Ladder Monotype [Read post #393 for Tiering Updates]

[vanderlylic]

What an interesting month for Grass, having risen up to 3.76% usage; the highest since the stats were introduced! It now sits in a cluster with Fairy, Fire and Ghost. Matchups for Grass have also improved dramatically, going from 10 terrible/bad matchups to 6 terrible bad/matchups, and even managed another awesome matchup against Rock. Again, this is the best Grass has been in the matchups since the stats were introduced, which is quite significant. Perhaps the recent nerfs to Flying, Psychic, Steel, the loss of Greninja and the rise of Ground has all contributed to the success, or maybe Grass users are just getting better, or more people are trying Grass and finding its usable.

Which leads me to my next point about a trend I'm going to call Generic Balanced Grass. For the last three months (four if you include the month Skymin was banned) the top 6 used Grass Pokemon haven't changed: Ferrothorn, Breloom, Venusaur, Serperior, Cradily, and Whimsicott. Perhaps this could explain why the matchup stats are improving: people are just using better teams, namely variations of the above Balanced Grass team.

Also interesting, however not as important, is the next 7 most used Pokemon on Grass (Trevenant, Sceptile, Rotom-Mow, Celebi, Ludicolo, Shiftry and Roserade) haven't changed at all this year; and together with the above six, are the only Grass pokemon to rise about 10% usage for any given month. People still aren't using Tangrowth much (3.72%) despite it being B rank in the viability rankings (perhaps an idea for a core challenge), but Trevenant has risen to 35% usage despite being D rank, mainly being used as a SpDef wall.

Apart from my big rant about Grass, I'm really feeling sorry for Ice; it's just so bad at the moment and I wish there was something that could be done to give it a boost. Rock isn't that great either.

As far as banning and nerfs, which I haven't really commented upon, I would support a ban of Genesect, Zard-X and maybe a ban of Smooth Rock, however I feel alternative ban (if deemed necessary) would be more effective for Ground. I don't have anything new to add to the numerous arguments that have already been canvased on these bans. Probably wait another month before any more bans were implemented and see what the matchups, stats and users say at the start of July.

 

[urkerab]

I'd like to make a note about the type analyses / matchup tables- Ground, Flying, and Bug have NO matchups that are Bad or Terrible-- implying they have an even or good chance against every other type in the metagame.

What confuses me is how they can overcome the type imbalances.

• Ground should be really weak against Grass but is equal, weak against Ice but is good, weak against Water but is only somewhat bad, and weak against Bug but doesn't quite make bad.
• Flying should be really weak against Electric but is slightly good, really weak against rock but is equal, weak against Ice but is only slightly bad, weak against Steel but is almost good.
• Bug should be really weak against Flying but doesn't quite make bad, really weak against Fire but is only somewhat bad, weak against Steel but is only somewhat bad, weak against Ghost but is only somewhat bad, weak against Fighting but is slightly good, weak against Fairy but is somewhat good, weak against Rock but is nearly good, weak against Poison but is awesome.

Wait, Poison resists Bug, but Bug is awesome against it in Monotype? Someone please clear up my confusion.

 

[RZL]

What confuses me is how they can overcome the type imbalances.

• Ground should be really weak against Grass but is equal, weak against Ice but is good, weak against Water but is only somewhat bad, and weak against Bug but doesn't quite make bad.
• Flying should be really weak against Electric but is slightly good, really weak against rock but is equal, weak against Ice but is only slightly bad, weak against Steel but is almost good.
• Bug should be really weak against Flying but doesn't quite make bad, really weak against Fire but is only somewhat bad, weak against Steel but is only somewhat bad, weak against Ghost but is only somewhat bad, weak against Fighting but is slightly good, weak against Fairy but is somewhat good, weak against Rock but is nearly good, weak against Poison but is awesome.

Wait, Poison resists Bug, but Bug is awesome against it in Monotype? Someone please clear up my confusion.

Ground has excellent coverage against types it is weak to, same with Flying, and Bug. There are many types that can do this. Coverage is very important, therefore if a type cannot cover its weaknesses, it typically is not a very good type. This is true with poison. Earthquake is also common coverage and this hampers Poison greatly.

 

[Acast]

What confuses me is how they can overcome the type imbalances.

• Ground should be really weak against Grass but is equal, weak against Ice but is good, weak against Water but is only somewhat bad, and weak against Bug but doesn't quite make bad.
• Flying should be really weak against Electric but is slightly good, really weak against rock but is equal, weak against Ice but is only slightly bad, weak against Steel but is almost good.
• Bug should be really weak against Flying but doesn't quite make bad, really weak against Fire but is only somewhat bad, weak against Steel but is only somewhat bad, weak against Ghost but is only somewhat bad, weak against Fighting but is slightly good, weak against Fairy but is somewhat good, weak against Rock but is nearly good, weak against Poison but is awesome.

