Ben Johnson going to a team with Rodgers on it would be the ultimate betrayal. You pass up on the Commanders job because you feel like you have unfinished business here, and then you do that? I'll wish him all the success in the world when he goes and gets a head coaching job provided that he goes anywhere else outside the division.
-
Smogon Premier League is here and the team collection is now available. Support your team!
-
Follow our Instagram!
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2025 Smog Awards!
Sports NFL Thread: 2024-25 Season
- Thread starter adjectivenoun
- Start date
I can't think of anytime I felt a true "Betrayal" I guess closest in my lifespan was Revis going to the Pats for a bit winning, but he still came back and tbf I know more Jets fans that despite hating it was with the Pats are happy Revis got to get a ring moreso than "F THAT GUY!" (Especially cus he came back)
I'm sure Packers fans felt a certain way when Brett essentially used the Jets as a bridge year to get to where he wanted to go when he left Green Bay: Minnesota.
Maybe Giants fans with Saquan - but most Giants fan I know are more mad at the front office and take it as they disrespected him then Saquan being a traitor.
I think the most obvious example of "betrayal" (but I was too young then and not as invested to take it as much) is Bill Belicheck and the napkin after 1 day as coach of the Jets to go become the Patriots coach.... but I take that as just a bit of a scumbag move than anything. Not cus of him making that decision but even bothering with the whole Jets situation in the first place which in turn forced the ultimate lack of tact and respect in leaving a day in. If it only took a day why didn't ya just wait cus nothing happens that quick. Wait the Pats role out rather than seemingly rushing into the Jets job.
I'm being a little silly. In reality, it's just about where the appealing opportunities are; if BJ gets a sweet deal to go coach the Jets, I wouldn't blame him for accepting. My cope will be that the offense is just as much the work of Campbell and Goff, even though that's probably not true.
most my life the 2 teams i grew around had defensive HCs, that's the bane of a defensive HC: if your offense looks good someone scooping ya OC (justifiably so for the OC can get their chance to HC off their output) but it's a constant reset. I don't often agree with Colin Cowherd but i will admit he and I both believe in "Life is easier, success often easier to sustain overtime with a successful offensive than defensive HC."
and being clear obv we all love big plays but ive always loved watching top tier defensive play most, my fav player as a super youngin was Bruce Smith & people like Troy Polamalu and Patrick Willis a lil later on as i grew up.
Aidan Hutchinson shattered his leg on a sack. He's probably out for the season. The Lions strangled the Cowboys on both sides of the ball for their best and most complete win in a long time, and I feel nothing. Of course this happens against my most hated franchise in all of professional sports. Of course next week is the Vikings for the biggest test of the season so far. Of fucking course.
Fuck the Cowboys. They didn't cause the injury, but they can fuck right off to Hell anyway. I hope that Jerry Jones does so in the near future, and his stodgy son condemns them to another three decades of going nowhere.
Fuck the Cowboys. They didn't cause the injury, but they can fuck right off to Hell anyway. I hope that Jerry Jones does so in the near future, and his stodgy son condemns them to another three decades of going nowhere.
I legit hope yall land Crosby, DET is a second home to me cus of friends & music interests. he just seems to fit there. (wouldnt claim em outta respect to real fans, but i always wished them the best cus my friends love em so much)
hell take hassan reddick off the jets hands lol.
Crosby is the dream, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Holmes is definitely gonna try to get an elite replacement from a team that's pawning assets off, but it takes two to tango, and I'd be surprised if the Raiders are willing to give up the face of the defense again after what happened with Khalil Mack. Plus, Crosby seems to genuinely love playing with the Raiders for some reason. He may well be their version of Larry Fitzgerald.
Crosby himself said he'd only wanna play for the Lions if not the Raiders cus hes OG from the glove.
I respect him holding his team up even if they don't do right by bro, but i really think it's time and he'd fit mint in Detroit.
Last edited:
Well, it was a stressful and somewhat maddening ride, but we did it. We knocked off the Vikings, and we did it without much of a pass rush on account of Hutch's absence. The offense showed up against Brian Flores and his exotic blitz packages, and the defense did what it had to do despite not having Hutch. Jake Bates guided us to greatness with his mighty leg. There's always things to clean up, and the pressure is on Holmes to do something about the direly-felt absence of Hutch, but I'll take a win against this kind of team regardless of the score.
packers knock off 5-1 houston (i never thought houston was that good, but their former record is fun to bandy about here). this stat sums the game up really
GB average length of scoring drive: 69 yds
HOU average length of scoring drive: 28 yds
GB average length of scoring drive: 69 yds
HOU average length of scoring drive: 28 yds
Congratulations! I only caught a brief glimpse of the uniforms, but I hope you never use them again.
I worked today and saw CJ Stroud only passed for like 86-88 yards and was like wth happened? I know the Packers are good so no slight there but... what happened Houston? lol.
I can hear my ex (one I'm still friendly with, a Texans fan) in my head saying "Don't wanna talk about it."
Needless to say the Bills fans in my family was texting like "THIS THE TEAM YALL KNOCKED US DOWN A RUNG FOR IN THE AFC RACE?!"
Phew.
Do think Houston is better than their performance today though. Obv their record shows it.
Also Jordan Love is coming off a bit more Favre than Rodgers (tho his form really feels like Rodgers in ways) rn --- dude can throw picks but come back like "I didn't and you didn't see that," and make plays lol
More franchises need to find a way to study how Green Bay does this with QBs.
I can hear my ex (one I'm still friendly with, a Texans fan) in my head saying "Don't wanna talk about it."
Needless to say the Bills fans in my family was texting like "THIS THE TEAM YALL KNOCKED US DOWN A RUNG FOR IN THE AFC RACE?!"
Phew.
Do think Houston is better than their performance today though. Obv their record shows it.
Also Jordan Love is coming off a bit more Favre than Rodgers (tho his form really feels like Rodgers in ways) rn --- dude can throw picks but come back like "I didn't and you didn't see that," and make plays lol
More franchises need to find a way to study how Green Bay does this with QBs.
There's a lot going into our successful run (including some luck), but part of it is just giving ourselves time to develop and monitor QBs before they hit the field. We got twitter roasted for drafting him at a time where Rodgers still looked elite, but he had three years to shadow and learn as a backup. There's a lot of ways this can help besides just the pure learning value – he becomes more familiar and comfortable within the team, developing relationships with players, he has time to grow and mature his personality instead of being a college kid, and this time in the oven serves as a signal that we're committed to him. It was tragic seeing how quickly people were calling for, like, Bryce Young's head, but we weren't going to abandon Love after 5 games – we sunk 40 games' worth of time into him. I bet that goes a long way in making stress more manageable for him, and it might contribute to the X-factor you and everyone is talking about–his resilience.
I'm not so sure. There's sort of a "bad team cartel" rooted in the AFC South, where bad-to-mid teams keep drawing each other and someone has to win, and some teams look better than they should.
Colts: Look like a solid 4-3 team, but they had 4 games against the awful Titans, awful Jaguars, awful Dolphins, and Bears.
Bears: Look like a solid 4-3 team, but they 4 games against the awful Titans, awful Jaguars, awful Panthers, and Colts.
Titans: Awful, and feeding wins to other weak teams.
Jaguars: Awful, and feeding wins to other weak teams.
The Texans look like a good 5-2 team, but they had 4 games against the Colts, Bears, Jaguars, and awful Patriots. They haven't even looked that great in these games, winning 3 of the 4 by less than a touchdown. They have 6 games remaining against weak teams (Jets, Titans * 2, Dolphins, Jaguars, Colts), so they can basically sleepwalk to an 11 win or 12 win season, even if they only have one quality win (against the Bills).
On that note, the Texans' performances against good teams:
Beat Bills on a last second field goal. Josh Allen had like a 30% completion percentage – seems a bit fluky.
Lose to Packers on a last second field goal. Packers come in with the best turnover ratio in the league, lose the turnover battle 0-3. Seems a bit fluky. Turnovers in general are fluky and the Packers were expected to return to earth on the turnover game, but even if the turnovers are 0-0 here, Houston maybe loses by 2-3 TDs.
Trounced by the Vikings 34-7. It's the powered-up early season Vikings, sure, but still.
