[ShiningFire]

HP Ice and Earth Power look like quick solutions to Heatran and Dragonite, but I think the real problem is going to be the typing itself. With Grass/Ghost, it'll be weak to common sets on some of OU's best pokemon. Of course, Dragonite and Heatran, but there's also Salamence, Hydreigon, Infernape, but the point is, is this thing is going to be Physically offensive and Specially defensive, it more likely than not is gonna be in trouble when any of these pokemon come out. A base speed stat of 100+ may help in the condition that it's Sketched move is probably going to be using Ice or Dragon or it's Hidden Power is most likely going to be one of thiose two. Anyway, what I'm trying to get across is the Dragons in OU are going to hinder our Sketchmon unless we give it the stats, ability, or moves to overcome it. And if we don't, Sketch is only one move and that might severly limit the movepool it can actually use. Either way the potential of it overcoming these checks aren't good and the best thing I see is it KOing Dragonite without Multiscale in effect. If it has acess to Earth Power, good, but alot of Heatran carry Air Balloons just for the ground type attacks. If our focus is bulky offense, it may be able to take a hit or two from these offensive threats.

On the defensive end of the spectrum, there's, as already mentioned before, Mandibuzz, Umbreon, Latias, and many other walls that may inhibit the focus of its offensive capability. Using Tail Glow, Shell Smash, Shift Gear, or any other big boosting move will most likely push it over to be able to hit at least 2HKOs on those, with a 250% boost to Shadow Ball.

 

[Deck Knight]

LOL on not counting Togekiss Dusk (Mandibuzz less so, though its still bulky enough to take most of the things the CAP 2 can throw at it assuming a normal kind of set). If CAP has taught us anything, it's that Togekiss is always metagame-relevant when a CAP comes around. 85/95/115 Defenses and a STAB SE Air Slash make Togekiss more than competent to address CAP 2.

In any case, I'm avoiding potential support sets and I'm not so focused on Sacred Fire as everyone else. Yeah, there's a ton of stuff that hates burn, but if CAP2 doesn't get that burn when the threat comes in, it's irrelevant, and to boot there's a 5% chance that Sacred Fire will whiff completely. Discounting a threat because it hates a sketched Sacred Fire is nonsense, not to mention in the case of Dragonite, rendered irrelevant by the fact Draggy is blasting you to bits with Hurricane. It won't be able to abuse Multiscale, true, but if you have SF you inherently don't have a boosting move for it to concern itself with.

This isn't really the kind of Pokemon we should view in light of not being able to get around threats. Tail Glow HP Fire will reassemble Jirachi's cute face and flambe Skarmory's metallic hide. (Jirachi also hates burn from SF anyway) That's why I focused around two fairly synergistic sets. There's still going to be something like a Coil or Swords Dance or Shift Gear set, but none of those sets have as much synergy as special attacker sets. This largely means Blissey is a counter unless we give CAP2 Leech Seed or it uses Substitute on a set to prevent Toxic. It makes Toxic Spikes much more problematic to deal with.

In general I'm sticking with my analysis that aside from the high-level threats, the biggest problem Pokemon are going to shift between Heatran, Hydregon, and Volcarona. I'm also avoiding support moves at this point, and sticking to offensive sets. NAM is a long, far way away, but I can make some offensive assumptions with certainty knowing only Sketch and Hidden Power.

 

[Rising_Dusk]

Togekiss is largely impractical in OU, and Mandibuzz more so. Like has been said so many times before, just matching up well against one Pokemon in OU doesn't make a Pokemon worth seriously considering (and if it does, the Pokemon that it beats is probably broken). Togekiss isn't bad, but we should not be breaking a sweat over it or designing CAP 2 with it in mind. It is such a minor detail in the grand scheme of things that addressing it would distract us from the bigger picture and bigger threats.

We're really only supposed to be discussing threats based on typing at this stage. Yes, if CAP 2 is special, Blissey will be an issue, but that's all polljumping, really. Do not mistake this stage for the checks and counters discussion that happens later! We don't know what CAP 2 will be, plain and simple! That is why at this stage, I am comfortable with the Steels as current checks, even though CAP 2 will probably be Sketching something or using HPFire to hurt them. Volcarona is a decent point, although assuming even rudimentary STAB Ghost-type moves on CAP 2, Volcarona probably won't be taking a boosted hit particularly well.

That is why I discussed Dragonite and Hydreigon at length before. They are relevant mostly because of typing and their 600 BST stats. Hydreigon walls CAP 2's STABs, and Dragonite has both Multiscale and huge bulk with which to handle Ghost-type STAB attacks. What I really want to see is people thinking over whether these threats are acceptable, and if any others exist that we haven't been made aware of.

 

[Stratos]

Weavile I could see being a threat to CAP2. It couldn't, obviously, come in on a Grass STAB, but it's insanely fast and has Ice Shard / Night Slash to KO with, if we go the route of slow offense.

Bisharp, yes it's not the most viable Poke but is CAP2's hardest counter IMO, it has an absurdly powerful Sucker Punch to take him out even (especially) after a Shell Smash or two.