Wait, Poison resists Bug, but Bug is awesome against it in Monotype? Someone please clear up my confusion.

The main thing with Flying teams is that they don't use Flying moves very often, if at all. The only Flying moves you will regularly see are Brave Bird on Skarmory and Air Slash on Togekiss, neither of which are used as very heavy hitters. Therefore, Steel resisting Flying moves is fairly irrelevant in that matchup.

What RZL stated was completely true. Coverage (both offensive and defensive) is what really matters in monotype. Type matchups are a relatively small part of what makes one type good versus another. Flying has multiple ground types as well as a Volt Absorb user to negate Electric attacks, putting the Flying vs Electric matchup in Flying's favor despite the overall type disadvantage.

If you're ever confused about why a type is good versus another when it seems like it shouldn't be, it helps to look at what pokemon and moves are used on each type and how those pokemon/moves would fair against the other type in question. For example, Landorus (either form) would have a massive advantage against Electric and Rock teams, which is part of the reason why Landorus is on most Flying teams. In the Ground vs Grass matchup, I'd say the big advantage Ground has is Mamoswine. Its STAB Ice moves can rip through Grass teams, giving Ground a leg up on Grass.

 

[Sabella]

so whens ground getting nerfed again?

 

[Dece1t]

xbooty it actually went down this month by a fair amount. if anything though, I'd look at bug a bit though.

 

[Alexis Breeze]

What confuses me is how they can overcome the type imbalances.

• Ground should be really weak against Grass but is equal, weak against Ice but is good, weak against Water but is only somewhat bad, and weak against Bug but doesn't quite make bad.
• Flying should be really weak against Electric but is slightly good, really weak against rock but is equal, weak against Ice but is only slightly bad, weak against Steel but is almost good.
• Bug should be really weak against Flying but doesn't quite make bad, really weak against Fire but is only somewhat bad, weak against Steel but is only somewhat bad, weak against Ghost but is only somewhat bad, weak against Fighting but is slightly good, weak against Fairy but is somewhat good, weak against Rock but is nearly good, weak against Poison but is awesome.

Wait, Poison resists Bug, but Bug is awesome against it in Monotype? Someone please clear up my confusion.

Please, it's been said before. Don't take the statistics as a holy grail. These are calculated from all matches in a month, meaning the very few users Rock gets for example, are all mixed together. Of course an inexperienced Rock user is going to lose to a decent Flying team. All of these matches count towards the stats that you see. While some of these matchup stats somewhat show the true picture, I'd be more careful to get anything from lesser types because of the smaller user pool/greater noob:advanced user ratio.

tl;dr Don't jump into conclusions without playing the meta at a decent level.

 

[scpinion]

Please, it's been said before. Don't take the statistics as a holy grail. These are calculated from all matches in a month, meaning the very few users Rock gets for example, are all mixed together. Of course an inexperienced Rock user is going to lose to a decent Flying team. All of these matches count towards the stats that you see. While some of these matchup stats somewhat show the true picture, I'd be more careful to get anything from lesser types because of the smaller user pool/greater noob:advanced user ratio.

tl;dr Don't jump into conclusions without playing the meta at a decent level.

The stats are weighted to prevent the bias you are referring to.

http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/weighted-stats-faq.3478570/

 

[Kammi]

Update on the Ground situation that was previously held off: Landorus-i has been banned from OU. Fun stuff.

tagging Acast for his thoughts

 

[Acast]

As a few people have previously stated, Landorus-I doesn't operate in Monotype on the same level as it does in OU. It's a very good pokemon, but it's much more predictable in Monotype because Ground teams have so many good physical attackers that there is little reason to run Landorus-I as anything but a special attacker.
My opinion has been all over the place on this Ground nerf debate, but for now I think Ground is honestly fine as it is.
Some will love me for saying this next thing, and others will hate me, but I think Mega Charizard X is the thing that needs the most attention right now. Not because Flying needs a nerf, but because Charizard X on its own may just be too good for our metagame. The argument has been made that if we ban it, another DDance sweeper will just take its place and have to be banned too. I say "so be it". We can deal with the other DDance sweepers if and when they become a problem. Those are just my thoughts at the moment.
PS: This topic has caused some very heated discussions in the past, so if we are going to debate Charizard X, doing it respectfully would be greatly appreciated.

