Serious The Politics Thread

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yeah, I was going to share too Biden losing all swing states, down an extra 2 pts in each post debate and some blue states up for grabs geez it’s a mess. I hope he has the character to do the right thing, to do what’s needed in order to keep the republic.
 
faint said:
Biden is cooked. Enjoy 4 more years of Trump because one man wouldn't step down for the greater good of the country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808204695548448807
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The polls are bullshit. Especially these “leaked internal” polls. Haven’t we gone over this already?

Sorry but forcing your own incumbent President out is the epitome of insanity. Especially at this stage of the game where ballot access now comes into question. The Biden/Harris ticket got 81 million votes and successfully unseated a monster incumbent. If this ticket is replaced, the Democrats will lose.
 
The polls that the Democratic Analysts order/conduct for their own ability to monitor progress is bullshit?

I’m sorry dude, I’ve worked in Marketing Research— polling can be done in very robust manner, and even if media companies might have an agenda (but usually not— Biden is doing better in Fox’s poll…), campaigns need meaningful data to be at all effective in their objective.


For the polling they’re ordering for their own campaign purposes to be really wrong, the Democrats would have to be reeeeeeaaaaaaaalllly incompetent.
 
Chou Toshio said:
The polls that the Democratic Analysts order/conduct for their own ability to monitor progress is bullshit?

I’m sorry dude, I’ve worked in Marketing Research— polling can be done in very robust manner, and even if media companies might have an agenda (but usually not— Biden is doing better in Fox’s poll…), campaigns need meaningful data to be at all effective in their objective.


For the polling they’re ordering for their own campaign purposes to be really wrong, the Democrats would have to be reeeeeeaaaaaaaalllly incompetent.
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I think it is time to take a step back. What “Democratic analysts” have felon winning New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire, along with Colorado being a toss up?

The Republicans have been eerily silent during this news cycle. You are literally doing the work for them.

A few pages back, I encouraged folks to dive into the crosstabs. And if you truly believe that the felon is winning among Asians, Latinos, Jewish, young voters, and 30% of black voters, I don’t know what else can be said. These are all groups that have voted minimum 60/40 Dem for the last 60 years.
 
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RaikouLover said:
The polls are bullshit. Especially these “leaked internal” polls. Haven’t we gone over this already?

Sorry but forcing your own incumbent President out is the epitome of insanity. Especially at this stage of the game where ballot access now comes into question. The Biden/Harris ticket got 81 million votes and successfully unseated a monster incumbent. If this ticket is replaced, the Democrats will lose.
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This is an internal poll. You're also ignoring that voter turnout was at an all-time high in 2020 because of COVID and the ease of mail-in voting. We will likely never see a turnout that high again until the population makes up for the other factors.
 
RaikouLover said:
I think it is time to take a step back. What “Democratic analysts” have felon winning New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire, along with Colorado being a toss up?

The Republicans have been eerily silent during this news cycle. You are literally doing the work for them.

A few pages back, I encouraged folks to dive into the crosstabs. And if you truly believe that the felon is winning among Asians, Latinos, Jewish, young voters, and 30% of black voters, I don’t know what else can be said. These are all groups that have voted minimum 60/40 Dem for the last 60 years.
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Do the Democrats have any responsibility to society? To the republic? Do they have any responsibility to be accountable to the American people?

To the electorate?
To the voters?
To their own campaign workers?
To the party’s other leaders?
To the donors?
To ANYONE??

It seems like fundamentally no. And it seems they fundamentally lack the moral character, or convictions that are needed of them to preserve something as fragile and precious as democracy.
 
faint said:
This is an internal poll. You're also ignoring that voter turnout was at an all-time high in 2020 because of COVID and the ease of mail-in voting. We will likely never see a turnout that high again until the population makes up for the other factors.
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Post the link to this poll. Let us see the cross tabs.

Chou Toshio said:
Do the Democrats have any responsibility to society? To the republic? Do they have any responsibility to be accountable to the American people?

To the electorate?
To the voters?
To their own campaign workers?
To the party’s other leaders?
To the donors?
To ANYONE??

It seems like fundamentally no. And it seems they fundamentally lack the moral character, or convictions that are needed of them to preserve something as fragile and precious as democracy.
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The Democratic voters chose Biden. It is antidemocratic to force someone else onto the ticket.

The political scientists I’ve seen have all said it is a terrible idea replace Biden for November.
 
Alright well I guess we did everything we could. Unfortunate that Biden is not meeting with Schumer or Jeffries in this dire time. If I was in his shoes I would be trying to align myself and my message with my parties leadership but alas:

1720014551678.png
 
faint said:
Alright well I guess we did everything we could. Unfortunate that Biden is not meeting with Schumer or Jeffries in this dire time. If I was in his shoes I would be trying to align myself and my message with my parties leadership but alas:

View attachment 644954
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(democrat shills when biden has a stroke and is bedridden a few months later): okay he might have a small health issue but at least he's not a LIAR and a FELON :changry: there are TWO choices, who do you support?????
 
More than happy to discuss actual data. This Democratic aligned poll showed that all potential Democratic candidates more or less are “losing” to felon at this current time. Nate Cohn from NYT did admit weeks ago that they are finding significant Republican response bias in polling this cycle. That means Republicans are for more likely to engage with pollsters than Democrats. It has historically been difficult to poll black and Latino communities, so pollsters often have to resort to modeling instead of actual samples.