I don't know if they make it work. One could levy a similar charge against the Packers, with their wins over the Colts and Titans, but they've looked better in quality opponent losses, looked better in low-quality wins (despite being in their #MalikTheFreak era for two of them), and, most importantly to me, come off a pedigree from the end of last season.
I would agree with this; however, the Lions are playing four AFC South matchups in the next five weeks, so I need to front like these teams are good for a while in order to have cope if they lose one of them. Sorry!
In all seriousness, I feel like this is pretty true of both the AFC and NFC South divisions. It's the same reason I was low on the Bucs going into the season: They played six games against the Panthers/Saints/Falcons, and their one playoff win was against an Eagles team in absolute free fall. You can only play the teams in front of you, but it's never hard to predict an early playoff loss for teams like that. I think that Stroud is the real deal, but we're not gonna know how real the Texans are as a whole for a while. They won a playoff game, but how much of that was on the Browns being shot to pieces and Flacco's magic wearing off? Their record wasn't that great, and the Ravens stomped them into a crater in the next round. As always, I'll decide how I feel once the Lions play them.
Oh all this I'm very much in tune with, I've always been pro-give a young QB time.. sadly the NFL now rarely does. You are either really good to great right away or show some flash to get that 2nd or 3rd year. When I was young rookies usually sat for at least a year to learn behind someone even if only a bridge to learn the "QB-isms"/System/and build the chemistry through practice and such. Now if the QB you get comes in is buns like say the Jimmy Clausen/Josh Rosen to Cam Newton/Kyler Murray respectively I get doing the back to back drafting but I usually don't.
My mentality is build the team first THEN draft the "captain" (ie a QB), a captain is nothing without his ship to navigate through the waters.
Edit* the art is in the scouting of the talents, anyone can make someone learn behind a great if you got one, -- the struggle is getting one haha. Green Bay seem to got a good eye, then has a system to tutor and build. God knows theres so many teams that seem to have no clue with that.
As for the Texans I do think they are a pretty good team, but you essentially described the formula of how the Dolphins got so chatty over the last few years. Time will prove if they're the that side or if they are actually coming up the ranks.
Which is funny cus I hear people say "I think Green Bay is good but they're a year away from being TRUE SUPERBOWL CONTENDERS" yet ya crowned the Texans off one good year? lol
Last edited:
To be fair, the AFC is full of perennial chokers. If the Texans can find a way to not shit themselves and give the game away against the Chiefs, their ticket to at least one Super Bowl is just about punched. The Packers have some post-2010 demons to overcome before people will accept them as true contenders (San Francisco's ongoing Super Bowl hangover helps with that), but Jordan Love will probably ensure that they're in the mix for the foreseeable future.
Highlighted the part that I know all too well coming from my family being Bills v Jets, I know that allllllllllllll too well.
To your point though I think everyone from Packers fan to everyone else know what their demon was, there is a reason we give kudos to their success with QBs for 30+ years mainly when we speak of them haha: it's the defense.
I will say if I was a Packers fan I wouldn't even be THAT UPSET Jordan turns it over sometimes (i'm sure Chiefs fans arent too mad at Patrick this year lol) because he makes the plays he does.
It's getting around midseason. I made a power ranking to chart how I feel about the league right now.
Every rank has three parts. The metrics are the primary – but not only – tools I rank by. The snapshot gives a quick-and-dirty picture of what makes a team different, what they're especially good and/or bad at. The commentary contextualizes the other two and adds in other situational information.
I use four metrics. Win-Loss Record, holistic previous Playoff Performance (PP), 5-Year Playoff Appearances & Conference Championship Appearances (5Y), and Quality game average point Differential* (QD). For more on why I chose these, see the hidden blurb. I count "Quality Games" where the opponent has about a 1/3 chance to make the playoffs or more, per NFL.com. I also specify how many quality games a team has played.
For the snapshot, I just use whatever team stats are unusual, interesting, and say something meaningful. I then split up the teams into tiers based on how big of contenders I think they are.
Heir Apparent Tier
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
PP: Excellent!
5Y: 5/5
QD: +6 (5)
3rd Down %: 3rd
Interceptions Allowed: T-28th
Sacks Allowed: T-29th
Run Defense: 4th
Scoring Defense: 5th
They have made the conference championship 5 years in a row. The only team sniffing that mark has a losing record. They’re undefeated through a daunting schedule. Their conference field is weak. Nothing could dethrone them from here. However, cleaning up the passing offense would be great to take advantage of some rivals weak to that department.
Inner Contenders
2. Detroit Lions (5-1)
PP: Great!
5Y: 1/1
QD: +13 (4)
Yards: 2nd
Scoring Offense: 2nd
Run Defense: 5th
Turnover Differential: T-4th
Field Goal %: T-1st
Stomping ahead to the clear highest quality differential, Detroit has picked up right where they left off last season, when they nearly made the Super Bowl. Their underlying metrics are strong in offense, defense, and miscellaneous, even if Total QB Rating is a bit bearish on Goff. With San Francisco’s troubles, they’re on the inside track to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They barely lost to the 49ers on the road and would love to runback at Ford Field. However, they need to win their division before all that. Knocking off the undefeated Vikings in Minnesota was a great start. A date with the Packers at Lambeau looms large in two weeks’ time. All else equal, they will lead the division with a win and fall to third with a loss. The only knock against this team is a low sample size of greatness, really just last year.
3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 4/1
QD: +7 (6)
Yards: 1st
Total QB Rating: 1st
Rushing: 1st
Run Defense: 1st
Pass Defense: 32nd
Baltimore has a reputation for stomping posers and losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs. There’s no immediate reason to change from either projection right now, especially with their close loss in Kansas City to start the season. Still, every time they get deep into the AFC playoffs is another chance for games to go their way. Getting there should be relatively easy with their dominating performance in perhaps the league’s hardest schedule. They need to keep up the pace, though. 7 games against playoff hopefuls remain, including two dates with the upstart Steelers. They're already in a hole in the race for playoff home field, especially since they lost the tiebreaker to Kansas City, and they might need to run the table to claim the #1 seed. Outright losing the division to the Steelers would be bad and is not impossible, but the favorite is clear.
4. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
PP: Excellent!
5Y: 4/4
QD: +2 (4)
Yards: 3rd
Passing: 4th
Rushing: 6th
Field Goals Attempted: T-2nd
3rd Down % Allowed: 28th
The poor record is more from poor luck than a proper dethroning. Their history and underlying metrics are strong. First, the injury bug tears through them. Then, their balanced offensive attack is struggling to land in the end zone, with a lot of field goal reliance, which may just be fluky. Also, they lost two games to division rivals by a combined 4 points. If some breaks go their way, we instead talk about how the 5-2 49ers nearly lead the conference despite their injuries.
5. Green Bay Packers (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 4/2
QD: +-0 (4)
Yards: 5th
Rushing: 5th
Fewest Sacks Allowed, Sacks: T-5th, T-6th
Fumble Turnover Differential: T-1st
Field Goal Percentage: 30th
On the field, the current Green Bay Packers are somewhere between the middling outfit to start last season and the fearsome unit to end it. A solid, physical core gave a decent start despite Love’s injury. As Love continues to get more comfortable, and the young offensive core develops further, this team could get hot again, especially if their new kicker helps with those field goals. A big question is turnovers. Their T-3rd turnover differential is buoyed by random fumble luck, where they’re +5, and not the less-random interception rate, where they’re only +1. Their turnover luck will likely regress to the mean. Beating Houston despite a -3 differential, though, inspires faith they will survive that.
