Serious The Politics Thread

[Ashaebi]

I agree with this entire post. Except I am very bullish on Biden and bearish on the felon. Structurally, this election has the makings of a Biden landslide. It comes down to if people believe the polls or not. I've made my case the last few pages about how shitty and illogical all the fucking cross tabs are. I did however find this priceless nugget that should remind us not to be duped like back in 2016:

How does mainstream polling keep underestimating Trump for the last 8 years is baffling. Perhaps they have learnt their lesson by now and not give people false hope?

 

[RaikouLover]

How does mainstream polling keep underestimating Trump for the last 8 years is baffling. Perhaps they have learnt their lesson by now and not give people false hope?

That's what you got out of that the graphic?

Convicted felon Trump has never received even 47% of the national voteshare. Republicans have consistently lost federal elections ever since his inauguration in 2017. To suggest that the mainstream polling is underestimating him in 2024, despite saying he is "winning" is wild.

Few pages back I sourced a poll showing felon Trump leading the state of New Jersey, with leads among 18-34, Latino voters, Asian voters, and Jewish voters. He's going to get blown out in the state just like the last two cycles (lost by 14 and by 16), despite what the obvious bullshit poll says.

 

[Ashaebi]

That's what you got out of that the graphic?

Convicted felon Trump has never received even 47% of the national voteshare. Republicans have consistently lost federal elections ever since his inauguration in 2017. To suggest that the mainstream polling is underestimating him in 2024, despite saying he is "winning" is wild.

Few pages back I sourced a poll showing felon Trump leading the state of New Jersey, with leads among 18-34, Latino voters, Asian voters, and Jewish voters. He's going to get blown out in the state just like the last two cycles (lost by 14 and by 16), despite what the obvious bullshit poll says.

Your own screenshot showed Hillary was gonna win by 6.5 points aggregate in Wisconson in 2016 The actual outcome was Trump WINNING Wisconsin. In fact literally every single individual poll on that list without a single exception predicts Wisconson will go blue in 2016. So yes mainstream polls have been underestimating Trump.

 

[Laurel]

This thread is very tense. Why not talk about something more light hearted, which celebrity would unironically win the election if pushed at the DNC?

Taylor Swift? The Rock? Keanu Reeves? Mark Cuban?

Who is your celebrity candidate of choice?

I think the 4 people named would all unironically win with Cuban probably having the best chance of running.

 

[RaikouLover]

Your own screenshot showed Hillary was gonna win by 6.5 points aggregate in Wisconson in 2016 The actual outcome was Trump WINNING Wisconsin. In fact literally every single individual poll on that list without a single exception predicts Wisconson will go blue in 2016. So yes mainstream polls have been underestimating Trump.

The point was that polls in general are bullshit. How do you reconcile "polls underestimate Trump" when they currently have him winning in Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Jersey? Do you believe he is "winning" any of these states?

This thread is very tense. Why not talk about something more light hearted, which celebrity would unironically win the election if pushed at the DNC?

Taylor Swift? The Rock? Keanu Reeves? Mark Cuban?

Who is your celebrity candidate of choice?

I think the 4 people named would all unironically win with Cuban probably having the best chance of running.

Interesting. Mark Cuban is the only one of that list that would be taken somewhat seriously by a Democratic primary electorate.

As for a general election in 2024 vs. Trump, all four of those names if running as the Democratic nominee would defeat the felon head to head.

 

[adjectivenoun]

This thread is very tense. Why not talk about something more light hearted, which celebrity would unironically win the election if pushed at the DNC?

Taylor Swift? The Rock? Keanu Reeves? Mark Cuban?

Who is your celebrity candidate of choice?

I think the 4 people named would all unironically win with Cuban probably having the best chance of running.

Remember when Kanye ran? It would be like that.

 

[Sultan]

The point was that polls in general are bullshit. How do you reconcile "polls underestimate Trump" when they currently have him winning in Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Jersey? Do you believe he is "winning" any of these states?

Unironically yes. Trump came very close to winning Minnesota and within a hair of winning New Hampshire in 2016, while Virginia and New Jersey both swung sharply to the right in their 2021 gubernatorial elections. These are all states Biden could easily lose if things continue the way they are.

