Mafia From the Depths - GAME OVER, INSANE WIN

[zorbees]

I had brought up eagle4 a bit ago, i didn't say much but just asked everyone's opinion of him. I'm not sure if that is what caused Jalmont to look into him or not, but I agree that he has been flying under the radar, particularly during the whole Shining Latios, Metal Sonic, and Infinity.Cypher affair.

I think it is interesting though, to note that he voted for Shining Latios, and did not switch over to Cypher. I don't know how much of this can be attributed to not being around though.

I think something to note is that myself, Walrein, and ShinySkarmory were on both votes. I was early on both votes, Walrein was the hammer vote on Cypher but was early on Shining Latios, and ShinySkarmory was towards the middle of both wagons.

I have to look back at some of his posts, but I think the above shows a bit of a scumtell on ShinySkarmory. Seems to me like he was just trying to pile onto a vote on anyone he thought had a chance to go over majority. For now I will put a placeholder vote on Lynch ShinySkarmory, but I do want to go back and look at his posts.

I don't think there is much to learn from Da Letter El's death, but I won't stop anyone from trying. I just feel like the mafia tried to kill someone who was known to be good at NOC and experienced at it. We can go and look at his reads, but obviously his read on Cypher was wrong, so he obviously wasn't perfect. (I believe he had a scum read on me, which I personally know to be wrong as well, but obviously that's not provable until I die).

Lastly, I think we shouldn't get as quick of a Sentry majority as we did on Day 1. I know the sentry isn't that important, but I don't think it'd be wise to get into another situation, similar to yesterday, where we go "we shouldn't lynch dle because that would waste the sentry". We have a lot of time to determine who we think is the most clean, so why not use it?

 

[Spiffy]

My wishes came true! Jalmont has posted! And from what he posted, I am getting a pretty strong town vibe from him. See how that works?

Anyway to answer one of your questions towards me from Day 1, the reason I continued to pressure you in particular is because I know you have the potential to be helpful (as you have displayed with your newfound habit of posting, thanks to me :D). It was the same with Da Letter El. Since I know the more experienced players' playstyles better, that's who I tend to focus on more. After looking over Eagle's post again I 100% agree with you that it was a whole lot of nothing.

But I believe I have a better target.

After Da Letter El mentioned that he had a strong scum read on zorbees, I went back and reread his posts and a lot of things interested me:

1.) Shortly after askaninjask posted his vote for Walrein (the one that three players quickly bandwagoned) zorbees posts the following:

Unlynch Eagle4
Lynch Empoof

somewhat experienced user who is not contributing at all, yet has been somewhat active.

I'm still a bit suspect of walrein but I'd like to see another option get explored as well

Never in the thread had he voiced suspicions of Walrein prior to this. It seems like a way a mafia could eventually fall back on a Walrein lynch if it continued to escalate, without actually committing to the bandwagon in case it failed.

Later in the thread zorbees posts:

walrein: seems to be playing typical walrein style, so i'm leaning town, especially because i imagine some of the people who wagoned onto him may be scum

zorbees claims that he suspects some of the people who bandwagoned aska's vote for Walrein to be mafia. What I don't understand is why he feels this way if he felt that Walrein was suspicious too? He throws the bandwagoners under the bus for voting this way when he felt the same way but just didn't cast a vote for it.

Additionally, he really only challenges the "newer" players, maybe seeing them as easier targets to fool the village into voting out!

Vote zorbees

If anyone needs any clarification of why I feel this way please don't hesitate to speak up!

 

[zorbees]

Double posting, but I am extremely happy with my vote on ShinySkarmory, after reviewing his posts. The majority of them are very insignificant. There are a couple where he does post-by-post analysis, similar to what walrein has done, but there is very little analysis, and mostly just stating what everyone else could already know by reading my posts. I agree with jalmont that when you post like this, you need to include a lot of analysis and personal opinions, or else it looks scummy. He hasn't really posted very much personal opinion; his latest post is evidence of that. A lot of his posts are clarifying stuff that doesn't relate that much to finding scum, such as what the sentry does, why he wanted to vote no lynch early on day 1, etc. He appeared very cautious to post reads, and when called out, he did the post-by-post, which, looking back, doesn't really do it for me.

tl;dr this lynch seems pretty good imo

 

[Eagle4]

So going back to this post I want to point out a couple things.

