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Smogon Shoddy Server Statistics - September 2009

Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by DougJustDoug, Oct 6, 2009.

  1. IcyMan28

    IcyMan28

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    Let's run some calcs. I'll use the simple Adamant CB set.

    Megahorn vs. 6 / 0 Jolly Swellow: 574 Atk vs 156 Def & 261 HP (120 Base Power): 237 - 279 (90.80% - 106.90%)

    Swellow can't switch in on even resisted attacks.

    Close Combat vs. 248 / 148 Bold Moltres: 574 Atk vs 288 Def & 383 HP (120 Base Power): 128 - 151 (33.42% - 39.43%)

    Considering that Heracross outspeeds this Moltres, its an easy 2HKO with Stealth Rock.

    Close Combat vs. 208 / 4 Jolly Scyther: 574 Atk vs 197 Def & 333 HP (120 Base Power): 93 - 110 (27.93% - 33.03%)

    Baton Pass Scyther.

    Close Combat vs. 252 / 252 Impish Arcanine w/ Intimidate: 382 Atk vs 284 Def & 384 HP (120 Base Power): 174 - 205 (45.31% - 53.39%)

    Once again, Heracross can outspeed and 2HKO. Less bulky Arcanine will obviously take more damage.

    Megahorn vs. 6 / 0 Timid Houndoom: 574 Atk vs 136 Def & 292 HP (120 Base Power): 543 - 640 (185.96% - 219.18%)

    Not even sure why I did this calc.

    Megahorn vs. 6 / 0 Adamant Blaziken: 574 Atk vs 176 Def & 302 HP (120 Base Power): 105 - 123 (34.77% - 40.73%)

    4x resisted attack is denting Blaziken, hard. There is no speed tie, by the way, as Heracross is 5 points faster.

    Close Combat vs. 6 / 0 Timid Alakazam: 574 Atk vs 126 Def & 252 HP (120 Base Power): 293 - 345 (116.27% - 136.90%)

    Close Combat vs. 252 / 40 Timid Espeon: 574 Atk vs 166 Def & 334 HP (120 Base Power): 222 - 262 (66.47% - 78.44%)

    Dual Screen Espeon.

    Megahorn vs. 252 / 252 Impish Rhyperior: 574 Atk vs 394 Def & 434 HP (120 Base Power): 187 - 222 (43.09% - 51.15%)

    Megahorn is really hurting it, so CC isn't even needed.

    Close Combat vs. 252 / 252 Impish Rhyperior w/Solid Rock: 574 Atk vs 394 Def & 434 HP (120 Base Power): 280 - 333 (64.52% - 76.73%)

    Several of these checks are relying on outspeeding Heracross after a kill...which sounds alot like Garchomp (something that is undeniably suspect, at the least).

    Should Hera run the Adamant Scarf set, it is now outspeeding base all of the above threats (barring a scarf of their own) and doing roughly 2/3s of the damage listed above, which is still quite impressive. Out of the top 50 UUs, only 2 are ghosts (Mismagius and Spiritomb), and neither of them are too keen on switching into CB Megahorn, allowing Heracross to spam Close Combat relatively safely.

    If and when a check comes in, it can simply switch out, then switch in later to repeat the process. Status isn't stopping it anytime soon, either, as it only boosts its attacks.
  2. Octobre

    Octobre

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    Cresselia cannot be UU IMO. It is too powerful for UU. Allow me to demonstrate and example. Look at Deoxys, sure it is outclassed by Deoxys-A and is used once in a blue moon; but it cannot be moved to OU since it is way too powerful there. Same with Cress.

    Heracross may be in UU but will not last long there and will most probably be jumping tho and fro from BL. Heracross wasn't really that bad...it was just outclassed by Luke.
  3. Naxte

    Naxte

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    Eh, who knows? The only way to find out is to actually test it once it falls down. After all, people were screaming about Dugtrio going down at first, but look at how that turned out. Similarly, look at how people were freaking out about Alakazam going down, but it not turning out to be too bad. In other words, appearances can be deceiving, so don't rush to any hasty judgments.
  4. phalanx

    phalanx

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    cress should not touch UU, Registeel is annoying enough already get the 2 of them it will be a very boring match and probably impossible to win :/. heracross in UU? thats a definate no, scarf variant would be doing huge damage
  5. Blue Monk

    Blue Monk

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    Unfortunately, Deoxys's situation isn't comparable to Cresselia's, since the Uber tier isn't necessarily based on usage. If Cresselia falls below a certain usage, it will automatically end up in UU, even if it's clearly too powerful for the tier.
  6. Altaria

    Altaria

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    If Cresselia is UU and is broken, it will be voted BL because it breaks the Defensive Characteristic. But I believe every Pokémon needs proper testing. Maybe it is not that bad.

