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It is generally accepted by people with far more intelligence and knowledge than myself (including one Scott Ritter) that Iran’s attack on Israel, which was carefully planned to minimise civilian casualties deliberately and used minimal amounts of their latest weapons technology, was in fact an Iran “win” by way of identifying Israel’s weaknesses, one such weakness being that they are supremely reliant on the USA, Britain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia all playing ball with their own militaries.

I personally don’t put much stock in the pro Israel line where the warfare is concerned - it is quite obvious Iran’s attack was to strength test Israel’s defences and get appropriate intelligence.

It's pretty obvious to anyone with basic knowledge in geopolitical military strength that Iran isn't able to walk an invasion force across Iraq, Syria, and Jordan to do anything of note. Firing random rockets isn't going to break a nation with possibly the strongest anti-missile defense on the planet especially when "opponents" of Israel like Jordan and Saudi Arabia assisted with shooting down those rockets.

Calling Iran's attack a "win" is a stretch lol.
 
It's pretty obvious to anyone with basic knowledge in geopolitical military strength that Iran isn't able to walk an invasion force across Iraq, Syria, and Jordan to do anything of note. Firing random rockets isn't going to break a nation with possibly the strongest anti-missile defense on the planet especially when "opponents" of Israel like Jordan and Saudi Arabia assisted with shooting down those rockets.

Calling Iran's attack a "win" is a stretch lol.
We’re going to have to agree to disagree on that one. I think it’s pretty clear that Iron Dome has some flaws (putting my engineer’s hat firmly on).
 
We’re going to have to agree to disagree on that one. I think it’s pretty clear that Iron Dome has some flaws (putting my engineer’s hat firmly on).

No I think you are objectively wrong. Iran sent 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Almost all of them were shot down by American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces followed by Israeli defenses.

The Iron Dome isn't used to shoot down long range drones / missiles, Arrow 3 and David's Sling are so please take that engineers hat off and never put it on again.
 
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I've got a question for you (or anyone is this thread). A genuine question because I'm curious what people here think.

Where do you realistically see the state of the West Bank and Gaza in the next year, or next 5 years? Maybe 10?
I'm a cynic and think that Israel is full on accelarating the genocide of Palestinians and the US don't care at all about it and will continue funding it. But things can change fast, before the October 7th attack, the Abraham Accords were thought as the new paradigm in the Middle East, but now the Saudis say that they won't normalize relations with Israel unless there is a Palestinian state (of course we don't know if they will keep this promise).

But I will continue advocating for Palestinians liberation. Apartheid in South Africa ended because people kept fighting against it.
 
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-politics-thread.3743029/post-10275491 "glad" to see mrhands explicitly admitting that anything that might endanger the existence of the zionist state is her "most pessimistic scenario", now we can stop engaging in acrobatics about what she did or didnt really mean every time we want to criticize her for "appearing to" defend or promote imperialist violence

i think this 'convo' of speculating about the material conditions of palestine in 10 years is a lil absurd, especially from people not living there. us imperialism is not permanent or undefeatable. political scientists or other imperialist "experts" did not predict the success of the october 7 prisonbreak, nor did any "experts" predict the successful siege on the third precinct in minneapolis in 2020. obv these are relatively small scale and not at all comparable to the end of the zionist entiry but nothing is inevitable, us imperialism cant anticipate every threat and the threats only grow, it is in many ways stretched thin by its efforts to impose itself on every corner of the world. geopolitical analysis cant predict everything.
 
~ the un statement u linked here is a request for cooperation from the zionist entity to conduct a full investigation into potential acts of sexual violence on october 7, based on a preliminary report. if you actually look at the report (which is linked on the webpage u posted), you will see for example item 48, "there was a lack of access to first-hand testimonies of survivors/victims of sexual violence. while the number of survivors/victims remains unknown... the mission team was not able to interview any of these survivors/victims."
[since the zionist entity p much never cooperates with any un request to anything, it is unlikely that the un's request to investigate further would ever be granted.]
the claims about "dozens" of survivors/victims of sexual assault on oct 7 are clearly taken from the bogus "reporting" by the nytimes and other amerikan media. when the nytimes hires a white nationalist who has zero journalism experience to do a story on supposed widespread sexual violence on october 7, and when this "reporting" is then circulated and repeated all over the amerikan media, this needs to be called out for the bullshit propoganda that it is.

as i said, we all live in a world that normalizes gender violence, and no organization is immune to being influenced by that. eg, anyone who has been around certain sections of "the left" has probably encountered someone talking about an SL policy to execute members of its army found to have committed an act of sexual assault. i do not have historical knowledge abt that but the normalization of gender violence is a reality that every org faces everywhere, and a situation where hostages are taken presents greater opportunity for sexual violence.
at the same time, every indication suggests that to whatever extent some ppl did sexually assault israeli settlers on oct 7, it does not come anywhere close to the systematic abuse torture and rape of palestinian political prisoners by israeli pigs, see eg https://www.btselem.org/publications/202408_welcome_to_hell
this is not to say that any instances of sexual violence on oct 7 dont matter, but it is important to contextualize the forces involved. patriarchy is everywhere and the normalization of gender violence is something we all have to deal with, but hamas is not the source of that normalization. there is zero indication that sexual violence was a 'primary characteristic' of the october 7 prison break, but it unambiguously is a primary characteristic of israeli pigs' treatment of palestinian political prisoners.


