NOC Low Power Mafia -- Mafia Win

need a votecount.

god it's so confusing i town read everyone who is voting me basically and i want to scum read everyone who who is town reading me. Surely I'm that not off on everything.
a fairy said:
fuck it! content time. im copypasting the userlist and am gonna make myself have opinions translateable to the english language on everyone by the end of this post

1. a fairy
i am town

2. Nuxl
i have positive opinions on this slot right now. i think that btwn them and hal, they're the more likely to end up being a powerwolf leading town, but im not of that opinion yet. i had been of the opinion that the longer they live the less convinced i am of them being town (most mafia teams will want to kill eli) but w/ PR claims and gun claims i'm less convinced this is a viable way to read eli. so i am going to hope that if i end up in xylo with them, that they are town

4. JALMONT
people don't like this slot. im not sure i see why, but i'm also not sure i care enough about this slot to investigate those reasons why im not of the same mind with others. i know the baseline realiti-related reasons, but shrug. i think if i squint and consider whether or not jalmont has been acting like jalmont, i could see myself coming to the conclusion that they're acting differently, but im not motivated to really strongly re-evaluate this slot yet tbh.

5. Alice Kazumi
other people like this slot but i honestly think that's just people feeling comfortable around alice. tho hal's assertation that alice mindmelds w/ them is interesting to me. i dunno. they're probably town, they seem well within their standard playstyle. i wouldn't be surprised if they're scum and are just playing to be friendly and supportive to aim for a deepwolf, but that doesn't seem like what i'd expect scum!alice to act like? unsure.

6. CrreamyKitty
i could see this slot being scum. they haven't done anything to make me think otherwise, but admittedly ive never played with them before tmk. they've gotten on my nerve more than once which speaks more on me than others, to be honest, but the reasons we've come to blows in my mind lean more town than scum. they're probably town, but i'd be less surprised of scum here than scum alice.

7. apricity
closest to townlock in my mind of the people who don't have mechanical reason to be townlocked/NE. if scum hal comes into town swinging immediately on being subbed in and then busses the fuck out of realiti as soon as he saw something suspicious, i'll be fine taking that L. but i dont see a world where hal is scum here between how he acted when he subbed in and being the driving force (NE aside) behind pushing the realiti questions.

8. Ehmcee
unless somoneone CCs the gun, as far as im concerned this slot is locktown. my pulsar defenses paid off question mark emoji

9. Aura Guardian
the more AG posts the more i squint. honestly, above rand chance of rolling scum here. i don't know how to explain it. every time he does something that is summarized to "i haven't read the game results or op!" it feels super performative. i dont know that i could do a wallpost calling him out or whtever, but he's the one i think im most likely to want to vote at baseline

11. bluedoom
this slot should be more active. i can't remember a single opinion bd has held, or a single opinion someone else has held about bd. that makes me wildly suspicious. how are we on what, day 4, and bd still feels like he's at early day2 when it comes to opinion development. why even is that? that feels not great to me, and im suspicious that this is intentional in some way. worrying!

13. des121
people keep saying she's locktown and i swear she's closer to null than she is locktown. yeah! she's probably town! no, she isn't locktown! this is how des always is and if yall think des's default behavior is inherently town, yall are eventually gonna get ruined when des rolls scum. nothing des has done has been particularly towny. all she ever does is ask questions and that is NAI.

14. skippergamez
bro shoved himself into realiti's pocket so so hard, then woke up to realiti flipping scum and went "oops i made a mistake" better disappear." i dont blame him tbh, i'd feel p. embarrassed if i was so in defense of someone only to watch em flip scum, but come on. stay active, stay opinionated. inactive/quiet skip is mafia skip in my mind, even though i know that's a weak meta read.

15. Dead by Daylight
i have no opinion on this slot. i dont know why i have no opinion on this slot. that worries me. if i find the time/energy to do an ISO on any slot, it's probably this one? especially since they've always seemed to be in the POE. i feel like normally DBD is much more present in games, so why do i feel like they kinda don't exist?

16. Lechen
MIA slot. i've complained about this slot enough, but being MIA isn't AI, tbh. im hoping activity picks up soon here but im not confident it will unfortunately. at some point we have to decide what to do with this slot, but it's hard to figure out when that is, always feels like there's slots with stronger opinions about them that feel like they take priority.

18. NightEmerald
they got realiti out. realiti wouldve coasted for cycles had NE not called them out, 100% believe that. they may even have come back to the M2H thoughts and defused the whole reason NE was concerned. if they're mafia, it's a terrible gamble that i don't think is even likely to work.

21. thechickening
im suspicious of this slot. their explanation for hopping on realiti's wagon late felt super weak, and their presence has been low-impact and low-presence, which is what i'd guess of a "oh gods im new here and my first game here is scum" player. i would honestly be surprised if this slot was town honestly at this point, i dont know how much exp elsewhere they have but i wouldnt be surprised if they saw a msg from realiti throwing in the towel in scum discord and just went "bet okay" and did a failed bus

locktown - ehmcee, NE
likelytown - nuxl, apricity, des
leantown - alice, ck, skip
null - jalmont, dbd, lechen
leanscum - bd, chickening
likelyscum - ag
not ordered within categories.
Click to expand...
How is ehmcee lock town? How do you know m2h or AP weren't the original gun holders?
 
JALMONT said:
need a votecount.

god it's so confusing i town read everyone who is voting me basically and i want to scum read everyone who who is town reading me. Surely I'm that not off on everything.

