BW OU: elodin vs SoulWind - A classic BW pairing. The two combine for 134 SPL BW games across 17 different campaigns (10 for SW, 7 for elodin). SoulWind has always been the top dog in BW and I think having a fresh season allows him to do a lot that may end up prepared for more later on. You have to respect bulky teams from him more than anyone arguably, but there is no saying when he could break out any of a couple different offensive styles either. elodin is at worst 40/60 against anyone in BW and a clear second tier option (at worst) in any BW pool, but he did seem more passionate about DPP last year and this sadly is the hardest opening draw in the tournament. What to watch for has to be SoulWind's team: will he fall back on the core competency with bulky teams? Feel like we have seen a few more stall/semi-stall sightings from him in modern BW, but he is a target for Magic Guard, Trick, obnoxious breakers, etc., especially if people are willing to cut some corners when building for him. I could see SoulWind starting off with something more proactive to combat this, but I definitely think elodin avoids flimsy Rain or something without durability/clear breaking. Either way, lean SoulWind and probably bolding him until I have a compelling reason not to.
BW OU: Monai vs Rewer - Conflicted here as I have gulped down the full container of Monai kool-aid at record speed pre-season, but Rewer had a strong 2024 and is the conventional favorite. Monai has done very well in smaller tournaments and showed great range in his teams. I have seen him win with everything short of stall and, while there is an emphasis on bulky-offense, he can bring out a lot of different Pokemon and cores within it all. I think he also is much better at picking teams into specific opponents and playing end-games than he was during his 2-7 debut; pair this with the support of BW veteran Raiza and, in my opinion, Monai is a dark horse of this BW field. Rewer has been fine historically and has very crafty support in Brine, but even he will admit he never popped off in SPL BW yet.
BW OU: watashi vs MeEsSm - I do not know what to make of watashi in BW. I do not think he is super passionate about the tier, I think he mainly plays it during a small handful of tournaments, and I am not positive as to how much he follows it during other times. This metagame differs from last SPL's, but it is not super hard to make up the difference at least. What I can say is watashi is a consistently good, but not quite elite, performer in officials who is capable of building his own teams and varying playstyles. This alone probably puts him at a decent record in a shaky BW pool so long as his timing and selection is not bad. I wonder if he ends up elsewhere eventually as I would honestly already rank mars similarly overall though and I think watashi can plug holes that pop up in a variety of generations. Keep your eyes open for mars to make a big impact one way or another though as I rate mars quite high. For watashi though, I think he may be running into MeEsSm at an awkward time. MeEsSm has a much smaller sample and probably a lot more motivation to find a way, especially with his debut being on a team with strong management and high expectations. mars probably knows MeEsSm decently well, but having no SPL or similar data to go off of does mean a lot. I see this as a coming out party for MeEsSm personally, who I expect will use something proactive and look to get ahead earlier on with aggressive plays unless ABR has already corrupted him (or, even worse, Excal has, in which case anything is possible). He is very active in the tier, he will come up with something suited for the occasion, and he will know how to navigate virtually any early game just from recent experience and prep. MeEsSm's resume is kind of lacking for an SPL starter, but what has convinced me has been how comfortable he is taking risks in battle, which I think will translate here. What worries me and what could stand in the way of his first victory is late games -- they have plagued MeEsSm before in invitational and the guy is probably going to feel nervous. Hopefully he stays calm and makes the right decisions, but I definitely think that will be a defininig factor in his rookie season either way. I will bank on him keeping steady and living up to my high hopes for his teambuilding with my vote of confidence here.
BW OU: dice vs Sergio Aguero - I do not know what to feel about Sergio quite yet. He had a really strong 2024 that was capped off with a circuit championship over Sergi, who was arguably the best BW player for a few months between Invitational and Circuit. Sergio's range does not feel quite as established as someone like dice, who he faces, but his plays are clearly at an SPL level. Honestly, I came into the tournament kind of low on Sergio, ranked him near the bottom, and was not sure he would sign-up or be in the field before he joined late after winning circuit, so maybe I just was not fully in the know or maybe I am a hater. But I have done some digging since and am honestly impressed. His HO game in finals against Sergi was downright dominant as he never gave up tempo and sequenced perfectly, he had a similar showing against Raiza prior, and it is hard to poke too many holes into his performance. I do not see him loading anything too bulky here and I wonder if dice will capitalize on that though or if Sergio will expand his comfort zone -- these type of adjustments fascinate me personally. As for dice, if he is in the zone, you gotta bold him here and against most. Preparing for him is nearly impossible, he is no slouch in the builder, and his style just fits the generation so well. I think dice is someone who is most likely to advance the tier with either new cores/strategies altogether or sets nobody else would even consider, so I am hyped for all of his games by default. Will be cool to see what both come up with here.