~ we do not have sufficient access to the facts to be able to evaluate the strategies or tactics of the october 7 prisonbreak. i mean one could take a pure pacifist position and j say all violence is "wrong" in any situation and palestinians "should" just lay down and allow themselves and each other to be wiped off the earth, but this sort of moralization is obv inherently removed from the actual material situation, and it also comes from a specific class position ie that it is not you, your family and your people who are facing genocide. no one is treating deaths or hostage taking as something to drink champagne over but it is not possible to resist a genocide with no casualties. in the words of fanon, "National liberation, national renaissance, the restoration of nationhood to the people, commonwealth: whatever may be the headings used or the new formulas introduced, decolonization is always a violent phenomenon".
hostages werent taken on october 7 for no reason just to take pleasure in violence, it was (presumably) a tactical choice eg aiming to make a prisoner swap for at least some portion of the thousands of palestinian political prisoners who are tortured and raped on a daily basis. also perhaps hoping that it would place some limitations on the military retaliation by the zionist entity since even if the settler society does not as a whole give two shits about palestinian genocide, there is concern from the families of the hostages and so on. to be clear im j listing these as examples of tactical considerations in relation to your 'objection' to taking hostages. whether a prisoner swap could in fact have been on the table, whether the presence of hostages would actually limit the genocidal retaliation in any way, any future prediction is always somewhat speculative and its even more absurdly speculative for us to talk about from thousands of miles away. but for us to be taking positions on what tactical and strategic options we think were and werent available and dictating what this or that portion of a prisonbreak should or shouldnt have done, in a context where journalists are effectively banned from gaza like, we are j in no place to make any of these sorts of evaluations.
also even if we were in a position to evaluate any such thing it literally means nothing because we have no influence on the strategies/tactics of the palestinian resistance, its just posturing and presenting ourselves as the "moral high ground" or whatever. what we do have (some) influence over is 1 our own governments providing the weapons for the palestinian genocide etc 2 the ideological side, 'the discourse' etc and 3 how palestinians, arabs and muslims are treated within our own societies (including on smogon).

and tbc i can 'agree' (but my opinion means nothing) that there is some 'validity' to "ethics of war" type issues, and for example criticism of the orientation of "total war" employed by european nations in wwi and wwii & was then carried further in the genocides in korea vietnam cambodia committed by the us imperialist army. but, the particular boundaries of "war ethics" type issues cant rly be determined externally, only the palestinian resistance is in a position to meaningfully evaluate if there are certain tactics that 'cross a line' or etc. maybe u think thats problematic bc then no one can "hold them accountable" or w e but in reality thats true regardless, euroamerikans moral posturing and giving platitudes about war ethics does nothing other than propogate a fantasy world in which white humanist moral philosophy and UN reports and declarations are determinative factors in the palestinian genocide and/or in the resistance to that genocide.

I don't 100% disagree with most of your post. However, I do want to point out that the following sentence contradicts itself.

and tbc i can 'agree' (but my opinion means nothing) that there is some 'validity' to "ethics of war" type issues, and for example criticism of the orientation of "total war" employed by european nations in wwi and wwii & was then carried further in the genocides in korea vietnam cambodia committed by the us imperialist army. but, the particular boundaries of "war ethics" type issues cant rly be determined externally, only the palestinian resistance is in a position to meaningfully evaluate if there are certain tactics that 'cross a line' or etc.

If "ethics of war" issues can't be determined externally, then we are in no position to criticise the European nations for their actions in WWI and WII, since we are not 'in their shoes' so to speak. If we can't criticise Hamas because we aren't on the ground in Palestine with them and have access to exactly the same intel that they do, then we also can't criticise the actions of any other nation in wartime throughout history because we weren't there with them and don't have access to the exact same information they did either. You can't have one but not the other; if we can criticise the actions of various nations in wartime throughout history, which you agree with, then we can also criticise the actions of Hamas on October 7th.

To be honest, I think that the 'we can't criticise Hamas' position espoused by yourself and others in this thread is not actually something any of you truly believe. I think this claim is arising from the fact that deep down, you guys actually believe that Hamas was right, or at the very least justified, in doing what they did on October 7th. The claim that we can't criticise them is just an excuse to either (consciously) avoid having to publicly state that you support their actions on October 7th, or (subconsciously) to try and justify to yourself that you are correct in your belief that what Hamas did that day was ok. If I am right, and you do genuinely believe that what Hamas did on October 7th was justified or right, then by all means, state that here so that the rest of us can debate you on the fact. But please don't continue to hide behind the facade of "we can't criticise Hamas or determine what they did was right or wrong, actually".

EDIT:
I'm definitely cynical about the situation in Palestine. I'd love to see either an equitable two-state solution or a democratic one-state solution come about, reparations paid to Palestinians affected by the conflict and the decades of subjugation that came before it, and a dismantling of the Israeli settler-colonial project. I'm not naive enough to believe it will actually happen.