Tyranitar is able to check, if not counter if it comes in on a Ghost move (or if CAP2 leans special) It can mindgame with Pursuit / Crunch and maybe start running Scarftar again.

Sun in general, as Chlorophyllers can outspeed at +2 and proceed to eat alive.

more to come as i think of them

EDIT:

"theoretical threat"

icwutudidthar

 

[ShiningFire]

Togekiss is largely impractical in OU, and Mandibuzz more so. Like has been said so many times before, just matching up well against one Pokemon in OU doesn't make a Pokemon worth seriously considering (and if it does, the Pokemon that it beats is probably broken). Togekiss isn't bad, but we should not be breaking a sweat over it or designing CAP 2 with it in mind. It is such a minor detail in the grand scheme of things that addressing it would distract us from the bigger picture and bigger threats.

We're really only supposed to be discussing threats based on typing at this stage. Yes, if CAP 2 is special, Blissey will be an issue, but that's all polljumping, really. Do not mistake this stage for the checks and counters discussion that happens later! We don't know what CAP 2 will be, plain and simple! That is why at this stage, I am comfortable with the Steels as current checks, even though CAP 2 will probably be Sketching something or using HPFire to hurt them. Volcarona is a decent point, although assuming even rudimentary STAB Ghost-type moves on CAP 2, Volcarona probably won't be taking a boosted hit particularly well.

That is why I discussed Dragonite and Hydreigon at length before. They are relevant mostly because of typing and their 600 BST stats. Hydreigon walls CAP 2's STABs, and Dragonite has both Multiscale and huge bulk with which to handle Ghost-type STAB attacks. What I really want to see is people thinking over whether these threats are acceptable, and if any others exist that we haven't been made aware of.

This. At this point, that explains about everything we can think about until we get further into CAP 2's project.

 

[Aerodactyl Legend]

Dragonite and Hydreigon are good candidates as threats. I also think that Steels not held down by quad weaknesses can be customed to take on CAP2 as well (though, there aren't that many fitting that category in OU).

Seeing how Sketch is a very powerful asset, large BST based Pokes looks to be the way to deal with it. Consider Pokemon that are great additions to any team, whose flaws wouldn't regulate them to a status that their only use is to be an answer to this CAP.

 

[Birkal]

I would concur with Dragonite and Hydregion being viable threats. Since a lot has been said about them, I'm going to focus on some other threats that might give CAP2 problems:

While Blissey gets demolished by physical attacks, Tail Glow sets have to be wary of this defensive threat, especially with their Ghost-type STAB null and void. Bronzong is also a threat in that it will most likely be able to switch into most of CAP2's attacks, survive the hit, and expose its Sketch move. Ferrothorn could most likely handle any set without a Fire-type move with ease while setting up its own hazards; this is especially frightening is CAP2 wants to take a supportive role. Forretress, likewise, can threaten any supporting CAP2 sets by sending out its own hazards (although, Rapid Spin is blocked). Gengar can outspeed any non-boosting sets and most likely OHKO with a Ghost move, even though it has to be careful about switching in. Heatran resists both STABs can can seriously mess up CAP2's coverage moves while providing Stealth Rock support. Jirachi can run a lot of varied sets and is sure to give CAP2 trouble if it doesn't have the right coverage move prepared. With the same token, Latias should be able to switch in relatively well and phaze out the threat. Salamence can also be very frightening if CAP2 doesn't have an Ice-move; letting it set up a Dragon Dance can very well mean "gg" at times. And finally, Volcarona has the chance to come in for free on a Grass-type move and set up Quiver Dances against CAP2 moderately well. I would say that all of these have the possibility to become counters.

Another point that I'd like to make is that, in my opinion, CAP2 seems to have considerably more counters/checks if it decides to run a defensive or supportive set. Taunt, Ferrothorn, Blissey, Forretress, Deoxys-S (as a lead), Wobbuffet, and many other threats could stop CAP2 from setting up well. Since we listed one of our goals as the ability to give the Sketch-move the most flexibility possible, I advise that we consider these defensive threats just as much as the offensive ones (like Dragonite and Hydreigon) in order to fulfill our goal.

 

[ShravanP]

It seems fair to assume that the aforementioned steels will act as good checks to an attack-oriented Sketchmon. But for a CAP2 that's looking to play a support role, they are not necessarily that threatening. Dragonite, Skarmory, Jirachi, Heatran, Hydregion, and Gengar will all not enjoy taking any form of status and have no way to prevent CAP2 from switching out (barring a weak Pursuit from Gengar). Granted, it's not healthy to give any of those Pokemon free turns, but that's dependent on movepool, stats, and player skill, all of which are out of the scope of this discussion.

Like the above poster mentioned, non-attacking variants will likely have many different counters. Wobbuffet may or may not be one of them depending on the set and the movepool. Purely based on typing, other grass types might give this trouble, as well as Espeon with its Magic Bounce.