    Celebi
  7. phalanx

    phalanx

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    well they should do exactly that and test, instead of just throwing things into UU without it.
    we have OU suspecnt why not UU suspect?
  8. charmander6000

    charmander6000

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    We do have UU suspect
  9. Blue Monk

    Blue Monk

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    I should have been clearer: I mean that any Pokemon that enters UU is likely to stay there for a while if it doesn't break into OU based on usage. Suspect testing is a long and complicated process.
  10. Revolution.Z

    Revolution.Z

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    Lol Someone actually used pineco in ubers as a lead.
  11. corncake22

    corncake22

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    In UU registeel's population is going to go down with rypheriors on the loose..
  12. mtr

    mtr

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    This should be an interesting case study in the influence of our strategydex analyses. For Raikou, the rewrite will have the Offensive Life Orb set above the Sub/Calm Mind set. Maybe in the months following, if Raikou still gets any use in OU, things will change. Of course, one might want to analyze another Pokemon that gets more use, but this was all I could think of at the moment.

    What in tarnation...
  13. Erazor

    Erazor ✓ Just Doug It
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    mtr, leftovers are much more useful on Raikou than a LO. Add to that, there is a very real chance of Raikou becoming UU again, so the SubCM set will likely remain on top, hence leftovers will be the most used.
  14. petrie911

    petrie911

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    Unlike many people, I can't wait for Cresselia to drop to UU. Why, you ask? Because we've never had a defensive suspect before, OU or UU. Personally, I question if Smogon might be too strict on offensive suspects and not strict enough on defensive suspects. People bitch far more about something destroying stall than they do about something destroying offense (or hyperoffense). It'd be nice to finally see what it takes to make people agree something is defensively broken.

    Though, tbh, I half-expect the decision to be that Cresselia is OK and UU just becomes more and more stall-oriented.
  15. mtr

    mtr

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    Without the power of a Life Orb, Raikou has to engage in a Calm Mind war with Latias with the winner decided by a crit. With it, Latias is easily 2HKOed by +1 Shadow Ball. Also, a Life Orb lets it OHKO a Tyranitar with +1 LO Hidden Power Fighting. Not to mention that its harder to wall a 3 attack Raikou than a 2 Attack one. The CM LO set is Raikou's best bet at distinguishing itself from Suicune and threatening to sweep. The only advantages generated by the Sub/CM one are that it is more difficult to kill off with Flygon and its scarf buddies who have Earthquake, and that it can beat a non-Stoss Blissey, although that is becoming rarer.
  16. Naxte

    Naxte

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    In the Standard environment, yes. However, if it ends up remaining UU, it will be getting much more usage there than in Standard, and thus the UU environment should be what's focused on in the analysis. If it's once again sent up to BL though, then what you've mentioned will be the relevant info. That is, unless the multiple tabs thing for Uber/OU/UU analyses thing actually went through or something, but I don't really think there was a real resolution on that, at least last time I checked.
  17. mtr

    mtr

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    I think the plan for that was that it would be worked on after Shoddy 2 came out. In the meantime, analyses for other tiers are being tagged on to the bottom of the existing analyses, like for Primeape's Uber set.
  18. Staraptor Call

    Staraptor Call

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    For this month or the next, Doug, could you gather statistics on the average CRE of the users of each Pokemon? It would be interesting to see what Pokemon the best battlers used more, and it would answer the question of whether Electivire, Porygonz, Ninjask, etc. users really are inexperienced.
  19. FerrariCUBU

    FerrariCUBU

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    Cresselia is way too powerful for UU. I think it is very likely that it will drop down to UU. But when it does, Cress will probably be brought up to BL very quickly. Many people forget how great a wall Cress is. I think it's really only because of Scizor that Cress doesn't get much usage in OU. In UU it will completely wall a number of low power threats.
  20. cmurph

    cmurph

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    This would be really interesting, but CRE often doesn't provide a very accurate assessment of a player's ability/experience. That said, it would still probably reveal a general trend
  21. Naxte

    Naxte

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    Eh, we'll see. It all depends what UU is actually like if and when it drops. It's not good to come to any hasty conclusions until then.
  22. ultimifier

    ultimifier

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    back a couple years ago colin used to show weighted statistics, the sum of the players ranking*number of uses. He would then list both of the lists and people would make comparisons to see which pokemon had a higher weighted average (better people used them etc.).

    I remember that for 3 months in a row roserade was the used by the best players and ninjask by the worst

    roserade was +7 in weighted
    and ninjask was -10 in weighted

    this is what i remember, but numbers might be a couple off, but you get the point
  23. pkmn1000

    pkmn1000

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    Although moltres will probably Ohko after the cc.
  24. Haunter

    Haunter 100% avocado
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    It's just theorymon, but considering that UU lacks TTar\Scizor and that sandstorm is pretty rare, I think that a Pokemon like Cresselia would be really hard to take down. Of course it would make sunny day teams more viable than they currently are.

    He meant that Heracross can 2hko defensive Moltres if Moltres switches in on the close combat.

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