Best case scenario, pressure from leftists and student protests forces liberal western governments to stop or at least reassess continuing to arm Israel. Israel is forced to withdraw from Gaza and the West Bank, but total withholding of all arms is extremely unlikely and the Israeli government has displayed no desire for lasting peace outside of the total elimination of the Palestinian identity, so the Israeli settler-colonial project doesn't really go anywhere. No reparations are made beyond at best some humanitarian assistence to Palestine to help them 'rebuild', and likely not even that from the U.S. Things simply simmer down to the usual status quo of subjugation and oppression for a while until something else happens that causes them to boil over a gain and we wash, rinse, repeat. Thousands of Palestinians are already dead and economic damage to Gaza is incalculable, so it might already be too late. The powder keg might already be lit.

Somewhere in the middle, western governments, especially the U.S. continue their current charade of perhaps waving a disapproving finger at the Israeli state when they do something particularly horrific while continuing to supply them with weapons of all kinds. Israel continues its ethnic cleansing, almost certainly killing or displacing the remaining population of Gaza, and then establishes Israeli settlements on the ruins. At best, as essentially a PR stunt, some Palestinians may be allowed to live under the iron fist of full Israeli occupation as second-class citizens, much as many do in Israeli territory already. Whether that cleansing extends in full force to the West Bank remains to be seen, but if they don't face any serious consequences for their actions in Gaza, why wouldn't they move into the West Bank as well? There might be some continued escalation between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah but no full-scale conflict arises out of it; they understand the threat of Big Swingin' Dick America getting involved and the disastrous consequences all around.

Nightmare scenario, Israel continues to receive military aid, succeeds in its ethnic cleansing of Palestine, and the consequences thereof lead to escalating conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah until a full-scale war breaks out. Israel doesn't have the capacity to launch a full-scale invasion of Iran; they don't really even have the capacity to invade Lebanon. If such a conflict seems imminent, the U.S. has essentially three choices. Let Iran and Hezbollah wipe Israel off the map, or at the very least let Israel suffer through a bloody and costly war that at best ends in a Pyrrhic victory right after showering the American public with affirmations that Israel has the right to defend itself and America will always stand by them; negotiate a peace deal between a state it sees as a staunch ally and groups it sees as either rogue states or terrorist organizations (not something America has historically been very good at); or military intervention on behalf of Israel. I don't think I need to tell you which one of those is most likely.

I don't know much about the geography and military capacity of Lebanon. I do know that more than half of Iran is covered by high mountain ranges littered with bunkers and tunnel networks. An invasion of Iran would be exponentially more costly than the invasion of Iraq or the occupation of Afghanistan, both in terms of monetary losses and human life. I'm not under any illusion that Iran would ultimately win against the full might of the American empire, but they can certainly jack up the price of victory, and that's to say nothing of possible Chinese involvement by proxy. Even as we seek to weaken Chinese global influence, they no doubt would love an opportunity to weaken ours. I don't think an invasion of Iran would lead to open conflict with China, but I also don't think they would pass up the opportunity to arm Iran, or to take advantage of such a conflict to further erode America's already (justifiably) deteriorating global image.

I don't see a realistic "good outcome", but I also don't see why that means I should advocate for a bad one. I'm going to keep advocating with what little voice I have for sanctions on Israel, equal rights to be granted to Palestine, and reparations for the damage caused by the apartheid system Israel perpetrated against Palestinians, because at the end of the day, maybe I'm wrong, and maybe there is hope.
My hope is the next time Israeli elections come around, Netanyahu gets kicked out of parliament and is replaced by someone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. There is some hope; Yitzhak Rabin did sign the Oslo Accords after all.
 
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I don't 100% disagree with most of your post. However, I do want to point out that the following sentence contradicts itself.



If "ethics of war" issues can't be determined externally, then we are in no position to criticise the European nations for their actions in WWI and WII, since we are not 'in their shoes' so to speak. If we can't criticise Hamas because we aren't on the ground in Palestine with them and have access to exactly the same intel that they do, then we also can't criticise the actions of any other nation in wartime throughout history because we weren't there with them and don't have access to the exact same information they did either. You can't have one but not the other; if we can criticise the actions of various nations in wartime throughout history, which you agree with, then we can also criticise the actions of Hamas on October 7th.

To be honest, I think that the 'we can't criticise Hamas' position espoused by yourself and others in this thread is not actually something any of you truly believe. I think this claim is arising from the fact that deep down, you guys actually believe that Hamas was right, or at the very least justified, in doing what they did on October 7th. The claim that we can't criticise them is just an excuse to either (consciously) avoid having to publicly state that you support their actions on October 7th, or (subconsciously) to try and justify to yourself that you are correct in your belief that what Hamas did that day was ok. If I am right, and you do genuinely believe that what Hamas did on October 7th was justified or right, then by all means, state that here so that the rest of us can debate you on the fact. But please don't continue to hide behind the facade of "we can't criticise Hamas or determine what they did was right or wrong, actually".

EDIT:

My hope is the next time Israeli elections come around, Netanyahu gets kicked out of parliament and is replaced by someone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. There is some hope; Yitzhak Rabin did sign the Oslo Accords after all.

