Serious The Politics Thread

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Itachi, huh?

To me it looks like you are seeking nuance to validate your pre-established position instead of seeking nuance that contradicts it. I see in your posts someone who is able to sense that something is wrong but is either unable to or unwilling to see what it is.

You are, presumably, on the free, open web like the rest of us. The reports, videos, and imagery that opened up so many to the true nature of the Israeli state's existence should be accessible to you as well. If you are so sure of your position, why not seek these out for yourself? What are you afraid of?

There's more I wish I could say to you, but I get the feeling you wouldn't be able to hear it. I hope you find your way.
 
I dont care ( edit i dont love this phrasing but more i cant articulate myself well enough in any way the rest of the Cabal hasnt already done and its 5am) enough to comment on all this but the "river to the sea is antisemitic" is so fucking funny when we literally censure our single Palestinian American representative in Congress when she uses it while Benjamin Netanyahu uses it quite literally to refer to his genocidal campaign.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politi...ahu-from-river-sea-israel-control-1234949408/
 
Laurel said:
I appreciate your response, and thank you for educating me on the correct term for Romi. The term I used was what I learned in school and the term I read in books.
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This is a great response and a mature admission that what you have been taught is not actually true. It's good to see that you're able to take feedback and reflect. Now do it for everything else you've said in this thread.
 
there’s been numerous reports coming from this thread today, and people need to take time to breathe and calm down and lower tensions right now. Reports will be investigated and dealt with appropriately but for now I’ll be locking this thread to give people that opportunity to de escalate until cong mods decide what to do later. Hope everyone has a good day!
 
Ignore the poster above and listen to me: one of the right wing candidates for mayor in são paulo, the same one that got hit with the chair, just tried to fake instagram deleting his super epic post about knowing everything that boulos (the main left wing "enemy") did and calling it censorship. And it fumbled so bad outside of his insane alt right following that another right wing candidate, malafaia, was like "boulos is our enemy but we cant allow this fake news to happen!!!!". Malafaia is known as a fucking crazy evangelist right wing that hates anything to the left so now everyone is theorizing what the fuck does he gain by this, and the accepted theory is that he's mad the bolsonarist wave is taking votes from the evangelic candidates so hes trying to get marçal out of running

there's even more but give me like 30 mins I gotta eat luncy
 
we've had elections in Austria last week on Sunday

the predictions were largely correct, FPÖ, the right wing party, has won by quite a lot

however, they were only able to get to around 30% of the voters. No other party is willing to cooperate with them under this circumstance. The currently governing conservative part ÖVP has the exact same goals as the FPÖ, but they aren't willing to work with them as a junior partner in a coalition. This was reflected in reactions by the FPÖ, who were and are actually frustrated after initial celebrations

I think that a minority government between ÖVP, SPÖ (social democratic party, albeit very neoliberal in recent years) and either NEOS (more likely, neolibs, financed by Peter Thiel) or Greens (less likely, but they had a stable coalition with the ÖVP for the last 5 years) is most likely. Media is also reporting about a planned meeting between ÖVP und SPÖ on Tuesday

The left has canibalized itself a lot. If KPÖ (commies) and some smaller left wing parties came together to improve ideological issues within the SPÖ, it could've resulted in a potential win for them

I am very frustrated about how the media reported on this. It's largely propagated that the only right wing voters are elderly native Austrians, but that's fucking bullshit. There are some vague statements about younger voters leaning more right, but that also doesn't tell the story. Somehow, there's a complete refusal to report or admit the fact that the vast majority of people with a migration background are right wing and avid FPÖ voters. A large chunk of the population comes from the Balkans (myself too) and somehow, people who come from a region with extreme nationalism and genocides about minor ethnic differences aren't reported as right wing voters? Somehow, muslim immigrants that grew up in a religious surrounding are going to vote left wing?

It's sooooo far removed from reality and it makes understanding the reasonings for a rise of right wing voters and combating the right wing just impossible

Additionally, social media is FLOODED with bots that push right wing ideology. And interestingly, whenever it's american election year, right wing parties in Europe soar. Also something that's not reported
 
Local Dog

Serious Post in thread 'The Politics Thread'

we've had elections in Austria last week on Sunday

the predictions were largely correct, FPÖ, the right wing party, has won by quite a lot

however, they were only able to get to around 30% of the voters. No other party is willing to cooperate with them under this circumstance. The currently governing conservative part ÖVP has the exact same goals as the FPÖ, but they aren't willing to work with them as a junior partner in a coalition. This was reflected in reactions by the FPÖ, who were and are actually frustrated after initial celebrations

