Serious The Politics Thread

[MrHands]

To add to what RaikouLover said if the election was held today and if polling is more or less correct this is how the election will go.

Based off 270towin's and 538's polls

Edit: The "swingiest" swing states are Nevada and Georgia so there's actually some outcomes where the Democrats get over 300 electoral votes and the Republicans get low 200s. Arizona is blue by 2% which isn't "low" but it's the lowest lead the Democrats have in the swing states where they're ahead, but even if the Republicans do "better than expected" taking Arizona the Democrats will still win.

Do I have nightmares from 2016 and am coping? Almost certainly. But the numbers really do look good for the Democrats.

 

[RaikouLover]

To add to what RaikouLover said if the election was held today and if polling is more or less correct this is how the election will go.

Based off 270towin's and 538's polls
View attachment 659978

Polling is not correct (the polls are bullshit). Nevada should be blue and we should be bullish on Georgia. Republicans have lost 3 consecutive Senate elections and the Pres in 2020 in Georgia. I do believe North Carolina flips this cycle (it’s only been about 1.5% behind Georgia and Arizona the last few cycles). And some forecasters such as Chris Bouzy actually think Florida Pres and Senate will flip. I’m not there on Florida, but I see no evidence to suggest Trump will win any of the seven battleground states.

 

[MrHands]

Polling is not correct (the polls are bullshit). Nevada should be blue and we should be bullish on Georgia. Republicans have lost 3 consecutive Senate elections and the Pres in 2020 in Georgia. I do believe North Carolina flips this cycle (it’s only been about 1.5% behind Georgia and Arizona the last few cycles). And some forecasters such as Chris Bouzy actually think Florida Pres and Senate will flip. I’m not there on Florida, but I see no evidence to suggest Trump will win any of the seven battleground states.

I want to believe.

 

[Bughouse]

Not “evidence” by any means, but native Georgian here and per my family, the feeling was that Trump was most likely winning the state prior to him going after Governor Kemp hard. That may well have cost him the state if it’s as narrow as last time. Also Georgia is sadly probably not going to certify electoral votes for Harris anyway due to ratfuckery!

Nevada is confusing but may actually go red even while electing Senator Rosen in a landslide. I suspect a lot of the current polling lead was due to the no tax on tips policy and that’s why Harris copied/modified Trump’s proposal and announced it while in Nevada. Polling just hasn’t caught up to public awareness there. Nevada also may just be trending right as more conservative ex californians filter in.

 

[RaikouLover]

Not “evidence” by any means, but native Georgian here and per my family, the feeling was that Trump was most likely winning the state prior to him going after Governor Kemp hard. That may well have cost him the state if it’s as narrow as last time. Also Georgia is sadly probably not going to certify electoral votes for Harris anyway due to ratfuckery!

Feelings, sure! Fact remains, Democrats have won the last 4 federal elections in Georgia.

Nevada is confusing but may actually go red even while electing Senator Rosen in a landslide. I suspect a lot of the current polling lead was due to the no tax on tips policy and that’s why Harris copied/modified Trump’s proposal and announced it while in Nevada. Polling just hasn’t caught up to public awareness there. Nevada also may just be trending right as more conservative ex californians filter in.

Or the polling is just wrong. When’s the last time Republicans won a statewide Federal election in Nevada? Convicted felon Trump is 0/2… We are supposed to believe he picked up new voters in Nevada? And these are Rosen-Trump voters? Where is the evidence they exist?

 

[Magcargo]

Polling is not correct (the polls are bullshit). Nevada should be blue and we should be bullish on Georgia. Republicans have lost 3 consecutive Senate elections and the Pres in 2020 in Georgia. I do believe North Carolina flips this cycle (it’s only been about 1.5% behind Georgia and Arizona the last few cycles). And some forecasters such as Chris Bouzy actually think Florida Pres and Senate will flip. I’m not there on Florida, but I see no evidence to suggest Trump will win any of the seven battleground states.

From what I've heard, electorates that will refuse to certify the election have been installed in each of the battleground states.

 

[RaikouLover]

From what I've heard, electorates that will refuse to certify the election have been installed in each of the battleground states.

Sounds like a tenable position for losers.