 

[DoW]

As a few people have previously stated, Landorus-I doesn't operate in Monotype on the same level as it does in OU. It's a very good pokemon, but it's much more predictable in Monotype because Ground teams have so many good physical attackers that there is little reason to run Landorus-I as anything but a special attacker.
My opinion has been all over the place on this Ground nerf debate, but for now I think Ground is honestly fine as it is.
Some will love me for saying this next thing, and others will hate me, but I think Mega Charizard X is the thing that needs the most attention right now. Not because Flying needs a nerf, but because Charizard X on its own may just be too good for our metagame. The argument has been made that if we ban it, another DDance sweeper will just take its place and have to be banned too. I say "so be it". We can deal with the other DDance sweepers if and when they become a problem. Those are just my thoughts at the moment.
PS: This topic has caused some very heated discussions in the past, so if we are going to debate Charizard X, doing it respectfully would be greatly appreciated.

Adding to what has been said on Landorus, in OU it was common to see moves such as calm mind, rock polish, knock off, hidden power ice, stealth rock, or even things like sub or rock slide occasionally. While it sometimes runs these kinds of moves on flying teams, it's very rare to see Landorus run any moves outside of earth power, focus blast, sludge wave, psychic and gravity on ground teams. This makes it far easier to play around.

I'm honestly not sure that Zard X is all that broken. It's a very strong pokemon, but despite that I don't actually sweep with it all that often: Normally, even if it does get into a very strong position against a team weak to it, it will still end up KOing itself from flare blitz getting only two or three KOs. It's certainly a good idea to discuss it, but I don't really think it needs a ban.

 

[Alexis Breeze]

I think what's missing in Monotype for Landorus-I to be "broken" is the support he gets in OU. Common Pursuit trappers or other cores help him deal with checks and counters (Ex. Keldeo for Mamoswine). In Ground mono, most of his teammates share his weaknesses and don't offer the same variety (Ex. whatever is weak to EP is also gonna be weak to Exca/Chomp/etc.)

 

[Anttya]

Who needs Rock Polish Lando when you can abuse Band Excadrill in Sand?? Heck, if that's not good enough slap on Gravity and say GG

 

[Fírnen]

Who needs Rock Polish Lando when you can abuse Band Excadrill in Sand?? Heck, if that's not good enough slap on Gravity and say GG

Against Fighting ;)
If you set up well Landorus, one Rock Polish, you can sweep the fighting team (Just hurt before AV Conckeldurr and Scrafty).

It's just my opinion and i play it like this.


I'd like to say one thing too, it's my opinion too but deserve to be listen, it's about stats, Flying isn't the most used type. Why? Because Flying core challenge was overplayed (because it's one of the most cc? Perhaps) and so, the 0.27% or more is there because a lot of people played the challenge core.
I think Bug is the most used type.


With Acast thought, i'm totally agree with that, indeed, everyone was saying before stats than Ground was broken, it was funny because it's really not.
And now just try some weeks play a metagame without M-Zard X for flying type to see what's the impact on it.
I didn't ask a ban, i ask a test, it's different, if there is nothing who change, just put again M-Zard X.

 

[Cell]

Partly cloudy 30% chance of rain here with your local sand meanie and his biased opinions. Instead of a Smooth Rock or a Landorus ban I support a type ban for gravity so that the majority of the less used types like Electric, Fire, Ghost, and Poison have a playable match up against Ground instead of the Ground user waiting for a chance to get sand and Gravity up and having a guaranteed win if they play right.

 

[scpinion]

I was chatting with a couple of people about the monotype metagame and whether it was healthy. Here is some of the stuff that came from it. These are just my opinions...

I'm going to put the whole thing in hide tags so I don't clog up the thread

We are very close to a healthy metagame!!

With the most recent bans, I think our meta is trending in the correct direction. I base this on the matchup stats that can be found on the type analysis page.

Below are the type match ups, as a function of time, for the Top 10 types, which are used in ~75% of the matches on our ladder. There is a clear separation between these types, and the other 8 as far as usage goes.

If you're unfamiliar with the way these graphs work:
A red (or dark red) bar indicates a type matchup that is not in favor of that type (<40% win rate).
The converse is true for green (or dark green) bars (>60% win rate).
Gray bars indicate an even matchup: 40% < (win rate) < 60%

In an ideal metagame, we would see most of the top types with very tall gray bars.

This means they have even match ups with most types and the games should (theoretically) come down to player skill.

Prepare for a bunch of images! I encourage you to look at each one.

Note our most recent bans occurred mid-April and affected Flying, Water, Dark, Psychic and Steel directly.

Most importantly, notice which types are not like the others (tall gray bars being the norm).