I think that a minority government between...
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um it is quite common in europe for "muslim immigrants who grew up in a religious surrounding" to be heavily weighted toward the left, u know given that repression of north african and southwest asian migration is like the foundation of fascist movements in europe. (ofc whether ppl choose to vote is a different question, esp when the ""left"" parties in europe tend to also be extreme racists.) idk anything abt the conditions in austria, but you are here making blanket statements about that all muslims in the world lean right wing bc anyone whos religious is automatically right wing.

it doesnt apply in the so called us either, eg black people are weighted much more toward left of political spectrum (relative to any other sector of the society), including religious black people.

blanket statements about religious people is a thoroughly non-materialist form of political analysis, one might even call it a religious analysis

(this is another case where a Western set of metaphysical beliefs are deemed to be "universal", and therefore do not count as 'religious', while anyone's elses metaphysical beliefs are "particular" and therefore religious. i mean, claiming that all religious people lean right wing is one of the most extreme metaphysical beliefs ive encountered, im not rly sure that "measuring how metaphysical something is" can be meaningful but if there is any such measurement this would be "much more metaphysical" than most 'religious' beliefs
 
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juoean said:
um it is quite common in europe for "muslim immigrants who grew up in a religious surrounding" to be heavily weighted toward the left, u know given that repression of north african and southwest asian migration is like the foundation of fascist movements in europe. (ofc whether ppl choose to vote is a different question, esp when the ""left"" parties in europe tend to also be extreme racists.) idk anything abt the conditions in austria, but you are here making blanket statements about that all muslims in the world lean right wing bc anyone whos religious is automatically right wing.
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yeah the repression of further migration. The ones that are currently there and capable of voting are legally safeguarded (so far) and feel threatened by new people coming in

It's not neccessarily the religious point but rather that the societies that a lot of our immigrants come from are very similar to the ideal state that the right wing parties want to achieve

I also can't find any data on this for the life of me. I don't think anyone takes that kind of data
 
adjectivenoun said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1841155314306998282

Continuously funding Israel while insisting that they're trying their hardest to deescalate has failed in predictable fashion. I expect that American boots will be landing in the region in the near future. This will go down as the single greatest failure of Biden's tenure.
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Iran's regional allies are getting melted and the only response they had was a small missile attack that only managed to kill a single Palestinian. Iran's response was literally "don't respond or we'll do it again" aka "we need to act tough but we don't actually want to do anything to invite an actual war". Israel since hasn't actually responded, and they possibly won't.

Also that attack was almost a week ago and since then nothing more has happened. US boots on the ground isn't going to happen lmao, lets try to live in the real world.
 
well that is certainly a phenomenon that can happen sometimes @ migrants adopting the anti-immigrant ideology of the society they migrated to. has nothing to do with religion, nor to "similarities with the societies they came from" whatever it is you mean by that. the resurgence of fascism rn is global, so pretty much every society that anyone 'came from' contains some fascist tendencies. the places with the strongest fascist tendencies are ofc western europe and the "us," but obv the fascist resurgence is very strong in eastern europe rn as well. so i think its p absurd to suggest that any section of "muslim migrants" in austria are coming from societies that have stronger fascist tendencies than austrian society itself; but, yes every society that anyone comes from to some extent has fascist tendencies rn and that includes societies in north africa or southwest asia.

im not certain what u are referring to at data, did u mean like the political tendencies of migrants based on their home countries and the conditions of their migration? if thats what u meant then yea idt this is an area academics have paid much attention to, its also very hard to make generalized statements because every migration has very particular events. for example many migrations are driven by imperialist wars and so the political orientations of such a group of migrants will ofc be influenced by the conditions of the given war.
but theres definitely things that could be analyzed, just cant be reduced to generalized simplistic statements like "migrants from x category of countries will lean more toward y"
 
MrHands said:
Iran's regional allies are getting melted and the only response they had was a small missile attack that only managed to kill a single Palestinian. Iran's response was literally "don't respond or we'll do it again" aka "we need to act tough but we don't actually want to do anything to invite an actual war". Israel since hasn't actually responded, and they possibly won't.

