I really don't have problems with lynching anyone besides myself. However, if you want me to base this off my time with him in the room, he was very mathematical. Not much to say besides that.
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Lie, Cheat, and Steal Mafia Thieves Win
- Thread starter vonFiedler
- Start date
Every Special Phase will be an AB Phase. The game is pretty much set in stone now.
imperfectluck has been subbed in for theangryscientist
During the AB phase, I was just going for what was statistically the best option: allying gives either +2 or -2 (average points gained: 0), while betraying gives either +3 or 0 (average points gained: 1,5), so betraying it was. Not much besides that, I was assuming pretty much everyone would be going for the safe option since we have very little to go by so far, and weren't informed about the AB phase before.
you suck >:|
anyway lemme address some points from my own post e_e /me zzzzzz
re: moi and ab phase. I cannot reliably proof that moi is villager. However, there are some scenarios I'll like to consider based on the assumption that mafia will make choices similar to what I'll make if I were mafia. If I were mafia, I'd ally with the opposing team if I know they have at least one mafia on their side so that at least one of us will get points. Even if the other villager gets points, we can try to kill them later if we're worried about them (villager) getting 9 pts. As such, since moi did not want to ally, he is either villager or he is mafia and both TIK and Fatecrashers are villagers. These two cases are the most likely. If we assume there's ~30% chance (average from 8/23 and 6/23 based from typical 2v1 according to someone) for any random person to be mafia, for moi to be villager there is simply 70% chance. For moi to be mafia and both TIK and Fate are villagers, there is 15% chance. My assumption of moi making moves that I would make and the ~30% have to be somewhat true for this to hold of course. Therefore I'm inclined to think that moi is villager based on these assumptions as the probability is greater.
Anyway, it's pretty obvious I didn't get many claims so of course the plan is not going to be put in motion. I guess I was being too optimistic getting people to trust that I will not let info fall into the wrong hands xd perhaps most people do feel that a lead of knowing a list of probable villagers aren't that important right now and scum hunting is better. I'll write up what I had in mind if we went with what I had planned in the event that villagers find a time when it'll be good to use it, whether or not I'm alive. I won't post it here because I'm constantly rewriting the plan as I think of better ideas and change stuff so lol. You can contact me to give you a link to the written up stuff. It doesn't really matter if it falls into the hands of mafia because there isn't much that can be done to prepare against it other than trying to spam more people trying to fake villagers. That's all for now. Will try to get it done before n1 ends so that I can pass it to someone in case mafia really tries to kill me first xD
as for kok + Laurel. kok initially considered that he Laurel could be mafia but quickly changed his mind after ab phase. It doesn't make sense for kok to be mafia because it doesn't benefit him to do that as his credibility of trying to see whether someone is mafia or not has been hurt. It does not benefit him if kok = mafia and laurel = villager. But if kok = mafia and laurel = mafia, it doesn't make sense either because he should be sure that laurel wasn't mafia so he could try to throw him for a lynch. This will only happen if mafia haven't communicated and he didn't know laurel was mafia at that time and just decided to give it a try which is dumb too since if laurel could be mafia and mafia haven't talked with each other then kok wouldn't try to get a potential mafia lynched if he was mafia. kok is hence more likely to be villager because his erratic moves wouldn't benefit him usually if he was mafia. Hence if kok is villager then he wouldn't want to lie that laurel is villager based on what laurel said by "See I told you I wasn't mafia" before kok told him that pairings were random. So kok & laurel = villager. This is not taking into account of wolf so .-.
Yes people will know something but no one will know all the roles. Some people may not be given anything if the role they claim are deemed to be too useful for lategame and I'd rather no one knows about it or if they claimed no role. This probably doesn't make any sense until I actually explain fully what I intended to do haha :pullarwarlord said:
I'll try to avoid blind lynching but
e: it's not like fate will get lynched likely anyway but :D
e2: nah
e3: sorry for the finnicky or w/e the word was I forgot. Lynch ginganinja got this from elimination of those who chose to ally and eliminating those who are more likely to be village due to several reasoning within and outside this thread.
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Hey guys, sorry for taking so long to speak up in the thread, I was very busy this weekend and you can easily verify this with anyone that works with me in the social media crew. I've spent quite a while reading and rereading the thread, a lot has happened in a few days.
In case anyone really needs an explanation of why FireMage and I decided on betray (though idk if I really have to I mean most everyone picked that option), it was simply because without prior communication, betray was the only safe option in the PD. I understand DLE's math and technique for achieving the optimal solution, but I was under the impression we weren't repeating with the same people and I honestly didn't expect anyone to ally without communication. All though it's been discussed a little, we should really use the time we can communicate to try and pin down a village strategy so we can maximize village points. If we all keep sticking with the safe option, no one will reach 9 points, which von implied really assists village. Sandshrewz mentioned something about only allying with those you're sure are village, so maybe keep a strategy of betraying early game, with more allying as info accumulates. Just spitballing, but no matter what we should try not to enter the AB phase on different pages.
As for the lynch, of course we're not really going to have a clear idea of who is scum at this point. I'm waiting for more responses and suggestions before I vote to avoid bandwagoning without good reason.