Ground, very clearly, has an advantage over the rest of the metagame. This is precisely why I support a type ban for Smooth Rock. Hopefully, it would slightly nerf Ground and bring it back toward the pack.

Psychic seems to be trending toward Ground, but I think this could change next month as many of the light green match ups are things that almost make it into the gray category.

Flying

Bug

Psychic

Fighting

Ground

Dragon

Water

Normal

Steel

Dark

It is all just some food for thought. What is says for me is that we are very, very close to a healthy metagame. I'm curious if someone else draws a different conclusion from this type of stuff?

 

[BibarelThump]

I've had a ridiculous amount of fun with the Core Challenge, peaked 1303 today alone, current rank stands at 18 wins, 8 losses. lapras has become one of my new favorites, as has weavile.

 

[Entei]

Good for you BibarelThump .
Hope you do even better!

Rip I didn't get alerts for updates in this thread for a while ;/

On other note, when is AM Cell getting Tiering Memer badge??
This man, is a god.

 

[Freeroamer]

I'm probs being memed here but what the hell

Don't agree with a ban for Gravity, as while you reduce the team support for Excadrill somewhat Gravity is far from a necessity on Ground teams, I haven't ran it in forever cos I prefer having more coverage. On that note Landorus can induce Gravity somewhat via Smack Down which still has the benefit that Rock Slide had of OHKOing Zard Y most of the time but is fun for catching Rotom formes and Bronzong etc. on the switch then smacking shit with Earth Power. Also cool for breaking Skarm's Sturdy and not having to rely on Focus Blast to beat it. It's a fun option n_n

 

[Entei]

Cough

0 Atk Life Orb Landorus Smack Down vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Charizard Y: 281-333 (94.6 - 112.1%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO

Cough

 

[Freeroamer]

I'm probs being memed here but what the hell

Don't agree with a ban for Gravity, as while you reduce the team support for Excadrill somewhat Gravity is far from a necessity on Ground teams, I haven't ran it in forever cos I prefer having more coverage. On that note Landorus can induce Gravity somewhat via Smack Down which still has the benefit that Rock Slide had of OHKOing Zard Y most of the time but is fun for catching Rotom formes and Bronzong etc. on the switch then smacking shit with Earth Power. Also cool for breaking Skarm's Sturdy and not having to rely on Focus Blast to beat it. It's a fun option n_n

 

[vanderlylic]

I was chatting with a couple of people about the monotype metagame and whether it was healthy. Here is some of the stuff that came from it. These are just my opinions...

I'm going to put the whole thing in hide tags so I don't clog up the thread

We are very close to a healthy metagame!!

With the most recent bans, I think our meta is trending in the correct direction. I base this on the matchup stats that can be found on the type analysis page.

Below are the type match ups, as a function of time, for the Top 10 types, which are used in ~75% of the matches on our ladder. There is a clear separation between these types, and the other 8 as far as usage goes.

If you're unfamiliar with the way these graphs work:
A red (or dark red) bar indicates a type matchup that is not in favor of that type (<40% win rate).
The converse is true for green (or dark green) bars (>60% win rate).
Gray bars indicate an even matchup: 40% < (win rate) < 60%

In an ideal metagame, we would see most of the top types with very tall gray bars.

This means they have even match ups with most types and the games should (theoretically) come down to player skill.

Prepare for a bunch of images! I encourage you to look at each one.

Note our most recent bans occurred mid-April and affected Flying, Water, Dark, Psychic and Steel directly.

Most importantly, notice which types are not like the others (tall gray bars being the norm).

Ground, very clearly, has an advantage over the rest of the metagame. This is precisely why I support a type ban for Smooth Rock. Hopefully, it would slightly nerf Ground and bring it back toward the pack.

Psychic seems to be trending toward Ground, but I think this could change next month as many of the light green match ups are things that almost make it into the gray category.

Flying

Bug

Psychic

Fighting

Ground

Dragon

Water

Normal

Steel

Dark

It is all just some food for thought. What is says for me is that we are very, very close to a healthy metagame. I'm curious if someone else draws a different conclusion from this type of stuff?

I did some thinking about this and was wondering, "If I choose a type, what was the chance I win any battle?" Essentially, this amounts to weighting the win percentages of a given type against every other with the usage stats for that type, and then the sum will be the actual win percentage using that given type.

I did this for two types, as a sort of proof of concept: For Bug, the total win rate against any type it may face (before knowledge of what type it will be) is 48.59% + (9.69 * X )% , where X is the percentage chance of your given Bug team beating another Bug team. If we take X = 50%, then the total win rate for Bug is 53.44%.
For Water, on the other hand, the total win rate against any given type it may face is 44.49% + (6.66 * X)% , and again if we take X to be 50%, we find the total win rate to be 47.82%.

