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I did some thinking about this and was wondering, "If I choose a type, what was the chance I win any battle?" Essentially, this amounts to weighting the win percentages of a given type against every other with the usage stats for that type, and then the sum will be the actual win percentage using that given type.
I did this for two types, as a sort of proof of concept: For Bug, the total win rate against any type it may face (before knowledge of what type it will be) is 48.59% + (9.69 * X )% , where X is the percentage chance of your given Bug team beating another Bug team. If we take X = 50%, then the total win rate for Bug is 53.44%.
For Water, on the other hand, the total win rate against any given type it may face is 44.49% + (6.66 * X)% , and again if we take X to be 50%, we find the total win rate to be 47.82%.
I don't have time to do this for all of the other types by copying and pasting but if you could program it scpinion , it would be interesting to see what comes out. Like, would a type such as Ice sit at a total win rate of 30% or would it be around the same? I believe what we can gather from these stats is that given someone makes two equally good Bug and Water teams, they are more likely to win overall with the Bug team, just due to the positive matchups they find in the random laddering process. Of course, these statistics are based on a large number of players, although weighted towards the more skilled players, wouldn't be able to reflect the entire metagame accurately. I'm sure a skilled player with a good Bug team could win well over 53% of their matches, but on average, as a statistic before any games are played, I think it would be useful. I would be interested to see if my reasoning above is faulty or if there are any other opinions on this.
EDIT: In a perfectly fair metagame, the total win percentage (on average) for each type would be close to 50%, as this would correspond to as scpinion said in his post a lot of tall gray bars.
DoW is correct, however it did take some serious explanation from him (and Antar iirc) to convince me... I wanted to do exactly the type of thing you did in this post.
I was actually very hesitant to use the phrase "win rate" whenever I typed up that original post. Although, the numbers published on the stats pages are win rates. They are not an individual player's chances of winning with a particular type.
You do not know what it feels like to use poison.:P Landorus puts up gravity and switches. I can usually bulk excadrill with my weezing but with gravity weezing just kinda dies like the rest of my team. My only chance to beat excadrill would require two pokemon if sandstorm is also up. and that only might work because Venu can only bulk so many earthquakes. But thankfully not many people use gravity and sandstorm at the same time. But if smooth rock is not banned then I want gravity banned.
Without smooth rock hippowdon needs to first take one turn to switch out. Landorus then puts up gravity. Then it switches out leaving only 2 turns left and only one if hippowdon switched in as a turn. Which is time to do damage to my team but it does a whole lot less than usual if it did have smooth rock.
You do not know what it feels like to use poison.:P Landorus puts up gravity and switches. I can usually bulk excadrill with my weezing but with gravity weezing just kinda dies like the rest of my team. My only chance to beat excadrill would require two pokemon if sandstorm is also up. and that only might work because Venu can only bulk so many earthquakes. But thankfully not many people use gravity and sandstorm at the same time. But if smooth rock is not banned then I want gravity banned.
Without smooth rock hippowdon needs to first take one turn to switch out. Landorus then puts up gravity. Then it switches out leaving only 2 turns left and only one if hippowdon switched in as a turn. Which is time to do damage to my team but it does a whole lot less than usual if it did have smooth rock.
Psychic/Earth Power Landorus is probably worse for poison than Gravity, and in any case poison can't expect to do well in that matchup. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done to help poison there outside of banning half the metagame, so it's honestly best to focus on how landorus affects the more commonly used types.
Psychic/Earth Power Landorus is probably worse for poison than Gravity, and in any case poison can't expect to do well in that matchup. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done to help poison there outside of banning half the metagame, so it's honestly best to focus on how landorus affects the more commonly used types.
Smooth Rock being banned would help most teams alot as excadrill can sweep a lot of things here using it. So just banning it would be allright. Also to me ground just seems too OP having a switch in for everything and having sandstorm turn two of it's key members into behemoths for most types. Even ice has a hard time against ground with lasting sandstorm and excadrill.
