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Data Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — February 2014

Discussion in 'Competitive Discussion' started by Antar, Mar 3, 2014.

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  1. Professional2341

    Professional2341

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    This might seem like a dumb question but ....

    in the UU standard, it shows that Jolteon is higher than Mega Blastiose, but in the one above, UU shows that the #1 is Blastiose. Am I missing something?
  2. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    Professional2341, we record usage for OU battles separately than we do UU battles.
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  3. newtonja

    newtonja

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    Just a question on metagame analysis, is it really neccesary to put weatherless as a play type? i mean now that the majority of people play weatherless wouldn't it be better to take out the catagory weatherless.
  4. Agent Gibbs

    Agent Gibbs

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    I apologize if its already there and I just missed it, but if not, would it be possible to get the moveset stats for the 1760 stats (at least for standard XY tiers)? I think it'd be interesting to see how the moveset choices of the top players compares to that of players in general.
  5. MicfiJasan

    MicfiJasan

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    So I am an idiot. The json file with checks/counters data I'm using includes a number that roughly translates to "number of matchups" for each encounter. So I can in fact weight the opponents success rate by how often the Pokemon face off, which should roughly correlate with usage.

    OU (open)
    Manaphy: 36.3336989138199
    Pinsir: 36.8474989130286
    Mawile: 38.2849441142385
    Charizard: 39.4896187161858
    Medicham: 39.7608601633473
    Talonflame: 40.8688101890273
    Volcarona: 40.9895222447822
    Dragonite: 40.9941869735893
    Heracross: 41.0927171097713
    Kyurem-B: 41.2371636766526
    Venusaur: 41.9446540447124
    Azumarill: 42.1858471541338
    Reuniclus: 42.2962369352467
    Clefable: 42.5094238625005
    Lucario: 42.5678917253235
    Keldeo: 42.5782962838713
    Kingdra: 42.6564342208516
    Aegislash: 43.0230944174613
    Breloom: 43.1459739376797
    Crawdaunt: 43.2136397486015
    Conkeldurr: 43.2346977106292
    Bisharp: 43.265160482795
    Garchomp: 43.3142672358962
    Alakazam: 43.9607168609055
    Cloyster: 44.1365350017699
    Landorus: 44.617548481352
    Salamence: 44.6767185178824
    Greninja: 44.698614886321
    Haxorus: 45.0579549821918
    Porygon2: 45.2500803345331
    Gengar: 45.491302373188
    Latios: 45.7261030473652
    Weavile: 45.7685117618645
    Blastoise: 46.2132100483305
    Ditto: 46.5396032919429
    Thundurus: 46.563828668914
    Arcanine: 46.7034681795925
    Terrakion: 46.7300465256662
    Togekiss: 46.8807421474165
    Manectric: 46.9396904823408
    Nidoking: 46.9506126316489
    Staraptor: 47.2265292812864
    Scizor: 47.284236345529
    Umbreon: 47.3048666298856
    Hydreigon: 47.3489852444054
    Goodra: 47.4148132131472
    Diggersby: 47.431788584296
    Darmanitan: 47.4759992880197
    Genesect: 47.5898140734363
    Zapdos: 47.6788620989113
    Thundurus-T: 47.8706169768917
    Gastrodon: 48.0295285227587
    Sylveon: 48.0329105878482
    Absol: 48.2473494169931
    Whimsicott: 48.3136254018349
    Vaporeon: 48.5198042333703
    Chansey: 48.7365649805661
    Gliscor: 48.8011572311225
    Infernape: 48.8845630634664
    Gyarados: 48.8845630634664
    Chandelure: 49.0046252566914
    Starmie: 49.0133494043601
    Metagross: 49.0610742377897
    Sableye: 49.2627636202684
    Mamoswine: 49.6309258531667
    Noivern: 49.6502514956055
    Slowbro: 49.7750063018682
    Heatran: 49.8283743116582
    Blissey: 49.9769914552827
    Tyranitar: 50.1229727128602
    Latias: 50.1274128863602
    Excadrill: 50.2246279218631
    Florges: 50.4433278567273
    Celebi: 50.5706835955558
    Trevenant: 50.7821408110111
    Mandibuzz: 50.8462560401392
    Jolteon: 50.9093045645253
    Aggron: 50.929787304714
    Swampert: 50.9955888237175
    Jellicent: 51.2530540677408
    Ferrothorn: 51.5861816065992
    Jirachi: 52.0670693309206
    Espeon: 52.3492825305464
    Klefki: 52.6662944645956
    Rotom-W: 52.8392009762953
    Crobat: 52.9862681268835
    Tentacruel: 53.3122653074004
    Magnezone: 53.6513069442238
    Landorus-T: 54.4471862426918
    Skarmory: 54.6477141495406
    Donphan: 55.2806792755072
    Politoed: 55.7128147105084
    Hippowdon: 55.9033661341496
    Deoxys-S: 56.0219823156817
    Galvantula: 60.8520760978658
    Deoxys-D: 60.9428503484955
    Scolipede: 62.2632791459224
    Smeargle: 62.8692486579175
    Forretress: 65.1660646793016
    Gardevoir: 65.1660646793016