1. It's vague. There's just a lot of vagueness in this post. "heavily involved in current affairs" and "post that" don't really say anything about anyone.

3. Lacks analysis. For the list of supposed "shady" people, it does that pretty well. It's just a list that uses (imo) the weakest arguments for someone being mafia; someone who posts little or not at all. I think it's pretty interesting that he was echoing Spiffy's viewpoint of me not contributing. Maybe it's just me, but I thought that was pretty out of the blue (although I could've missed a post asking him to talk about me so yea)

2. Reiterating stuff already said. The last part is something was a discussion on no lynching that had already been discussed and beaten to death. Why else reestablish a well known fact? Well, it's because as a mafia you want to be seen as "contributing" and talking about unimportant stuff like that is the best way to be seen as "contributing" while avoiding offering any real opinions.

this post really comes off as a mafia who is unsure how to play the situation; at first glance you might think it's someone who is trying to help until you realize it isn't very helpful at all.

on the other hand spiffy is playing like an experienced mafia but that's something for another post!

I think it's very interesting the people eagle doesn't mention; I would hazard a guess to say if he flips mafia then the people mentioned in this post are likely to be villagers.

Lynch Eagle4
Sentry Jalmont

i am unsure how articulate i am being on this position so please feel free to question my points if you want!

Well, I guess I'll question your points then.

1. You're right. It is vague and should have more detail, so I'm sorry if that bothers you. I don't really know how to add more detail really; give examples to back up my opinions? (There's no point now, unless you really want me to?) I disagree with you about "post that" and "heavily involved in current affairs" doesn't say a lot about a person. Of course it does; Walrein is an experienced mafia player and so he wouldn't sentry himself if he was mafia. Of course, he could be double-bluffing, but that seems unlikely. I'd associate somebody who posts a lot as being a townie. Of course, that's just my opinion, what do I know.

3. (Lol you swapped 2 and 3) Lack analysis.. doesn't that go under the same category as vague? Seems like you're just making more points for the sake of it. Anyway, here I disagree with you. Saying that somebody is very quiet or isn't contributing is definitely not a weak argument. Others have used it in the thread, and it prompts the user to actually contribute more often (Which is the reason for why I voted for Infinity.Cypher, and the reason why I voted for Metal Sonic). It's basically to pressure them into voting, and having a say. About me echoing Spiffy's point of you not contributing, have you noticed that all the shady people I mentioned all weren't contributing? You just fell under that category.

2. I had already said it hadn't been established. But yes, you have a point here, it was needless to say that no lynching was and still is a terrible idea. I don't get what you mean by not making any real opinions.. my post was full of them to be honest.

Really though; you're lynching me for one post (Which Walrein, I think, said that the post you're targeting was townie)? There are many others here who have made terrible posts consecutively which you haven't batted an eyelid at (shining latios and metal sonic the main culprits here)

Also, i think it is in our best interest to sentry somebody who is an experienced player, but also a definite village (unless he's playing really well) I'm undecided on who to vote for as of now.

Sentry Walrein

 

[shinyskarmory]

shinyskarmory why are your top mafia reads those three players? stating that without giving an explanation isn't very helpful to anyone at all, except for the mafia of course!

Shining Latios and Metal Sonic are both on my list for suspicious and low quality posts, which others have already covered. This makes them low risk targets since they aren't really doing much anyways (although Metal Sonic has been doing a little more recently.

Actually, to be honest I thought Eagle4 was clean until I read your post, but you persuaded me.

