Serious The Politics Thread

[RaikouLover]

Old people do not and are not voting because of ageism. You people need to stop claiming such stupid things without at least providing a source besides "trust me bro."

They vote because they have more time, are recipients of medicare and social security, are represented by groups like AARP, and often have closer ties to their community. That's it. They're not running for president so they don't care if you call Joe Biden old.

President Biden has outperformed prior Democrats among the 65+ demographic, and if you subscribe to the 2024 “polls” is doing even better this cycle. So regardless of what you think their intentions are, the data says Biden ageism attacks are at worst not effective, and at best- helpful to him among those voters.

 

[faint]

President Biden has outperformed prior Democrats among the 65+ demographic, and if you subscribe to the 2024 “polls” is doing even better this cycle. So regardless of what you think their intentions are, the data says Biden ageism attacks are at worst not effective, and at best- helpful to him.

You've proven over and over you can convince yourself of anything but as "Mr. 60 years of voting history" I don't understand how you look at one data point, the same one showing Trump is gaining votes with the youth and minorities, and agree with it because of confirmation bias you while throwing out the other data solely because you don't want to be true. Per Axios,

• Republicans have — with the exception of 1992, 1996 and 2000 — won the senior vote in every presidential race for the last half-century, according to exit polls.

I will let you read the rest of the article to see why they're supporting him. Hint: it's not because he's being called old.

Additionally, the people calling for Biden to step down or being critical of him are not being ageist. They're concerned about his mental fortitude, not his age. We've gone over this time and time again.

 

[RaikouLover]

You've proven over and over you can convince yourself of anything but as "Mr. 60 years of voting history" I don't understand how you look at one data point, the same one showing Trump is gaining votes with the youth and minorities, and agree with it because of confirmation bias you while throwing out the other data solely because you don't want to
be true. Per Axios,

• Republicans have — with the exception of 1992, 1996 and 2000 — won the senior vote in every presidential race for the last half-century, according to exit polls.

I will let you read the rest of the article to see why they're supporting him. Hint: it's not because he's being called old.

President Biden outperformed the Democrats among 65+ in the 2020 election. He is “polling” even better among the demographic this cycle. The bottom line is- the ageism attack is either not effective, or net positive among those voters. Do what you want with these data points.

Additionally, the people calling for Biden to step down or being critical of him are not being ageist. They're concerned about his mental fortitude, not his age. We've gone over this time and time again.

Respectfully, I think is a naive statement. “Mental fortitude” and “dementia” are ageism dogwhistles. Just like how they call Kamala Harris the “DEI” Vice President. Dog whistles.

 

[faint]

President Biden outperformed the Democrats among 65+ in the 2020 election. He is “polling” even better among the demographic this cycle. The bottom line is- the ageism attack is either not effective, or net positive among those voters. Do what you want with these data points.



Respectfully, I think is a naive statement. “Mental fortitude” and “dementia” are ageism dogwhistles. Just like how they call Kamala Harris the “DEI” Vice President. Dog whistles.

Every single demographic had higher numbers in 2020. It's insane to use an outlier election year when the world was completely fucked as a baseline for modern voting. If he's leading even more in the 65+ demo, that's great, but that doesn't mean it has anything to do with ageism. They might just not want to see the country turn to fascism per the Axios article I linked you.

Comparing the mental fortitude of Biden to people calling Kamala a DEI VP is incredibly disingenuous and you know it. Not everything you read online is a secret right-wing dogwhistle. You can be critical of Biden's fit for office regardless of your party affiliation. Going on and on about ageism is so stupid when the two candidates are a year apart.

 

[Magcargo]

The mental fortitude argument seems like cap. I watch most of Biden's statements and when you listen to the points he's actually trying to get across, most of them are fairly valid even if they aren't exactly well-spoken. It isn't just rambling nonsense like some may claim. The man is old, has a stutter, and can get numbers mixed up (which I'd say is fairly normal) and even then, I can see his commentary is making some kind of point. I'm genuinely not sure why Biden making gaffs is seen as more mentally inept than half the nonsense trump spouts off with no filter (which also gets him into multiple lawsuits might I add). Perhaps its because his tone is better?

Wanting Biden to step down because some of his policies or because his performance is poor is fair, but the mental fortitude argument just seems like disingenuous bullshit.

