October 2009 Shoddy Stats Discussion

[bojangles]

Smogon Uber Ladder Details - Oct. 2009
Smogon Uber Ladder Teammates - Oct. 2009

Hello, as you most likely know, DougJustDoug faithfully provides us with stats for all of the metagames each month. In this thread, I would like to take a closer look at the Ubers statistics. Here they are. However, first, I’d like to say a huge “thank you Doug!”, because he’s been doing such an amazing job. These lists are truncated; if you want the full lists, please visit the sticky in Stark Mountain.

Note: I will most likely be doing these threads every few months, or if there is a particularly interesting thing being shown (unless these become very popular).

Overall Stats

October 2009 Uber Usage
Battles: 12806
---------------------------------------
| Rank | Pokémon    | Uses   | Percent |
[B]|    1 | Kyogre     |  11990 |   46.81 | [/B]
[B]|    2 | Groudon    |  10410 |   40.65 | [/B]
[B]|    3 | Palkia     |   9598 |   37.47 |[/B]
[B]|    4 | Mewtwo     |   8267 |   32.28 |[/B]
[B]|    5 | Darkrai    |   7480 |   29.21 |[/B]
[B]|    6 | Dialga     |   7433 |   29.02 |[/B]
[B]|    7 | Rayquaza   |   7382 |   28.82 |[/B]
[B]|    8 | Scizor     |   6644 |   25.94 | [/B]
[B]|    9 | Forretress |   6373 |   24.88 |[/B]
[B]|   10 | Wobbuffet  |   6199 |   24.20 |    [/B]
[B]|   11 | Deoxys-e   |   5251 |   20.50 |   [/B]
[B]|   12 | Giratina-o |   4414 |   17.23 |   [/B]
[B]|   13 | Ho-oh      |   4226 |   16.50 |   [/B]
[B]|   14 | Blissey    |   4187 |   16.35 |   [/B]
[B]|   15 | Latios     |   4132 |   16.13 |   [/B]
[B]|   16 | Garchomp   |   3412 |   13.32 |    [/B]
[B]|   17 | Latias     |   3106 |   12.13 |    [/B]
[B]|   18 | Deoxys-f   |   2964 |   11.57 |     [/B]
[B]|   19 | Lugia      |   2867 |   11.19 |     [/B]
[B]|   20 | Shaymin-s  |   2746 |   10.72 |     [/B]
[B]|   21 | Mew        |   2291 |    8.95 |     [/B]
[B]|   22 | Giratina   |   2247 |    8.77 |   [/B]
[B]|   23 | Tyranitar  |   1574 |    6.15 |    [/B]
[B]|   24 | Lucario    |   1462 |    5.71 |     [/B]
[B]|   25 | Jirachi    |   1409 |    5.50 |     [/B]
[B]|   26 | Kingdra    |    927 |    3.62 |     [/B]
[B]|   27 | Metagross  |    902 |    3.52 |[/B]    
|   28 | Shedinja   |    861 |    3.36 |     
|   29 | Ninjask    |    700 |    2.73 |     
|   30 | Weavile    |    670 |    2.62 |     
|   31 | Salamence  |    631 |    2.46 |     
|   32 | Manaphy    |    614 |    2.40 |

Bold denotes the “OU of Ubers”.

Lead Stats

October 2009 Uber Lead Usage
----------------------------------------
|    1 | Deoxys-e   |   4989 |   19.48 |     
|    2 | Groudon    |   3286 |   12.83 |    
|    3 | Darkrai    |   1900 |    7.42 |     
|    4 | Deoxys-f   |   1783 |    6.96 |     
|    5 | Kyogre     |   1641 |    6.41 |    
|    6 | Dialga     |   1362 |    5.32 |     
|    7 | Mew        |   1062 |    4.15 |     
|    8 | Shaymin-s  |    935 |    3.65 |     
|    9 | Mewtwo     |    867 |    3.39 |     
|   10 | Forretress |    837 |    3.27 |

Discussion

First I’d like to take a look at a few surprising or interesting things from the overall stats list.