6. Buffalo Bills (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 5/1
QD: -8 (3)
Total QB Rating: 1st
Scoring Offense: 5th
Scoring Defense: 8th
Fourth Down %: T-1st
Turnover Differential: 1st
The Bills are the other side of the coin as the red-hot Vikings, who they were below in most drafts of this list. The Vikings are in the hell division, the Bills are in fluffy cloud heaven. The Vikings have terrible recent playoff history, the Bills are good there. (4 years since a conference championship appearance makes me hesitate to say "great".) The Vikings are stomping quality opponents, the Bills are not doing that. Both have questionably sustainable scoring efficiency, both on offense and defense. The Bills' perfect fourth down conversions and league-leading turnover differential are also unlikely to continue forever. However, Josh Allen's great play can help explain their lack of turnovers and scoring efficiency despite unimpressive yardage. A star QB is a fantastic asset in the playoffs, and the Bills may need him to excel there. Especially against the Chiefs, who the Bills tend to come up just short on.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)
PP: Good
5Y: 4/1
QD: +1 (6)
Yards: 8th
3rd Down %: 3rd
Fewest Offensive Penalty Yards: 3rd
Scoring Offense: 3rd
Pass Defense: 29th
Tampa Bay has a recent habit of floating around the NFC postseason, taking the role from Atlanta of old. It wasn’t just Tom Brady, as they gave Detroit a solid fight in Ford Field last year. Another playoff game, at home, is very likely from the drab NFC South. However, pass defense is a dangerous weakness to have, since it's usually the most important part of defense. Tampa is relying on little optimizations to crank out points from their offense to compensate, which could leave them susceptible to minor bad breaks in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is a great bet to make it to the divisional round, but advancing further would be tough. If they were in a good division and lacked the inside track to a decent seed, they would not be an inner contender.
Outside Contenders
8. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: +8 (5)
Scoring Offense: 6th
Scoring Defense: 6th
Rush Defense: 2nd
Pass Defense: 30th
Turnover Differential: 7th
The Vikings have a habit of peaking early and dropping off late. There’s no immediate reason to not project the same outcome here. Their point differential is excellent, especially in quality games, but their offense and defense production is not that great in terms of yards, so it’s an open question whether they’ll keep up that gaudy scoring margin. They’re also a bit lucky on fumbles and hauling the most interceptions league-wide, and both trends may regress. Fending off the Packers was nice, but giving Detroit a boost in the head-to-head tiebreaker bites. They’ll probably have to equalize on the road for a shot at the crown. Despite all these flaws, beating quality opponents by a touchdown is an attractive quality, so they deserve a look.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
PP: Poor
5Y: 4/1
QD: -4 (3)
Rushing: 2nd
Scoring Defense: 7th
Fewest Offensive, Defensive Penalty Yards: 4th, 2nd
Fumble Turnover Differential: 31st
3rd Down % Allowed: 27th
The Eagles are an odd bunch. They’re coming off a dreadful playoff flame-out, have a middling quality differential, and are very reliant on “bend but don’t break” defensively. That seems to imply they’re vulnerable. However, they’re a playoff perennial, they’re clearly more composed than the disaster last year, and their horrible fumble luck is likely to regress to the mean, so they have plenty of room to grow. High ceiling, low floor probably gives higher Super Bowl odds than the reverse, because being consistently OK is rarely enough to swipe three playoff games.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/2
QD: -3 (3)
Total QB Rating: 4th
Passing: 8th
Rushing: 28th
Fewest Interceptions: 4th
Fewest Penalties O, OYards, D, DYards: 3rd, 5th, 4th, 3rd
Volatile teams can ride a hot streak into the Super Bowl. The Bengals are comically volatile. Their 5-year is either “missing the playoffs” or “making the Conference Championship.” And they won it once, too. This year, they haven’t won or lost a game by more than 7 points so far, bar “drubbing” the lowly Panthers and Giants by a colossal 10 points. Neck and neck with the titanic Chiefs and Ravens – losing by 1 and in overtime, respectively – yet losing to the dismal Patriots. At home, no less! At least the Patriots was Week 1 and slowly fading into the rearview… but then the Chiefs were Week 2 too. You’d think a good team losing easy and close games might be making silly mistakes, but that doesn’t seem to be it either. Who knows. Go off, kings.
11. Washington Football Team (5-2)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -6 (3)
Yards: 4th
Total QB Rating: 3rd
Rushing: 3rd
Scoring Offense: T-1st
Fewest Giveaways: 2nd
A somewhat close loss in Baltimore suggests this team can play with the big boys. Winning against them is a bit of a sore subject, though. Their gaudy offensive stats come in part from preying on weak squads like Carolina and Cleveland. However, total QB rating does take opponent difficulty into account. If Daniels stays this hot, this team has a solid ceiling. Relying on a rookie QB with little playoff track record is risky business, though. Daniels probably won’t avoid picks like Green Bay Rodgers forever, especially because his protection is more average than not. Similarly, offenses recover fumbles about 55% of the time. The Commanders have recovered 6 of their 7 so far, 86%.
Decent
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
PP: Poor
5Y: 3/0
QD: +5 (6)
Yards Allowed: 8th
Run Defense: 3rd
Scoring Defense: 2nd
Turnover Differential: 2nd
Defensive Penalty Yards: 32nd
Pittsburgh is a defensive stalwart that has a history of making the playoffs. They will probably do that again. They are a middling offensive team that has a history of losing early in the playoffs. They will probably do that again. They’ve faced a solid schedule, with 6/7 quality games, but usually against the bottom rung of the quality baseline. Don’t get carried away by the quality differential. Their most impressive performance is a 13-7 win in Denver, and that’s a more realistic signal of strength here.
13. Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 3/0
QD: +-0 (4)
Passing: 1st
Total QBR: 10th
Rushing: 27th
Run Defense: 28th
Sacks: 8th
The 49ers’ and Rams’ woes have given Seattle a golden opportunity to run away with the division lead. They have not done that, only squeezing one game above the 49ers and Cardinals. Losing head-to-head to San Francisco was especially unfortunate, as they’ll have to equalize that tiebreaker in sunny Santa Clara. Geno Smith’s performance is wonderful, but he doesn’t benefit from a solid, balanced attack on either side of the ball. I still remember when Geno played for the Mountaineers a solid 12 years ago. Gosh.
14. Denver Broncos (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: +-0 (5)
Yards: 27th
Passing: 29th
Yards Allowed: 3rd
Pass Defense: 5th
Scoring Defense: 3rd
Bottom 5 offense is not going to win the Super Bowl. Sorry! If you were in a weaker division, you’d at least have a shot of defending home turf in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have something to say about that. A brutal back-to-back in Kansas City and Baltimore looms. If they can snag one of those, their stock might go up. For now, getting past Wild Card Weekend looks grim, with an unremarkable rookie QB leading a bad offense.
15. Houston Texans (5-2)
PP: OK
5Y: 2/0
QD: -6 (4)
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 29th
Yards Allowed: 2nd
Scoring Defense: 17th
Sacks: T-4th
Fewest Offensive Penalties, Yards: 29th, 29th
Somebody has to win the AFC South. Winning in Lucas Oil was fantastic for that, snatching the lead and the tiebreaker from the Colts for now. They could lose at home this week – they haven’t swept the Colts since 2016 – but there’s a bigger issue. Houston hasn’t shown a higher ceiling than preying on Wild Card visitors. Beating the Bills this season was impressive, but even then, it was a last second field goal at home. Forcing the Packers to come back in Lambeau was impressive, but they needed a 3-0 turnover differential to be competitive. At some point, nitpicking quality performances isn’t super valuable, but Houston is a team that sorely needs an emphatic statement win. If they can use their defensive production to efficiently block scoring, and Stroud goes off, they could do it.
Middling
16: Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -6 (5)
Passing: 7th
Fewest Interceptions Allowed: T-27th
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 8th
Sacks: 32nd
3rd Down % Allowed: 29th
Before last week, the Falcons were in a great spot. They did respectable against an daunting opening 3, clutched out an overtime win against Tampa Bay to angle for the division, and had a 3-game winning streak. Losing by 20 at home to the okay Seahawks is cause for reflection. They don’t have the recent pedigree of their division rivals, so they get more suspicion, and their defensive toughness leaves room for doubt. Still, they’ve had some good games and could surprise.
17. Los Angeles Rams (2-4)
PP: Good
5Y: 3/1
QD: -3 (3)
Yards: 20th
Scoring Offense: 23rd
Yards Allowed: 26th
Scoring Defense: 25th
Fewest Offensive Penalties, Yards: 1st, 1st
The Rams do not look good on either side of the ball right now, but they have a strong recent history and are showing up in big games. Beating the 49ers a month ago and taking the Lions to overtime in Ford Field are highlights. They have what it takes to beat the Vikings at home next week, win in Seattle the next, and vie for the division crown. Both of their elite injuried receivers may be returning, even if they're in talks to trade one. At any rate, they probably won’t pull the turnaround off, but it’s possible. Fun fact: Stafford and Detroit's Goff have basically identical total QB Rating right now.
