I was thinking the exact same thing. Seed Flare really is over hyped and if anything is holding back Skymin's potential. Grass already has shitty coverage and the omnipresent Heatran causes problems for Submin that lack Earth Power (which surprisingly is a lot due to everyone using Seed Flare). Seed Flare finds use in hitting bulky grounds/waters for SE damage. Though a lot of those things don't have business switching into Submin as they usually have high HP meaning Submin can easily stall with Leech Seed/Sub/Air Slash.If I were to reconsider Skymin, I would run timid/leech seed/substitute/earth power/air slash @leftovers.
There's a 38% chance of that scenario happening, and Skymin can't really switch in and out that easily, with a weakness to SRSeed Flare, Air Slash x2 kills Blissey if it switches in on seed flare and gets a sdef drop. You need ONE flinch to kill it, that's it. Not great odds, but you can always switch out of Blissey without a lot of difficulty, after you dented it and gave it -2 sdef.
Ok, and you're also completely screwed if during 1 of those 3 attacks, Blissey just so happens to Ice Beam you, or Thunder Wave you.Seed Flare, Air Slash x2 kills Blissey if it switches in on seed flare and gets a sdef drop. You need ONE flinch to kill it, that's it. Not great odds, but you can always switch out of Blissey without a lot of difficulty, after you dented it and gave it -2 sdef.
Blissey dies after the second Air Slash, so you don't need to consider the 60% flinch there (unless I misunderstood), besides, 100 - 22 = 78Ok, and you're also completely screwed if during 1 of those 3 attacks, Blissey just so happens to Ice Beam you, or Thunder Wave you.
You're also depending on the following odds:
68% -2 Special Defense drop from Seed Flare
57% Air Slash Flinch
57% Air Slash Flinch #2
When you multiply these odds together, you get 22%.
In other words, there is a mere 22% chance of your scenario happening at all, meaning that 88% of the time, Blissey will be able to stop Shaymin cold.
Also, how do you only need 1 flinch? If you don't get 2 consecutive flinches after the Special Defense drop, you will either get Ice Beamed or Thunder Waved during that turn, and will therefore lose your Skymin or have it be useless.
The Blissey that carry 80 HP/252 Def/176 SDef with a Calm nature (the standard has HP and SpA switched sometimes) are hardly even touched by Seed Flare when they switch into it though. It does 22.35% - 26.38% if Skymin has a Life Orb, and 252 SpA EVs. Even with the -2 SDef drop, Air Slash is NOT going to be killing it in 2 hits after that. It only does 27.87% - 32.79% after a drop even with Life Orb and such. This is not even going to come close to killing it in 2 hits especially when considering Leftovers recovery. Without Life Orb, it's even harder to manage this. After a drop, Air Slash only does a pitiful 21.46% - 25.19%.Blissey dies after the second Air Slash, so you don't need to consider the 60% flinch there (unless I misunderstood), besides, 100 - 22 = 78
I recognize the fact that it is still an incredibly powerful move, and that flinchax is also a little ridiculous with a 57% chance to flinch (counting 95% accuracy :P ). But people have to realize that the -2 sp. def raise is NOT always happening...granted it happens a lot, but it's hard to make calculations based on something that has less chance of happening than D/P hypnosis...and I don't know about you, but I found it hard to depend on hypnosis at times. :/Even though, by that means, 68% chance of an 180 Power Move that has the same effect as a pseudo-Nasty Plot while dealing immense damage is still insane, not even counting in the Flinches from STAB Air Slash.
Actually, .85 (accuracy of Seed Flare) * .80 (chance of -2 SPD) is 68% I believe. That's 8% more than the accuracy of Hypnosis, since Hypnosis' accuracy is only 60% in Platinum, if I'm not wrong.I recognize the fact that it is still an incredibly powerful move, and that flinchax is also a little ridiculous with a 57% chance to flinch (counting 95% accuracy :P ). But people have to realize that the -2 sp. def raise is NOT always happening...granted it happens a lot, but it's hard to make calculations based on something that has less chance of happening than D/P hypnosis...and I don't know about you, but I found it hard to depend on hypnosis at times. :/
I said D/P Hypnosis...which =70% >_>Actually, .85 (accuracy of Seed Flare) * .80 (chance of -2 SPD) is 68% I believe. That's 8% more than the accuracy of Hypnosis, since Hypnosis' accuracy is only 60% in Platinum, if I'm not wrong.
68% is 17/25 attacks, roughly. So for every 25 Seed Flares that are used, 17 will hit-and-lower-special-defense. That's not a bad number.