People have to dance around these things because explicitly saying you agree with anything Hamas or even Palestinians at large do or say is a good way to get banned off the site, harassed, doxxed, or worse. That said, fuck it:

The only acceptable solution is a one-state Palestine and the complete dissolution of the zionist genocidal ethnostate, and yes, October 7th was justified. My hope is that there are no "next Isr*eli elections" because every settler is kicked the fuck out and that all of the people expelled in the Nakba and their descendants are welcomed back.

Everyone can now go ahead and bad-faith nitpick me and say I support insert-bad-thing here, but yeah I think people living in a concentration camp and being murdered and raped and bombed daily are absolutely justified in breaking out of their prison, taking prisoners to exchange for getting their families out of the literal rape and torture camps, shooting back at their captors and murderers, and trying to liberate themselves. I also think it is very fucking easy to understand the human motivation for revenge when you, your parents, and your parents' parents' entire lives have consisted of life in a concentration camp with barely enough resources to survive, watching everyone you care for die or be taken away to a torture/rape camp never to be seen again, all for the "crime" of being born under occupation.

If you disagree with that I think you are inhumane or naive - I would genuinely like to know what kind of resistance the people who keep saying "I support Palestine but don't agree with any of the things Palestinians actually do to try to free themselves" think is effective and morally righteous. It's genuinely incomprehensible to me how much time people will spend arguing that settler-colonizers do no violence and should be untouchable while their very presence is a form of violence, while they happily engage in the activities required to uphold the genocidal ethnostate (such as joining the IOF, even if it's compulsory you can refuse and sit in a cushy cell for a few months instead, for one example) and even as the vast majority of them engage in other forms of violence beyond those mandated just to maintain their genocidal ethnostate. Even those who agree that Palestinian civilians don't deserve death continue to tut-tut at anything that would actually keep them alive - these high-level political ideas like a ceasefire do not end the genocide, they quiet it. As soon as the fighting ends, the zionist entity returns to its previous policy of simply starving out the remaining Palestinians while quietly arming settlers to invade their land further and looking the other way, as well as fabricating provocations to drop bombs and shoot more children in the head. There will be no end to the violence until the settlers are expelled or completely stripped of power.

Also, your comparison betrays the flaws in your outlook. Comparing the wars of white imperial powers to resistance to settler-colonialism and genocide is ridiculous and a misinterpretation of juoean's very obvious point that you do not know what it is like to live under settler-colonial occupation and genocide nor have even the slightest sense of the material conditions they are operating under, not "you are not literally physically there and do not have perfect information therefore you cannot criticize anything you did not directly experience."

I'm going to throw something of an asterisk on the "October 7th was justified" here to preempt the really obvious attempts to bad faith it and/or get me banned for that statement that would otherwise come. This does not mean I endorse every single individual action that happened on that day, but I absolutely fucking will not denounce Palestinian resistance because they aren't perfect victims who have never caused harm to a single undeserving person ever. The premise of breaking out, taking hostages, and fighting IOF forces was absolutely morally unimpeachable, and the reality is that taking hostages is the single thing they can do to free hostages taken by the IOF short of assaulting the prisons themselves, which I think we can agree is a much more difficult task. If you want to pearl-clutch about it that's your prerogative.

"At the level of individuals, violence is a cleansing force. It frees the native from his inferiority complex and from his despair and inaction; it makes him fearless and restores his self-respect... Illuminated by violence, the consciousness of the people rebels against any pacification." - Frantz Fanon, The Wretched of the Earth (a book every single person who wants to comment on settler-colonialism should be forced to read before they can spew meaningless drivel online)
 
I don't 100% disagree with most of your post. However, I do want to point out that the following sentence contradicts itself.



If "ethics of war" issues can't be determined externally, then we are in no position to criticise the European nations for their actions in WWI and WII, since we are not 'in their shoes' so to speak. If we can't criticise Hamas because we aren't on the ground in Palestine with them and have access to exactly the same intel that they do, then we also can't criticise the actions of any other nation in wartime throughout history because we weren't there with them and don't have access to the exact same information they did either. You can't have one but not the other; if we can criticise the actions of various nations in wartime throughout history, which you agree with, then we can also criticise the actions of Hamas on October 7th.

To be honest, I think that the 'we can't criticise Hamas' position espoused by yourself and others in this thread is not actually something any of you truly believe. I think this claim is arising from the fact that deep down, you guys actually believe that Hamas was right, or at the very least justified, in doing what they did on October 7th. The claim that we can't criticise them is just an excuse to either (consciously) avoid having to publicly state that you support their actions on October 7th, or (subconsciously) to try and justify to yourself that you are correct in your belief that what Hamas did that day was ok. If I am right, and you do genuinely believe that what Hamas did on October 7th was justified or right, then by all means, state that here so that the rest of us can debate you on the fact. But please don't continue to hide behind the facade of "we can't criticise Hamas or determine what they did was right or wrong, actually".

EDIT:

My hope is the next time Israeli elections come around, Netanyahu gets kicked out of parliament and is replaced by someone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. There is some hope; Yitzhak Rabin did sign the Oslo Accords after all.