 

[Ashaebi]

The point was that polls in general are bullshit. How do you reconcile "polls underestimate Trump" when they currently have him winning in Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Jersey? Do you believe he is "winning" any of these states?
As for a general election in 2024 vs. Trump, all four of those names if running as the Democratic nominee would defeat the felon head to head.

By BS I assume you mean they specifically are UNDERESTIMATING Trump and OVERESTIMATING Biden. So if the polls are already bad for Biden now, reality will likely be even worse.

Also, the states you brought up. Are they aggregated or a single result poll and specifically which poll if so?

 

[Chou Toshio]

The liberal panty twisting cope is sooooo

Both are the result of fascist party rising at the expense of moderates though… just in different system/context, in one Macron got merked, in the other Tories did.

The fascists only get 4 seats in UK Parliament (same as greens) but that doesn’t tell the story of ~180 seats I heard reported the Tories lost because the far right was strong enough to split the vote.

Labour didn’t win any more votes than under Corbyn’s weaker years, and lost a lot of votes compared to Corbyn’s strongest. The Tories were just that weak vs the ascending far right.

For France I do expect that in the 2nd round it won’t be the fascists that get to make Government, but if France wants to avoid that the far left will be getting significant power/consessions in some form.

Update post 2nd round of France voting: I’d say in general it’s [probably] a good thing that in both UK and France the result will be farther left government (does Macron get to stay PM despite the left getting most seats?)

But neither Starmer’s centrist Labour Party nor whatever governing coalition comes out in France should be easy at the fact that this further left power comes as the result of ascending facist energy.

 

[Blue glass]

Macron isn't PM, he is the president so he only leaves if he renounces something that he said he wouldn't do regardless of the snap elections results.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Got it, thanks!

 

[boo836]

What demographic locked in the 2020 victories and blocked a red wave in 2022?

Gen Z coming out and voting way way way more than Millennials, more comparable to Baby Boomer. The most terrifying part of the current calculus is that Biden’s lost it where any other Democrat would have it locked in. Any other Dem can definitely change that piece significantly

"The most terrifying part of the current calculus is that Biden’s lost it where any other Democrat would have it locked in" no they wouldn't have lmao. Even if we assume that Gen Z is the "most progressive generation" a lot of delusional middle-aged millennials think it is, "left-wing" media aimed at people <28 is almost entirely focused on discouraging voting and misinforming the public. "Left-wing media" in the States is entirely dominated by the interests of far-right billionaires, whether that's people like Greenwald, Taibbi (and Halper!), or outlets and programmes like Jacobin, or your favourite Rising. Given the role that communications media plays in agenda-setting, those same far-right interests set the public agenda among the "American left." From Soroka:

The Democrats wouldn't "lock in" the vote if it was anyone but Biden running, because the media class would just come up with more bullshit reasons to bolster the Republican Party's electoral standing.

 

[Chou Toshio]

So personally I don’t agree with the opinion in some left, center, and right media that the French election is a great defeat for the right— 24% is still trending up on the longer scale of their election history? Those seats will exercise power. I think the story is still that they flexed growing strength.

In both UK and France both new governments should see this as a grateful last chance to deliver for the people to a radical degree (France much more likely to use it well)— such as to put the right’s threat to rest. And put in place structural reforms at all possible to hold future power.

Hoping this is a good omen for the Dems also winning another last chance.

edit: Anyway, as we say in Smogon— “We take those.”

 

[RaikouLover]

So personally I don’t agree with the opinion in some left, center, and right media that the French election is a great defeat for the right— 24% is still trending up on the longer scale of their election history? Those seats will exercise power. I think the story is still that they flexed growing strength.

Who holds the governing power? I am not versed in multi-party parliamentary politics.

In the US, it is winner take all governance. There is no spin or moral victories with losing elections. Winners govern and losers cry about it.

 

[ASMRxism]

So personally I don’t agree with the opinion in some left, center, and right media that the French election is a great defeat for the right— 24% is still trending up on the longer scale of their election history? Those seats will exercise power. I think the story is still that they flexed growing strength.

the story is that they didn't grow nearly as much as expected, ending up with a split government when they were poised for a massive power grab.

interestingly, France prevented the rise of the far-right by giving up on their centrist platform and working with the left, even strategically withdrawing centrist candidates in favor of candidates who stood a better chance of beating the right.

what a concept.