First of all, we can see that Kyogre still has its number 1 spot clenched between its teeth (baleens?). However, Groudon has been making a huge comeback

|    2 | Groudon    |  10410 |   40.65 |

Groudon is only about 2.2 percent, or 1500 usages behind Kyogre. This could be, in large part, explained by the rise of Ho-oh, but I’ll get to that later. However, there is a clear increase in Groudon usage (up from #3, with 35.87%). Rock Polish, Paradancer, and Support Groudons have become increasingly popular. Could this mean the rise of stall? Many stall teams use the sun either because it aids their strategy (with Flamethrower or things like Jumpluff), or simple because it’s better than the rain (with the rain comes Pokémon like Kyogre, Palkia, and Kingdra, all of whom are disastrous for stall teams). This could possibly be the start of the fall of offense dominance in the Ubers tier (not that they’ll [stall vs offense usage] be completely equal, but most definitely getting more so).

Another thing that I’d like to point out is our friend from OU, Scizor.

|    8 | Scizor     |   6644 |   25.94 |

Scizor has risen to huge popularity in the Ubers tier, probably in large part due to its great typing and stats, as well as Bullet Punch, which hurts a lot of Pokémon in Ubers, even after they have set up. Scizor is ranking even above “obviously Uber” Pokémon, like Wobbuffet, Deoxys-F, Giratina (Origin and Another), Lugia, Shaymin-S, and Mew. It is also ranked above all of the suspects (even the dreaded Garchomp!). How might this impact people’s views on it? It’s certainly a centralizing force in OU, and now in Ubers. This just shows how much a Pokémon can change when it gains simply one move (Scizor did gain Superpower in Platinum as well, but Bullet Punch is what really did it). Note, however, that its ability in Ubers does not make it Uber, nor does it make a suspect.

Ok, the really important piece of these stats, at least IMO (I know Jibaku agrees!), is this sucker

 |   13 | Ho-oh      |   4226 |   16.50 |

Ho-oh has taken a huge leap in usage. Back in September, it was number 22 with a mere 2171 uses, and in August it was only #24 with 1420 uses. Well, what could have possibly caused such a launch in this phoenix. Well, like Scizor, Ho-oh got its popularity through one move: Brave Bird. Now, Brave Bird has been a revolutionary addition, but I’m going to refrain from discussing it here, and instead I’m going to point you to Jibaku’s Ho-oh discussion. Ho-oh’s popularity has caused a huge amount of changes in the metagame, which can be observed in this month’s stats. First and foremost is the above Groudon stat. This has increased because Ho-oh truly needs the sun for its Attack boost. Another Pokémon who has increased usage because of this is Forretress

 |    9 | Forretress |   6373 |   24.88 |

Forretress is sitting at the #9 position, again above many “obviously Uber” Pokémon, like its offensive counterpart, Scizor. This can be also explained by Ho-oh as well. Forretress is absolutely mandatory with Ho-oh because it removes the Stealth Rocks, which plague Ho-oh so much. This also proves that a Pokémon can rise above even a 4x times Stealth Rock weakness and do some serious damage in a tier. It also means that Ho-oh is not going to get suspect tested any time soon.

Other notable things:

 |   21 | Mew        |   2291 |    8.95 |

Mew has taken another hit and has fallen another 2 places to number #21. People will be sorely underestimating this little fairy, who is truly a threat. This could be used to your advantage; a well-made Baton Pass team could rip through the metagame as of now!

 |   32 | Manaphy    |    614 |    2.40 |

Manaphy, who is being suspect tested now, is really an outcast among Ubers. It’s all the way down at #32, out of the OU of Ubers. It’s even being beaten by “gimmick Pokémon”, like Ninjask.