18: Los Angeles Chargers (3-3)
PP: No
5Y: 1/0
QD: -3 (4)
Yards: 25th
Scoring Offense: 26th
Yards Allowed: 7th
Scoring Defense: 1st
Turnover Differential: T-3rd
The Bolts have a tendency to flag late–note their lacking 5Y–but there’s reason for optimism here if you want it. Top class defense and a workable record against a solid schedule is impressive, and the quality differential is about league average. Next, three lightweight games give them a time to build steam, then the playoff contenders loom. Maybe Herbert can get them into gear. The jury will be out on them for a while, unless they collapse to the Browns and Titans in spectacular fashion, then we’ll probably know.
19. Indianapolis Colts (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -2 (3)
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 4th
Fumble Turnover Differential: T-1st
Yards Allowed: 29th
Run Defense: 31st
Scoring Defense: 12th
The Colts are primed to regress. They have fantastic fumble luck, their scoring defense looks way too good to be true, and their coming schedule is daunting. Winning this week in Houston, tying the pair's records and head-to-head records, is near-essential for a shot at the division crown. If they lose, they will need to gain 3 games on Houston to coup, and they will immediately head to Minnesota. Next is hosting Buffalo, and two weeks later the Lions. Good luck.
20. Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
PP: Poor
5Y: 3/0
QD: -13 (3)
Passing: 2nd
Total QB Rating: 23rd
Rushing, Run Defense: 32nd, 27th
Scoring Defense: 31st
Average Kick, Punt Return: 1st, 2nd
Dak Prescott continues to accumulate yards, and his team continues to lose spectacularly to good teams. Remember when they were down 41-16 in their wild card loss last season? Or when the Ravens were leading 28-6 this season? Or when the Lions won 47-9 last week? Yeah. All three games were at home, by the way. Also the defense is on fire, as in the bad way. The Cowboys are still an OK bet to make the playoffs, as rivals can fade down the stretch, but it’s hard to imagine a deep run, which they haven’t had since 1995. Some tough games loom down the stretch, but somehow, they all seem to be at home – beside next week’s date against the 9ers.
21. Chicago Bears (4-2)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -6 (2)
Yards: 24th
Total QB Rating: 26th
Scoring Offense: 12th
Yards Allowed, Scoring Defense: 5th, 4th
Turnover Differential: T-3rd
Their record is in line with the other NFC North teams, but underneath the hood they are not. Their offensive efficiency magic is unlikely to last, especially since their schedule has been cupcake thus far. The fairy tale can last until their end of season death stretch. The only team with a losing record in their final 8 is the 49ers (on the road), who are the fakest bad team of all time. Joining them are all six menacing division games, with a “break” of hosting the 4-3 Seahawks. Good grief.
Mediocre
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -10 (6)
Total QB Rating: 5th
Fewest Sacks: T-5th
Passing: 25th
Rushing: 6th
Yards Allowed: 27th
They’re somehow only one game out from the division lead. They have three very winnable games before their first game with the Seahawks, and they barely clipped the 49ers in San Francisco. A 7-4 division leading Cardinals is not impossible, even if the team doesn’t improve a ton. They have an okay two-pronged offense. Overall, they’re materially in control of their destiny, which is more than many teams can say.
23. New Orleans Saints (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: -7 (6)
Yards: 21st
Scoring Offense: 11th
Total QBR: 6th
3rd Down %, Field Goal %: 6th, T-1st
Yards Allowed: 32nd
Poor offensive production and terrible defense is a bad combination. However, unlike some other teams scraping many points out of few yards, the Saints inspire a little more confidence they can keep it up, buoying it with varyingly fickle support beams. Let's not miss the forest, though. Even in the NFC South, a 2-5 start is not it for getting a playoff berth. Losing to both division rivals is also bad, especially by 24. They lost to a last second Younghoe Koo 58 yard field goal in Atlanta, so they could spoil the Birds down the line in New Orleans, if it comes to that. Heck, if they win in Los Angeles next week, they have a soft 5-game stretch afterwards, so nothing is impossible.
Bad
Author's note: I'm evaluating teams as competitors at a pretty bird's eye level. I can squint for the Saints, but these teams aren't competitors, and I'm no specialist at winnowing through micro-level data. Therefore I don't have a ton to say about these teams, and their rankings within this tier are fairly arbitrary.
24. New York Giants (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -9 (6)
Yards: 28th
Fewest Sacks Allowed, Sacks: 30th, 1st
Fewest Penalties O, OYards, D, DYards: 25th, 26th, 29th, 23rd
Pass Defense: 6th
3rd Down % Allowed: 3rd
If you want to squint for hope, see that pass defense and the tough schedule thus far, including a win in Seattle and a last-second loss in Washington. To be realistic, they’re the bottom dog in an unimpressive division. To be spiteful, they’re somehow still above the Jets.
25. New York Jets (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -9 (5)
Total QB Rating, Fewest Interceptions Allowed: 24th, 27th
Rushing: 31st
Yards Allowed: 6th
Pass Defense: 2nd
Field Goal %: 32nd
Pairing Aaron Rodgers with a defense is conceptually neat, but they’re bottom 10 in passing yards, and it's not quality over quantity. Only wins are over the Titans and Patriots. The AFC has room for mistakes, but this team is a stinker.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -11 (4)
Yards: 26th
Yards Allowed: 11th
Scoring Defense: 29th
3rd Down % Allowed: 2nd
Fumble Turnover Differential: 32nd
Maybe their scoring defense bounces up to expectation with that decent yards defense, maybe their fumble luck turns around, and maybe they sneak into the playoffs. And then maybe they move back to Oakland. How awesome would that be, yeah?
27. Miami Dolphins (2-4)
PP: Poor
5Y: 2/0
QD: -16 (3)
Scoring Offense: 32nd
3rd Down %, 3rd Down % Allowed: 27th, 1st
Yards Allowed: 4th
Pass Defense: 1st
Scoring Defense: 14th
Some of these bad teams have impressively stingy defenses. They are still bad. I understand Tua wasn’t playing, but losing by 19 at home to the Titans stings.
28. Cleveland Browns (1-6)
PP: Poor
5Y: 2/0
QD: -12 (4)
Total QB Rating: 32nd
Passing: 30th
Rushing: 29th
Scoring Offense: 29th
Fewest Sacks: 32nd
Turns out you have to move the ball to score points and win. They give up almost 1.5x as many sacks as second place. Their defense is more "middle of the pack" than "elite".
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -13 (3)
Yards Allowed: 28th
Pass Defense: 31st
Run Defense: 6th
Scoring Defense: 30th
Turnover Differential: 27th
That run defense is less shiny when it is so easy to bypass. Honestly, it may partially result from teams not bothering to run as much, because they know they can just throw it up.
30. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 3/0
QD: -13 (4)
Yards: 31st
3rd Down %: 29th
Yards Allowed: 1st
Scoring Defense: 21st
Turnover Differential: 31st
Denver fans may be worried how many stinkers share their general stat spread. Although, how on earth do you give up that few yards and that many points? The turnovers help explain it, but geez.
31. New England Patriots (1-6)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: -11 (5)
Yards: 30th
Scoring Offense: 30th
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 31st
Yards Allowed: 25th
Scoring Defense: 23rd
Turns out that defense and offense are good things to have in a football team.
Carolina Tier
32. Carolina Panthers (1-6)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -21 (4)
Yards: 29th
Scoring Offense: 28th
Yards Allowed: 30th
Scoring Defense: 32nd
Sorry. That QD actually enables a separation from the pack.
Teams I rate higher than others / Average spot difference:
49ers (4)
Buccaneers (4)
Bengals (5)
Broncos (7)
Rams (6)
Seahawks (3)
Colts (2)
Giants (4)
Raiders (2)
Teams I rate lower than others:
Texans (6)
Bears (8)
Jets (7)
Bills (2)
Steelers (2)
Jaguars (2)
Goal: Ranking teams as viable contenders to make the Super Bowl. This immediately marks a successful season. This list isn't about regular season performance.
Philosophy: For my goal, I see recent history and quality game performance as most valuable. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's probably the best individual indicator we have to make guesses. I supplement it with a team's performance against the kind of opponents they must jump in the playoffs to make the Super Bowl, and various other smaller factors.