    I've also included UU this month as well, cuz why not?

    UU (open)

    Suicune: 35.7152868069302
    Zygarde: 37.3817007528978
    Hawlucha: 38.6134620560713
    Honchkrow: 38.628093881132
    Malamar: 38.7854937556228
    Sharpedo: 39.2500597685871
    Reuniclus: 39.4749609287061
    Medicham: 39.5429409315506
    Shaymin: 39.9606874852353
    Haxorus: 39.9619962778271
    Keldeo: 40.9099084707307
    Banette: 41.1406566946681
    Crawdaunt: 41.144398207704
    Cresselia: 41.1467852407319
    Gardevoir: 41.1519847301612
    Scrafty: 41.5014903584078
    Clawitzer: 41.5014903584078
    Kingdra: 41.7849109602793
    Houndoom: 41.8216157937311
    Yanmega: 42.2320862573628
    Kyurem: 42.6474891730862
    Heracross: 43.0388557523164
    Toxicroak: 43.134941842491
    Snorlax: 43.1653882066183
    Hydreigon: 43.3187438641935
    Entei: 43.3233305848379
    Diggersby: 43.3437459868678
    Weavile: 43.3706269376419
    Porygon-Z: 43.4213118235688
    Raikou: 43.5346189714263
    Gallade: 43.7257824393028
    Milotic: 43.7663120688269
    Machamp: 44.0083077219097
    Sceptile: 44.0352254675432
    Porygon2: 44.1061249445528
    Whimsicott: 44.1815528339595
    Blastoise: 44.5182628851108
    Doublade: 44.7318560280652
    Chesnaught: 44.7360248907129
    Absol: 45.1136231060015
    Terrakion: 45.1200022207923
    Celebi: 45.3091794451213
    Victini: 45.3298927394863
    Darmanitan: 45.5266324433403
    Arcanine: 45.599150395425
    Latias: 45.6369692233642
    Amoonguss: 45.718806047565
    Nidoking: 45.8071854390933
    Ampharos: 45.83873881445
    Gourgeist-S: 45.860244101765
    Umbreon: 45.9998705682104
    Roserade: 46.0764736328851
    Metagross: 46.5132548948461
    Exploud: 46.8304619895151
    Vaporeon: 46.8735112023788
    Quagsire: 46.8906013728353
    Chandelure: 46.9612318704617
    Florges: 46.9759959287086
    Krookodile: 46.9883076549073
    Zapdos: 47.0796400281408
    Manectric: 47.4633449671383
    Noivern: 47.4693815538109
    Gastrodon: 47.6254526815549
    Escavalier: 47.7802307630242
    Electivire: 47.7882489247573
    Aerodactyl: 47.8485641824038
    Slowbro: 47.8761399613195
    Chansey: 47.953900742406
    Cinccino: 47.9670635185255
    Ditto: 48.0679030123026
    Mew: 48.5977588061211
    Dusclops: 48.6847592470353
    Cobalion: 48.797423443267
    Jellicent: 49.0643055738221
    Tangrowth: 49.2428803274814
    Mienshao: 49.3681484106945
    Jolteon: 49.3735367649525
    Azelf: 49.4141930290943
    Aggron: 49.5034558095887
    Ampipom: 49.5247149745756
    Crobat: 49.5968398832006
    Magnezone: 49.6757042698733
    Drapion: 49.6923720618385
    Jirachi: 49.9859357539826
    Scyther: 50.2705487359935
    Cofagrigus: 50.5605176181921
    Flygon: 50.8837833548696
    Heliolisk: 50.8838443500271
    Rotom-Heat: 51.3683693558228
    Swampert: 51.4611996461938
    Nidoqueen: 51.5101765151716
    Tornadus-T: 52.2166929832469
    Rhyperior: 52.2487106691463
    Hitmontop: 52.468833654885
    Empoleon: 52.7900129941748
    Hippowdon: 54.0440676599499
    Gligar: 55.7362977804479
    Xatu: 57.9001421879906
    Shuckle: 59.0651884808079
    Leavanny: 59.9902546465456