Netanyahu's replacements while not as bad as him, will continue the horrible conditions in Palestine. Israeli's in charge do not have any interest to be sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and do not have any pressure from a pro-genocidal public. Hoping that there will be a democratic method within Israel to stop the genocide, stop the blockade, stop the apartheid or whatever is delusional. The only method is either through the Israeli state being toppled violently or through international pressure that seems elusive at this time. To say my view of Hamas. I am openly and will always be sympathetic to the cause of Hamas but do not support many of their actions. I do not place the blame of a resistance army fighting back against a violent colonial state on the people being colonized but the colonizers. This is not Hamas exclusive but stands to reason with any similar group. To use one you might be sympathetic too to nail this home. I and most liberals support the ANC during apartheid South Africa. Does that mean I have to support their terroristic acts led by Mandela? No. I can support the group and its aims while also disavowing many of its views and actions as i do with Hamas. My main Question to you is this though. Without Hamas, who fights for Palestine. Israel does not. The west does not. The other Arab countries do not. Fatah does not. Hamas is fighting against the genocide of its own people, so while i disagree with Hamas political views about almost everything and disagree with their civilian targeting, I support them in their fight against Israel. Also on final point, I think it is very interesting how we expect Palestinians to be perfect victims while Israel is committing a holocaust against them. I doubt any person here would argue the Jewish Partisans during Nazi Rule should not be supported despite them targeting civilians, But this never gets applied to Palestinians like it does for a lot of things it normally does like the aforementioned Partisans, ANC, or Slave revolts to name a few all of which I also support.
 
I don't 100% disagree with most of your post. However, I do want to point out that the following sentence contradicts itself.



If "ethics of war" issues can't be determined externally, then we are in no position to criticise the European nations for their actions in WWI and WII, since we are not 'in their shoes' so to speak. If we can't criticise Hamas because we aren't on the ground in Palestine with them and have access to exactly the same intel that they do, then we also can't criticise the actions of any other nation in wartime throughout history because we weren't there with them and don't have access to the exact same information they did either. You can't have one but not the other; if we can criticise the actions of various nations in wartime throughout history, which you agree with, then we can also criticise the actions of Hamas on October 7th.

To be honest, I think that the 'we can't criticise Hamas' position espoused by yourself and others in this thread is not actually something any of you truly believe. I think this claim is arising from the fact that deep down, you guys actually believe that Hamas was right, or at the very least justified, in doing what they did on October 7th. The claim that we can't criticise them is just an excuse to either (consciously) avoid having to publicly state that you support their actions on October 7th, or (subconsciously) to try and justify to yourself that you are correct in your belief that what Hamas did that day was ok. If I am right, and you do genuinely believe that what Hamas did on October 7th was justified or right, then by all means, state that here so that the rest of us can debate you on the fact. But please don't continue to hide behind the facade of "we can't criticise Hamas or determine what they did was right or wrong, actually".

EDIT:

My hope is the next time Israeli elections come around, Netanyahu gets kicked out of parliament and is replaced by someone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. There is some hope; Yitzhak Rabin did sign the Oslo Accords after all.
(edit i didnt see sabelette had just posted a lil ago, obv theres a lot of overlap etc but im going to leave this post here anyway, also ppl might find it 'interesting' ways our posts perhaps approach things in different ways but end with v similar 'conclusions')

i was talking about "total war" as a concept or ideology in general, and mentioned wwi bc that is where people generally attribute total war to (idek if that attribution is accurate).
i have no interest in wasting time investigating much less criticizing 'tactical choices' of an inter-imperialist war. i see no need, interest or reason for doing so, every party to wwi was a far right imperialist state and u may view this as callous but it is j of no interest to me outside of ways in which it changed the material conditions for colonies and semi-colonies struggling for liberation or in enabling the conditions of the russian revolution.
and talking about "war ethics" in wwi seems very nonsensical to me, every major party to wwi, and p much every high level military official from those states, was responsible for multiple genocides long before the war began. any "ethical principles" that could have influenced any of these parties are meaningless bc they are "ethics" that collaborate with genocide.

but putting aside the nonsense of suggesting that there are any meaningful "ethical principles" in an inter-imperialist war, yea analyzing 'war ethics' stuff in a historical context is presumably significantly different, like any other historical analysis it is dependent on what sources etc u can access / how compromised the records may be (typically by the victorious party), but to the extent u have the information to analyze such then idk why it couldnt be a part of the historical analysis.
what we were talking about was analyzing 'war ethics' in the present, in a context where we clearly do not have a sufficient basis of knowledge for doing so.

the secondary point i was making, which i prob did not articulate clearly, is that from my pov, the only sense in which "war ethics" could be meaningful are when it comes to political practice, ie for people who are actually engaged in a given liberation struggle, not as some sort of abstract question of humanist philosophy. trying to establish 'philosophically' some "generalized set of rules" abt 'war ethics' makes zero sense to me bc it is inherently a question of practice. but also this is very secondary idt it rly bears much on the convo or even whether what im writing abt it has any meaning.