Previous Playoff performance and 5-Year performance get at recent history, while Quality Differential gets at performance in the types of teams you'll see in the playoffs. Record serves as a noisy general signal of performance – I take it into account, but as the least important of the four, since it's so dependent on schedule and luck factors. For a similar reason, I don't use the snapshot of strong and/or weak stats so intensely to rank.
About QD: Normally, 0 on a +/- metric like this is "average", above 0 is good, and below 0 is bad. However, an average team will do somewhat bad against quality foes and somewhat good against bad foes. Only focusing on its hardest games will give a negative outcome. An average QD, instead of 0, is more like -3.
"Passing" and "Rushing" refer to yardage, not including e.g. touchdowns and passer rating.
I group teams into tiers based on where I think the meaningful gaps in quality are. Thus, some tiers will have different lengths. There are more division cellar dwellers than elite Super Bowl contenders, for example.
If you disagree with my list, it's possible you disagree with my goal and/or philosophy. Which like, totally fair, power to you. But my list is naturally going to spring forth from my priorities and the criteria I personally value for it.
Relatedly, I am no expert on every team. If I misunderstand something about your team or accidentally deploy a misleading stat, my B.
Because I value past history so much, which is already said and done, my rankings don't dramatically change from week to week. It makes sense for me to make something like this once or twice a season, not every week.
Philosophy: For my goal, I see recent history and quality game performance as most valuable. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's probably the best individual indicator we have to make guesses. I supplement it with a team's performance against the kind of opponents they must jump in the playoffs to make the Super Bowl, and various other smaller factors.
Previous Playoff performance and 5-Year performance get at recent history, while Quality Differential gets at performance in the types of teams you'll see in the playoffs. Record serves as a noisy general signal of performance – I take it into account, but as the least important of the four, since it's so dependent on schedule and luck factors. For a similar reason, I don't use the snapshot of strong and/or weak stats so intensely to rank.
About QD: Normally, 0 on a +/- metric like this is "average", above 0 is good, and below 0 is bad. However, an average team will do somewhat bad against quality foes and somewhat good against bad foes. Only focusing on its hardest games will give a negative outcome. An average QD, instead of 0, is more like -3.
"Passing" and "Rushing" refer to yardage, not including e.g. touchdowns and passer rating.
I group teams into tiers based on where I think the meaningful gaps in quality are. Thus, some tiers will have different lengths. There are more division cellar dwellers than elite Super Bowl contenders, for example.
If you disagree with my list, it's possible you disagree with my goal and/or philosophy. Which like, totally fair, power to you. But my list is naturally going to spring forth from my priorities and the criteria I personally value for it.
Relatedly, I am no expert on every team. If I misunderstand something about your team or accidentally deploy a misleading stat, my B.
Because I value past history so much, which is already said and done, my rankings don't dramatically change from week to week. It makes sense for me to make something like this once or twice a season, not every week.
Every rank has three parts. The metrics are the primary – but not only – tools I rank by. The snapshot gives a quick-and-dirty picture of what makes a team different, what they're especially good and/or bad at. The commentary contextualizes the other two and adds in other situational information.
I use four metrics. Win-Loss Record, holistic previous Playoff Performance (PP), 5-Year Playoff Appearances & Conference Championship Appearances (5Y), and Quality game average point Differential* (QD). For more on why I chose these, see the hidden blurb. I count "Quality Games" where the opponent has about a 1/3 chance to make the playoffs or more, per NFL.com. I also specify how many quality games a team has played.
For the snapshot, I just use whatever team stats are unusual, interesting, and say something meaningful. I then split up the teams into tiers based on how big of contenders I think they are.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Detroit Lions
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. Washington Commanders
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Denver Broncos
15. Houston Texans
16. Atlanta Falcons
17. Los Angeles Rams
18. Los Angeles Chargers
19. Indianapolis Colts
20. Dallas Cowboys
21. Chicago Bears
22. Arizona Cardinals
23. New Orleans Saints
24. New York Giants
25. New York Jets
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Miami Dolphins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Tennessee Titans
31. New England Patriots
32. Carolina Panthers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. Washington Commanders
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Denver Broncos
15. Houston Texans
16. Atlanta Falcons
17. Los Angeles Rams
18. Los Angeles Chargers
19. Indianapolis Colts
20. Dallas Cowboys
21. Chicago Bears
22. Arizona Cardinals
23. New Orleans Saints
24. New York Giants
25. New York Jets
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Miami Dolphins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Tennessee Titans
31. New England Patriots
32. Carolina Panthers
Heir Apparent Tier
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
PP: Excellent!
5Y: 5/5
QD: +6 (5)
3rd Down %: 3rd
Interceptions Allowed: T-28th
Sacks Allowed: T-29th
Run Defense: 4th
Scoring Defense: 5th
They have made the conference championship 5 years in a row. The only team sniffing that mark has a losing record. They’re undefeated through a daunting schedule. Their conference field is weak. Nothing could dethrone them from here. However, cleaning up the passing offense would be great to take advantage of some rivals weak to that department.
Inner Contenders
2. Detroit Lions (5-1)
PP: Great!
5Y: 1/1
QD: +13 (4)
Yards: 2nd
Scoring Offense: 2nd
Run Defense: 5th
Turnover Differential: T-4th
Field Goal %: T-1st
Stomping ahead to the clear highest quality differential, Detroit has picked up right where they left off last season, when they nearly made the Super Bowl. Their underlying metrics are strong in offense, defense, and miscellaneous, even if Total QB Rating is a bit bearish on Goff. With San Francisco’s troubles, they’re on the inside track to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They barely lost to the 49ers on the road and would love to runback at Ford Field. However, they need to win their division before all that. Knocking off the undefeated Vikings in Minnesota was a great start. A date with the Packers at Lambeau looms large in two weeks’ time. All else equal, they will lead the division with a win and fall to third with a loss. The only knock against this team is a low sample size of greatness, really just last year.
3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 4/1
QD: +7 (6)
Yards: 1st
Total QB Rating: 1st
Rushing: 1st
Run Defense: 1st
Pass Defense: 32nd
Baltimore has a reputation for stomping posers and losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs. There’s no immediate reason to change from either projection right now, especially with their close loss in Kansas City to start the season. Still, every time they get deep into the AFC playoffs is another chance for games to go their way. Getting there should be relatively easy with their dominating performance in perhaps the league’s hardest schedule. They need to keep up the pace, though. 7 games against playoff hopefuls remain, including two dates with the upstart Steelers. They're already in a hole in the race for playoff home field, especially since they lost the tiebreaker to Kansas City, and they might need to run the table to claim the #1 seed. Outright losing the division to the Steelers would be bad and is not impossible, but the favorite is clear.
4. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
PP: Excellent!
5Y: 4/4
QD: +2 (4)
Yards: 3rd
Passing: 4th
Rushing: 6th
Field Goals Attempted: T-2nd
3rd Down % Allowed: 28th
The poor record is more from poor luck than a proper dethroning. Their history and underlying metrics are strong. First, the injury bug tears through them. Then, their balanced offensive attack is struggling to land in the end zone, with a lot of field goal reliance, which may just be fluky. Also, they lost two games to division rivals by a combined 4 points. If some breaks go their way, we instead talk about how the 5-2 49ers nearly lead the conference despite their injuries.
5. Green Bay Packers (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 4/2
QD: +-0 (4)
Yards: 5th
Rushing: 5th
Fewest Sacks Allowed, Sacks: T-5th, T-6th
Fumble Turnover Differential: T-1st
Field Goal Percentage: 30th
On the field, the current Green Bay Packers are somewhere between the middling outfit to start last season and the fearsome unit to end it. A solid, physical core gave a decent start despite Love’s injury. As Love continues to get more comfortable, and the young offensive core develops further, this team could get hot again, especially if their new kicker helps with those field goals. A big question is turnovers. Their T-3rd turnover differential is buoyed by random fumble luck, where they’re +5, and not the less-random interception rate, where they’re only +1. Their turnover luck will likely regress to the mean. Beating Houston despite a -3 differential, though, inspires faith they will survive that.
6. Buffalo Bills (5-2)
PP: Great!