In roughly all of my encounters with the Core Challenge, I've been able to deal with ground with no problems. My most recent loss to a ground team was me expecting his garchomp to be rocky helmet, and my weavile not having the necessary health to finish off his last two members, and I choked as I went for ice shard on his mega evolve (he lived with 6%) and won the game.
Other than that, I almost always prepare for excadrill to come in, and bank on icicle crash flinches for the opening hippowdon in a hope to quell any chance of stealth rock coming on (flinches in general also just slow down the sand turns).
Excadrill rarely comes in for free because of the risk of taking 60%
(252 Atk Mamoswine Icicle Crash vs. 4 HP / 4 Def Excadrill: 210-247 (58 - 68.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO)
(252 Atk Mamoswine Ice Shard vs. 4 HP / 4 Def Excadrill: 99-117 (27.4 - 32.4%) -- guaranteed 4HKO)
which leads to either getting free damage on other switchins from mamoswine, or flat out killing the sand setter.
After that, Ice Shard from Weavile/Cloyster usually get the KO.
It's really not hard to play around the excadrill core as Ice when you know what to expect, and have good priority to deal with it; granted, my opponent was fairly upset to learn I ran triple Ice Shard, but I did that without the intention of beating excadrill. I feel it's necessary for mons like weavile and cloyster.
I know this is only a small portion of your post, but having a switch in for everything is not what qualifies a type as OP. As a steel user, I can confidently say that steel has a switch in for everything, yet no one has mentioned nerfing it. Same goes with flying and psychic to a certain extent, although admittedly those types have been talked about for a nerf, whether serious or not.
I will admit certain types have a lot of difficulty with ground, but it's my personal opinion that ground is fine where it stands. I don't see any type being rendered useless and impractical because of 3 extra turns of sand.
You do not know what it feels like to use poison.:P Landorus puts up gravity and switches. I can usually bulk excadrill with my weezing but with gravity weezing just kinda dies like the rest of my team. My only chance to beat excadrill would require two pokemon if sandstorm is also up. and that only might work because Venu can only bulk so many earthquakes. But thankfully not many people use gravity and sandstorm at the same time. But if smooth rock is not banned then I want gravity banned.
Without smooth rock Hippowdon needs to first take one turn to switch out. Landorus then puts up gravity. Then it switches out leaving only 2 turns left and only one if Hippowdon switched in as a turn. Which is time to do damage to my team but it does a whole lot less than usual if it did have smooth rock.
I know very well what Ground does to Poison, Poison is my main type, its just that I'm looking at things for a different perspective, not as a Poison user, I do mention my experiences as a Poison user if I see it fit.
Well yeah if Lando has Psychic/Epower you would be forced to play around it with like gengar and drapion/skuntank. Which is one of the reasons why I run HP Ice gengar, you should try that sometime.
I'm honestly advising you to actually double check before stating anything.
I know this is only a small portion of your post, but having a switch in for everything is not what qualifies a type as OP. As a steel user, I can confidently say that steel has a switch in for everything, yet no one has mentioned nerfing it. Same goes with flying and psychic to a certain extent, although admittedly those types have been talked about for a nerf, whether serious or not.
I will admit certain types have a lot of difficulty with ground, but it's my personal opinion that ground is fine where it stands. I don't see any type being rendered useless and impractical because of 3 extra turns of sand.
Correct me if I'm wrong but you said 3 extra turns of sand, along with the 5 turns it is already given, make no change?
Let me break down to you what happens on a ground vs.. anything basically.
Hippo comes in, Sets rocks( Turn 1 ) Scouts for a move and either heals or whirlwinds, or if the player is confident enough switches out( Turn 2 )
Now if the Hippo stayed in, then it switches out the next turn to the most comfortable and least taking damage mon for that moment. ( Turn 3 ) - This is where the sheer and brutal power pressure starts.