 

[zorbees]

spiffy, the post before i said "still suspect of walrein", i didn't implicitly state i was suspecting of walrein, but i said that his logic for his sentry vote was pretty shitty. Obviously, this was an incredibly early opinion of him, which is why it makes sense that I changed my opinion of him, especially when a few votes piled up on him. in regards for only challenging newer players, I agree this is true to an extent, but two things in response to that: 1) I have put pressure on, I think, every new user, except for More Cowbell, who I had an early read on as noob-town, although I should probably reassess just to make sure (I'll do that soon, I gtg to dinner after this post), and 2) I have put some pressure, albeit minor, on users such as empoof and lightwolf. I still think lightwolf could be scum, as he seems to have disappeared during most of yesterday's lynching, and seems to rarely post when not asked to. Right now, though, I am pretty staunchly supporting a ShinySkarmory lynch, because, in my eyes, it is pretty obvious. Another experienced user, askaninjask, has been pretty inactive, so I've had trouble reading him, particularly because I remember a few of his posts being decent, but obviously he hasn't posted much, so his overall helpfulness can't be that high.

to both spiffy, jalmont, and shininglatios: if you couldn't lynch anyone you posted about this far on day 2, who would you lynch?

 

[Blue_Tornado]

Votecount 2.2 - Quickie

Lynch:
Eagle4: (1) Jalmont
Shining Latios: (1) shinyskarmory
shinyskarmory: (1) zorbees
zorbees: (1) Spiffy
Not Voting: (9) Walrein, Shining Latios, Eagle4, LightWolf, More Cowbell, askaninjask, TPM, Empoof, Metal Sonic

Sentry:
Jalmont: (1) Jalmont
shinyskarmory: (1) shinyskarmory
Walrein: (1) Eagle4
Not Voting: (10) Walrein, Shining Latios, LightWolf, Spiffy, More Cowbell, askaninjask, zorbees, TPM, Empoof, Metal Sonic

With 13 alives it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is in 118 hours, 10:00 PM GMT (midnight GMT+2).

 

[zorbees]

i meant shinyskarmory at the end there*

 

[Spiffy]

I still don't like how you voiced concern about the bandwagoners for thinking the same way as you, the only difference being they supplied evidence that could be used against them by voting, where you did not. (That's how I see it)

Your votes on Empoof and LightWolf were intended to just be temporary so they would cast a vote or contribute more, nothing to ruffle their feathers. Your votes on Shining Latios and the other less experienced players are far more serious and with purpose, intending to break under pressure. Now this isn't a bad thing, just that I would expect you to be more broad with who you accuse and not just focus on the less experienced players.

And something I noticed well looking over the thread again:
@askaninjask Why did you only mention Walrein for trying to move the sentry to himself when Empoof did the exact same thing?

 

[Spiffy]

And to answer your question zorbees: I would probably vote for Walrein because of what Jalmont mentioned earlier about his "analyses" of players being used as a guise for regular contributions. I am aware shinyskarmory has done the same thing, but I expect more out of Walrein. I have to reread the thread and pay more attention to the newer players and see how I feel about them.

 

[zorbees]

I still don't like how you voiced concern about the bandwagoners for thinking the same way as you, the only difference being they supplied evidence that could be used against them by voting, where you did not. (That's how I see it)

Sorry that I don't understand this, but could you rephrase, possibly with examples of what you're getting at? I'm not entirely sure what this is supposed to mean

 

[Shining_Latios]

I know people think Jalmont is a troll, but remember when he said he wanted to kill DLE tonight? As we can see now, it ended up happening and DLE is dead. Troll or not, I find it suspicious. This obviously could be the mafia framing him, though as well. I'm just saying, Jalmont could be a double secret dumbass gambit that is scum thinking he could get away with announcing mafia kills in the thread and then end up doing. And then when asked about it, claim it was a coincidence/mafia framing. I don't plan on lynching him yet, but just wanted to get that out there.

 

[Spiffy]

Sorry.

Basically, the bandwagoners actually voted for Walrein where you only voiced suspicions. Then you think some of them could be mafia because they bandwagoned, when you felt the same way at the time but just didn't vote for Walrein like they did.

Is that better? :/

 

[zorbees]

I figure I might as well answer my own question (as best as I can, I mentioned a ton of users thus far already) and say that I would be willing to lynch askaninjask or Shining Latios. I think if one of these users is scum, they both are. askaninjask came back during the Shining Latios lynch, said that he felt Shining Latios was "confused noob townie", and jumped on the Cypher bandwagon. He could very well have been trying to switch the vote off of his teammate. Additionally, I still suspect Shining Latios for the lack of anything useful in his posts, and the way he has bandwagoned, particularly on the Metal Sonic vote. I think the Shining Latios lynch would probably be better though, because he has posted more, and more people have posted about him, creating more ties to analyze.