 

[Typhlosion]

Touching on what someone above said about Weavile and Ice Shard, I think that CB Mamoswine could be a pretty good revenge killer for CAP2. Obviously, it probably won't want to come in on any grass moves, but if we decide to make CAP2 more specially bulky, I could really see Mamoswine being a pretty effective check.

 

[CuteandScary]

I'm not sured if I'm allowed to say this but If it is a ghost type it will most likely have Thunderbolt making steels less of an issue, assuming we go specially based. If physical we're going to have to deal with a whole slew of problems. Ghost is terrible for physical, but it does have priority. A move set of
Power Whip or Wood Hammer, Shadow sneak, Sketch (Close Combat or HJK probably for neutral on most steels) and Sword Dance Seems like the obvious set plowing through stuff much like Sawsbuck.

 

[rippersteveM5]

The problem with discussing 'Threats' for Sketchy is that its sketched move will be chosen to check as many of these threats as possible. Problem with Dragonite? Use Ice Beam/Punch. Heatran? Use insert EQ/Earth Power/Aura Sphere etc. Additionally, because of its ability to use Spore, it can negate one of its counters immediately anyway. Because of this, we should choose carefully the speed tier we want Sketchy to sit in: too slow and it will be dead weight, too fast and it will simply spore its counter on the opposing team and tear the team apart.

To put it in perspective; the fastest pokemon (aside from Smeargle itself, which has no offensive presence) is Breloom, sitting at a distinctly average 70 base speed.

 

[Tals]

Skarmory hates being burned, if you have wisp on this pokemon, as ghosts tend to do, Skarmory won't be able to check it very hard.

 

[WinstonShnozwick]

Steels generally look like good stops to this, resisting both grass and ghost, but because of this, Sacred Fire is very likely to be a common sketch move. Dragons I think, especially Hydriegon, will be good counters, if sketchmon doesnt get an ice move. Volcarona sounds like a good mon to check this, counter even if it is specially attacking.

Personally, I think that with the speed creep that's caught up with BW OU, everything is hovering around 110 speed, so you do NOT want to have sketchmon get caught behind. I think that 95 base speed would be a great area to be in.

 

[zyrefredric]

Hoping I'm not poll-jumping here, but I'm wondering what the consensus of the community is on how fast CAP2 should be. A few posts in this thread claims that if we want the threat of Heatran and Dragonite to still be there, it should not be faster than it. Others said that it should have middling speed to prevent Spore-spamming. There has been concerns about making this CAP too slow or too fast. But if I remember right from Concept Assessment, there were advocates about making CAP2 very fast, so that Shell Smash would somehow lose its value (high speed means it will be hit after Smashing, when it has -1/-1 defenses). So I guess what I'm trying to ask is, is a speed discussion relevant to this Threat Discussion stage? Is it inevitable that we talk about it now, or could it wait for later?

 

[Immanency]

Assuming we won't be going over Hydreigon, like a few people have mentioned, I say we put Sketchy at <85 or exactly 85 base speed, to accomplish multiple things:

1. As a bulky offensive mon, it must run at least a small amount of speed EVs to outpace standard CroCune, who it will check.

2. At <85, before any speed boosts, it will always be outpaced by Timid Nidoking, who checks it with Ice Beam and Flamethrower/Fire Blast.

3. Outrun Dnite.

4. If we put it as 90, it will outrun the Rotom Formes, (which I do not think is advisable) and at 95, it will outrun Lucario and Roserade, and tie with Kyurem and Darmanitan, two pokes who would otherwise act as possible checks.

 

[Shaggles]

I cannot possibly think of what else can be discussed in much more detail without it being borderline poll jumping. It's been established what Pokemon can check CAP 2 and the current discussion involving Dragonite and Hydreigon should probably be saved for later when Speed and other stats are discussed in more depth. I for one am real excited about this CAP and its current direction! I'm just wondering now if it's going to have a physical or special bias.

 

[Rising_Dusk]

Yeah, I agree. I also think that this has addressed what it set out to address. We've got a decent list of things that can do fairly effectively against CAP 2 based on typing alone, and as if by design (!), this list is mostly of things that we want to be good against CAP 2. There are definitely Pokemon, notably Heatran, Jirachi, and Skarmory that deal with CAP 2 through typing. CAP 2 will then likely respond to these threats by tinkering its Hidden Power and/or Sketch move, which will not allow it to appropriately tackle all of those three at once. We then have Dragonite and Hydreigon, which pose a big threat. This may be good, however; jas made a compelling argument that we should probably down the road think about 'handling' Dragonite but not Hydreigon. I think that the stats stage will be pivotal in succeeding there.

Normal / Flying Pokemon, amusingly, wall CAP 2's STABs. I only say that because Deck would kill me if I don't mention Togekiss somewhere as a solid check, as I wholly expect him to use it in playtesting just to spite me now. :P I don't think any of them are massive concerns, however, and so we shouldn't give them too much thought.

Outside of that, I believe that we're definitely going where we need to go. From the posts in this thread, I see that the direction is solid and that our typing has not hurt the concept or our focus for it. Good! I'll go ahead and close this and reopen the other thread now.