 

[faint]

The mental fortitude argument seems like cap. I watch most of Biden's statements and when you listen to the points he's actually trying to get across, most of them are fairly valid even if they aren't exactly well-spoken. It isn't just rambling nonsense like some may claim. The man is old, has a stutter, and can get numbers mixed up (which I'd say is fairly normal) and even then, I can see his commentary is making some kind of point. I'm genuinely not sure why Biden making gaffs is seen as more mentally inept than half the nonsense trump spouts off with no filter (which also gets him into multiple lawsuits might I add). Perhaps its because his tone is better?

Wanting Biden to step down because some of his policies or because his performance is poor is fair, but the mental fortitude argument just seems like disingenuous bullshit.

He is the President of the United States. When I hear arguments like this I truly don't think the individual grasps how important of a position that is. He is not a Senator that can be hidden from the public through their aides. At some point, the President is forced to make difficult decisions. I want those decisions to be made by someone that hasn't clearly deteriorated over the last 4 years. This position is fine to hold if you're unfamiliar with Biden's past, but I ask that you please go watch him debate/speak in 2016 and tell me that he's simply "aged" 8 years. He's always made gaffes and those don't concern me. His awareness of what's going on at all times does.

If I was the sole person to think this, the DNC would not be having a civil war over what to do with him. Their job is to prop up their candidate and right now that is Joe Biden. Yet Obama, Pelosi, Jeffries, and many more have not publicly endorsed him. Ask yourself why that is.

Go on about how polls don't matter but when Trump wins this November and you're complaining about how we're heading towards fascism, perhaps remember these signs that he's not the guy you want running this November.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812906012862783653

 

[RaikouLover]

Go on about how polls don't matter but when Trump wins this November and you're complaining about how we're heading towards fascism, perhaps remember these signs that he's not the guy you want running this November.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812906012862783653

Oh, right. The polls, the polls, the polls. The “polls” that aren’t getting any meaningful samples of non-white voters, and claim that Trump is winning those demographics. The “polls” that say New York and New Jersey are battleground states.

Throwing an incumbent President with a stable economy in the trash less than four months before an election due to “polls” is the most asinine political idea I’ve ever heard. Good thing you aren’t a campaign strategist.

 

[Timid magnemite]

Funny how Bernie Bros (let's get real, that's what they are) keep using dogwhistles like "mental fortitude" when they really mean to say that Biden is old and dumb, as if either of those things should prevent you from becoming President. Yes, Joe is not the sharpest tool in the shed, but he got us out of Afghanistan and I'd like to see the Cheeto-in-chief manage that. Besides, all he has to do is not plunge the US into fascism overnight to beat any possible Trump presidency, so for all I care he could be a literal vegetable, and I would still vote for him.

 

[Bakugames]

Bernie was a wretched worm in 2016 and hes a wretched worm now whos even less involved in anything election wise, who gives a fuck about them

 

[RaikouLover]

Funny how Bernie Bros (let's get real, that's what they are) keep using dogwhistles like "mental fortitude" when they really mean to say that Biden is old and dumb, as if either of those things should prevent you from becoming President. Yes, Joe is not the sharpest tool in the shed,

This appears to be driving a lot of the disingenuous intra-party discourse around President Biden. Almost all of the attacks are personal in nature. They are coming from losers that he beat in the primary (cough Tim Ryan cough Julian Castro cough Andrew Yang cough), wealthy elite donors, the corporate media, and “frontline” House Democrats in predominantly white districts. (None of the districts they represent are more than 13% black, and they are in for a rude awakening if they think Latino and Asian voters will “buy-in” to aged based attacks).

I say this to point out that President Biden has never been “elite” to same degree as our previous modern presidents. He didn’t attend Ivy League institutions. He’s never been a scholar. President Biden is not “dumb,” he is just not “one of them.”

 

[myowngamertag]

Almost all of the attacks are personal in nature. They are coming from losers that he beat in the primary (cough Tim Ryan cough Julian Castro cough Andrew Yang cough), wealthy elite donors, the corporate media, and “frontline” House Democrats in predominantly white districts.

They're coming from people that are either no longer in office and are safe to say what they want or they are from swing district people desperately doing damage control because they don't want to lose downballot in November. There's nothing personal about it lol, these are the people who either have the privilege to speak out or are most at risk to losing their seats because of this shitshow

 

[RaikouLover]

They're coming from people that are either no longer in office and are safe to say what they want or they are from swing district people desperately doing damage control because they don't want to lose downballot in November. There's nothing personal about it lol, these are the people who either have the privilege to speak out or are most at risk to losing their seats because of this shitshow

It is personal. They aren’t in office because they are losers. And these swing district Democrats get bad campaign advice. They still think running against their own party is smart. How many of them have to lose for them to change their tactics?