 

[shinyskarmory]

@zorbees, if I had to vote for somebody I haven't mentioned yet on this page, it would either be Jalmont or askaninjask. Both of them are excellent, well-known mafia players who haven't been very active at all (askaninjask has like 6 posts iirc). To me, having 6 posts in a 15 player game by page 13 (there are over 300 posts by now!) when everyone knows you to be a great player just smacks of trying to stay under the radar.

 

[zorbees]

@Spiffy: I think you're reading too much into something that happened essentially during the RVS.

During the RVS, I tend to do what the name says, randomly vote. I try to make it so that the votes are spread out, because imo the RVS is one of the best times to get peole "involved" in the game. When people see their name being voted, and even the slightest reasoning behind it, they tend to start contributing, at least a little. I hate when the village gets focused too much, too early, on too few people. I was a bit worried during the Metal Sonic/Shining Latios period that this could be happening, but I thought that it was probably best to see it run its course, particularly because I did (and still do) suspect Shining Latios as a likely scum. I tend to throw my vote around a lot early in the game because I often find that most people will usually post when they get voted, even if it is one measly RVS vote.

I know I'm rambling on, but the first sentence was pretty much the main point. I think where we are miscommunicating is due to this. The "suspicions" I voiced towards Walrein were not meant to be taken that strongly (the tone I used when addressing his flawed sentry logic indicates i was slightly kidding), which is why, after more of the game went on, I re-evaluated and thought of him as more town-like. If you want me to, I will re-evaluate Walrein again, because, as I said earlier, I agree with Jalmont that those post-by-post lists aren't that informative, although I am pretty sure it is typical of Walrein to do.

 

[askaninjask]

And something I noticed well looking over the thread again:
@askaninjask Why did you only mention Walrein for trying to move the sentry to himself when Empoof did the exact same thing?

I actually just noticed this too. I think I must have looked over it since the post was just his vote, and I assumed he was random voting and voting to make DLE the sentry.

Will post a full analysis of Day 1 shortly. So far Spiffy is the strongest scum read. Strongest town read is Walrein so for now I'll sentry Walrein. Rest assured that the reasoning behind this is coming shortly...

I still think SL is a stupid lynch. What had he posted now that you think he wouldn't have posted as a villager? If he were mafia, he'd have a team telling him not to post stupid shit.

 

[Ampharos]

Sorry for the mis-hammer, but even if I hadn't fucked up there was nobody awake except for me and Metal Sonic IIRC.

I've been out all evening, and I still have a bit more stuff to take care of, but I'm going to read over what I missed and post my thoughts ASAP.

 

[askaninjask]

I figure I might as well answer my own question (as best as I can, I mentioned a ton of users thus far already) and say that I would be willing to lynch askaninjask or Shining Latios. I think if one of these users is scum, they both are. askaninjask came back during the Shining Latios lynch, said that he felt Shining Latios was "confused noob townie", and jumped on the Cypher bandwagon. He could very well have been trying to switch the vote off of his teammate. Additionally, I still suspect Shining Latios for the lack of anything useful in his posts, and the way he has bandwagoned, particularly on the Metal Sonic vote. I think the Shining Latios lynch would probably be better though, because he has posted more, and more people have posted about him, creating more ties to analyze.

@zorbees, if I had to vote for somebody I haven't mentioned yet on this page, it would either be Jalmont or askaninjask. Both of them are excellent, well-known mafia players who haven't been very active at all (askaninjask has like 6 posts iirc). To me, having 6 posts in a 15 player game by page 13 (there are over 300 posts by now!) when everyone knows you to be a great player just smacks of trying to stay under the radar.

