good morning. i assume i am going over. i will be voting bluedoom who strikes me as someone going super under the radar and not getting the attention that they need, and is who i think is most likely to have been "inactive maf". i am town. have a somewhat-final thoughts on the playerlist for when i flip town so people can read em back or whatever. please god town don't throw after this. we are at the point where y'all can't make mistakes once im gone, and if maf is even barely competent (they have to be given the PL) they are about to make it a lot harder for y'all.
##Vote: bluedoom
Playerlist:
1. a fairy
i am town
i am town
2. Nuxl
i currently dont have any reason to disbelieve the careful town claim, and it matches up with my pre-suppositions that eli was town. if there's a deepwolf, i really don't think it's here, and i don't think the actual careful town would be not CCing. it's not a garauntee, maybe the careful wolf is throwing by thinking they're more at risk letting a maf claim careful town than CCing, but i dont think that's what is happening here
about eli: if nuxl lives, that's actually a good thing. please do not tinfoil the careful town claim as a lie if maf fsr decides to kill someone else. one user has, this entire game, been solvy and pushing the thread forward, while also having an uncountered town PR claim. please please god if he still lives do not waste even a single breath of the brain wondering if he is scum. you all do not have the time
to eli: was fun playing with you again after however long, see you in the graveyard. looking forward to seeing who the scum are and your reactions. if you live the night somehow, amazing! good luck leading town.
4. JALMONT
hear me out. jal's been under suspicion by plenty of folks over the course of this entire game, but has never been particularly close to going over. i know there was some amt of T/S perspectives with chickening in a pair, and while i don't recall off hand why that perspective was so strong, chickening flipping here makes me have this seed of doubt that jalmont's worth considering strongly here. i dunno. it's hard for me to go like, ah yeah jalmont's more likely to be town because of <reason> other than this nebulous t/s with chickening that im not sure is super real.
about jalmont: it's still hard to force opinions here. most of my thoughts are still similar, but they were always like, summarized, "what the heck is this slot?". i dunno. mathematically this slot almost has to be mafia, right? especially being higher on lechen than i was before his temper tantrum. there's just we're running out of slots to be mafia.
for jalmont: if you're scum, uh, can you TMI rq? ty. if you're town, though, man you sure don't represent it well, "don't vote me, i have something to say but only later" and then i wake up in the morning and can't even remember whatever it was you wanted to say. you're one of the most tenured players on this PL now, you've gotta be doing stuff.
5. Alice Kazumi
so alice was mostly seen as town fmpov due to a hal soulread, but im growing less confident in this one personally. hard to pinpoint any specific incident or group of incidents that alice was particularily towny in, she's kinda just always been present as a sounding board to whoever was trying to make thoughts. but i don't actually know what she's done to make her strongly towny other than following the same lines of logic that hal has.
about alice: if there's a deepwolf/scum that escaped POE (aka, it isnt jal+bd+[des/lechen], it's most likely to be alice. alice hasn't actually done anything other than be herself, and got townread around the PL just off of her positive reinforcement of eli+hal and hal's investment return. please watch this slot with some amount of care, it's not likely to flip scum but it's probably the most likely to outside of the POE. if we're lucky enough to get to the point where we can, consider alice.
to alice: if you are town, you need to be stepping up, as our solve power is about to decrease significantly assuming the Gun is still around and being used correctly (shoot jalmont, gunholder, there is no other reasonable option afaict). you've been trusted throughout the game, it's time to use that trust to put pressure on a soon-to-be-mostly-inactive (shh lechen i get it) poe. do not go gentle into the dark night.
7. apricity
"oh boy here af goes expanding the POE again" yeah well we're at the point where soul reads and gut instincts don't cut it. hal has a strong claim to credit for the realiti vote - not the strongest, but strong. it's hard to see this slot being scum in reality, but i don't want to call this locktown. if there's anyone who would sub into a game, see in scumchat from someone dooming about the NE dossier and went "cool, i'm going to bus you for towncred and then powerwolf" it'd be hal.
about hal: alice should be poe'd before hal. if hal's scum, gg go next i guess, but the solve being hal here is so so so tinfoily as if to be nearly throwing to prefer it over the literal several members of POE plus the few non-poe that need a second look at once poe thins. im sure there are going to be players who want to give this slot a second look, that's fine, but please don't waste too much time concocting some bonkers mafteam where hal saw the NE dossier on subbing in and told realiti it was his time and promptly bussed him. honestly it doesnt sound super unreasonable? but please don't overthink shit.
to hal: i don't hold any animosity for you voting me. i said as much at the start of the day - we have a single misvote. im not happy we're using it up on me, given that any scummy behavior of mine being percieved is inherently weak or trying to backsolve from assuming im maf and looking for quotes that could maybe fit it when squinting (me gaming out what the mafkill/gun flip were before we knew it) flat out wrong (the bonkers claim i was never on chickening) or outright disproven without follow up (the neon vote, the realiti vote delay). i dunno. gl in the solve, friend
8. Ehmcee
im not buying the 1/15 yet. it's not super convincing that it's a locktown mech confirm, but shooting tommy makes sense to me from town ehmcee pov, even if it wasn't an accurate shot. i'm not looking here right now for scum, and i suspect that by the time i'd be ready to look here, the game would be over.
about ehmcee: please don't tinfoil ehmcee here. the maf have not had a free kill since n1, meaning they couldn't have taken out ehmcee for being all-but-locktown. if the maf didnt have the gun for the chickening kill (dont tinfoil they did/could've, it was creamy who shot chickening atp is all but confirmed) it seems so unreasonable to me to then go, oh but this wildly unlikely sequence happened, giving maf the gun to shoot tommy. yes, tommy's a logical kill for maf in this case, but. this ain't it.
to ehmcee: i feel like a broken record but you need to be more active as someone who has a fuctionally all-expenses-paid free trip ticket to the vacation destiny of your dreams. you're all but townlock'd in the eyes of most, you need to be leveraging that into being a solver here. i appreciate you subbing in greatly, but please don't coast.