    Some things I noticed:
    • Numbers are much more centralized from the first draft, where Noctowl counted just as much as Tyranitar. They just seem better overall.
    • Maybe not the best place for this, but both lists suggest there are threats that the ladder seems to have a harder time dealing with (Medicham in OU, Honchkrow/Malamar in UU), but aren't viewed as highly by the community (B+ or lower Viability Rankings), so I'm wondering where that discrepancy comes from.
    • You might see several threats that recently received the ban-hammer on these lists (especially in UU), yet success rates against them, while good, aren't in the top tier. While the Megas like Lucario make sense due to their less effective base forms being used, others like Diggersby and Weavile in UU, don't have as obvious reasons. I wonder if the answer is as simple as the ladder not using them as efficiently as they could, or if there is any effect of being banned that drops the overall score.
    Oh, and Antar, the "Encounter Matrix" could certainly be helpful. Just from looking at source code, it doesn't look too hard to change it so I can find the Pokemon's average success rate, rather than their opponent's which would be much easier to take in from an outside standpoint. I could also potentially incorporate the CRE type score instead of the raw data as well, since it doesn't look like the bias would be too different among top threats.
    Ash Borer, TRC and Antar like this.
  6. migetno1

    migetno1 bRMT Developer
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  7. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    I think so, yes. Because you can't compute it by just subtracting off the number of weather teams, since there are dual-weather teams. And how much does it really hurt anything to list it?

    Moveset statistics are extremely costly to compute, so in order to gets the stats up in a timely fashion, I only ever do one. Also, IIRC, once upon a time I generated "1850" moveset stats, and they were basically identical. This was a while ago, though, so maybe things have changed.

    In short: no, won't do it for this month.
  8. Magnemite

    Magnemite arceus with wings
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    Is there any way to get a list of Pokemon ordered by weight? As far as I know the only way to see a specific Pokemon's weight is to use !usage commands on IRC, which only work for individual Pokemon. Unless I'm missing something, if you wanted to find, say, the Pokemon with the highest weight in UU, you would have to go on IRC and do !usage for every single UU legal Pokemon, which would be very inconvenient.

    Also, what do you think about including a "table of contents" of sorts in hide tags in the OP of stats threads that would have a link to the post for each category of stats (i.e. Mega Usage, Moveset Statistics, 1760 stats, etc)? As more and more categories are added, it gets more and more cumbersome to scroll down to some of the lower categories, particularly on mobile devices that do not have a scroll bar. This isn't really a big deal, but it would make viewing the stats a bit more convenient, especially on mobile devices.
  9. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    Magnemite, I like the ToC idea! Next time I have a free minute, I'll add it to this thread's OP.

    As for the average weight stuff, back when I first introduced weighted stats, people made a lot of fuss about average weight, and what was eventually determined is that it's kind of a worthless metric--just because a Pokemon is used a lot by lesser skilled players (who far outnumber what most people would consider "skilled" players) doesn't mean it's bad.
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  10. Ash Borer

    Ash Borer Throttle Chopper

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    hi

    http://pokemon.basically.gg/weightstats.html
  11. mac1275

    mac1275

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    I may be misremembering, but it looks like there is a much bigger jump from normal stats to 1760 than there was on the old ladder from normal to 1850. I really like seeing this contrast. Anyway, it looks like charizard is moving up to fill lucarios shoes.
  12. TM13IceBeam