If it didnt switch then it started earlier >_>
I mean we've been discussing only Excadrill's benifit of sand and Hippowdon's bulk and sand setting ability and stuff, all this time... We've been centerallizing 2 Pokemon, when its success is really behind these other 4 incredibly powerful supportive mons.
Mamoswine - Deals with Ice , Flying, Zapdos (on Electric which I feel should have been mentioned ) , Dragon, and like Normal if you run Superpower/Knock off
Gliscor - I've recently noticed a rise in this one's usage OVER Mamoswine. Needless to say its probably one of the best and most reliable Pokemon that can play a stall role successfully.
(Not on steel, but its an advantage for Ground so. Same for Poison. And Normal with Chansey could be slightly problematic to stall, then again Heal Bell PP is only 8 lol )
Garchomp - This one benifit's from sand too, in both of its forms. Just like Froslass in Hail, Garchomp has a similar abillity ( Sand Veil ) which is just like running 2½
BrightPowders. Then there is Rough Skin, that fucks (almost) any physical attack coming its way taking down a decent portion of the Attacker's hp, and then attacking yourself.
Also Neutral to Grass, and Water, so there is that too ;/
Garchomp-Mega - An amazing wallbreaker with its Sand Force ability ( another sand benifitial ability ).
Totally random calx:
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro in Sand: 175-207 (44.4 - 52.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, sandstorm damage, and Leftovers recovery - This used to be a switch-in.
-------------
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 104+ Def Mew in Sand: 213-252 (52.7 - 62.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, sandstorm damage, and Leftovers recovery - Same case.
-------------
On a switch in :
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 88+ Def Ferrothorn in Sand: 175-207 (49.7 - 58.8%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
Next turn:
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 168 SpD Ferrothorn: 284-336 (80.6 - 95.4%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Or just EQ again.
-------------
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 232 HP / 252+ Def Mega Venusaur in Sand: 162-192 (45.1 - 53.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
Oh well.
Ill spare you the time and stop calculating ;/
Gastrodon - Unpredictable, not its moveset(Besides Scald and Recover) nor what kind of wall it is. Has access to Mirror coat, Stockpile, has its SpA raised by every water move that is being landed on it, its pretty fucking amazing :/
Seismitoad - Usually holds Assault Vest/CSpecs ( in my experience, also saw in the stats it has a nice % of holding Leftovers, so there is that ). Awesome movepool, for both offenses.
True that it does not have a reliable recovery, but its ability does recover a 1⁄4 of its HP when hit by a Water move.
Anyway, as you can see, Ground certainly does need a nerf. Acast , I think you should start using Ground for a while, see how it goes, and how surprisngly productive these 3 turns of sand really are.
I know very well what Ground does to Poison, Poison is my main type, its just that I'm looking at things for a different perspective, not as a Poison user, I do mention my experiences as a Poison user if I see it fit.
Well yeah if Lando has Psychic/Epower you would be forced to play around it with like gengar and drapion/skuntank. Which is why I run HP Ice gengar, you should try that sometime.
I'm honestly advising you to actually double check before stating anything.
On other note,
Correct me if I'm wrong but you said 3 extra turns of sand, along with the 5 turns it is already given, make no change?
Let me break down to you what happens on a ground vs.. anything basically.
Hippo comes in, Sets rocks( Turn 1 ) Scouts for a move and either heals or whirlwinds, or if the player is confident enough switches out( Turn 2 )
Now if the Hippo stayed in, then it switches out the next turn to the most comfortable and least taking damage mon for that moment. ( Turn 3 ) - This is where the sheer and brutal power pressure starts.
If it didnt switch then it started earlier >_>
I mean we've been discussing only Excadrill's benifit of sand and Hippowdon's bulk and sand setting ability and stuff, all this time... We've been centerallizing 2 Pokemon, when its success is really behind these other 4 incredibly powerful supportive mons.
Mamoswine - Deals with Ice , Flying, Zapdos (on Electric which I feel should have been mentioned ) , Dragon, and like Normal if you run Superpower/Knock off
Gliscor - I've recently noticed a rise in this one's usage OVER Mamoswine. Needless to say its probably one of the best and most reliable Pokemon that can play a stall role successfully.