~ i do not in any way shy away from defending 'in general' the right of palestinians to resist by whatever means necessary, i think ive always made that v clear. what i will not engage in, because it would be meaningless for me to do so, is "debating" about one section of palestinian resistance as compared to another, stuff like what boo posted repeatedly early on in this thread about certain organizations in palestine shifting their orientations toward working with hamas, and that according to boo any organization that made such a shift rendered themselves "irrelevant". it is ridiculous for any of us to engage in this sort of factional commentary, and that is ultimately what these nonsensical "debates about hamas" all amount to. liberals who want to pretend that there are some hypothetical conditions under which they actually would defend palestinian resistance, but when it comes to actual acts of resistance believe that it is our place to dictate factions or strategies or tactics. it reminds me of white liberals within the so called us propagandizing about how "looting" or "rioting" or whatever else 'invalidates' blm protests, as if anyone who is not a participant gets to place demands and judgments on those fighting for their liberation; but this is maybe even more absurd bc of the 'level' the palestinian liberation struggle is at. the only source of knowledge is experience, it is thoroughly absurd for us to pretend like we have any real understanding of the material conditions of palestinian armed struggle, any 'opinions' we have about factions strategies tactics are talking nonsense because they constitute speaking without even the most basic level of factual knowledge.
 
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To be honest, I think that the 'we can't criticise Hamas' position espoused by yourself and others in this thread is not actually something any of you truly believe. I think this claim is arising from the fact that deep down, you guys actually believe that Hamas was right, or at the very least justified, in doing what they did on October 7th. The claim that we can't criticise them is just an excuse to either (consciously) avoid having to publicly state that you support their actions on October 7th, or (subconsciously) to try and justify to yourself that you are correct in your belief that what Hamas did that day was ok. If I am right, and you do genuinely believe that what Hamas did on October 7th was justified or right, then by all means, state that here so that the rest of us can debate you on the fact. But please don't continue to hide behind the facade of "we can't criticise Hamas or determine what they did was right or wrong, actually".
One can criticize Hamas however they want, but they have to recognize that unless their solution is genocide, Hamas will have to be called to the negotiation table not only for ceasefire talks but for Palestinian statehood.
 
No I think you are objectively wrong. Iran sent 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Almost all of them were shot down by American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces followed by Israeli defenses.

You don’t seem to know how strategy works:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/0...ure-many-claim-it-has-ended-israels-isolation

Had Iran’s intent been to hurt Israel, it wouldn’t have violated a core principle of military operations – the element of surprise. But it did. It telegraphed its intentions to Washington and several Arab and European capitals, and assured them that its strike would be relatively limited.

Instead of employing offensive tactics that would have significantly challenged and possibly overwhelmed Israeli defences, it did the opposite. Indeed, had Iran sought to inflict serious pain on Israel, it would have incorporated a heavier dose of fast-flying and precision-guided ballistic missiles, giving Israel very little time to prepare and respond.

It also would have integrated the significant combat power of its regional proxies – especially the capable Hezbollah – into its operation, turning this into a real multi-front conflict and a nightmare for Israel.

Additionally, this was a highly useful information-gathering exercise for Iran. Though hardly definitive, Iran’s assessment of Israeli and partner defences has much improved. In a potential war of attrition with Israel, which Iran would seek, such information and assessments will be invaluable.

So, when judged solely by its strategic goal from Iran’s perspective – to bolster Iranian deterrence and attempt to rewrite the rules of engagement with Israel – Iran’s attack was largely successful. Iran showcased more capability in its attack than its detractors would like to admit.

If you can’t see that, then the problem is on your side. Ignore Iran’s strategies and intelligence gathering operations at your peril.

The Iron Dome isn't used to shoot down long range drones / missiles, Arrow 3 and David's Sling are
I am well aware, Iron Dome is the one I have most information on, hence my views.

so please take that engineers hat off and never put it on again.

This is a really bad faith part of your discussion. I’m definitely better qualified than you are to discuss it, particularly if you haven’t done the reading and have nothing to cite to back your points up.
 
I've got a question for you (or anyone is this thread). A genuine question because I'm curious what people here think.

Where do you realistically see the state of the West Bank and Gaza in the next year, or next 5 years? Maybe 10?

I also only think a 1 state solution can happen, almost inevitably. 2nd Palestinian state is physically unviable and “2 state solution” couldn’t become anything different from essentially the same as pre-Oct 7 state.

3 potential outcomes:

Option 1 (The best): A single Democratic state for all peoples in the region, also giving displaced Palestinians right of return. Ideally some reparations as well.

Option 2 (Mid): The above, but no right of return, and “soft” policies ensuring an Israeli majority (or continuation of the genocide long enough to ensure if)

Option 3 (Worst): A single Israeli ethnostate resulting from the completion of ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians.

I’m going to go ahead and say that an option of “complete return,” of the result being a Palestinian Ethnostate is both impossible and not a result I’d support any more than option 3.

That said, I think it’s volatile enough that any of the above 3 are possibilities— and it really does hinge on which one the USA ultimately decides, either through its action or inaction. It’s only the US (and possibly the Israeli citizenry/protestors? Big question mark) that have any power+plausible motivation in the world to stop option 3 from being the inevitability.
 