 

[ant4456]

Yes, it is looking good for Harris. Convicted felon Trump is a horrible politician. He has never even received 47% of the vote. And he will be sentenced in a few weeks.

I'm sorry but Donald Trump is not going to prison, rich people don't go to prison unless they do actually insane stuff

Like companies can kill people and it doesn't matter, I mean we saw Boeing a few months ago. Plus, if Trump goes to jail it will cause like 20% of the population to civil unrest

At best, if Trump loses the election and loses any power, maybe prosecutors will push further buut

 

[RaikouLover]

I'm sorry but Donald Trump is not going to prison, rich people don't go to prison unless they do actually insane stuff

Like companies can kill people and it doesn't matter, I mean we saw Boeing a few months ago. Plus, if Trump goes to jail it will cause like 20% of the population to civil unrest

So don’t enforce the law because crazy people get mad? 34 felony counts committed to steal an election is indeed fucking insane. Let’s not make excuses for this behavior.

 

[ant4456]

So don’t enforce the law because crazy people get mad? 34 felony counts committed to steal an election is indeed fucking insane. Let’s not make excuses for this behavior.

I'm not saying it's a good excuse I'm saying it is how America works lol, it's not even a Trump Thing

Rich people don't go to jail when they do crimes 99% of the time, they get sued and lose money, and then as rich people they keep living their lifestyle on borrowed cash

The one truthful statement Trump said in the entire ordeal was that the crimes they got Trump on were basically the same thing most rich people are guilty of

 

[RaikouLover]

I'm not saying it's a good excuse I'm saying it is how America works lol, it's not even a Trump Thing

Rich people don't go to jail when they do crimes 99% of the time, they get sued and lose money, and then as rich people they keep living their lifestyle on borrowed cash

The one truthful statement Trump said in the entire ordeal was that the crimes they got Trump on were basically the same thing most rich people are guilty of

These “rich people” crimes were in pursuit of (and successfully) stealing an election. It’s different and more significant.

 

[ant4456]

These “rich people” crimes were in pursuit of (and successfully) stealing an election. It’s different and more significant.

Okay but we've had presidents and rich people do that before

Like I don't get how hard this is to get, for any part you can say this is worse, them being rich makes it less bad in the eye of the law. Rich people are not American citizens in the colloquial sense. They are rich people. Have the class consciousness to recognize that most of the law is to protect rich property and that penalties in rich people vs rich people crime are property, not jailtime.

All of the crimes Trump has been indicted for are rich on rich crime. The punishment is always going to be his property. To be a rich person and go to jail is to be someone at the scale of Epstein who also was therefore totally-not-murdered in prison because he had dirt on most rich people!

Rich people are not given the same treatment by the law as normal people! If a normal person tried to steal an election, yes, it'd be life imprisonment, their entire family tree would be ashamed for generations. But that isn't how rich people work in our law lol

Rich people only go to jail if it is required to prove to the public that there is justice, and a significant portion of our country thinks Trump is actually the secret child of God, so like. Not happening

 

[RaikouLover]

Okay but we've had presidents and rich people do that before

We have? Which President(tial candidates) have committed almost 3 dozen felonies while stealing an election? Adding in the fact he did it in a jurisdiction (Manhattan) in which 90% of the electorate voted against him. This is not friendly territory…

 

[S.A.C. Martin]

We have? Which President(tial candidates) have committed almost 3 dozen felonies while stealing an election? Adding in the fact he did it in a jurisdiction (Manhattan) in which 90% of the electorate voted against him. This is not friendly territory…

I remain mystified by Americans who happily accept Trump and hold him up as someone worthy of the Oval Office, when he absolutely isn’t.

It says much about the sorry state of republicans and the Republican Party that their best bet for winning an election for the last eight years is…that…

I’ve disliked a lot of British prime ministers and the last few Tory ones have been truly awful creatures, but Trump in the democratic part of the world is by far the worst human being to be placed in a position of power.

 

[Medeia]

I remain mystified by Americans who happily accept Trump and hold him up as someone worthy of the Oval Office, when he absolutely isn’t.

It says much about the sorry state of republicans and the Republican Party that their best bet for winning an election for the last eight years is…that…

I’ve disliked a lot of British prime ministers and the last few Tory ones have been truly awful creatures, but Trump in the democratic part of the world is by far the worst human being to be placed in a position of power.