VP Harris polls the closest to Biden vs. convicted felon Trump. Though the cross tabs are still showing question marks. (I.e. felon Trump getting 23% of the black vote, or only being -5 with women vs. Kamala Harris). I believe we should trust historical voting patterns 100x more than 2024 polls.

gvmgvm40 said:
(democrat shills when biden has a stroke and is bedridden a few months later): okay he might have a small health issue but at least he's not a LIAR and a FELON :changry: there are TWO choices, who do you support?????
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Our most transformational presidents from both parties have had far more severe medical issues than being old with a stutter. FDR, Eisenhower, LBJ, Reagan. Heck, Trump almost died from covid-19 while in office.
 
RaikouLover said:
More than happy to discuss actual data. This Democratic aligned poll showed that all potential Democratic candidates more or less are “losing” to felon at this current time. Nate Cohn from NYT did admit weeks ago that they are finding significant Republican response bias in polling this cycle. That means Republicans are for more likely to engage with pollsters than Democrats. It has historically been difficult to poll black and Latino communities, so pollsters often have to resort to modeling instead of actual samples.

VP Harris polls the closest to Biden vs. convicted felon Trump. Though the cross tabs are still showing question marks. (I.e. felon Trump getting 23% of the black vote, or only being -5 with women vs. Kamala Harris). I believe we should trust historical voting patterns 100x more than 2024 polls.



Our most transformational presidents from both parties have had far more severe medical issues than being old with a stutter. FDR, Eisenhower, LBJ, Reagan. Heck, Trump almost died from covid-19 while in office.
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https://voca.ro/1nNyWwtQIqZO
 
faint said:
https://voca.ro/1nNyWwtQIqZO
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Thanks for the voice note. There’s no need for me to re-litigate why I am “committed” to Biden, as it’s been discussed in the last few pages.

Every poll I have discussed in this thread has been accompanied by a link showing the published results with full cross tabs. The “internal poll” you are referencing on Twitter shows results that do not pass the smell test. That is why I am looking forward to seeing what the demographic cross tabs look like in those results.
 
faint said:
Biden is cooked. Enjoy 4 more years of Trump because one man wouldn't step down for the greater good of the country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808204695548448807
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Frankly they see what they want to see.

For somebody so uninterested since they're in a safe state you're pretty concerned about a mass media psyop.

Oh yeah here's question: why is "leaked internal polling data" on how bad biden is coming from the dnc?
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-senate-polls.html

Here's another from Nate Silver today, the beloved of the pollsters, who has compared 47 senate vs presidential polls in 5 swing states:

1720025272973.png

1720025286029.png


People in swing states broadly prefer democratic candidates to republican candidates, which is good news. But they don't want to vote for Joe Biden, because they don't trust his mental sharpness and health to lead for another 4 years. To deny this is not only delusional, but outright dangerous if you claim to care about preventing a republican takeover.
 
gvmgvm40 said:
People in swing states broadly prefer democratic candidates to republican candidates, which is good news. But they don't want to vote for Joe Biden,
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They'll do it anyway. Most of them can't remember what happened last week anyway. Isn't the senate more important?

A couple rounds of orange man bad juice a week before should do the trick. Idk. This campaign season hasn't felt real at all. I believe in the biden campaign to step up now
 
GatoDelFuego said:
Frankly they see what they want to see.

For somebody so uninterested since they're in a safe state you're pretty concerned about a mass media psyop.

Oh yeah here's question: why is "leaked internal polling data" on how bad biden is coming from the dnc?
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Probably some staff wanting Biden pressured out and not seeing movement.

Right now reporting everywhere that democrats/staffers are panicking like crazy but no one wants to be the one to confront Biden. For months there have been interviews like this— anonymous staff who see Biden’s daily state and are panicked but chicken shit— “No one wants to be the dissenter, the one putting their neck on the line” type cowardice, and that’s in overdrive now.

Probably leaked by staff who want to see Biden bow out but are too scared to confront him and/or too low on the totem poll for their opinion to matter.

It just takes 1 person out of countless staffers.
 
gvmgvm40 said:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-senate-polls.html

Here's another from Nate Silver today, the beloved of the pollsters, who has compared 47 senate vs presidential polls in 5 swing states:

View attachment 645019
View attachment 645020

People in swing states broadly prefer democratic candidates to republican candidates, which is good news. But they don't want to vote for Joe Biden, because they don't trust his mental sharpness and health to lead for another 4 years. To deny this is not only delusional, but outright dangerous if you claim to care about preventing a republican takeover.
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Didn’t Nate Silver forecast a “red wave” with a 51 seat GOP Senate Majority in 2022?

Nate Silver’s polling aggregate included a lot of less reputable polling agencies the last couple cycles. Interestingly, since he broke from 538, his November election model is considerably more bearish on Biden than 538. Fivethirtyeight considers this a toss up election, due to heavier weighting of the historical voting fundamentals vs. polls alone. I still can’t believe these polling aggregators include bullshit like “Patriot Polling” in their models.


GatoDelFuego said:
They'll do it anyway. Most of them can't remember what happened last week anyway. Isn't the senate more important?
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Also the Senate and Presidency is approaching 100% same state party since the 2010s. Aka, the Democrats or Republicans are taking both in each state. No Pres / Senate split decision.
 
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Of the alternatives she’s the only one who has access to the war chest. I think Buttegieg and others are stronger, but so much stronger as to overcome the campaign funding value? Ehhhh…

No idea.
 
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