In case anyone really needs an explanation of why FireMage and I decided on betray (though idk if I really have to I mean most everyone picked that option), it was simply because without prior communication, betray was the only safe option in the PD. I understand DLE's math and technique for achieving the optimal solution, but I was under the impression we weren't repeating with the same people and I honestly didn't expect anyone to ally without communication. All though it's been discussed a little, we should really use the time we can communicate to try and pin down a village strategy so we can maximize village points. If we all keep sticking with the safe option, no one will reach 9 points, which von implied really assists village. Sandshrewz mentioned something about only allying with those you're sure are village, so maybe keep a strategy of betraying early game, with more allying as info accumulates. Just spitballing, but no matter what we should try not to enter the AB phase on different pages.
As for the lynch, of course we're not really going to have a clear idea of who is scum at this point. I'm waiting for more responses and suggestions before I vote to avoid bandwagoning without good reason.
It basically comes down to; a) do you feel comfortable with empowering mafia to empower village, or b) do you feel the village is strong enough by itself to take on both mafias. Sticking with the safe option for a bit until we have a better idea of who is who could potentially hurt us. While there is the possibility of cross-fire, it is probably more likely that village will hit one of it's own and potentially render ourselves too weak by the time we decide to start going for the points.
With that being said, I normally go for the safer playstyle throughout a game. I also don't know how powerful everyone's bonuses are and could easily end up exaggerating this entire process.
With that being said, I normally go for the safer playstyle throughout a game. I also don't know how powerful everyone's bonuses are and could easily end up exaggerating this entire process.
We should come up with a post saying what everyone should do in each AB phase now
I'd be down to just push "all ally or get lynched" for tonight if village is really going to benefit more from it than mafia.
I'd be down to just push "all ally or get lynched" for tonight if village is really going to benefit more from it than mafia.
reading over von's day 1 post again, a part that stands out to me is that the less points we have the easier it is for the mafia to kill us, therefore i conjecture that apart from getting our points reduced through the ally/betray system, the mafia can also harm through using their nightly kill, which in this case works by deducting a set amount of points from a user, so if a villager remains at the default 3 points they're instantly killed, but if they have the maximum 9 points then it may take multiple kill attempts to reduce that villager's points to zero, which goes some ways to remedy the fact that there isn't a traditional village bodyguard in this game
i have also confirmed with von that lynching is not based on the points system, so if the village play smart and build up their points, then we can survive multiple kill attempts while the mafia remain vulnerable to death by lynching
therefore i am inclined to agree with an 'all ally or get lynched' strategy for now as it will likely give the village immediate benefits
i have also confirmed with von that lynching is not based on the points system, so if the village play smart and build up their points, then we can survive multiple kill attempts while the mafia remain vulnerable to death by lynching
therefore i am inclined to agree with an 'all ally or get lynched' strategy for now as it will likely give the village immediate benefits
I'm not saying it's a bad idea, actually I think it is quite a good one, but Von never said that the village gets more from it than the mafia, he just said we get something good. The mafia teams could get something really really good.
No, it's been established that the village should be going for points because (1) the bonuses are better and (2) the lynch ignores points. Meaning points help one faction much more than it helps the others. It makes me think there's no way there are no catches to this, because there's nothing stopping us from doing this Everyone Ally plan otherwise.
There's (1).
Here's why (2) matters. Just so it's clear to everyone.
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This seems extremely likely, and is honestly what we should be basing our strategy around.
[BVote No Lynch[/B] if there is actually a lynch today? We clearly don't have the information we want/need to lynch someone.[/B]
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Chances are that mafia has some means of lowering points on players, but until we've had a round of night actions, there's not much we can say about that. After that, flavour in von's update may hint at some roles, which will help. Until a better option arises, I'm on board with the Everybody Ally plan; if anything, it'll make sure that none of the people at 1 point at the moment will get killed during the next AB phase.
I'm just going to say i'm certain KoK is village. I know he's manipulative but his logic was to betray so mafia couldn't get power ups. I don't think paranoid is the right word, but he seemed to cautious of giving mafia power ups. I think if he was mafia he probably would have convinced me to ally.
How did he know that the point system would give powerups? I thought that the village didn't know until just after the AB phase...
vote askaninjask
i like this vote
i like this vote
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vonFiedler mentioned the ''super neat ability bonuses'' at the introduction of the AB system, so KoK could have known.
Cowbell why do you care so much about kingofkongs
I don't, really (at least not more than any other player in the game); this was the first time I mentioned kok. All I'm doing is answering Celever's question.
fair enough. do you think we should be lynching today or not? If so, do you have any particular preferences?
I'm always hesitant when it comes down to D1 lynches, as there is very little to go by. If we were to lynch however, my vote would go to askaninjask, as he has contributed nothing besides a no lynch vote and two useless filler posts. His only preference so far seems to be the Everyone Ally mentality, something no one has disagreed with so far.
I'm not gonna be updating on time and that probably will apply to the next 2 updates as well (I will update when I wake up). Use this time wisely!
This isn't really an NOC. It seems to be an OC game with several special phases which we're calling AB phases which are NOC. Given the fact that we can claim outside the thread to someone without disclosing our information to everyone, OC strategies are better than NOC ones imo. That's why I've not been posting very much.
Since the game started we've learned a lot about how the game works...
Since the game started we've learned a lot about how the game works...