5Y: 5/1
QD: -8 (3)
Total QB Rating: 1st
Scoring Offense: 5th
Scoring Defense: 8th
Fourth Down %: T-1st
Turnover Differential: 1st
The Bills are the other side of the coin as the red-hot Vikings, who they were below in most drafts of this list. The Vikings are in the hell division, the Bills are in fluffy cloud heaven. The Vikings have terrible recent playoff history, the Bills are good there. (4 years since a conference championship appearance makes me hesitate to say "great".) The Vikings are stomping quality opponents, the Bills are not doing that. Both have questionably sustainable scoring efficiency, both on offense and defense. The Bills' perfect fourth down conversions and league-leading turnover differential are also unlikely to continue forever. However, Josh Allen's great play can help explain their lack of turnovers and scoring efficiency despite unimpressive yardage. A star QB is a fantastic asset in the playoffs, and the Bills may need him to excel there. Especially against the Chiefs, who the Bills tend to come up just short on.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)
PP: Good
5Y: 4/1
QD: +1 (6)
Yards: 8th
3rd Down %: 3rd
Fewest Offensive Penalty Yards: 3rd
Scoring Offense: 3rd
Pass Defense: 29th
Tampa Bay has a recent habit of floating around the NFC postseason, taking the role from Atlanta of old. It wasn’t just Tom Brady, as they gave Detroit a solid fight in Ford Field last year. Another playoff game, at home, is very likely from the drab NFC South. However, pass defense is a dangerous weakness to have, since it's usually the most important part of defense. Tampa is relying on little optimizations to crank out points from their offense to compensate, which could leave them susceptible to minor bad breaks in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is a great bet to make it to the divisional round, but advancing further would be tough. If they were in a good division and lacked the inside track to a decent seed, they would not be an inner contender.
Outside Contenders
8. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: +8 (5)
Scoring Offense: 6th
Scoring Defense: 6th
Rush Defense: 2nd
Pass Defense: 30th
Turnover Differential: 7th
The Vikings have a habit of peaking early and dropping off late. There’s no immediate reason to not project the same outcome here. Their point differential is excellent, especially in quality games, but their offense and defense production is not that great in terms of yards, so it’s an open question whether they’ll keep up that gaudy scoring margin. They’re also a bit lucky on fumbles and hauling the most interceptions league-wide, and both trends may regress. Fending off the Packers was nice, but giving Detroit a boost in the head-to-head tiebreaker bites. They’ll probably have to equalize on the road for a shot at the crown. Despite all these flaws, beating quality opponents by a touchdown is an attractive quality, so they deserve a look.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
PP: Poor
5Y: 4/1
QD: -4 (3)
Rushing: 2nd
Scoring Defense: 7th
Fewest Offensive, Defensive Penalty Yards: 4th, 2nd
Fumble Turnover Differential: 31st
3rd Down % Allowed: 27th
The Eagles are an odd bunch. They’re coming off a dreadful playoff flame-out, have a middling quality differential, and are very reliant on “bend but don’t break” defensively. That seems to imply they’re vulnerable. However, they’re a playoff perennial, they’re clearly more composed than the disaster last year, and their horrible fumble luck is likely to regress to the mean, so they have plenty of room to grow. High ceiling, low floor probably gives higher Super Bowl odds than the reverse, because being consistently OK is rarely enough to swipe three playoff games.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/2
QD: -3 (3)
Total QB Rating: 4th
Passing: 8th
Rushing: 28th
Fewest Interceptions: 4th
Fewest Penalties O, OYards, D, DYards: 3rd, 5th, 4th, 3rd
Volatile teams can ride a hot streak into the Super Bowl. The Bengals are comically volatile. Their 5-year is either “missing the playoffs” or “making the Conference Championship.” And they won it once, too. This year, they haven’t won or lost a game by more than 7 points so far, bar “drubbing” the lowly Panthers and Giants by a colossal 10 points. Neck and neck with the titanic Chiefs and Ravens – losing by 1 and in overtime, respectively – yet losing to the dismal Patriots. At home, no less! At least the Patriots was Week 1 and slowly fading into the rearview… but then the Chiefs were Week 2 too. You’d think a good team losing easy and close games might be making silly mistakes, but that doesn’t seem to be it either. Who knows. Go off, kings.
11. Washington Football Team (5-2)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -6 (3)
Yards: 4th
Total QB Rating: 3rd
Rushing: 3rd
Scoring Offense: T-1st
Fewest Giveaways: 2nd
A somewhat close loss in Baltimore suggests this team can play with the big boys. Winning against them is a bit of a sore subject, though. Their gaudy offensive stats come in part from preying on weak squads like Carolina and Cleveland. However, total QB rating does take opponent difficulty into account. If Daniels stays this hot, this team has a solid ceiling. Relying on a rookie QB with little playoff track record is risky business, though. Daniels probably won’t avoid picks like Green Bay Rodgers forever, especially because his protection is more average than not. Similarly, offenses recover fumbles about 55% of the time. The Commanders have recovered 6 of their 7 so far, 86%.
Decent
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
PP: Poor
5Y: 3/0
QD: +5 (6)
Yards Allowed: 8th
Run Defense: 3rd
Scoring Defense: 2nd
Turnover Differential: 2nd
Defensive Penalty Yards: 32nd
Pittsburgh is a defensive stalwart that has a history of making the playoffs. They will probably do that again. They are a middling offensive team that has a history of losing early in the playoffs. They will probably do that again. They’ve faced a solid schedule, with 6/7 quality games, but usually against the bottom rung of the quality baseline. Don’t get carried away by the quality differential. Their most impressive performance is a 13-7 win in Denver, and that’s a more realistic signal of strength here.
13. Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 3/0
QD: +-0 (4)
Passing: 1st
Total QBR: 10th
Rushing: 27th
Run Defense: 28th
Sacks: 8th
The 49ers’ and Rams’ woes have given Seattle a golden opportunity to run away with the division lead. They have not done that, only squeezing one game above the 49ers and Cardinals. Losing head-to-head to San Francisco was especially unfortunate, as they’ll have to equalize that tiebreaker in sunny Santa Clara. Geno Smith’s performance is wonderful, but he doesn’t benefit from a solid, balanced attack on either side of the ball. I still remember when Geno played for the Mountaineers a solid 12 years ago. Gosh.
14. Denver Broncos (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: +-0 (5)
Yards: 27th
Passing: 29th
Yards Allowed: 3rd
Pass Defense: 5th
Scoring Defense: 3rd
Bottom 5 offense is not going to win the Super Bowl. Sorry! If you were in a weaker division, you’d at least have a shot of defending home turf in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have something to say about that. A brutal back-to-back in Kansas City and Baltimore looms. If they can snag one of those, their stock might go up. For now, getting past Wild Card Weekend looks grim, with an unremarkable rookie QB leading a bad offense.
15. Houston Texans (5-2)
PP: OK
5Y: 2/0
QD: -6 (4)
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 29th
Yards Allowed: 2nd
Scoring Defense: 17th
Sacks: T-4th
Fewest Offensive Penalties, Yards: 29th, 29th
Somebody has to win the AFC South. Winning in Lucas Oil was fantastic for that, snatching the lead and the tiebreaker from the Colts for now. They could lose at home this week – they haven’t swept the Colts since 2016 – but there’s a bigger issue. Houston hasn’t shown a higher ceiling than preying on Wild Card visitors. Beating the Bills this season was impressive, but even then, it was a last second field goal at home. Forcing the Packers to come back in Lambeau was impressive, but they needed a 3-0 turnover differential to be competitive. At some point, nitpicking quality performances isn’t super valuable, but Houston is a team that sorely needs an emphatic statement win. If they can use their defensive production to efficiently block scoring, and Stroud goes off, they could do it.
Middling
16: Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -6 (5)
Passing: 7th
Fewest Interceptions Allowed: T-27th
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 8th
Sacks: 32nd
3rd Down % Allowed: 29th
Before last week, the Falcons were in a great spot. They did respectable against an daunting opening 3, clutched out an overtime win against Tampa Bay to angle for the division, and had a 3-game winning streak. Losing by 20 at home to the okay Seahawks is cause for reflection. They don’t have the recent pedigree of their division rivals, so they get more suspicion, and their defensive toughness leaves room for doubt. Still, they’ve had some good games and could surprise.