Every second and every dollar spent running against your own party/candidate is time and resources not being used painting the Republican opponent as the batshit crazy extremist that they are. Hopefully, they don’t cost Dems the House.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Maybe a good summary would be (assuming no change post Trump shooting):

NED = not easily definable, lacking some quality making it easy to characteristically divide from a similar group in the other side

PP = Personal Politics— seems motivated more by personal circumstance than by ultimate Oval Office win strategy

Total backing of Biden:
-Progressive/Leftist Politicians: Bernie, Squad, much of the Progressive Caucus PP
-High Tier expected 2028 Presidential Nominees PP
-Biden’s family PP
-Some Centrist Party Politicians that love Biden or are extremely action averse NED
-Some Centrist voters that hates the party doing anything drastic and/or love Biden NED
-Some portion of Centrist Media NED
-Some Donors NED

Want Biden Step Down (won’t say anti-Biden because many people in here have genuine affection or some form of approval of the President)
-Progressive Voters / “Online Left”
-Progressive/leftist media
-Democratic Leaders (Obama, Schumer, Pelosi, etc)
-Some down ballot politicians polling ahead of Biden that don’t want to appear with him / campaign together PP
-Some centrist politicians NED
-Some centrist voters NED
-Some parts of the center media NED
-Many Donors NED
-Low Tier 2020 Primary contenders PP

There is a lot of ideological split— neither side is distinctly ideologically split imo.

 

[RaikouLover]

Maybe a good summary would be (assuming no change post Trump shooting):

NED = not easily definable, lacking some quality making it easy to characteristically divide from a similar group in the other side

Total backing of Biden:
-Progressive/Leftist Politicians: Bernie, Squad, much of the Progressive Caucus
-High Tier expected 2028 Presidential Nominees
-Biden’s family
-Some Centrist Party Politicians that love Biden or are extremely action averse NED
-Some Centrist voters that hates the party doing anything drastic and/or love Biden NED
-Some portion of Centrist Media NED
-Some Donors NED

Want Biden Step Down (won’t say anti-Biden because many people in here have genuine affection or some form of approval of the President)
-Progressive Voters / “Online Left”
-Progressive/leftist media
-Democratic Leaders (Obama, Schumer, Pelosi, etc)
-Some centrist politicians NED
-Some centrist voters NED
-Some parts of the center media NED
-Many Donors NED
-Low Tier 2020 Primary contenders

It is telling that this summary lists the “progressive voters / online left” but no mention of the 14 million Democratic primary voters.

 

[Chou Toshio]

It is telling that this summary has no mention of the 14 million Democratic primary voters.

What are you talking about? Almost all Dem voters fall into voter categories above

Also guaranteed that there are many Dem Biden primary voters on the pls step down sir side

Edit: Also not even making any conclusions or prescriptions— just trying to form manageable descriptive buckets. Feel free to draft your own.

 

[faint]

Funny how Bernie Bros (let's get real, that's what they are) keep using dogwhistles like "mental fortitude" when they really mean to say that Biden is old and dumb, as if either of those things should prevent you from becoming President.

the fact that you got the two biggest liberals in this thread to like this post is really funny

 

[RaikouLover]

What are you talking about? Almost all Dem voters fall into voter categories above

The summary lends no mention of the Democratic primary voters, thus it is rediculous.

Speaking of losers, Fox News contributor and Biden-hater Tim Ryan, lost to JD Vance, Trump’s declared VP nominee. JD Vance accuses President Biden’s “rhetoric” of being responsible for the assassination attempt on Trump’s life. Forget the idea of Republicans getting any sympathy votes. The RNC circus is underway. Get your popcorn.

 

[Chou Toshio]

mentioning primary voters would be pointless because undoubtedly there’s a fair split there too, and many side switchers post debate.



To be clear I don’t think Biden is dumb or mentally challenged, especially for his age— I just don’t think he’s got what’s needed to meet the moment and win.

If it weren’t for Gaza and if he was extremely rigorous I’d be super Ridin’ Biden— another timeline I had been hoping for up until Oct last year.

Even now I don’t think any possible replacement will be as good for the left or the country’s future fortunes as Biden.

This is just an issue of viability in my mind.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Okay, just saw the JD Vance announcement— picking Vance means the GOP really thinks they got this wrapped up.

Most Republican commentary I saw earlier in the year said that Vance only made sense in an election they expect to be a blow out since he’s just an ideologically aligned Yes man with no real “capture other constituents” the way Pence was and the way most VP picks are. He adds no voters on top of what Trump would get (except maybe locking in the Nazis? The groipers going to come back to the roost)

This is a hyper-serve the base pick
(wish the Dems would do this actually— not now but sometimes)

They are sure they’re just going to dominate— I can’t blame them.