How is ehmcee lock town? How do you know m2h or AP weren't the original gun holders?
Click to expand...
also why are you scumleaning yourself?
 
Votecount 3.5
realiti (7): NightEmerald, Aura Guardian, M2H, a fairy, thechickening, apricity, Alice Kazumi
NightEmerald (4): skippergamez, des121, Duskfall98, realiti

the interesting thing about the NE counter wagon is dusk and presumably skip are town...what's des doing? I mean given des thought NE was still mafia after last night you'd think the scum team would've identified that fact and adjusted accordingly. So almost certainly we have to believe that mafia was on realiti's wagon (or more like just off wagon). The NE wagon didn't really develop for a long time so it's quite possible that was a desperation vote by realiti hoping for a town to try and swap over and it never materialized.

I need to relook at what people have been saying about Alice but definitely feel that vote is one the more likely to be a bus.

Don't really see chickening's vote as a bus. I mean like, yes the timing is random and the vote is kind of out of nowhere but I feel like less experienced players (respectfully) are not just placing a random vote without even worrying about the possibility of hammering, especially at that time in which it wasn't clear realiti was going to go just quite yet.
 
Votecount 4.1
jalmont (7): Alice Kazumi, Dead by Daylight, Ehmcee, des121, Lechen, Nuxl, Skippergamez
skippergamez (2): Aura Guardian, Bluedoom
Aura Guardian (1): JALMONT
thechickening (1): Crreamykitty

Not voting (4): a fairy, apricity, NightEmerald, thechickening

Hammer is at 8.
Let me know if I messed anything up (a distinct possibility!)
 
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JALMONT said:
Votecount 3.5
realiti (7): NightEmerald, Aura Guardian, M2H, a fairy, thechickening, apricity, Alice Kazumi
NightEmerald (4): skippergamez, des121, Duskfall98, realiti

the interesting thing about the NE counter wagon is dusk and presumably skip are town...what's des doing? I mean given des thought NE was still mafia after last night you'd think the scum team would've identified that fact and adjusted accordingly. So almost certainly we have to believe that mafia was on realiti's wagon (or more like just off wagon). The NE wagon didn't really develop for a long time so it's quite possible that was a desperation vote by realiti hoping for a town to try and swap over and it never materialized.

I need to relook at what people have been saying about Alice but definitely feel that vote is one the more likely to be a bus.

Don't really see chickening's vote as a bus. I mean like, yes the timing is random and the vote is kind of out of nowhere but I feel like less experienced players (respectfully) are not just placing a random vote without even worrying about the possibility of hammering, especially at that time in which it wasn't clear realiti was going to go just quite yet.
Click to expand...
hm, so 5 mafia, only 4 votes on ne, 1 is maf, 1 is flipped town, leaving des+skipper. i wouldn't scumread either of them honestly, without this but if either one of them wasn't mafia, realiti could have been saved so, why was he allowed to die. A possibility is that des+skipper are both scum, and thus even with 2 extra scum votes realiti still dies. a bit farfetched, but maybe this is a possibility???
 
sunny004 said:
Votecount 4.1
jalmont (3): Lechen, Nuxl, Skippergamez
skippergamez (2): Aura Guardian, Bluedoom
thechickening (1): Crreamykitty

Not voting (9): a fairy, apricity, Alice Kazumi, Dead by Daylight, des121, Ehmcee, JALMONT, NightEmerald, thechickening

Hammer is at 8.
Let me know if I messed anything up (a distinct possibility!)
Click to expand...
actually i voted for jalmont
 
Because I really fucked up the last one apparently:

Votecount 4.2
JALMONT (7): Alice Kazumi, Dead by Daylight, Ehmcee, des121, Lechen, Nuxl, Skippergamez
skippergamez (2): Aura Guardian, Bluedoom
Aura Guardian (1): JALMONT
thechickening (1): Crreamykitty

Not voting (4): a fairy, apricity, NightEmerald, thechickening

Hammer is at 8.
This should be correct, LMK if anything is wrong.
 
looking at what our dead towns were saying most recently

m2h:

towns - skip?, alice?, apricity? (late votes seemed town on realiti except chickening)

NE, AG, fairy, apricity, alice, bluedoom

nuxl seems fine

null: Lechen, Flanders, pulsar, NE (not hitting town notes)

mafias: thechickening, me?, ehcmee (pulsar since d1 - wait, where did this come from?)

solve was: realiti/flandrs/skipper/ck/fairy if skip/CK are scum

but earlier said this: pulsar (lean town), NE (lean town), DbD (true null), Tommy (true null), CK (maybe a slight maf lean), and skipper (lean town), realiti (biggest scum lean)

dusk:

town: skip

mafia: NE, Me?

scummy enough: DBD

scummiest in the game: realiti jalmont ag ne dbd but moments where AG hypoclaiming was towny

CK townyu?

unfortunately my analysis from this based on overlap is to vote me which i can't do fuck lol.
 
CrreamyKitty said:
Why the fuck is Jalmont at L-1
Click to expand...
do you think chickening is even thinking about bussing? like this is their 1st or 2nd game, they haven't really been in the thread, are they really just coming in and placing a vote on their teammate and going see ya? i still feel like it was too early to just totally give up on realiti. why not just not vote or vote me there instead? that's why for me alice is the much likelier bus vote or maybe apricity but i can't even start to consider that at this point in the game
 
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