Bolsonaro in Brazil was arguably worse in recent times with all the same shit Trump has done aswell as amazon forest getting cut down way more under his tenure than of any other Brazilian president (should be a crime against humanity honestly). Either way the far-right wannabe dictators and their supporters are a shit stain in this world and i treat these fuckers like the pieces of shits they are, not gonna pretend like their beliefs are anything but a joke at best and a catastrophe for other humans at worst.

 

[S.A.C. Martin]

Bolsonaro in Brazil was arguably worse in recent times with all the same shit Trump has done aswell as amazon forest getting cut down way more under his tenure than of any other Brazilian president (should be a crime against humanity honestly). Either way the far-right wannabe dictators and their supporters are a shit stain in this world and i treat these fuckers like the pieces of shits they are, not gonna pretend like their beliefs are anything but a joke at best and a catastrophe for other humans at worst.

Oh god Bolsonaro. I had forgot about him. Completely agree.

 

[Local Dog]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/har...upport-1st-time-homeowners/story?id=112877568

Harris proposes a $25k payment support for first time homeowners.
Guess who just put a $25k downpayment on a house literally yesterday....

I don't know if that's such a good idea

It may just lead to people flipping houses for even more money, making this a subvention for sellers instead of buyers

I think the housing market needs more radical changes to make the ownership of property more accessible. What these changes should be, idk, I never bought or sold a house

 

[adjectivenoun]

Donald Trump isn't going to prison before the election. The Supreme Court made sure of that. If he loses the election, he might go to prison, but I wouldn't put money on it. As a rich person, the only reliable ways to go to prison are fucking with other rich people's money and getting outed for a sex crime so heinous that you have to fall on the sword for your bedfellows.

 

[RaikouLover]

I don't know if that's such a good idea

It may just lead to people flipping houses for even more money, making this a subvention for sellers instead of buyers

Flipping houses on a first time homebuyer program would be mortgage fraud. You must live in the house for at least a year and you only qualify once. Otherwise, fraud.

I think the housing market needs more radical changes to make the ownership of property more accessible. What these changes should be, idk, I never bought or sold a house

The solution is to build a lot more housing units in the markets people want to live in. There’s a housing stock shortage and everyone is chasing the same areas. You can buy a piece of shit in the worst part Detroit or Memphis for damn near nothing. Anything in California, Metro NYC, Greater Boston, the DMV…. Lmaooooo good luck!

It’s a supply and demand problem. No easy fix any time soon.

Donald Trump isn't going to prison before the election. The Supreme Court made sure of that. If he loses the election, he might go to prison, but I wouldn't put money on it. As a rich person, the only reliable ways to go to prison are fucking with other rich people's money and getting outed for a sex crime so heinous that you have to fall on the sword for your bedfellows.

They are NY STATE crimes that he committed as a private citizen before he was even president. We have to stop excusing and normalizing this shit. He’s a fucking criminal. Criminals with 34 felonies go to jail.

 

[ant4456]

They are NY STATE crimes that he committed as a private citizen before he was even president. We have to stop excusing and normalizing this shit. He’s a fucking criminal. Criminals with 34 felonies go to jail.

You literally just proved the point lol, rich people can get away with crimes even when they aren't the president.

It's not up to people on Smogon to "normalize this shit" or not. You and I have zero weight in this. Money makes right in a capitalist society, rich people aren't subject to the same standards. Almost every extremely rich person has done similar things to him. The only reason he's been so publicly prosecuted at all is because he was the President, and if he wasn't he'd take a slap on the wrist at most, and go back to being a crook like every single rich failson.

This is a problem with a capitalist society, not individual people "normalizing" stuff. When people protest rich people, police shoot poor people. When rich people attack the poor, it's a man of class protecting himself or his business from those jealous cretins who couldn't last a day in his job of being on a jet plane and talking to other rich people.

Having money is having power.

Wait until you find out our prison industry is designed to criminalize poor existence to make more money lol

 

[adjectivenoun]

They are NY STATE crimes that he committed as a private citizen before he was even president. We have to stop excusing and normalizing this shit. He’s a fucking criminal. Criminals with 34 felonies go to jail.

