NOC Town of Salem 2 Mafia: Revival - WON BY THE MAFIA AND THE WITCH

[Celever]

dont you die too cuz i have powerful attack

oh shit I guess that's right, I only gain basic defence

ok lets not do the mutually assured destruction option LMFAO

after I said it in the thread I also went "oh the witch would definitely fuck with that anyway" which yeah, they probably would lol

 

[Lechen]

oh shit I guess that's right, I only gain basic defence

ok lets not do the mutually assured destruction option LMFAO

after I said it in the thread I also went "oh the witch would definitely fuck with that anyway" which yeah, they probably would lol

yeah witch can just send someone on you if ur town

 

[Celever]

yeah witch can just send someone on you if ur town

oh no I meant the witch would redirect you elsewhere

the witch sending someone on me still proves me town which they would presumably be wanting to not happen atm lol

though I'm not sure the witch can(?) win

 

[Celever]

oh the witch just needs the town to lose not to survive in general, shit

 

[Celever]

they can definitely win then I thought they had survivor wincon the entire game LOL

 

[Miyami~~~]

Miyami~~~ we're in setup 3 btw, Hydro was witched last night

what do you think the breakdown is for that setup similar to your solving above?

so uh, I meant to type setup 3 in my post, and the information in there is for setup 3 not setup 4. I did forget the killing role in my post I think but everything else should be good. (Hyhy, alice, dbd, evie) cannot be town since I know I am.

With the massclaim it'd have to be

Spoiler

Town Investigative (Me, Alice, DBD, Hyhy, Joey)
Town Protective (Jalmont, Roxie? We've spent the entire game assuming Roxie was doctor but we don't actually know, AirC)
Town Support (des121, ECat, Evie)
Transporter (des121, ECat, Evie)
Town Investigative (Me, Alice, DBD, Hyhy, Joey)
Town Killing (Celever, Lechen)

Random Town
Random Town
Random Town

this means that two of <myself, alice, dbd, hyhy>, plus <evie, jalmont, celever, lechen, joey>, are all vying for three spots here. I know I'm taking one of them, so that leaves two spots for everyone else.

Of the claimed roles, I think joey's tracker claim is the most suspect for the same reasons he himself was throwing shade on dbd a few days ago.

do you play a lot of mafia?

this is my first ever game. I spent a lot of day 1 just trying to play devil's advocate in hopes of finding something, since I don't know meta or how anyone plays. I also spent a lot of day 1 trying to figure out how to solve the 50/50 I had between a fairy and airc from my results and it ended up just falling into my lap at the very end, hence my totally random vote. At worst, it would confirm airc not town if she flipped town.

 

[Alice Kazumi]

setup 4

I think it's extremely unlikely we're in this setup but here's what our town would have to look like

Town Investigative (Me, Psychic)
Town Protective (Roxie?)
Town Support (Des/Ecat, Transporter + Evie, Claimed Transporter)
Random Town (Des/Ecat, Transporter + Evie, Claimed Transporter)
Random Town (AirC, Trapper)
Random Town (DBD/Alice/HyHy, claimed investigative)
Transporter (Des/Ecat, Transporter + Evie, Claimed Transporter)
Town Investigative (DBD/Alice/HyHy, claimed investigative)

Mafia Killing (?)
Mafia Support (?)
Mafia Deception (Aura Guardian, Hypnotist)
Mafia Deception (Unknown Janitor)

Neutral Killing (A Fairy)
Witch (?)

this would leave us in a position where two of DBD, Alice, Hyhy, and Evie are directly not town, as there isn't even an unknown town role in this setup that could hold one of these claims. Once again celever jalmont joey and lechen would also all have to be not town as well

in short, I know hyhy wants to just handle it but I have a bad feeling in my stomach and voting joey would be our best option today, imo.

I got lost in the math here. How do you end with 2 of DBD, Alice, HyHy and Evie are not town but also Celever, Jalmont, Joey and Lechen being not town. That's 6 players for 4 slots.