 

[Techno]

I just found this thread & haven't seen it discussed recently, but I want to bring up Project 2025. This is a 900+ page playbook explaining exactly how a second Trump administration would destroy democracy. The person behind this even said that "a second American revolution is underway, and it will remain bloodless if the left allows it." If you think your vote doesn't matter this election, you could not be more wrong.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

(For the record: I am not a major fan of Biden. I think he's too old and needs to step down. But I also understand what's on the line in this election.)

 

[BigFatMantis]

I just found this thread & haven't seen it discussed recently, but I want to bring up Project 2025. This is a 900+ page playbook explaining exactly how a second Trump administration would destroy democracy. The person behind this even said that "a second American revolution is underway, and it will remain bloodless if the left allows it." If you think your vote doesn't matter this election, you could not be more wrong.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

(For the record: I am not a major fan of Biden. I think he's too old and needs to step down. But I also understand what's on the line in this election.)

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Just want to point out that Trump has publicly stated he has no connection with Project 2025 and disagrees with a lot of what’s said in there. Also the RNC just officially changed their stance on abortion today in that they no longer support any federal restrictions on abortion, basically letting the states decide it. It’s not the best thing sure, but at least it’s somewhat better.

Not saying that a republican president WOULDNT push a lot of the stuff in Project 2025, but I do think a lot of the concern over it is doomer politics over things that will never happen anyways, as it hardly has support from the very party it’s supposed to represent. Nonetheless, an actual competent democratic president is certainly the best option this election cycle.

 

[BigFatMantis]

Literally all of the architects of Project 2025 were part of his administration - does it really matter if he personally supports it?

I would think so yes, but maybe let’s just make sure a democrat wins so we don’t have to worry about it anyways

 

[RaikouLover]

Just want to point out that Trump has publicly stated he has no connection with Project 2025 and disagrees with a lot of what’s said in there. Also the RNC just officially changed their stance on abortion today in that they no longer support any federal restrictions on abortion, basically letting the states decide it. It’s not the best thing sure, but at least it’s somewhat better.

Convicted felon Trump and the Republicans would never lie about project 2025! Justices Gorsuch, Kavannaugh, and Barrett did not lie about overturning Roe! Naw, they wouldn’t do that.

 

[faint]

I just found this thread & haven't seen it discussed recently, but I want to bring up Project 2025. This is a 900+ page playbook explaining exactly how a second Trump administration would destroy democracy. The person behind this even said that "a second American revolution is underway, and it will remain bloodless if the left allows it." If you think your vote doesn't matter this election, you could not be more wrong.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

(For the record: I am not a major fan of Biden. I think he's too old and needs to step down. But I also understand what's on the line in this election.)

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In the last thread I openly stated that I don't really believe this project has any ground and the majority of it would be impossible to make happen. I mean one of the bullet points states defending the FBI and homeland security. I don't see how that's ever going to happen in the lifetime of anyone reading this.

People have argued it's sprinkled with some impossible tasks so that it's not taken too seriously but I think one of my biggest gripes with it is how often it is talked about in the media but never mentioned by Congressman and the like. Fear is an excellent motive to get people to vote so I can't understand why the DNC isn't making this a core part of their campaign against Trump. Sounds like a slam dunk if you ask me.

 

[earthflax]

Unironically yes. Trump came very close to winning Minnesota and within a hair of winning New Hampshire in 2016, while Virginia and New Jersey both swung sharply to the right in their 2021 gubernatorial elections. These are all states Biden could easily lose if things continue the way they are.

Virginia native here - Virginia is unloseable for Dems if there is even a smidgen of spending or campaigning done here. In theory it seems like an interesting "up for grabs" type deal, but the key thing about the gubernatorial election people harp on about as proof that VA (and to a lesser extent NJ) are any level of contentious: Trump wasn't on the ballot. I can't speak for NJ but I imagine it is the same deal there; you also have to understand that not only do these gubernatorial elections have pitifully low turnout (it was in the 50s for VA and forty fucking percent for NJ), but they also draw the sort of semi-affluent people who care about state economic policy that benefits them but are on the whole socially liberal and would not vote for Trump or anyone of his ilk.