Ok, these are two separate issues so I'll answer them separately. I just posted by opinions on SL and on the SL lynch, I think he's confused town and the lynch on him was stupid. I thought Cypher would be more on top of his game and that his play was more revealing of his identity because he has played for a little bit longer, but I was wrong. While an SL lynch may have given us more ties to other players, I will not vote for someone I think is probably village in order to "create more ties".

@shinyskarmory: Firstly, there are a number of users I respect who would call you an idiot for calling me a great player. Secondly, I've been only able to track through the thread and post at night. As a result, my posts all come at night, and usually in groups of one or two. I apologize if this isn't enough and if you guys want to see more - my schedule at this point makes that difficult. All of the nights I have been available I have posted at least once. I'm sorry if this makes me scummy to you.

Also, the second sentence of your post reeks of scum. In addition to the idle argument you give against me, you present this stupid non-argument about the number of posts I've made. This seems to me like an attempt to come up with an argument against someone you know is not mafia.

 

[zorbees]

@aska: care to give a preview on why you have a scum read on spiffy, before your big write-up?

 

[zorbees]

Lol I think I see where you're coming from aska. I just looked at all of spiffy's posts in the thread and only a handful have been useful. He has only made a couple of reads, and most everything else has been questioning other people, discussing things that are largely irrelevant, and stuff like that. I also find it odd that he finds it important to note that dle had a scum read on me when he also had scum reads on cypher (who was obviously village), as well as empoof.

 

[Spiffy]

I look forward to clarifying anything you want me to aska. :)

I noted Da Letter El as having a scum read on you as my reason for going back and reading through your posts more carefully. It had nothing to do with justifying my read on you...

And what specifically have I discussed that you think is "irrelevant"?

 

[shinyskarmory]

@shinyskarmory: Firstly, there are a number of users I respect who would call you an idiot for calling me a great player. Secondly, I've been only able to track through the thread and post at night. As a result, my posts all come at night, and usually in groups of one or two. I apologize if this isn't enough and if you guys want to see more - my schedule at this point makes that difficult. All of the nights I have been available I have posted at least once. I'm sorry if this makes me scummy to you.

Also, the second sentence of your post reeks of scum. In addition to the idle argument you give against me, you present this stupid non-argument about the number of posts I've made. This seems to me like an attempt to come up with an argument against someone you know is not mafia.

I'm sorry that I mistook you for a great player. I'll make sure not to do it again.

The fact remains that a seeming lack of activity is a good way to stay under the radar as a mafia member in both regular and NOC games. Posting a lot attracts attention that could lead to a lynch, which is why mafia members tend to remain quieter in my experience IRL (that's where my limited mafia experience comes from- three or four games on smogon and sitting around a table playing mafia at parties). Calling the argument stupid doesn't change that.

Honestly, to me you and Jalmont both fit the bill of mafia- however, I hesitate to target you because you're both experienced players who could contribute a lot to the village if you were active, and if your card came up village everyone would be waving the pitchforks at my figurative door next. I know some argument about "if you're village you shouldn't be afraid of being lynched", but isn't everyone, village or mafia, afraid of being lynched?

I prefer to take things slowly and make sure I don't fuck it up-I dwell on mistakes much longer then I celebrate victories. If that gets me lynched, it's your loss.

 

[JALMONT]

i'm not posting as much because i had school along with other games, but now i've got much more free time to PUT DA TEAM ON MY BACK

yeah expect a lot of stuff from me tonight

 

[zorbees]

@spiffy: only a couple posts fell into the irrelevant category, but those were: previous NOC games, no-lynch, and troll-posts.

Even your response to me calling you out has you largely dodging the issue. You have barely posted any reads on players despite having plenty of time to do so. Right now, I have no idea what your opinion is of Lightwolf, or Metal Sonic, etc. Almost all of your posts that I don't find "irrelevant" fall into one of the following two categories: 1) asking questions to others, posing no new analysis from yourself, and 2) basic responses to people questioning you.

I find it odd that, before aska brought this up, and I looked at it myself, almost no one was even thinking you could be a possible scum. In my opinion, NOC is almost a case of "guilty before proven innocent", so how could it possibly be that pretty much nobody entertained the thought of you being scum? Perhaps it is because your teammates didn't want to put a target on your back?