On the morning of day 4 (when Miyami would've claimed this vision to Hydro) there were only 2 confirmed townies that could've been in the vision (Des/hydro). Assuming the rng picks one evil to go in the vision first, the chance of those two conftowns being in the vision with the evil is 2/11*1/10 = .018 or 1 in 55

Which of course is not impossible odds but would be a huge coincidence

I mean in Tos1 we were debating if fakeclaiming psychic because it seemed pretty good. That being said if Miyami is scum it's likely she is on that same pool. She seems to be invested in this enough to not notice 2 investigators and not claiming from the result pool. I think Hydro investigation result matches on that. Now that I think about it did hydro even claim investigator before Miyami claimed psychic?

me and Hydro just had a conversation and he's not doing it yet he's doing it later, but I think it's worth notifying town of what he intends to do

which is post everyone's information in the thread and we can go back to playing NOC as an informed majority, following a massclaim

I'm also fairly confident he miscleared Alice and that's why things went goofy. It's not 100% or anything, but Alice was added to towncore just bc she was targeted with a hypnotist that got transported onto ECat, and as I said to Hydro, in a setup with 3 transporters it's actually entirely possible / probable that scum would self-target with hypnotist. It makes substantially more sense than Miyami psychic-claiming their scumbud out of the game, and at the moment that's the solve LMAO

After Aura Guardian being quite disappointing when he was accused this is quite refreshing... but also being tested twice in a row and not showing your role only to then come up with this is quite bold.

Hydro thoughts

- uhhh yeah. sorry for not townleading very well you guys. i thought it was a good idea to do this since we're mylo so. nothing to lose
- One of Lechen/Celever has to be town due to Town Killing claims
- Both have dubious claims, like how did AirC not die, and wtf happened to joey N4 to cause Lechen to fail because . too many people targeted Lechen??
- Idk I deleted a bucnh of rambling because the possibility of alice being a mole kinda nullifies them :/
- sorry again i wont be using my brain on mafia for the few hours that are left of the day for me. i will tryto contribute tomorrow. i hope you all a smart enough to solve this for it seems my brain is not for mech

Can you elaborate in your thoughts that got nullified because I'm apparently a mole?

oh we outed a doctor that's

actually kinda fine we have transporters GG

We have only one left so it's not as simple as before.

ok some first analyses and thoughts:

we're in Confusion Delusion, this is the breakdown:

Town Investigative -- Hydro (99%)
Town Protective -- AirC (100%)
Town Support -- des (100%)
Transporter -- ElectricityCat (100%)
Town Investigative -- DBD (99%; was transported with ECat last night who died, verified by transporter and Alice's alleged target)
Town Killing -- Celever / Lechen (~50% but ofc FMPOV it's Celever 100% and I think there's good evidence I'm real which I can go into if desired lol)

------------------------

Is that helpful? Sort of. It means we don't have to deal with these smaller pools of claim combos and work out probabilities and stuff. All remaining town are in the 3 Random Town slots. Speaking of.

Random Town -- Evie (99%)
Random Town -- roxie (100%)

So we've got 1 left.

So the remaining players are:

Alice Kazumi (claimed investigator, easy mafia version of this in consigliere)
joey (claimed tracker, easy mafia version of this is recon)

One of these is probably the Mafia Support slot in the Confusion Delusion setup. At the very least, if mafia have been claiming roles across each other to spread more confusion, their results mean that only one of them is scum using the results of the Mafia Support role.

JALMONT (claimed doctor, common mafia fakeclaim)
Miyami (claimed psychic, pretty challenging mafia fakeclaim but possible)
Lechen (claimed archer, totally unproven and pretty easily could have been proven)

--------------------------------

Not to sound complacent or confident but we have an 80% shot of shooting scum, at least FMPOV. If we want to leave Lechen til last and wait for him to shoot someone (which won't happen lol), it's a 75% shot. We do not vote myself or Lechen out because one of us has to be town, that's 50% odds.

The only thing we had to do is not vote out the town between [Lechen], Alice, joey, JALMONT, and Miyami, and we are progressing forward.

You are eliminating quite quickly the chances of mafia self-shooting. In hydro case in n1 it didn't make sense but here is reasonable because of a relatively small number of players and too many clears.

I'm not sure why you think mafia is claiming roles across each other when there are investigator claims.

one thing im confused about is how airc didnt die n3 since celever supposedly went on alert and airc would have visited them when they set a trap

That's were the problem is with both town kill they are both scummy. His defense is that dead town didn't do as town leader said, which as a newbie is crazy.