    TM13IceBeam

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    actually if im not mistaken 1850 isn't really very difficult to get on the old ladder. 1760 here is somewhat harder and you're really only getting it once you've played a bunch of games in the meta
  13. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    mac1275 and TM13IceBeam, 1850 was one standard deviation under the old system, 1760 is two under the new one. But in theory, your rating should converge to the same value no matter which system (it doesn't, but only because people most people on the ladder swap alts on a regular basis--keep in mind there's absolutely zero advantage to doing so these days). PS' implementation of Glicko2 was also demonstrably broken, so that screwed things up too. I'd suspect that for most ladders, 1850 was harder to get to than 1630 is now but easier to get to than 1760 is now. I decided to go for 1760 because it truly is "1337" (most people agree with me that 1630 wasn't "1337" enough.

    One thing to quickly note, just so it's clear to everyone: 1850/1760/1630 all refer to your Glicko rating, not your Elo. Glicko is somewhat hidden--it only appears on the ladder and when you hit the /rating command--not when you battke.
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  14. Mario With Lasers

    Mario With Lasers Self-proclaimed DEAD king
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    Just to be sure, the 1760 stats are weighted as the old 1850 ones and not stats based only on people above that rating, right?
  15. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    Correct. It's using the same weighting formula that's used for the standard stats, just with the "cutoff" upped from 1500 to 1850.
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  16. TooMuchSugar

    TooMuchSugar

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    I understand if it's too hard to do, but I suspect that 1760 Moveset stats really would be significantly different, given that the standard moveset stats have stuff like only 10% of Rotom-W being Physically Defensive and more Aegislash carrying Swords Dance than Shadow Ball.
    EDIT: and Moonblast on 30% of Sylveon lol
  17. Creative

    Creative

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    I made the same comment either last month or the one before, citing Rotom-W's most common EV spread being Specially Defensive as my big example, and assuming that it exists since the Showdown-suggested spread for a Leftovers Rotom-W with Hydro/Volt/WillO/P-Split is 252HP/4SpA/252SpD+ (the very spread seen at #1), which 1337 1760s flat-out wouldn't use (unless they really hated Greninja?).
    Edit: also, Assault Vest more common than Lefties on Tyranitar.
    The purpose of us asking is that 1760 movesets would eliminate these...anomalies, and they would also give players who are trying to get better rather than stay average an even better tool with which to do so.
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2014
  18. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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  19. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    All right, TooMuchSugar, Creative and Adam Lambert, you asked for it:

    http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-02/moveset/ou-1760.0.txt

    Note that specially defensive Rotom is still the most popular set and Assault Vest T-tar is only two percentage points below Leftovers T-Tar. I can't do miracles, here.

    Edit: Okay, the issue with Rotom is that you just need to sum over the Bolds, since there are a few variations, and you end up with about 50% more physically defensive than specially defensive.
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2014
  20. TooMuchSugar

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    Thanks for these! One of the biggest changes I'm seeing is much more consistent Teammates stats - standard moveset data generally has +4% max, but the 1760 data has really interesting stuff like +11% Venusaur for Heatran and +13% Rotom-W for Landorus-T. Apparently better players like cores more.
  21. Creative

    Creative

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    For some reason, I'm not able to view the link, either with my computer on my Wi-Fi or on my phone via mobile. Anyone else experiencing a similar problem?
  22. Antar

    Antar Self-anointed Czar of LC UU
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    Creative, your connection must have port 8080 blocked. That sucks, but if you have a smart phone, you can probably pull it up on that...
  23. Vryheid

    Vryheid fudge jelly

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    1. Are you interested in (or have you attempted) fine-tuning your metrics used to determine the metagame analysis in non-standard tiers such as CAP or averagemons?

    2. Is there an online list of what these metrics are, so we can see exactly how certain moves or abilities influence stall vs offense in one direction or the other?
  24. RyanKoopa

    RyanKoopa

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    What is the ranking cutoff for people being able to influence the tier list? And which ranking system do you use?
  25. Kappaten

    Kappaten

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    Nobody is excluded from contributing to the usage stats, but the stats are weighted with the average player assumed to have a Glicko rating of 1760 (and thus a weight of .5).
    Shiruba and Antar like this.
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