 

[TheMantyke]

Just want to point out that Trump has publicly stated he has no connection with Project 2025 and disagrees with a lot of what’s said in there. Also the RNC just officially changed their stance on abortion today in that they no longer support any federal restrictions on abortion, basically letting the states decide it. It’s not the best thing sure, but at least it’s somewhat better.

Not saying that a republican president WOULDNT push a lot of the stuff in Project 2025, but I do think a lot of the concern over it is doomer politics over things that will never happen anyways, as it hardly has support from the very party it’s supposed to represent. Nonetheless, an actual competent democratic president is certainly the best option this election cycle.

Be very careful about accepting what far-right politicians say as what they mean. They bathe in plausible deniability. It is a cornerstone tool to let these wretched ideas incubate relatively undisturbed.

Saying "I know nothing about Project 2025" should not be accepted at its face value or as a sign he does not endorse a majority of the proposed actions. Not only did he immediately wish the organization luck after denying involvement, but his political history clearly shows support for most all of the bulleted points. He was enthusiastically pro oil and gas with no regard for the environment throughout his presidency. He repeatedly subjected public systems to either crony hires or near-transparent malicious sabotage (the post office in 2020, for example). He has shown an enthusiasm for flippant use of captial punishment throughout his whole life. Just about the only thing he doesn't really have his heart in there is the anti-LGBTQ stuff, which he hasn't been as deranged about (but still very much not good at all!) compared to the spectacular insanity in the right the past three years or so.

The statement reads like it's not an enthusiastic condemnation. Just the smallest amount of prying at his history reveals there is very much a connection there; it's a lie. Please treat the loudest voices on the far right with this sort of scrutiny. It does not take that long of a search to find out what an RFK JR or an Alex Jones really are when their actions say the same thing over and over again. The republicans are saying they are leaving abortion as a matter of state's rights after striking down Roe v Wade and enthusiastic for a federal ban until today. This is not a legitimate change of heart in policy. This is masking their transparent ideology behind paper to give folks too disinterested or confused with politics the thinnest excuse it's not all bad, through sweet sweet plausible deniability.

I do not think that the current level of concern over Project 2025 is unwarranted. A lot of it seems monstrously ambitious and impractical to actually accomplish, but I also do not want to see what sort of a swing they take at it when it's this outrageously mask-off. Horrible stuff is happening in the world with little intervention. Stochastic terrorism against LGBTQ folks has continued harder than ever the last three years harder than ever as social media accounts egg on followers with practically no repercussions. "The Great Replacement Theory" has been painted in enough makeup that such a wickedly evil, deeply flawed, thoroughly disproven conspiracy with enough of a body count already has found air time on Fox News. Things are very bad and have continued to get uglier. I couldn't imagine Charlottesville in 2016, and I can't imagine what a good 2024 election could goad out next from the right.

I hope this post isn't a bit too much. Sabelette pointing out that so much of The Heritage Foundation has the blood of the trump administration infused into it is more than enough to sate the point trump and project 2025 are still marinating together. I just think this approach to the way right wing politicians speak is way too easy a thing to slip into it. Maybe a bit too personal here, but this line of thinking is something I want to loudly decry because it lingered with me for way too long after a pretty far right upbringing. I have to imagine that there are some teenagers on smogon facing that reality too. I hope a big breakdown, even if it's maybe really simple to some folks deeper into this world, can help some people build up their defense against these endless liars.

 

[RaikouLover]

People have argued it's sprinkled with some impossible tasks so that it's not taken too seriously but I think one of my biggest gripes with it is how often it is talked about in the media but never mentioned by Congressman and the like. Fear is an excellent motive to get people to vote so I can't understand why the DNC isn't making this a core part of their campaign against Trump. Sounds like a slam dunk if you ask me.

Why would we not take seriously the only detailed policy the Republican party has put together this election cycle? Why would they create a 900 page outline if it had "no chance" of Republicans trying to implement it? The Heritage Foundation has been bankrolling the Republican party for decades.