Also that attack was almost a week ago and since then nothing more has happened. US boots on the ground isn't going to happen lmao, lets try to live in the real world.
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Nothing may come of this particular attack (I will concede that a week is an awfully long time in the news cycle for this particular conflict), but it seems plainly obvious to me that Israel's goal is to eventually enter full-scale war with its neighbors, and that's not going to change as long as America continues to financially and materially support it. When that happens, I expect that American boots will be there, especially if Trump is back in office.
 
adjectivenoun said:
Nothing may come of this particular attack (I will concede that a week is an awfully long time in the news cycle for this particular conflict), but it seems plainly obvious to me that Israel's goal is to eventually enter full-scale war with its neighbors, and that's not going to change as long as America continues to financially and materially support it. When that happens, I expect that American boots will be there, especially if Trump is back in office.
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Israel is already engaged in full scale war with its neighbors, and it seems like it's winning. There's literally no scenario where US boots would be on the ground in Gaza or Lebanon except possibly in a humanitarian role.

Iran isn't an Israeli neighbor and seems to be avoiding escalating to war. Neither Iran nor Israel are taking any actions that would lead to escalation and even if they were neither are particularly capable of striking the other in a meaningful way. It isn't going to escalate to WW3, relax.
 
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So what have we missed?
  1. Israel continues its genocide in Palestine unhindered - https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/2...n-gaza-by-israel-over-past-year-media-office/
  2. Israel carried out a pager/walkie talkie massacre across Lebanon, killing fourteen Hezbollah members and injuring thousands of civilian (is this not an act of terrorism?) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerr...non-one-day-after-hezbollah-pager-explosions/
  3. Israel started a new invasion, mass displacement and mass murder in Lebanon - again - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/25/israel-lebanon-border-conflicts-history-hezbollah/
  4. Israel then bombed the border crossing between Lebanon and Syria, so refugees have found it harder to flee Lebanon - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx20d0r8rvro
  5. The USA continues to fund and arm Israel - with another 8 billion for weapons - https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...secured-87-billion-us-aid-package-2024-09-26/
  6. Which the USA have done whilst large parts of its citizens are literally underwater - https://www.economist.com/united-st...mericas-deadliest-storm-in-nearly-two-decades
  7. The UNSC is still totally powerless, with absolutely no movement towards a ceasefire in sight - https://al24news.com/en/algeria-and...eeting-on-the-humanitarian-situation-in-gaza/
  8. Despite 2000 Lebanese citizens (including some British-Lebanese) dying, Sir Keir Starmer declared undying support for Israel - https://www.thenational.scot/politi...ust-stop-encouraging-israel-continue-madness/
  9. Iran managed to score direct hits on several military targets in Israel and have one civilian casualty, a Palestinian man, without targeting civilian infrastructure, with a serious attack on Israel by way of missiles - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/iran-missiles-attack-israel-deterrence/
  10. Iran then warned its “period of self restraint” was over - https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/50...restraint-has-ended-Iran-tells-US-in-indirect
  11. Israel declared the UN Secretary General “persona non gratis” - https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ikes?page=with:block-66fd1dba8f08dc8c16224aae
  12. Obviously with 42,000 dead in Gaza, and 2.3 million displaced, and with over 2000 dead in Lebanon, and another 1.5 million displaced, Israel has broken some truly horrifying records in a calendar year - https://www.democracynow.org/2024/9/24/lebanon_israel
I think I’ve covered most of it.

With apologies to our Palestinian and Lebanese members, hope you are managing with everything that is going on - my door’s always open for a chat if needed.

With respect to the pro-Israel crowd - what planet on you are on at the minute? How are you still defending all of this? How can it be acceptable that Israel blows up civilians in supermarkets with pagers and walkie talkies, and bombs apartment buildings, and more, and yet still we hear about “right to defend itself” when Iran retaliates and hits only military targets?

The incredible double standards, that just seem to be growing bigger and bigger with every passing day, are horrifying. The dehumanisation of the Palestinians, and now Lebanese, is appalling.

In one calendar year, since October 7th, Israel has shown itself to be fully capable of even more horrific and horrifying acts of violence.

When will the killing end?
 
Bakugames said:
Ignore the poster above and listen to me: one of the right wing candidates for mayor in são paulo, the same one that got hit with the chair, just tried to fake instagram deleting his super epic post about knowing everything that boulos (the main left wing "enemy") did and calling it censorship. And it fumbled so bad outside of his insane alt right following that another right wing candidate, malafaia, was like "boulos is our enemy but we cant allow this fake news to happen!!!!". Malafaia is known as a fucking crazy evangelist right wing that hates anything to the left so now everyone is theorizing what the fuck does he gain by this, and the accepted theory is that he's mad the bolsonarist wave is taking votes from the evangelic candidates so hes trying to get marçal out of running

there's even more but give me like 30 mins I gotta eat luncy
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Hi i had lunch and also a nice nap.