(Not on steel, but its an advantage for Ground so. Same for Poison. And Normal with Chansey could be slightly problematic to stall, then again Heal Bell PP is only 8 lol )
Garchomp - This one benifit's from sand too, in both of its forms. Just like Froslass in Hail, Garchomp has a similar abillity ( Sand Veil ) which is just like running 2½
BrightPowders. Then there is Rough Skin, that fucks (almost) any physical attack coming its way taking down a decent portion of the Attacker's hp, and then attacking yourself.
Also Neutral to Grass, and Water, so there is that too ;/
Garchomp-Mega - An amazing wallbreaker with its Sand Force ability ( another sand benifitial ability ).
Totally random calx:
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro in Sand: 175-207 (44.4 - 52.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, sandstorm damage, and Leftovers recovery - This used to be a switch-in.
-------------
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 104+ Def Mew in Sand: 213-252 (52.7 - 62.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, sandstorm damage, and Leftovers recovery - Same case.
-------------
On a switch in :
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 88+ Def Ferrothorn in Sand: 175-207 (49.7 - 58.8%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
Next turn:
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 168 SpD Ferrothorn: 284-336 (80.6 - 95.4%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Or just EQ again.
-------------
252 Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 232 HP / 252+ Def Mega Venusaur in Sand: 162-192 (45.1 - 53.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
Oh well.
Ill spare you the time and stop calculating ;/
Gastrodon - Unpredictable, not its moveset(Besides Scald and Recover) nor what kind of wall it is. Has access to Mirror coat, Stockpile, has its SpA raised by every water move that is being landed on it, its pretty fucking amazing :/
Seismitoad - Usually holds Assault Vest/CSpecs ( in my experience, also saw in the stats it has a nice % of holding Leftovers, so there is that ). Awesome movepool, for both offenses.
True that it does not have a reliable recovery, but its ability does recover a 1⁄4 of its HP when hit by a Water move.
Anyway, as you can see, Ground certainly does need a nerf. Acast , I think you should start using Ground for a while, see how it goes, and how surprisngly productive these 3 turns of sand really are.
I can tell you that I have used ground before, as well as every other type, and it is a very effective type. However, you misunderstood what I said. I did not say that 3 turns of sand don't make a difference. I said that those 3 turns don't render any types impractical or useless. 3 extra turns of sand will make it more difficult for most types to deal with ground, but not a single one of those matchups is comparable to Fairy vs Mega Metagross or Grass/Fighting vs Talonflame. If we ban smooth rock, electric and poison aren't suddenly going to become commonly used types. Their usage will more than likely not even change.
As I keep saying, this is just my personal opinion, but I don't think ground needs a nerf. I welcome arguments for a ground nerf, but just refrain from accusing anyone of being uninformed. If I hadn't used ground before, I wouldn't be expressing my opinion so confidently.
I can tell you that I have used ground before, as well as every other type, and it is a very effective type. However, you misunderstood what I said. I did not say that 3 turns of sand don't make a difference. I said that those 3 turns don't render any types impractical or useless. 3 extra turns of sand will make it more difficult for most types to deal with ground, but not a single one of those matchups is comparable to Fairy vs Mega Metagross or Grass/Fighting vs Talonflame. If we ban smooth rock, electric and poison aren't suddenly going to become commonly used types. Their usage will more than likely not even change.
As I keep saying, this is just my personal opinion, but I don't think ground needs a nerf. I welcome arguments for a ground nerf, but just refrain from accusing anyone of being uninformed. If I hadn't used ground before, I wouldn't be expressing my opinion so confidently.
True, pretty much contadicted myself there, but I only said that because it seemed to -me- you didn't use it as much, cause you do not seem to understand how much it does benifit from it.
3 turns of sand may sound like nothing to others or not much to you.
