NOC Town of Salem 2 Mafia: Revival - WON BY THE MAFIA AND THE WITCH

If I've thought through this correctly, the conclusion I'm coming to is that Alice is always correct* in every scenario. But this just leaves me at a 50-50 on des/dbd still so I guess this doesn't super help us

*As in, if des is lying Alice's results check out, and if DBD is lying Alice's results further support that DBD is lying


don't be fooled by the fact that DBD is guilty in 3 scenarios and des is guilty in 1, it's still 50-50 here, just that there are more variables when DBD is lying than when des is lying
World A: des is lying, so the only transport was Hydro's spot and Roxie's spot by the unknown.
(des is lying about transing)

End arrangement:
Hydro's spot: Roxie
Roxie's spot: Hydro
DBD's spot: DBD

Actions:
The kill was aimed at Hydro's spot.
The trio of DBD/Alice/Roxie's actions fall on Hydro. DBD and Alice's claims check out.

Conclusion: des is lying about transing. All other actions check out.



World B: Hydro's spot and Roxie's spot were transported by an unknown transporter, THEN Roxie's spot and DBD's spot were transported by des.
(DBD is lying about not being transed, AND the other trans is before des in the player order)

End arrangement:
Hydro's spot: Roxie
Roxie's spot: DBD
DBD's spot: Hydro
Actions:
The kill was aimed at Hydro's spot.
The trio of DBD/Alice/Roxie's actions fall on DBD. This means that either DBD's claim or Alice's investigator result is wrong.

Conclusion: DBD is lying about not being transed and about his Lookout claim. DBD/des is TvS *and* DBD/Alice is TvS.




World C: Roxie's spot and DBD's spot were transported by des, THEN Hydro's spot and Roxie's spot were transported by an unknown transporter.
(DBD is lying about being transed, AND the other trans is after des in the player order)
End arrangement:
Hydro's spot: DBD
Roxie's spot: Hydro
DBD's spot: Roxie

Actions:
The kill was aimed at DBD's spot.
The trio of DBD/Alice/Roxie's actions fall on Hydro. DBD and Alice's claims check out.

Conclusion: DBD is lying about being transed, but everything else checks out.



World D: Hydro is lying/hypno'd, so the only transport was Roxie's spot and DBD's spot by Des.
(Hydro is lying/Hypno'd, and DBD is lying)

End arrangement:
Hydro's spot: Hydro
Roxie's spot: DBD
DBD's spot: Roxie

Actions:
The kill was aimed at DBD's spot.
The trio of DBD/Alice/Roxie's actions fall on DBD. This means that either DBD's claim or Alice's investigator result is wrong.

Conclusion: DBD is lying about being transed, but everything else checks out.
 
I’m still more inclined to believe Dbd because why would they make something up two seconds into the day but it also doesn’t make sense for scum!des to lie about their results. So I dunno

Also I’m guessing no one is fake claiming transporter so.

Normally I’d just want to move since we can’t definitevely get an answer one way or the other but I guess in this setup we kind of do need to solve here correctly otherwise we just risk getting overrun by the next morning with bad luck
 
JALMONT said:
I’m still more inclined to believe Dbd because why would they make something up two seconds into the day but it also doesn’t make sense for scum!des to lie about their results. So I dunno

Also I’m guessing no one is fake claiming transporter so.

Normally I’d just want to move since we can’t definitevely get an answer one way or the other but I guess in this setup we kind of do need to solve here correctly otherwise we just risk getting overrun by the next morning with bad luck
Click to expand...
Also a thing about my results when I transported was that one of my targets was already transported.
 
But yes, I am hardclaiming lookout. If transporter gives a notification to a person that they were transported, which I believe it does. I didn’t receive the notification and des is lying.
 
From my napkin math it is fairly significantly less than a 50% chance for there to be two transporters - even in the setup where 1 transporter is guaranteed it's only about 45% chance for there to be two
 
(so: it's completely a possibility, but if it comes to weighing the options completely randomly there's statistically a better side)
 
Miyami~~~ said:
has anyone else actually claimed to be transported besides hyhy, by the way?
Click to expand...
negative

I guess the world where there are 0 transporters technically does still exist

hydro was hypnotized and/or is lying
everyone stays in their original spots
roxie was attacked and cleaned directly
alice is janitor, godfather performed the kill
dbd is real lookout

but this requires both des and alice to be lying, and hydro to be hypnotized or lying
 
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