Current order of events (that we know of):

Marçal creates a fake image of a medical report that states Boulos used drugs - coke in specific - in high dosages. The image is extremely fake, from the template being taken from the top images of a "medical report" google search, to incorrect ssn numbers and names, a doctor who has been dead for 2 years, a unintentifiable signature, and a date of exam that would be impossible since boulos has literal instagram postings of him being somewhere else the day of. As a bonus, the owner of the clinic used is a friend of Marçal and has a false medicine diploma

The post is deleted, Marçal claims censorship, but outside his bubble the report gets quickly debunked for the reasons above. Malafaia, who has been in conflict with Marçal over losing the evangelical vote and the fracturing of the right wing parties, jumps onto the opportunity and condemns Marçal.

Boulos goes on the offensive, and is planning on recouring to the supreme to have Marçal imprisioned and removed from the race for fake news and libel.

Currently, a lot of right wing folks have a Qanon relationship with right wing politicians, where everything they say is true and part of a conspiracy if "proven wrong", so the debunkings are not going to change most voters views on Marçal
 
Local Dog said:
yeah the repression of further migration. The ones that are currently there and capable of voting are legally safeguarded (so far) and feel threatened by new people coming in

It's not neccessarily the religious point but rather that the societies that a lot of our immigrants come from are very similar to the ideal state that the right wing parties want to achieve

I also can't find any data on this for the life of me. I don't think anyone takes that kind of data
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AFD & FDP only got 3% in the only survey data for Berlin state parliament specifically about muslim voters i've found on June 9, Greens 7%, Left 8%, SPD 13%, CDU 15% and both BSW & DAWA 17%. Take of it what you will from that little data, but keep in mind that only a small minority of muslims with german citizenship actually do go vote and that Berlin is one of the least religious places/regions in all of Germany.
 
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The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, has called for a halt to arms shipments to Israel.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...ries-to-israel-for-use-in-gaza_6728282_4.html

French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday, October 5, urged a halt to arms deliveries to Israel, which has been criticized over the conduct of its retaliatory operation in Gaza.

"I think that today, the priority is that we return to a political solution, that we stop delivering weapons to fight in Gaza," Macron told broadcaster France Inter. "France is not delivering any," he added during the interview recorded early this week.
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He is only twelve months late to this, but I welcome this. Will the rest of the world join him?

Of course, Netanyahu has been quick to respond:

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-823297

Despite the calls for an arms embargo, Netanyahu was defiant, expressing confidence in Israel’s ability to prevail. “Israel will win with or without their support,” he said. “But their shame will continue long after the war is won.”
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MrHands said:
Israel since hasn't actually responded, and they possibly won't.
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Neither Iran nor Israel are taking any actions that would lead to escalation and even if they were neither are particularly capable of striking the other in a meaningful way.
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if you know anything about israeli war policy or have looked at the news at any point in recent history (by that I mean like in the last 50 years or so), this is deeply and profoundly delusional. israeli policy is to attempt to shock and awe their opponents into submission with an overwhelming show of force (funded by your taxes), destroying infrastructure and housing and causing mass civillian deaths. look up the dahiya doctrine.

I'd very easily bet a thousand dollars israel will retaliate in a needlessly bloody way in a week or two
 
gvmgvm40 said:
if you know anything about israeli war policy or have looked at the news at any point in recent history (by that I mean like in the last 50 years or so), this is deeply and profoundly delusional. israeli policy is to attempt to shock and awe their opponents into submission with an overwhelming show of force (funded by your taxes), destroying infrastructure and housing and causing mass civillian deaths. look up the dahiya doctrine.

I'd very easily bet a thousand dollars israel will retaliate in a needlessly bloody way in a week or two
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Israel doesn't have a large ballistic missile arsenal. The only way it can actually reach Iran at all is with aircraft but that requires 1) flying over Jordan / Iraq and 2) using mid-air refueling to make the 1200+ mile trip of which Israel only has 7 tankers. If Israel actually does hit Iran it's mostly limited to either a few oil / gas refineries or trying to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. But that's pretty much it. Similarly Iran is limited to ballistic missile and drone launches which as we see from Russia in Ukraine is far from enough to defeat a country especially when the defender has modern multi-layered air defenses.

I have no doubt that if Israel could flatten Tehran it probably would but it literally lacks the military capacity to. Iran also would be happy to see Israel burn but it can't really do that either. In the end both nations have very, very little to gain from direct escalation and their responses have shown this. Sorry if that doesn't work with your worldview but in reality both sides are probably going to deescalate. Not by choice but by necessity.
 
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