If I were to reconsider Skymin, I would run timid/leech seed/substitute/earth power/air slash @leftovers.
There's a 38% chance of that scenario happening, and Skymin can't really switch in and out that easily, with a weakness to SRSeed Flare, Air Slash x2 kills Blissey if it switches in on seed flare and gets a sdef drop. You need ONE flinch to kill it, that's it. Not great odds, but you can always switch out of Blissey without a lot of difficulty, after you dented it and gave it -2 sdef.
Seed Flare, Air Slash x2 kills Blissey if it switches in on seed flare and gets a sdef drop. You need ONE flinch to kill it, that's it. Not great odds, but you can always switch out of Blissey without a lot of difficulty, after you dented it and gave it -2 sdef.
Blissey dies after the second Air Slash, so you don't need to consider the 60% flinch there (unless I misunderstood), besides, 100 - 22 = 78Ok, and you're also completely screwed if during 1 of those 3 attacks, Blissey just so happens to Ice Beam you, or Thunder Wave you.
You're also depending on the following odds:
68% -2 Special Defense drop from Seed Flare
57% Air Slash Flinch
57% Air Slash Flinch #2
When you multiply these odds together, you get 22%.
In other words, there is a mere 22% chance of your scenario happening at all, meaning that 88% of the time, Blissey will be able to stop Shaymin cold.
Also, how do you only need 1 flinch? If you don't get 2 consecutive flinches after the Special Defense drop, you will either get Ice Beamed or Thunder Waved during that turn, and will therefore lose your Skymin or have it be useless.
Blissey dies after the second Air Slash, so you don't need to consider the 60% flinch there (unless I misunderstood), besides, 100 - 22 = 78
Even though, by that means, 68% chance of an 180 Power Move that has the same effect as a pseudo-Nasty Plot while dealing immense damage is still insane, not even counting in the Flinches from STAB Air Slash.
I recognize the fact that it is still an incredibly powerful move, and that flinchax is also a little ridiculous with a 57% chance to flinch (counting 95% accuracy :P ). But people have to realize that the -2 sp. def raise is NOT always happening...granted it happens a lot, but it's hard to make calculations based on something that has less chance of happening than D/P hypnosis...and I don't know about you, but I found it hard to depend on hypnosis at times. :/
Actually, .85 (accuracy of Seed Flare) * .80 (chance of -2 SPD) is 68% I believe. That's 8% more than the accuracy of Hypnosis, since Hypnosis' accuracy is only 60% in Platinum, if I'm not wrong.
68% is 17/25 attacks, roughly. So for every 25 Seed Flares that are used, 17 will hit-and-lower-special-defense. That's not a bad number.