17. Los Angeles Rams (2-4)
PP: Good
5Y: 3/1
QD: -3 (3)
Yards: 20th
Scoring Offense: 23rd
Yards Allowed: 26th
Scoring Defense: 25th
Fewest Offensive Penalties, Yards: 1st, 1st
The Rams do not look good on either side of the ball right now, but they have a strong recent history and are showing up in big games. Beating the 49ers a month ago and taking the Lions to overtime in Ford Field are highlights. They have what it takes to beat the Vikings at home next week, win in Seattle the next, and vie for the division crown. Both of their elite injuried receivers may be returning, even if they're in talks to trade one. At any rate, they probably won’t pull the turnaround off, but it’s possible. Fun fact: Stafford and Detroit's Goff have basically identical total QB Rating right now.
18: Los Angeles Chargers (3-3)
PP: No
5Y: 1/0
QD: -3 (4)
Yards: 25th
Scoring Offense: 26th
Yards Allowed: 7th
Scoring Defense: 1st
Turnover Differential: T-3rd
The Bolts have a tendency to flag late–note their lacking 5Y–but there’s reason for optimism here if you want it. Top class defense and a workable record against a solid schedule is impressive, and the quality differential is about league average. Next, three lightweight games give them a time to build steam, then the playoff contenders loom. Maybe Herbert can get them into gear. The jury will be out on them for a while, unless they collapse to the Browns and Titans in spectacular fashion, then we’ll probably know.
19. Indianapolis Colts (4-3)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -2 (3)
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 4th
Fumble Turnover Differential: T-1st
Yards Allowed: 29th
Run Defense: 31st
Scoring Defense: 12th
The Colts are primed to regress. They have fantastic fumble luck, their scoring defense looks way too good to be true, and their coming schedule is daunting. Winning this week in Houston, tying the pair's records and head-to-head records, is near-essential for a shot at the division crown. If they lose, they will need to gain 3 games on Houston to coup, and they will immediately head to Minnesota. Next is hosting Buffalo, and two weeks later the Lions. Good luck.
20. Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
PP: Poor
5Y: 3/0
QD: -13 (3)
Passing: 2nd
Total QB Rating: 23rd
Rushing, Run Defense: 32nd, 27th
Scoring Defense: 31st
Average Kick, Punt Return: 1st, 2nd
Dak Prescott continues to accumulate yards, and his team continues to lose spectacularly to good teams. Remember when they were down 41-16 in their wild card loss last season? Or when the Ravens were leading 28-6 this season? Or when the Lions won 47-9 last week? Yeah. All three games were at home, by the way. Also the defense is on fire, as in the bad way. The Cowboys are still an OK bet to make the playoffs, as rivals can fade down the stretch, but it’s hard to imagine a deep run, which they haven’t had since 1995. Some tough games loom down the stretch, but somehow, they all seem to be at home – beside next week’s date against the 9ers.
21. Chicago Bears (4-2)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -6 (2)
Yards: 24th
Total QB Rating: 26th
Scoring Offense: 12th
Yards Allowed, Scoring Defense: 5th, 4th
Turnover Differential: T-3rd
Their record is in line with the other NFC North teams, but underneath the hood they are not. Their offensive efficiency magic is unlikely to last, especially since their schedule has been cupcake thus far. The fairy tale can last until their end of season death stretch. The only team with a losing record in their final 8 is the 49ers (on the road), who are the fakest bad team of all time. Joining them are all six menacing division games, with a “break” of hosting the 4-3 Seahawks. Good grief.
Mediocre
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -10 (6)
Total QB Rating: 5th
Fewest Sacks: T-5th
Passing: 25th
Rushing: 6th
Yards Allowed: 27th
They’re somehow only one game out from the division lead. They have three very winnable games before their first game with the Seahawks, and they barely clipped the 49ers in San Francisco. A 7-4 division leading Cardinals is not impossible, even if the team doesn’t improve a ton. They have an okay two-pronged offense. Overall, they’re materially in control of their destiny, which is more than many teams can say.
23. New Orleans Saints (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: -7 (6)
Yards: 21st
Scoring Offense: 11th
Total QBR: 6th
3rd Down %, Field Goal %: 6th, T-1st
Yards Allowed: 32nd
Poor offensive production and terrible defense is a bad combination. However, unlike some other teams scraping many points out of few yards, the Saints inspire a little more confidence they can keep it up, buoying it with varyingly fickle support beams. Let's not miss the forest, though. Even in the NFC South, a 2-5 start is not it for getting a playoff berth. Losing to both division rivals is also bad, especially by 24. They lost to a last second Younghoe Koo 58 yard field goal in Atlanta, so they could spoil the Birds down the line in New Orleans, if it comes to that. Heck, if they win in Los Angeles next week, they have a soft 5-game stretch afterwards, so nothing is impossible.
Bad
Author's note: I'm evaluating teams as competitors at a pretty bird's eye level. I can squint for the Saints, but these teams aren't competitors, and I'm no specialist at winnowing through micro-level data. Therefore I don't have a ton to say about these teams, and their rankings within this tier are fairly arbitrary.
24. New York Giants (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -9 (6)
Yards: 28th
Fewest Sacks Allowed, Sacks: 30th, 1st
Fewest Penalties O, OYards, D, DYards: 25th, 26th, 29th, 23rd
Pass Defense: 6th
3rd Down % Allowed: 3rd
If you want to squint for hope, see that pass defense and the tough schedule thus far, including a win in Seattle and a last-second loss in Washington. To be realistic, they’re the bottom dog in an unimpressive division. To be spiteful, they’re somehow still above the Jets.
25. New York Jets (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -9 (5)
Total QB Rating, Fewest Interceptions Allowed: 24th, 27th
Rushing: 31st
Yards Allowed: 6th
Pass Defense: 2nd
Field Goal %: 32nd
Pairing Aaron Rodgers with a defense is conceptually neat, but they’re bottom 10 in passing yards, and it's not quality over quantity. Only wins are over the Titans and Patriots. The AFC has room for mistakes, but this team is a stinker.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -11 (4)
Yards: 26th
Yards Allowed: 11th
Scoring Defense: 29th
3rd Down % Allowed: 2nd
Fumble Turnover Differential: 32nd
Maybe their scoring defense bounces up to expectation with that decent yards defense, maybe their fumble luck turns around, and maybe they sneak into the playoffs. And then maybe they move back to Oakland. How awesome would that be, yeah?
27. Miami Dolphins (2-4)
PP: Poor
5Y: 2/0
QD: -16 (3)
Scoring Offense: 32nd
3rd Down %, 3rd Down % Allowed: 27th, 1st
Yards Allowed: 4th
Pass Defense: 1st
Scoring Defense: 14th
Some of these bad teams have impressively stingy defenses. They are still bad. I understand Tua wasn’t playing, but losing by 19 at home to the Titans stings.
28. Cleveland Browns (1-6)
PP: Poor
5Y: 2/0
QD: -12 (4)
Total QB Rating: 32nd
Passing: 30th
Rushing: 29th
Scoring Offense: 29th
Fewest Sacks: 32nd
Turns out you have to move the ball to score points and win. They give up almost 1.5x as many sacks as second place. Their defense is more "middle of the pack" than "elite".
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 1/0
QD: -13 (3)
Yards Allowed: 28th
Pass Defense: 31st
Run Defense: 6th
Scoring Defense: 30th
Turnover Differential: 27th
That run defense is less shiny when it is so easy to bypass. Honestly, it may partially result from teams not bothering to run as much, because they know they can just throw it up.
30. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 3/0
QD: -13 (4)
Yards: 31st
3rd Down %: 29th
Yards Allowed: 1st
Scoring Defense: 21st
Turnover Differential: 31st
Denver fans may be worried how many stinkers share their general stat spread. Although, how on earth do you give up that few yards and that many points? The turnovers help explain it, but geez.
31. New England Patriots (1-6)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 2/0
QD: -11 (5)
Yards: 30th
Scoring Offense: 30th
Fewest Sacks Allowed: 31st
Yards Allowed: 25th
Scoring Defense: 23rd
Turns out that defense and offense are good things to have in a football team.