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We have parliament elections next sunday in Austria

Far right party FPÖ and conservative (currently governing) party ÖVP are pretty close in surveys

I voted social democrat last couple of years but idk man, they are unable to govern and unable to organize themselves. Greens are very opportunistic but they are reliable in ecological and infrastructural issues, so I think I'll vote for them. KPÖ (commies) have some very legitimate points but I cannot support a party that's paid by Russia

Migration is a big point and having served my civic service duty in a refugee home, I'd say it's a legal problem mostly. The current laws about migration feel like they're specifically designed to frustate people and to make society as unsafe as possible. Right of residence can be taken away by authorities without justification and it categorically affects exclusively immigrants that are trying to fit in, as ones in legal troubles are protected from deportations. There needs to be a reform that enables active students, workers, people with good scoring on language tests... a stable right to remain and for people without longterm statuses that are caught in violent crimes to be deported

Right wing parties don't want to touch this as they're reliant on crimes by immigrants to ensure their existence. SPÖ are waaaaay to incompetent to find solutions. I can imagine the Greens to maybe tackle this as the current secretary of law is the smartest person in our gov and they aren't reliant on immigration

Beyond that, infrastructure is pretty important to me and I can see the Greens taking care of that. We need to upkeep that, I don't want my country to end up like Germany. Education is very important too but no one has anything in that direction so idk man

I am honestly not that afraid of the far right in this scenario. It's a party of alcoholics without impulse control. They never managed to stay in gov for longer than 2-3 years and always failed to get their ideas executed (mostly because they lack understanding of the process and don't know how to work within the confines of our constitution but oh well). Our president is also pretty reasonable and is willing to break apart the gov if something too radical comes up. So yeah let's see
Thank you for sharing. It is amazing seeing the parallels. Sounds like this far right wing crack pot movement is a global cancer that must be eradicated. They have no business being anywhere near government.
 
Thank you for sharing. It is amazing seeing the parallels. Sounds like this far right wing crack pot movement is a global cancer that must be eradicated. They have no business being anywhere near government.
This is scarily accurate. Europe on the whole would appear to have a number of concerning trends, from the race fueled violence in the UK like what last month or whatever, France refusing to make the PM from the winning coalition left party as the votes would imply, the above about Austria, etc.
 
I think it's a bit different in our case because other far right parties across Europe are often relatively recent, whilst the FPÖ has been founded directly after the second word war by former nazis

A big reason for why far right parties in Europe exist is that the responsibility for crimes during the 30s and 40s were exclusively pinned on Germany. Austria depicted itself as the first victim of Nazi Germany until the Waldheim Affair (if you don't know Kurt Waldheim, you should really look him up, a very fascinating and gross example of a perfect opportunist). Croatia's crimes in the balkans are completely ignored, the Ustasha hand sign is still in daily use by high ranked politcians and graves of war criminals are pilgrimage spots for nationalists. Poland illegalized statements regarding their involvement. Italy, despite being the origin of facism, takes no responsibility and depicts Mussolini as a capable leader to this day. Switzerland's still rolling in the cash they made during this period.

A good chunk of Europe was involved in the crimes that were committed, and history books were written in a way to avoid any kind of responsibility. That this ideology persisted and came back is no surprise
 
This is scarily accurate. Europe on the whole would appear to have a number of concerning trends, from the race fueled violence in the UK like what last month or whatever, France refusing to make the PM from the winning coalition left party as the votes would imply, the above about Austria, etc.
Does anyone have any theories as to how to make people less susceptible to these right-wing crackpots?

One thing I’ve notice they have in common is extreme incompetence. Even if one is drawn to the brand of hatred and rhetoric, what makes people gravitate to such extreme level of incompetence? It’s one thing to want to grab a beer with a figure like Trump (for whatever reason). It’s another to say I want this deranged fuck in command of the US government and military.
 
This is scarily accurate. Europe on the whole would appear to have a number of concerning trends, from the race fueled violence in the UK like what last month or whatever, France refusing to make the PM from the winning coalition left party as the votes would imply, the above about Austria, etc.
Point of info though: the UK riots were based on a racist dog whistle claiming someone who killed two girls was a Muslim.

In actuality, a Christian.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/far-right-riots-erupt-uk-wake-child-murders-rcna165046

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c...udakubana, from Banks,no known links to Islam.

So basically far right propagandists used social media (successfully) to stir up racial hatred and incite horrific violence.

And the UK police and local citizens came out on mass and did what they could to shield the victims of violence.

So it is up to the government to take out the main culprits behind the lies - Tommy Robinson, Nigel Farage, Elon Musk and more.
 
Point of info though: the UK riots were based on a racist dog whistle claiming someone who killed two girls was a Muslim.

In actuality, a Christian.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/far-right-riots-erupt-uk-wake-child-murders-rcna165046

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jll8r9w8ko#:~:text=Axel Muganwa Rudakubana, from Banks,no known links to Islam.

So basically far right propagandists used social media (successfully) to stir up racial hatred and incite horrific violence.

And the UK police and local citizens came out on mass and did what they could to shield the victims of violence.

So it is up to the government to take out the main culprits behind the lies - Tommy Robinson, Nigel Farage, Elon Musk and more.
As much as I appreciate the sourcing, I don't think its news to much of us that this outrage is almost all manufactured through disinformation online. I wouldn't be surprised if Vance doing his grift with the Haitians was a direct attempt to cause violence like that of the UK.