I don't have time to do this for all of the other types by copying and pasting but if you could program it scpinion , it would be interesting to see what comes out. Like, would a type such as Ice sit at a total win rate of 30% or would it be around the same? I believe what we can gather from these stats is that given someone makes two equally good Bug and Water teams, they are more likely to win overall with the Bug team, just due to the positive matchups they find in the random laddering process. Of course, these statistics are based on a large number of players, although weighted towards the more skilled players, wouldn't be able to reflect the entire metagame accurately. I'm sure a skilled player with a good Bug team could win well over 53% of their matches, but on average, as a statistic before any games are played, I think it would be useful. I would be interested to see if my reasoning above is faulty or if there are any other opinions on this.

EDIT: In a perfectly fair metagame, the total win percentage (on average) for each type would be close to 50%, as this would correspond to as scpinion said in his post a lot of tall gray bars.

 

[Tyke]

Partly cloudy 30% chance of rain here with your local sand meanie and his biased opinions. Instead of a Smooth Rock or a Landorus ban I support a type ban for gravity so that the majority of the less used types like Electric, Fire, Ghost, and Poison have a playable match up against Ground instead of the Ground user waiting for a chance to get sand and Gravity up and haoving a guaranteed win if they play right.

As someone who's laddered pretty extensively with electric, I support this.

There's literally nothing one can do once gravity is set up but weep; it gives Lando a couple free kills and leaves Excadrill to come in an sweep.

 

[Entei]

As someone who's laddered pretty extensively with electric, I support this.

There's literally nothing one can do once gravity is set up but weep; it gives Lando a couple free kills and leaves Excadrill to come in an sweep.

You do realize that banning a move that less that half of landorus users on ground use, is not going to change much, right?

 

[DoW]

I did some thinking about this and was wondering, "If I choose a type, what was the chance I win any battle?" Essentially, this amounts to weighting the win percentages of a given type against every other with the usage stats for that type, and then the sum will be the actual win percentage using that given type.

I did this for two types, as a sort of proof of concept: For Bug, the total win rate against any type it may face (before knowledge of what type it will be) is 48.59% + (9.69 * X )% , where X is the percentage chance of your given Bug team beating another Bug team. If we take X = 50%, then the total win rate for Bug is 53.44%.
For Water, on the other hand, the total win rate against any given type it may face is 44.49% + (6.66 * X)% , and again if we take X to be 50%, we find the total win rate to be 47.82%.

I don't have time to do this for all of the other types by copying and pasting but if you could program it scpinion , it would be interesting to see what comes out. Like, would a type such as Ice sit at a total win rate of 30% or would it be around the same? I believe what we can gather from these stats is that given someone makes two equally good Bug and Water teams, they are more likely to win overall with the Bug team, just due to the positive matchups they find in the random laddering process. Of course, these statistics are based on a large number of players, although weighted towards the more skilled players, wouldn't be able to reflect the entire metagame accurately. I'm sure a skilled player with a good Bug team could win well over 53% of their matches, but on average, as a statistic before any games are played, I think it would be useful. I would be interested to see if my reasoning above is faulty or if there are any other opinions on this.

EDIT: In a perfectly fair metagame, the total win percentage (on average) for each type would be close to 50%, as this would correspond to as scpinion said in his post a lot of tall gray bars.

Unfortunately, using this to try to determine the win rates of types isn't particularly accurate or useful, though as we've experienced in the past it's hard to explain why (it took about a page of arguments to convince scp this was the case). The big problem is that the statistic you're actually trying to find is how good one particular type is. However, if we assume that a large number of the people on the ladder use only one type for long periods of time, which I think is a reasonably safe assumption, the overall win-rates will reduce down to 50%. This is due to how ladder mechanics work: you're paired up with someone of a very similar level of ability to you, and if you lose then you're given easier games due to your rating falling which leads to you getting more wins to even it out. In fact, Antar has stated that if the ladder mechanics were perfect and every player played enough games, everyone would have a win/loss of 50%.
Of course, the ladder isn't perfect and not all players have played an infinite number of games, but if you do this for all types you'll end up with a result far closer to 50% than would be expected when some types are clearly far better than others in the current metagame.

Also, if you want to find the chances of you winning if you use the type, those stats will only be accurate if you use a fairly generic team. If you test it using a ground team that doesn't use excadrill or lando-i then the majority of the games the stats came from will be irrelevant to your particular case.

Overall the most accurate thing out there is probably the average GXE per type, but I don't know if there's been any stats on this since about half a year ago.