Carolina Tier
32. Carolina Panthers (1-6)
PP: Missed Playoffs
5Y: 0/0
QD: -21 (4)
Yards: 29th
Scoring Offense: 28th
Yards Allowed: 30th
Scoring Defense: 32nd
Sorry. That QD actually enables a separation from the pack.
| Ado Power Rankings | ESPN Power Rankings | ESPN NFL Power Index | Vegans Super Bowl Winner Odds |
| Chiefs | Chiefs | Lions | Chiefs |
| Lions | Lions | Ravens | Ravens |
| Ravens | Bills | Chiefs | Lions |
| 49ers | Ravens | Bills | Bills |
| Packers | Packers | Packers | 49ers |
| Bills | Vikings | 49ers | Packers (TIE) |
| Buccaneers | Texans | Eagles | Vikings (TIE) |
| Vikings | Steelers | Vikings | Texans |
| Eagles | Commanders | Buccaneers | Eagles |
| Bengals | Buccaneers | Steelers | Bengals |
| Commanders | Eagles | Texans | Steelers |
| Steelers | Seahawks | Bears | Commanders (TIE) |
| Seahawks | 49ers | Jets | Falcons (TIE) |
| Broncos | Bears | Commanders | Bears |
| Texans | Cowboys | Bengals | Buccaneers (TIE1) |
| Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Seahawks (TIE1) |
| Rams | Broncos | Browns | Chargers (TIE2) |
| Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Cowboys (TIE2) |
| Colts | Bengals | Seahawks | Jets (TIE2) |
| Cowboys | Colts | Rams | Broncos |
| Bears | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals (TIE1) |
| Cardinals | Saints | Cowboys | Colts (TIE1) |
| Saints | Rams | Colts | Dolphins (TIE2) |
| Giants | Jets | Jaguars | Saints (TIE2) |
| Jets | Dolphins | Broncos | Rams |
| Raiders | Giants | Saints | Jaguars |
| Dolphins | Jaguars | Titans | Raiders |
| Browns | Raiders | Dolphins | Browns (TIE1) |
| Jaguars | Titans | Raiders | Giants (TIE1) |
| Titans | Browns | Giants | Titans (TIE1) |
| Patriots | Patriots | Panthers | Panthers (TIE2) |
| Panthers | Panthers | Patriots | Patriots (TIE2) |
Teams I rate higher than others / Average spot difference:
49ers (4)
Buccaneers (4)
Bengals (5)
Broncos (7)
Rams (6)
Seahawks (3)
Colts (2)
Giants (4)
Raiders (2)
Teams I rate lower than others:
Texans (6)
Bears (8)
Jets (7)
Bills (2)
Steelers (2)
Jaguars (2)
Last edited:
My gut tells me that the Vikings are too low, but I also can't mount a super strong counterargument based purely on how they did against the Lions. They were only in that game until the end because of a David Montgomery fumble recovered for a touchdown; take away that and Dan Campbell trying a horrible punt fake on 4th and six on the first Lions drive, and it looks a lot more like a rout. Granted, Jared Goff is a well-oiled machine that turns blitz-heavy defenses into mincemeat, so the Flores defense is unlikely to be burnt that badly by many other teams, but it's still a rough performance against the team that you need to be able to get past in order to hold dominion over the conference with the 49ers slipping. Now, imagine how bad it would've been if the Lions had Hutch. Yeah.
Anyway, did you know that the Lions have never beaten the Titans? They were called the Oilers the last time they lost to Detroit. This Lions team is on a streak of breaking curses; hopefully, that'll continue to be the case. Jameson Williams being out for this game and the Packers game because he's collecting suspensions like Infinity Stones is gonna be rough, but I trust the depth of weapons on that offense.
The Vikings bounced around 6-7 in earlier drafts of this list. An interesting philosophical question for this exercise is how, specifically, one evaluates past playoff performance. Besides the Chiefs and 49ers, most prospective competitors are "regularly make the playoffs but don't go deep (Ravens, Bills)" or "had one relevant recent playoff run, but it was a good one" (Lions, Packers). The former camp has a high likelihood of making it to the divisional round, giving them potential to make noise, but we have a (somewhat) larger sample size to predict that they'll regularly struggle there. Even if the Lions and Packers are relying on shorter histories, at least they're not weighed down by a bad history. One could reverse the point of view and say that, because Detroit and Green Bay are relying on such shorter histories of greatness, we don't even know if they'll pass 3rd place in their own division. I'm significantly more confident that the Ravens make divisional than any NFC North team.
The Vikings apply really oddly to this evaluating dilemma. In a sense, they're like a regular season Ravens, consistently putting themselves in good position at midseason but choking from there. However, that means they have less of a playoff history, and therefore less of a bad playoff history to weigh them down. Even in 2022-2023, where they did badly in the playoffs, one can attribute it to a regular season collapse: they went 8-1 to start the season before going 5-3, getting blown out several times and barely skating by middling teams. Thus, we don't have a lot of data on what a "Minnesota that doesn't choke in the regular season" will look like, especially in the playoffs. If this hypothetical team exists, it could be really good in the playoffs, and I can understand people being bullish on them for this reason. If you take out the known choker candidates, take out the not-so-impressive Buccaneers, and are bearish on the 49ers, then the Vikings immediately rise 4, to 4th. I can, like, understand that point of view (and less extreme versions), even if I'm too pessimistic on the Vikings' odds of escaping regular season collapse to embrace it.
I certainly did not know! However...
You may have a spy in your midst!!!
In more serious news, I'm curious how you feel about Total QBR being fairly bearish on Goff. He's currently right around league average, sharing space with our Love, who - as you may know - has been good and capable but not excellent thus far. He seems to be similar on EPA - again like Love - and I couldn't find DVOA statistics with Football Outsider's unfortunate downfall. I'm definitely not a Lions expert or a micro-level expert, so I'm curious if you feel the rating is accurate, and how confident you are with Goff helming in the postseason.
For additional context, Total QBR thought Goff was softly above average last year.
E: That makes sense. Props to them for finding a setup that helps the offense cohere. Appreciate the insight.
Last edited:
I'm not surprised. Goff's past few performances have been MVP-caliber on paper — these Lions are the first NFL team since the merger to have more touchdowns than incomplete passes across four games — but I can see how he'd be devalued by a metric that takes rushing, scrambling, and quality of defense into consideration. Goff poses virtually zero rushing or scrambling threat; the Lions offense is built to make that as minor a problem as possible by using the running back tandem to set up strong play-action situations for him, and while he works very well within that system (did you know that he has a higher passer rating than Mahomes with a clean pocket?), it's rare to see him make magic happen with his legs if a play gets blown up, which will always lead to him being undervalued in the age of Mahomes and Lamar. Plus, with the exception of Brian Flores and his blitzing bunch, the Lions haven't faced the stoutest defenses so far; prior to last Sunday, the toughest defense they went up against was a Bucs unit that lost Vita Vea partway through the game, and Goff's performance in that one wasn't great. He consistently gets it done when it matters most, which is why the Lions organization continues to have so much faith in him, but he can't elevate a team of mediocrities like the very best at the position can. Even as a Lions homer, I'd probably put him in the bottom half of my top ten active quarterbacks.
That said, he should still win MVP. It would be awesome.
The Rams really a "don't lemme catch you lacking" team. they got just as good a chance as any to win the NFC West this year.
And here will come the media talking heads downplaying the Vikings which I feel is unwarranted. Losing to the Lions and Stafford showing out IMO are "Understandable loses" (since all fans gotta expect no matter the team a few losses a year that just contextualize (same as the wins) over the season for better or worse lol).
And here will come the media talking heads downplaying the Vikings which I feel is unwarranted. Losing to the Lions and Stafford showing out IMO are "Understandable loses" (since all fans gotta expect no matter the team a few losses a year that just contextualize (same as the wins) over the season for better or worse lol).
It's also important to note that teams can almost always be relied on to lose the game after they play these Lions. That team beats the hell out of opponents; combine that with the short rest before TNF, and you've got a recipe for a bad time. Is this the start of the second act of the usual Vikings experience? It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it yet.
Lol the Lions banging on teams has been a talking point for awhile, teams like the Jets, Ravens, Saints, Vikings, etc i remember over the years being known as that as well.
It does seem a lil messed up to have to go against the Lions twice in 5 days. *slight troll face but lets be real* tbh, Stafford was the Lions for years.