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Lie, Cheat, and Steal Mafia Thieves Win
- Thread starter vonFiedler
- Start date
There's a video game with the same name - I did that already.
Made the decision based partially on misunderstanding what happens as well as some legitimate math.
The thing I misunderstood is that the groups would be mixed up. I thought we were paired with them for the rest of the game and there could be strategy in who dies based on the groups and trying to take control of said groups. I'm not sure if it was posted if it would always be randomized or not but I didn't see it. In economics one of the common ways of "beating" the prisoner's dilemma is by repeat interactions, because people are more inclined to ally if they know there will be future interactions with them. One of the major motivations behind "ally" was "we can ally for now and then think about if we betray or not once we hit 7."
Odds are appx 4/9, given no neutrals and 4 mafians on each team which are reasonable assumptions, that neither of ace emerald nor firemage are mafia. Odds are appx 4/9 that one is mafia and 1/9 they both are.
I don't feel strongly either way towards where my partner is in terms of alliance, at the time of the decision I leaned slightly more towards mafia but now probably lean town? Idk but it barely plays into the decision calculus other than "I know that I am town"
Beyond that, I also reasoned that the benefits at 9 points were unlikely to be so strong as to be an extra mafia kill; they would most likely be something like a hook or an inspect or something which is only slightly stronger than that of town as extra kills would seem incredibly difficult to balance in the game.
That said, the benefits in the scenario of 4/9 both being town are really good regardless of their decision. The benefits to town in the 4/9 of them being 1 scum 1 village lean mafia in the benefits. The village gets wrecked if they're both scum. Given that I think Von would put at least 1 big name player on each team, it's reasonable to assume that the odds of them both being mafia are lower than other players since while both firemage and ace emerald are solid players they're not the big names that von would likely think of to lead a faction.
I also slightly miscalculated in terms of the harm to me and my partner but not so much so that I regret allying.
The thing I misunderstood is that the groups would be mixed up. I thought we were paired with them for the rest of the game and there could be strategy in who dies based on the groups and trying to take control of said groups. I'm not sure if it was posted if it would always be randomized or not but I didn't see it. In economics one of the common ways of "beating" the prisoner's dilemma is by repeat interactions, because people are more inclined to ally if they know there will be future interactions with them. One of the major motivations behind "ally" was "we can ally for now and then think about if we betray or not once we hit 7."
Odds are appx 4/9, given no neutrals and 4 mafians on each team which are reasonable assumptions, that neither of ace emerald nor firemage are mafia. Odds are appx 4/9 that one is mafia and 1/9 they both are.
I don't feel strongly either way towards where my partner is in terms of alliance, at the time of the decision I leaned slightly more towards mafia but now probably lean town? Idk but it barely plays into the decision calculus other than "I know that I am town"
Beyond that, I also reasoned that the benefits at 9 points were unlikely to be so strong as to be an extra mafia kill; they would most likely be something like a hook or an inspect or something which is only slightly stronger than that of town as extra kills would seem incredibly difficult to balance in the game.
That said, the benefits in the scenario of 4/9 both being town are really good regardless of their decision. The benefits to town in the 4/9 of them being 1 scum 1 village lean mafia in the benefits. The village gets wrecked if they're both scum. Given that I think Von would put at least 1 big name player on each team, it's reasonable to assume that the odds of them both being mafia are lower than other players since while both firemage and ace emerald are solid players they're not the big names that von would likely think of to lead a faction.
I also slightly miscalculated in terms of the harm to me and my partner but not so much so that I regret allying.
i need to be subbed, sorry
lol everyone thought of that. We figured it was pretty likely actually - I thought we were just talking of our tactics about it?
walrein what are your thoughts on your partner ullar
Oh I concur with this -- I gave him a pressure test and he reacted pretty badly but it's not really conclusive.
"Ullar reacted poorly" is a tautology.
I was gone pretty much all day yesterday, so I didn't interact with Ullar much. I can relay the contents of our AB phase convo.
Regarding the IRC thing, I was hanging with friends and forgot to sign out, so I was basically idling on IRC all day.
Ullar said:
Ullar said:
Walrein said:
Ullar said:
Ullar said:
And that's it. Not exactly a lot to go off of.Walrein said:
Regarding the IRC thing, I was hanging with friends and forgot to sign out, so I was basically idling on IRC all day.
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I don't think you have to apologize for not being on IRC for the NOC phase.
Actually nevermind. Lame solo-er talking.
I don't know how else the points are supposed to work and von pretty much revealed himself as psychorabbitIII so I doubt the secret NOC phases are going to change.
Actually nevermind. Lame solo-er talking.
I don't know how else the points are supposed to work and von pretty much revealed himself as psychorabbitIII so I doubt the secret NOC phases are going to change.
Oh, so I'm under scrutiny, eh? Lessee what we can come up with...
I would have liked to see Walrein a bit more, so we could talk this over, but I'll be frank: it was the safe option. Yeah, it's also the jerk option, but the point stands. I want to survive this game all the way to the end (weird, amirite)
REgarding sandshrewz I will say what a few people I talked with are thinking. You read as village, but...an unpredictable, unexperienced village. You said you would merely get everyone together (I think) but I'm not sure who you'll tell waht. Everyone wants to know something - we don't want to be cogs in a machine.
Jussayin'
EDIT: I think Walrein might be trying to keep a low profile, however.
He clearly stated he was alright with it - didn't want to even talk about it. I am willing to consider the possibility his noncommittal attitude is just him trying to keep a low profile. Either he could be a powerful villager or mafia.
Just my two dimes (ohohoho I'm upping the stakes)
I would have liked to see Walrein a bit more, so we could talk this over, but I'll be frank: it was the safe option. Yeah, it's also the jerk option, but the point stands. I want to survive this game all the way to the end (weird, amirite)
REgarding sandshrewz I will say what a few people I talked with are thinking. You read as village, but...an unpredictable, unexperienced village. You said you would merely get everyone together (I think) but I'm not sure who you'll tell waht. Everyone wants to know something - we don't want to be cogs in a machine.
Jussayin'
EDIT: I think Walrein might be trying to keep a low profile, however.
Code:
16:34TSMreinullar's the one that made the decisionJust my two dimes (ohohoho I'm upping the stakes)
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requesting Fatecrashers and sandshrewz get a fucking room.
Log please
lol wtf did i do
Need a sub for theangryscientist please.
Yeti has subbed in for macle
Reaching 0 points does kill you.
Yeti has subbed in for macle
Reaching 0 points does kill you.