11. bluedoom
folks? i can't remeber a single notable thing bd has done this game. why? why is this slot just kinda barely present and non-impactful on my memory? their vote history is fine, they go against the current by being on dbd on the realiti day (when you'd expect scum to bus) and then is on chickening the dbd day (which you could maybe see scum knowing chickening was dying by gun tonight for cred ig?), but like when it comes to actual contributions to the gamestate, bluedoom is a blind spot for me. and frankly, at a quick iso glance, i'm not sure i'm the one at fault here for that.
about bd: consider bd!!! this spot is sliding under everyone's radars while also being in the poe? that's exactly where a mafia would be. come on y'all. i get that you're voting me, i get that jalmont needs to be the gunkill if we have it. but please please please take deeper looks at this slot and come to your own conclusions. mine was that bd is scum, which is where my vote is going, but y'all cannot be talking about des or ne or alice without first putting your thesises together on this slot.
to bd: well. if you aren't scum, sorry friend, but i'm flipping town here and i'd hope that at least a few players heed my warnings and look into your slot more. i'd put together your defenses over the night cycle if i was town!you, because flipping town while screaming bloody murder about your name to the sky would hopefully get you some attention you'll need to defuse/defend yourself on next cycle. if you are scum, uh, get voted? ty.
13. des121
we can all agree that des' behavior has changed, right? like it's night and day now compared to the early days where she was questioning everything and poking at people and asking for clarifications. now all she does is come in, like posts, make a post going "if any1 has questions ping me" and does little else. why??? didnt we literally have a conversation with her about how changing behavior is seen as scummy and she was like, oh yeah sounds good won't do that. and then she did it? ik we all got town vibes from her early on but shit's hard to keep giving a pass to her for.
about des: "haha af is mad at a slot nobody scumreads" "haha af is trying to expand the poe to include des bc she doesnt wanna get voted as maf" folks!!!! what has des done since like, cycle 2? des doesn't even post or read the thread anymore, just wanders in going "any1 have qs for me? ping me" and then wanders off for the remainder of the irl day. i'm not saying she's scum here, but i'm saying she's scum here in the most likely outcome (jal, bd, one of des/lechen).
to des: there is an unfortunate side effect of mafia is that you can see who mafia are scared of in most games by seeing who gets NK'd. this is why imaginaryneon survives to the endgame every time, because maf are never worried about him to the point of needing to kill him. i dont mean this as an insult or anything, but you need to start being active and not passive, and need to start solving if you are town. you needed to never become passive, frankly, but please as the words of a dying woman - please get reinvested in this game. you aren't absorbing what is happening in the thread, and that is clearly obvious, this needs to stop now if you want town to win.
16. Lechen
i still think lechen is in the poe, but their behavior this cycle doesn't read to me as confident maf willing to not make it to the end knowing that their allies likely will. they read genuinely as someone who wasn't active early on, picked up in activity, and is being frustrated that they're being compared to the hal/eli slots when it comes to expected activity and not the des/bd/ne slots who have kinda just been mia for most of lechen's active gametime. i know that it's a vibe thing and that it might bite me but lechen was always kinda "in the poe bc of the way poe works" and less "in the poe bc gd that's scummy behavior", and im not sure how many of the reasons still apply.
about lechen: i honestly think his temper tantrum is town AI when he was the most likely vote, but that doesn't mean he should be dropped to the bottom of POE. i think he's more towny than others right now, we have time to not worry too much abt lechen (bc, presumably, scum jal flips overnight to a gun and then scum bd gets voted the next day) but btwn him and des should be the final scumslot, unless folks wanna spend their time trying to find a TMI from alice or whoever.
to lechen: yeah, ill give you that you're getting more active, but if you're town buddy we're at a point where you can't just be defending yourself and only reacting when poked. i get that your tz and some irl stuff impacted your ability to really go back and forth with many of us in the thread, but we need all hands on deck at this point. i still think you have a decent chance at being scum, but if you're town we need more than just reactive content.
18. NightEmerald
if anyone has a locktown keycard without having actually mechanically done a locktown thing, it's NE. i honestly believe more that ehmcee's the 1/15 than i believe that NE decided to bus the fuck out of realiti at the moment he did. like i said with ehmcee, by the time i'd be entertaining other options, the game's likely over anyway.
about ne: we're frankly only alive bc of him. if we never see realiti then chicken never really enters suspicion and we prob spend too much time messing around on CK. if there's scum in the realiti bus (if any of it was a bus) it's not NE. i wish he did more after it, but i mean if you hit it out of the ballpark then nobody's expecting much more of you, ig.
to ne: you posted a bit this cycle, i appreciate this, but shit's about to get real difficult. i don't really expect another dossier, but i won't deny that a bd iso of the remaining near-POE would be helpful for solving the rest of the game. i'd hoped we'd be able to get you to the win without needing you to pull a magic trick again, but if the POE doesn't contain all of the rest of the mafia, it might be helpful to see if there's a missing foundation in Alice's ISO somewhere or something
good luck folks. this is not going to be my last post, lord knows i like empty chatter, but this will probably be the last post of effort i make this game. y'all have this to inform your opinions once i go over as town, make it worth it.