Could be an over-extension though— might be like last mon Luke SD when you got SR and all layers down and all your opponents mons are in Extreme Speed range; but I feel like it is a strong but punishable play. Like they might not know I’m crazy enough to run Scarf Skarm with full ATK EVs and your Luke is actually in Brave Bird range. We’ll see.

 

[RaikouLover]

This is a hyper-serve the base pick
(wish the Dems would do this actually)

They are sure they’re just going to dominate— I can’t blame them.

All in on the hype, huh? Republicans are not going to dominate.

The JD Vance pick means the VP debate with Harris could be watchable. Electorally, the pick makes no sense whatsoever. Vance does not have a more moderate brand that can assauge disaffected Republicans. The pick serves only Trump’s ego. Vance will be the yes man willing to bow to dear leader.

I would think Glenn Youngkin or someone like Chris Sununu or Brian Kemp would make more sense. They are in states Republicans want to claw back and would serve as a “unity” GOP ticket. Fortunately, Trump knows they would have issues with his authoritarian aspirations. He needed a fellow grifter and he got one.

 

[Laurel]

I hate conspiracy theories. However, the amount of right-wing retweets within 10 minutes on Twitter with him making the fist pump directly into the camera with blood running down his face has my spidey sense tingling. Too many Republicans seem giddy about this. It is really weird.

look at Ted Cruz tweet. Looks like Hunger Games propo.

View attachment 647650

because republicans knew the second this happened the election outcome they wanted was guaranteed. I'll be surprised if Biden wins a single swing state at this point.

 

[Chou Toshio]

All in on the hype, huh? Republicans are not going to dominate.

The JD Vance pick means the VP debate with Harris could be watchable. Electorally, the pick makes no sense whatsoever. Vance does not have a more moderate brand that can assauge disaffected Republicans. The pick serves only Trump’s ego. Vance will be the yes man willing to bow to dear leader.

I would think Glenn Youngkin or someone like Chris Sununu or Brian Kemp would make more sense. They are in states Republicans want to claw back and would serve as a “unity” GOP ticket. Fortunately, Trump knows they would have issues with his authoritarian aspirations. He needed a fellow grifter and he got one.

That would be the anti-Vance case.

Like I said, I think it could be a punishable over-extension—

—but I do think you always underestimate the value of narrative, of engagement, of energizing the base, of big plays that leave a strong impression in the dialectic.

Sometimes early terrastelize gets punished— and sometimes Midgame Normal Dragonite just ends the game. We’ll see.

edit: Laurel can’t say you’re wrong

 

[Laurel]

That would be the anti-Vance case.

Like I said, I think it could be a punishable over-extension—

—but I do think you always underestimate the value of narrative, of engagement, of energizing the base, of big plays that leave a strong impression in the dialectic.

Sometimes early terrastelize gets punished— and sometimes Midgame Normal Dragonite just ends the game. We’ll see.

edit: Laurel can’t say you’re wrong

Yeah, I mean it's like when you're already up 6-3 and you just got a free DD on the switch. Looked over before, and it's certainly over now.

 

[Chou Toshio]

This is how I feel now…
best political commentary on Smogon.

Human stupidity leading us down the gallows.
We can’t get rid of Biden.
We can’t get rid of Trump.
We can’t get rid of BW Reuniclus.
We can’t get rid of DPP Iron Head Jirachi.
We can’t even get rid of DPP Machamp and will have to endure pages and pages of anti-progress panty-twisters coming up with the most ridiculously whipped up reasons for why we have to value Dynamic Punch spam’s contribution to the metagame.

And in the end the tiering leaders will come out and tell us why the system must be built robust against the rhetoric driven by overly influential YouTubers or something lololol

 

[RaikouLover]

—but I do think you always underestimate the value of narrative, of engagement, of energizing the base, of big plays that leave a strong impression in the dialectic.

I get it. Narrative and engagement are fun. But we call it being prisoner of the moment. President Biden has been in politics for 50 years and former President convicted felon Trump has been the center of US politics for over eight years. Everything about these two is baked in. I am still going to bet that 53% of the electorate will vote for a dead person over Trump.

Yeah, I mean it's like when you're already up 6-3 and you just got a free DD on the switch. Looked over before, and it's certainly over now.

Failed analogy. President Biden is the incumbent. It’s his terrain now. His team has higher base stats, and is leading the hazard war. Trump is down 4-6. He needs all the help he can get.