The Democrats ARE campaigning on Project 2025. Have you followed any of Biden or Jamie Harrison (DNC Chair)'s campaign accounts? Are you on any email lists?

Abortion and Project 2025 are going to win Democrats the election in November.

Unironically yes. Trump came very close to winning Minnesota and within a hair of winning New Hampshire in 2016, while Virginia and New Jersey both swung sharply to the right in their 2021 gubernatorial elections. These are all states Biden could easily lose if things continue the way they are.

Virginia native here - Virginia is unloseable for Dems if there is even a smidgen of spending or campaigning done here. In theory it seems like an interesting "up for grabs" type deal, but the key thing about the gubernatorial election people harp on about as proof that VA (and to a lesser extent NJ) are any level of contentious: Trump wasn't on the ballot. I can't speak for NJ but I imagine it is the same deal there; you also have to understand that not only do these gubernatorial elections have pitifully low turnout (it was in the 50s for VA and forty fucking percent for NJ), but they also draw the sort of semi-affluent people who care about state economic policy that benefits them but are on the whole socially liberal and would not vote for Trump or anyone of his ilk.

As Virginia becomes more integrated with the rest of the northeast this dynamic will continue to show. The Northeast has a long history of electing "liberal" Republican governors and it has absolutely zero correlation to how the states vote in Senate and Presidential Elections. Massachusetts (Charlie Baker) and Maryland (Larry Hogan) just had popular 2-term GOP Governors and I hope no one is delusional enough to think either of those states are competitive. Trump will lose each by 25-30 points. Larry Hogan left Maryland with over 60% approval rating and is about to get bludgeoned in the Senate race. In New Jersey, we had Chris Christie for 8 years yet no Republican has won a Senate or Presidential race in over thirty years. Bob Menendez is probably going to jail for corruption and he won by 10 points in the 2018 Senate race! Vermont has Phil Smith. New Hampshire has had Sununu in office for 8 years and swung hard to the Democrats in the Senate and Presidential races (in 2022 Maggie Hassan had a rout). A lot of this has to do with the Northeastern states having near supermajorities in the legislatures. The GOP governor gets elected often as a "check" on the legislature's spending.

Anyway, the point being - Trump campaign can waste time and money if they wants. But that's all it will be. A waste.

 

[adjectivenoun]

I just found this thread & haven't seen it discussed recently, but I want to bring up Project 2025. This is a 900+ page playbook explaining exactly how a second Trump administration would destroy democracy. The person behind this even said that "a second American revolution is underway, and it will remain bloodless if the left allows it." If you think your vote doesn't matter this election, you could not be more wrong.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

(For the record: I am not a major fan of Biden. I think he's too old and needs to step down. But I also understand what's on the line in this election.)

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It's been discussed before. Here are my thoughts:

Project 2025 is certainly cause for concern, but describing it as "Donald Trump's plan" is extremely misleading. The institution behind the plan is the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that has been a major influence on Republican policy since the Reagan years. The plan is a collection of policy proposals that does not necessarily reflect Trump's intentions for a hypothetical second term. In fact, I strongly doubt that Trump, a man who seems far more concerned with enriching himself and his cronies than with matters of policy, will fully realize the goals of Project 2025 if he wins in November. It should still be greatly worrying that a major influence on Republican policy is being so open about its desire to turn the President into an autocrat, but Project 2025 should not be treated as an inevitable reality should Trump get a second term.

 

[faint]

Why would we not take seriously the only detailed policy the Republican party has put together this election cycle? Why would they create a 900 page outline if it had "no chance" of Republicans trying to implement it? The Heritage Foundation has been bankrolling the Republican party for decades.

The Democrats ARE campaigning on Project 2025. Have you followed any of Biden or Jamie Harrison (DNC Chair)'s campaign accounts? Are you on any email lists?

Abortion and Project 2025 are going to win Democrats the election in November.

I am not a registered Democrat so no, I'm not on ActBlue findom mailing lists begging me to give money to candidates I don't care about. This is also true for most Americans. They don't hear about Project 2025 from the Chairman of the DNC. But they can hear about it from people they actually know about. Biden could have mentioned it in the debate or during one of his recent speeches if what you say is true, and unless I missed something, he didn't.