And yes I agree with you there probably wont be a rise in usage of the types ground usually demolishes, if Smooth Rock were to be banned.
But I mean, when the Ground user has 5 turns of sand, instead of 8 turns, It gets to set rocks, do something else, or immidietly switch out, letting a Pokemon with a brutal base stat of 135 Atk meanwhile it outspeeds every single pokemon in this metagame besides like scarf Weavile/DeoS, and a boost fo LO/Choice Band, and SD on the back...
AND the rest of a generic ground team...... Are you being serious?
And if you get to switch out turn 2, you literally get to abuse this monster for 6 turns, and I can GUARANTEE, you get at LEAST 2 kills with Excadrill ( unless you horribly misplay that is ) , on any god damn type.
I have to agree there. You argue acast that banning smooth rock won't make electric and poison vs ground anyless one-sided. But can you honestly say that fairy vs steel and grass vs fire are any less one-sided with mega-gross and Talonflame banned? If they are then it's only slightly, which all that will likely happen to poison and ground too.
But the smooth rock ban is meant to help all types, not just those 2. There are many other types such as bug, fairy, etc that would benefit from fewer turns of Sand Rush excadrill and that is what I believe is the focus
Anyway, lower ladder or not, you can see what the current ground team does to an Ice team built of the most common mons ( Besides one, which has been placed 9th according to stats. )
yeah avalugg is really good about beating excadrill, and then punishing a switchin with avalanche. Rocky Helmet sets are the best, and if you dodge a flinch you can recover more than you take, while dropping rocky helmet damage constantly
The impact of weather in the competitive scene, as we've learned from previous generations, is overwhelming. In the past, we've seen bans on pokemon with weather inducing abilities(Politoad), and pokemon that have been banned due to being too good while abusing said weather(Excadrill, Kingdra).
In the past, these pokemon were banned due to being way too difficult to play around due to their semi unpredictability, despite such limited movepools(mixed Kingdra, Swords Dance Excadrill), especially under the effects of permanent weather. However, while it is important to state the obvious, that being that we no longer have the mechanics to support an infinite amount of weather turns, it is also worth noting that prolonged weather opens several more doors to abuse weather reliant abilities, most notably, Sand Rush.
In the recent past, we have already banned Damp Rock for Water teams. Why? Because not only does Water have a plethora of Swift Swimmers to abuse, but because the combination of the speed boost and an increase to the power of their main STAB was deemed to be way too powerful, and sometimes, the only way to prevent a sweep is to make constant switches in hopes to stall out the weather and try to gain momentum once you have accomplished a round of stalling.
When we look at the Ground typing, we only see two Sand Rush abusers(one of which has less than .70% usage, but it is still worth mentioning) and no inherently stronger Ground type moves due to an active sandstorm, unlike rain. However, when we take a closer look at the type, we see another two weather reliant abilities in Sand Force and Sand Veil. While the list of viable Ground types that can abuse the abilities without sacrificing a much better ability is only two, and both are Mega Evolutions(regular Garchomp, however, can be run alongside Mega Steelix). Now, how are these two abilities relevant to the discussion? Simply because prolonged weather can let a Ground user abuse a multitude of sand abusing abilities. One of the most fearsome threats on the type outside of Landorus-Incarnate or Excadrill is mixed Mega Garchomp.
I believe that a combination of weather abusing abilities to destroy walls for Excadrill while giving Excadrill enough speed to out speed the whole viable scarfed meta and having walls to switch into most things is what is breaking the type.
Lets go into some Garchomp damage calculations against the bulkiest of walls in the tier, in and out of sand.