Slightly piggybacking on Raikou, I think this Dem show of "unity" may be less scary than us Leftist Cabal members think. I don't see Kamala giving policy consessions to these Republicans that have endorsed her, and those that have are basically the emblematic members of a Never Trump squad and some guy who while evil, basically only holds clout colloquially as a "moderate Republican." More consessions than the border already has been, I mean. But still, I think Democrats are seeing that ~42% of the country minimum will vote for Trump even after everything that's happened in the past year alone, and see they have to do some kind of strategic mixup. I basically see them playing hardball on the Culture War. The right will continue to call every left some insane Communist and continue to post epic blue hair and pronouns OWNED CRYING due to FACTS AND LOGIC, so for the first time on a national scale that I've seen, Dems are fighting fire with fire. Even if it feels small, this is the goal of the "weird" thing. They picked some guy who is about as "American dude" as you could pick out, and had him call out the current brand of extremism, which made even 2016 look milquetoast, as extreme and frankly odd. Republicans, somehow, don't see this shift and double down and do weirder and weirder shit and peddle more and more outrageously demonstrably false lies. The immigrant thing isn't a dogwhistle anymore to court the far right; Trump is saying on the presidential debate that the immigrants are eating the dogs. I'm really hoping that this strategy is more an attempt to redefine their "radical leftist agenda" as the not far from center social spending it is and an attempt to court the, on average, less educated Republican culturally and with the truth of their policies, rather than offering consessions.

I realize this may have seen like yappage and cope, but I feel like Dems are realizing "oh my god over 40% of this country is a solid block despite their leaders saying immigrants are eating dogs and cats" and that a more aggressive approach in combating dis and misinformation is needed than sort of quietly going "no um sir actually thats not true erm..."
 
As much as I appreciate the sourcing, I don't think its news to much of us that this outrage is almost all manufactured through disinformation online. I wouldn't be surprised if Vance doing his grift with the Haitians was a direct attempt to cause violence like that of the UK.

I personally did think he was attempting something similar.
 

Current polls suggest this.
1726962982258.png


The Dems could lose NV and still win. They are 1.4% ahead in NV.

North Carolina and AZ are functionally tied. Republicans are ahead by about 0.5% but they have been swinging back and forth.

Maine District 2 is Republican by just 1%. I'm not sure if there are any electoral combinations where this matters.

Georgia has been flipping back and forth but currently the Republicans have a solid lead.

PA is Blue by about 2%, as are the remaining swing states (or better). Assuming the Democrats get PA they could lose basically every other swing state and still win.

tl;dr the Democrats are favored. But as RaikouLover will enthusiastically say, the polls aren't perfect. A lot of analysis show the Democrats absolutely clapping Trump's cheeks with 300-320 E-votes. But then we all have PTSD from 2016 so...
 
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Current polls suggest this.
View attachment 671091

The Dems could lose NV and still win. They are 1.4% ahead in NV.

North Carolina and AZ are functionally tied. Republicans are ahead by about 0.5% but they have been swinging back and forth.

Maine District 2 is Republican by just 1%.

Georgia has been flipping back and forth but currently the Republicans have a solid lead.

PA is Blue by about 2%, as are the remaining swing states (or better). Assuming the Democrats get PA they could lose basically every other swing state and still win.

tl;dr the Democrats are favored. But as RaikouLover will enthusiastically say, the polls aren't perfect. A lot of analysis show the Democrats absolutely clapping Trump's cheeks with 300-320 E-votes. But then we all have PTSD from 2016 so...
Pennsylvania really is the most important, for sure. I do wonder if Robinson could hurt NC wholesale in a race as close as it is, and would be more inclined to think optimistically we could see AZ and NC blue, Georgia hard to tell with GOP fuckery.

More interesting to me is the two Senate races which were seen as non starters until recently. Picking up Rick Scott and Ted Cruz's seats are probably the two biggest offense moves that Dems can do, while simultaneously dumping stupid amounts of money into that once D thats losing in what Montana or something?
 
Pennsylvania really is the most important, for sure. I do wonder if Robinson could hurt NC wholesale in a race as close as it is, and would be more inclined to think optimistically we could see AZ and NC blue, Georgia hard to tell with GOP fuckery.

More interesting to me is the two Senate races which were seen as non starters until recently. Picking up Rick Scott and Ted Cruz's seats are probably the two biggest offense moves that Dems can do, while simultaneously dumping stupid amounts of money into that once D thats losing in what Montana or something?
Yeah NC is 0.5+ R on 270 but 0.2+ R on 538, both of which are statistical ties. The Democrats have a lot of paths to victory. They could lose PA but win either Georgia or NC and still win. The Republicans have to win basically every swing state.

Edit: the stupid keys guy is also convinced Harris will win so that's something I guess.
 
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tl;dr the Democrats are favored. But as RaikouLover will enthusiastically say, the polls aren't perfect.
Beyond that most of the swing states polls, Trump or Harris are leading by about 1%, that is really close and people changing their minds could alter the results. Trump is also trying to make Nebraska a win takes all state.
Edit: the stupid keys guy is also convinced Harris will win so that's something I guess.
If we are going to listen to the keys guy, we should take in account Putin endorsement too, every candidate he endorsed for the US presidency has won.
 
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