Finally we have the lead stats. Groudon and Deoxys-E are by far the most dominate leads now, with Deoxys-E having a comfortable lead even over Groudon. This shows how much the metagame has centralized itself around the use of entry hazards. Back even 6 or so months ago, Darkrai was the most common lead, because it could use Dark Void or do a fair chunk of damage right off the bat. This is one of the greatest examples of the evolution of the metagame.

Ok, I’m finally done! Please use this for a springboard into discussing the trends and developments in the metagame that are demonstrated by this past October’s stats. How has the metagame evolved? Where will it go from here? How will certain Pokémon effect playing styles and which Pokémon will become threats to prepare for? Will offense still remain the dominant form of play, or could stall creep up on it? These are just a few of the ideas for discussion here. Thanks, and happy discussing!

 

[IcyMan28]

While stall certainly seems to be getting a boost in the Uber tier, I wouldn't say that its going to be catching up too quickly. The fact that other key stall members such as Latias and Giratina sit at 15 and 22, respectively, behind offensive behemoths such as Palkia and Darkrai indicates that they have a long way to go. Yes, Groudon and Forretress are often key members of stall teams, but in this case, it seems that they are rising simply out of the need for Ho-Oh support.

 

[Uchiha]

Giratina and Latias usage didn`t increase that much because of people using modern stall nowadays.

 

[zzzzzzzzzzz]

I am really happy that groudon is #2 and I hope that it gets #1 sometime in the future(asap before arceus gets unbanned)

I think that stall is more common because Ho-oh is both sturdy and hits hard. Meaning that you can't simply kill it in one hit just like you can do that to Forry. In the sun it is hard to cover Ho-oh because of no ghost/dark/ice weaknesses.Unless you use rock attacks which seem to be on 50% of Groudons.

 

[SevveN]

what are peoples opinions on skymin? i'm fairly new to ubers but i've been using skymin and a lot of people seem unprepared for the subseed set.

 

[Chii]

Skymin is very good in ubers, but you need alot of prediction against stall, because Giratina and Blissey can switch-stall it, so you need a well placed leech seed, seed flare and probably some hax to get rid of at least giratina.

 

[tripe]

what are peoples opinions on skymin? i'm fairly new to ubers but i've been using skymin and a lot of people seem unprepared for the subseed set.

That statement is true, but I'd prefer the scarf shaymin-s antilead, because it has a rather large percentage chance of preventing entry hazards from going down.

 

[lordkira]

Skymin is very good in ubers, but you need alot of prediction against stall, because Giratina and Blissey can switch-stall it, so you need a well placed leech seed, seed flare and probably some hax to get rid of at least giratina.

Skymin would do quite well in an offensive environment, just like Garchomp. However, in the meta where stall is becoming more popular...Skymin's frailty i nothing to be overlooked at the moment. Leech seed could work but I'm not sure if it's enough, hmmm...sad to see garchomp's usage go down.

 

[Jibaku]

| Giratina-o | Move | HP-Fire | 22.4 |

Interesting...

My theory is that with the rise of Ho-oh in usage, the rise of Forretress increases as well. With the increase in Forry, as well as people becoming more tricky and predicting Gira-O switch ins with Payback, those who want to keep rocks on the field wanted Forretress gone instantly instead of setting up and sacrificing itself on the bagworm. Because Giratina-O can spinblock more reliably that it previously did (well you know what I mean), Ho-oh's usage might fall again :(

 

[mtr]

Or there's a confounding variable at work here: the publicity factor and the fact that Ho-oh got Brave Bird in HGSS driving many people to try it out. This publicity factor affecting the metagame is not unheard of: look at Smeargle, who skyrocketed in popularity as a lead following Kevin Garrett's/August's RMT, and later plummeted back down to its usual spot.

Ho-oh has received quite a bit of publicity recently, mainly due to your efforts. But since popularity is ephemeral, it also has a good chance of falling.

EDIT: And poor Deoxys-D isn't even on the list. What a shame.