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon in Sand: 184-217 (43.9 - 51.7%) -- 69.9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 142-168 (33.8 - 40%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Hippowdon: 216-255 (51.5 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro in Sand: 193-228 (49.1 - 58%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 148-175 (37.6 - 44.5%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Slowbro: 198-234 (50.3 - 59.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Mandibuzz in Sand: 266-314 (62.8 - 74.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Mandibuzz: 204-242 (48.2 - 57.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Skarmory: 248-292 (74.2 - 87.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Avalugg: 340-402 (86.5 - 102.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Swampert in Sand: 220-261 (54.8 - 65%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Swampert: 169-201 (42.1 - 50.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Swampert: 180-213 (44.8 - 53.1%) -- 28.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Quagsire in Sand: 229-270 (58.1 - 68.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Quagsire: 177-208 (44.9 - 52.7%) -- 25.8% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Quagsire: 232-274 (58.8 - 69.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
i can keep on going with this, but there is really no point.
Now why is Garchomp so important when some of the biggest complaints are solely centered around Excadrill? Because, as you just saw, Mega Garchomp, especially under sand, can completely destroy walls for Excadrill to aid him in a sweep. Furthermore, when we look at the most current usage statistics, we find this lineup: Hippowdon, the most used mon on Ground teams and the weather setter, at an 89% usage, while 87% of those are holding a Smooth Rock. Next in line is the weather sweeper, Excadrill, with a usage of 86%. Sand Rush is the chosen ability on 95% of teams, while having 56% of them hold a Life Orb and 31% holding a Choice Band. Since Excadrill generally forces switches, it is also noteworthy to add that 33% of them carry Swords Dance. Next on line we have a secondary wall breaker with a usage of 77% in Landorus-Incarnate, where 46% of them are running Gravity. Finally, with a usage of 68% and a whopping 77% of them holding a Mega Stone, we have Garchomp.
The type can sweep most teams with just these tools, and we haven't even begun to look at all of their viable walls(which we won't).
Now, when we finally take a look at Excadrill, we see that he can 2HKO even the bulkiest of the tier, especially with Gravity support, so either something dies to a sack, or a switch in is 2HKOd. Basically, every time that Excadrill comes in under sand can guarantee at least one thing dying. I won't bombard us with a hundred damage calcs, but here are some notable ones
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 164-192 (41.6 - 48.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 324-382 (82.2 - 96.9%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 186-220 (47.2 - 55.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 185-218 (43.7 - 51.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 367-434 (86.7 - 102.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 214-252 (50.5 - 59.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 314-372 (94 - 111.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Now, I'm not really sure how to transition this into a closing, but here is a replay of skillfull abuse of sand+ Gravity against frnen. Things to note before watching: like some one new, I had forgotten that Garchomp broke Gliscor and that I could have swept with Rock Slide in the first place, and that I was salty at frnen because i came across him multiple times that day to lose to tons of hax.
The impact of weather in the competitive scene, as we've learned from previous generations, is overwhelming. In the past, we've seen bans on pokemon with weather inducing abilities(Politoad), and pokemon that have been banned due to being too good while abusing said weather(Excadrill, Kingdra).
In the past, these pokemon were banned due to being way too difficult to play around due to their semi unpredictability, despite such limited movepools(mixed Kingdra, Swords Dance Excadrill), especially under the effects of permanent weather. However, while it is important to state the obvious, that being that we no longer have the mechanics to support an infinite amount of weather turns, it is also worth noting that prolonged weather opens several more doors to abuse weather reliant abilities, most notably, Sand Rush.
In the recent past, we have already banned Damp Rock for Water teams. Why? Because not only does Water have a plethora of Swift Swimmers to abuse, but because the combination of the speed boost and an increase to the power of their main STAB was deemed to be way too powerful, and sometimes, the only way to prevent a sweep is to make constant switches in hopes to stall out the weather and try to gain momentum once you have accomplished a round of stalling.
When we look at the Ground typing, we only see two Sand Rush abusers(one of which has less than .70% usage, but it is still worth mentioning) and no inherently stronger Ground type moves due to an active sandstorm, unlike rain. However, when we take a closer look at the type, we see another two weather reliant abilities in Sand Force and Sand Veil. While the list of viable Ground types that can abuse the abilities without sacrificing a much better ability is only two, and both are Mega Evolutions(regular Garchomp, however, can be run alongside Mega Steelix). Now, how are these two abilities relevant to the discussion? Simply because prolonged weather can let a Ground user abuse a multitude of sand abusing abilities. One of the most fearsome threats on the type outside of Landorus-Incarnate or Excadrill is mixed Mega Garchomp.