This is a disingenuous accusation, and I resent it. Nobody is trying to excuse or normalize Trump's actions by saying that he's not likely to go to prison for them — I, for one, would be positively overjoyed if my assessment turns out to be incorrect, and he really does spend his last days rotting in a cell — we're just skeptical that the American justice system, which has a long and storied history of compromising its ideals to protect the interests of the wealthy, will do the right thing in this instance. You could argue that Trump is a special case to whom that precedent is less likely to apply, and I wouldn't actually be surprised if capital eventually throws him overboard to quell unrest, but not having faith in such arguments is not at all equivalent to believing that Trump's actions are normal or acceptable.

 

[Local Dog]

Flipping houses on a first time homebuyer program would be mortgage fraud. You must live in the house for at least a year and you only qualify once. Otherwise, fraud.

No I meant that houseflippers see the opportunity to raise their prices as potential buyers have an easier way to become liquid. That's what I meant by the 25k funds becoming subventions for the sellers instead of the buyers. It's an opportunity for home sellers to raise the price of their property by 25k, the net price for potential buyers is the same as it was before, but the seller can squeeze out 25k from the gov

 

[RaikouLover]

You literally just proved the point lol, rich people can get away with crimes even when they aren't the president.

It's not up to people on Smogon to "normalize this shit" or not. You and I have zero weight in this. Money makes right in a capitalist society, rich people aren't subject to the same standards. Almost every extremely rich person has done similar things to him. The only reason he's been so publicly prosecuted at all is because he was the President, and if he wasn't he'd take a slap on the wrist at most, and go back to being a crook like every single rich failson.

This is a problem with a capitalist society, not individual people "normalizing" stuff. When people protest rich people, police shoot poor people. When rich people attack the poor, it's a man of class protecting himself or his business from those jealous cretins who couldn't last a day in his job of being on a jet plane and talking to other rich people.

Having money is having power.

Wait until you find out our prison industry is designed to criminalize poor existence to make more money lol

This is a disingenuous accusation, and I resent it. Nobody is trying to excuse or normalize Trump's actions by saying that he's not likely to go to prison for them — I, for one, would be positively overjoyed if my assessment turns out to be incorrect, and he really does spend his last days rotting in a cell — we're just skeptical that the American justice system, which has a long and storied history of compromising its ideals to protect the interests of the wealthy, will do the right thing in this instance. You could argue that Trump is a special case to whom that precedent is less likely to apply, and I wouldn't actually be surprised if capital eventually throws him overboard to quell unrest, but not having faith in such arguments is not at all equivalent to believing that Trump's actions are normal or acceptable.

This is preaching to the choir. However, even you personally abhor what convicted felon Trump is done it is still normalizing the behavior if you expect no consequences. These are a state crimes in a state and jurisdiction that are highly antagonistic to Trump. And he’s thumbed his nose at the judge all throughout the trial right up until the jury read his 34 felony convictions. It’s easy to just accept rich people can do whatever they want but we need to start thinking and talking up the ideal justice system we claim to believe in.

No I meant that houseflippers see the opportunity to raise their prices as potential buyers have an easier way to become liquid. That's what I meant by the 25k funds becoming subventions for the sellers instead of the buyers. It's an opportunity for home sellers to raise the price of their property by 25k, the net price for potential buyers is the same as it was before, but the seller can squeeze out 25k from the gov

House flippers don’t control the home prices; the market does. Most first time buyers are only putting down 5%-10%, so the seller hypothetically tacking on $25K doesn’t make much a difference.

What’s more common near me is that sellers under-price the home to drive bidding wars. I’ve watched homes go into market $50K under, to be sold for 50-100K over asking because they enticed more than 30 suckers to submit crazy offers.

 

[ant4456]

I think houses should be cheap and that anyone with a job should be able to afford one

 

[RaikouLover]

I think houses should be cheap and that anyone with a job should be able to afford one

I do too but there is only so much land near desirable areas. There’s a finite amount of land and zoning to contend with. In the hot markets the price of a home is more land than the physical structure. We can build cheap homes out in middle of no where Kansas but no one is trying to live there so what good is it?