I believe that a combination of weather abusing abilities to destroy walls for Excadrill while giving Excadrill enough speed to out speed the whole viable scarfed meta and having walls to switch into most things is what is breaking the type.
Lets go into some Garchomp damage calculations against the bulkiest of walls in the tier, in and out of sand.
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon in Sand: 184-217 (43.9 - 51.7%) -- 69.9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 142-168 (33.8 - 40%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Hippowdon: 216-255 (51.5 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro in Sand: 193-228 (49.1 - 58%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 148-175 (37.6 - 44.5%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Slowbro: 198-234 (50.3 - 59.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Mandibuzz in Sand: 266-314 (62.8 - 74.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Stone Edge vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Mandibuzz: 204-242 (48.2 - 57.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Skarmory: 248-292 (74.2 - 87.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Fire Blast vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Avalugg: 340-402 (86.5 - 102.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Swampert in Sand: 220-261 (54.8 - 65%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Swampert: 169-201 (42.1 - 50.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Swampert: 180-213 (44.8 - 53.1%) -- 28.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Sand Force Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Quagsire in Sand: 229-270 (58.1 - 68.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Mega Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Quagsire: 177-208 (44.9 - 52.7%) -- 25.8% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
4 SpA Mega Garchomp Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Quagsire: 232-274 (58.8 - 69.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
i can keep on going with this, but there is really no point.
Now why is Garchomp so important when some of the biggest complaints are solely centered around Excadrill? Because, as you just saw, Mega Garchomp, especially under sand, can completely destroy walls for Excadrill to aid him in a sweep. Furthermore, when we look at the most current usage statistics, we find this lineup: Hippowdon, the most used mon on Ground teams and the weather setter, at an 89% usage, while 87% of those are holding a Smooth Rock. Next in line is the weather sweeper, Excadrill, with a usage of 86%. Sand Rush is the chosen ability on 95% of teams, while having 56% of them hold a Life Orb and 31% holding a Choice Band. Since Excadrill generally forces switches, it is also noteworthy to add that 33% of them carry Swords Dance. Next on line we have a secondary wall breaker with a usage of 77% in Landorus-Incarnate, where 46% of them are running Gravity. Finally, with a usage of 68% and a whopping 77% of them holding a Mega Stone, we have Garchomp.
The type can sweep most teams with just these tools, and we haven't even begun to look at all of their viable walls(which we won't).
Now, when we finally take a look at Excadrill, we see that he can 2HKO even the bulkiest of the tier, especially with Gravity support, so either something dies to a sack, or a switch in is 2HKOd. Basically, every time that Excadrill comes in under sand can guarantee at least one thing dying. I won't bombard us with a hundred damage calcs, but here are some notable ones
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 164-192 (41.6 - 48.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 324-382 (82.2 - 96.9%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 186-220 (47.2 - 55.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and sandstorm damage
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 185-218 (43.7 - 51.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 367-434 (86.7 - 102.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 214-252 (50.5 - 59.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 314-372 (94 - 111.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Now, I'm not really sure how to transition this into a closing, but here is a replay of skillfull abuse of sand+ Gravity against frnen. Things to note before watching: like some one new, I had forgotten that Garchomp broke Gliscor and that I could have swept with Rock Slide in the first place, and that I was salty at frnen because i came across him multiple times that day to lose to tons of hax.
yeah avalugg is really good about beating excadrill, and then punishing a switchin with avalanche. Rocky Helmet sets are the best, and if you dodge a flinch you can recover more than you take, while dropping rocky helmet damage constantly
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Iron Head vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Avalugg: 204-242 (51.9 - 61.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after sandstorm damage and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Choice Band Excadrill Iron Head vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Avalugg: 204-242 (51.9 - 61.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after sandstorm damage and Leftovers recovery
yeah avalugg is really good about beating excadrill, and then punishing a switchin with avalanche. Rocky Helmet sets are the best, and if you dodge a flinch you can recover more than you take, while dropping rocky helmet damage constantly
Avalugg cannot reliably beat Excadrill. In fact, versus even a moderately mediocre player, Avalugg will never beat Excadrill. Due to the combination of Hippowdon and Seismitoad/Gastrodon, Ground will almost always get rocks up at least once during the battle. If you're running Avalugg, then he is your hazard remover. Based on the damage calcs that were provided, it is shown that Excadrill cannot OHKO an Avalugg after rocks. So guess what? A simple switch to Landorus is all that is needed on the Earthquake to beat Avalugg, or a switch into Gastrodon and a double switch into Landorus if you're scared of Avalanche.
Basically, every time that Excadrill comes in, some thing dies on ice. Here is an example of Ice V Ground that shows the 50/50 Ice/Water moves turn one for rocks while showing the need to sack the whole team every time that Excadrill comes in. While hax shouldn't be part of a discussion, it should also be noteworthy that state that the 30% to flinch or both of his coverage moves can also mean that your Excadrill check can fall to the power of friendship, as shown on the replay.
One of my Ice friends during the Core challenge regularly scolded me for not running Avalugg as a hazard remover, and brandished his joy in rocky helmet dealing with excadrill in all of his encounters. At the end of the day, priority helps beat excadrill, and the point of my argument was that ice isn't have the worst time against sand rush excadrill.
Omniax, tbh I disagree. Gravity wrecks a lot of the weaker types in the metgames, as Cell mentioned. Especially when the person is skilled, and can easily swich excadrill in wih sand up and graviy at the same time, LO variants namely can 2ko majority of the metagame, as for band, usually easier to wall since majority of the time they're locked onto 1 attack, but a similar situation. Excadrill itself can usually be walled majority of the time if the types your against aren't fairy and ice. Especially again, when run banded, they're usually easier. Gravity would not be a bad ban. However, the stats on ground are super unbalanced, and there's a huge percentage of the same pokes, when frankly, a lot more are very viable. It can be annoying to see the same exact teams on the ladder, and ground is probably the biggest example. Tbh, Lando I just got banned from OU, we could suspect it here, since, like excadrill, wrecks a shit ton of the metagame, and the primary gravity setter/special wallbreaker on most ground teams. Think for a minute, it can single handly 6-0'd steel if you play right, it can wreck fairy if you run sludge wave, it can usually wreck electric upon using gravity on zapdos, ect, this list can go on about how many types in particular it destroys. It would be nice for once to actually see some variety in ground teams. That's why I'm suggestion suspect lando i for monotype, meaning, flying as well, but primarily ground.
Just going off topic, I did wanna talk about allowing kyurem w back on ice again. Ice at the moment is the lowest used type, and it's exteremely difficult (see current core challenge) to reach 1500s. Even people who are extremely experienced in the game can admit ice has it hard. With Kyurem w back, you have a lot of perks. It can stand its own against steel teams, and probably bug teams as well, 2 of its many terrible matchups according to the website. Sure it may have a monsterous 170 special attack, and an amazing movepull, but, it does not wreck the entire metagame. Many sweepers, such as excadrill, azumarill, and terrakion, can definatley check it (azumarill namely). In terms of what it could devastate, poison already has a hard time with kyurem b, due to mold breaker, kyurem w wouldn't make much of a difference, unless your talking pouding sp def golbats. E;ectric is a matchup ice can usually hold its own in, again mostly bc of kyurem b, so once again, not much of a difference. Fairy will probably actually have an easier time, bc as mentioned a second ago, azumarill can check it fairly well. Your only real loss would be klefki, but even kyurem b's earth power would still wreck. I hope some of these points help, feel free to add on or discuss.