I don't really understand why everyone started talking in the thread and by everyone I'm referring to a select few people prior to Hyhy deciding to open up discussion. not that it matters but I am (was?) strongly against opening the thread because I think it's just way too easy to for mafia to start talking lots of nonsense and negatively influence decision making

like we could've just had these posts done in PM without alerting the world to what's going on

of course this was all assuming hyhy could be trusted which I guess is not entirely the case anymore or idk??? I don't really understand town of Salem and don't really have the time to try understand everything so yeah. I'm not really privy to how the people in charge have been doing things so I guess if they are struggling then I respect the decision to open up conversation even if I disagree

Don't you love NOC

0%, they targeted themself according to DBD (close to conftown's) result which solely a doctor is able to do

I forgot about that til you reminded me actually lol

This is blatantly wrong unless I'm misremembering.

DBD watched roxie which got transported to hydro and saw me and roxie in it. I thought we had already solved this long ago. Roxie's target was hydro.

 

[Alice Kazumi]

This is blatantly wrong unless I'm misremembering.

DBD watched roxie which got transported to hydro and saw me and roxie in it. I thought we had already solved this long ago. Roxie's target was hydro.

Wait I just wrote this and got confused let Alicebrain work for a minute

 

[Alice Kazumi]

Nevermind I'm dumb he did self target. It's 0 then

 

[Alice Kazumi]

There are actual posts to read

 

[Miyami~~~]

I got lost in the math here. How do you end with 2 of DBD, Alice, HyHy and Evie are not town but also Celever, Jalmont, Joey and Lechen being not town. That's 6 players for 4 slots.

I worded it weirdly but it's less "not town" and more "cannot all be town within the confines of the setup". I do not think all six of you are not town, but I do know joey is c:

 

[Celever]

oh ok Alice is mafia I'm glad that's cleared up lol

 

[Alice Kazumi]

I worded it weirdly but it's less "not town" and more "cannot all be town within the confines of the setup". I do not think all six of you are not town, but I do know joey is c:

Ah thanks for the clarification that makes more sense.

oh ok Alice is mafia I'm glad that's cleared up lol

I don't know how you reached that conclusion but no problem!

 

[Celever]

After Aura Guardian being quite disappointing when he was accused this is quite refreshing... but also being tested twice in a row and not showing your role only to then come up with this is quite bold.

I was tested once in a play I designed with Hydro myself, AirC flopped by targeting elsewhere but I can't blame him because town leadership was trying to make town kill town (I wonder if a mole helped with that!). On N1 I went on alert bc I'm an obvious namekill and died N1 last ToS so wanted to not do that again, but no one targeted me nor did they claim to.

I'm not sure why you think mafia is claiming roles across each other when there are investigator claims.

Because mafia need to claim within investigator pools and the town and mafia version of roles are in different pools

You are eliminating quite quickly the chances of mafia self-shooting. In hydro case in n1 it didn't make sense but here is reasonable because of a relatively small number of players and too many clears.

Sure, perhaps mafia could do this if there's a mole in the leadership who know where all the transporters are going, otherwise it would never make sense to do this. You cannot predict what transporters are going to do, it is always far better to target town, usually kill that town, and if not hopefully get transported onto also town with a slight chance of it being mafia, than it is to target your scumbud, usually kill your scumbud, and then sometimes target town instead or maybe get transported onto another scumbud

 

[Celever]

I understand why Alice would come in hot on me because I lowk razed her whole moling the town leadership thing with one conversation with Hydro but that post was very outing lol

 

[Alice Kazumi]

I understand why Alice would come in hot on me because I lowk razed her whole moling the town leadership thing with one conversation with Hydro but that post was very outing lol

I think you got some idea in the head and are hard tunneling me for some reason. I don't see any difference from my standard catch ups

 

[Celever]

I think you got some idea in the head and are hard tunneling me for some reason. I don't see any difference from my standard catch ups

I'm not hard tunneling you, prior to that post I had you as approx 50% town up with joey from the mech solving and I was fairly agnostic on who was the town there

I just think that was an outing post lol

 

[Alice Kazumi]

I haven't said anything about Alice, I do have some thoughts but I'm keeping them to myself especially due to what has already been said about them until I Hear from them

Can you tell now that I heard from me?

I have a crackpot theory actually

Tell me if this is stupid or disproven somehow

Nobody claimed witched day 1, this means that either an evil was witched and didn't claim it or Roxie was witched and died.

If we consider the world where Roxie was witched n1, they could be any visiting role and don't have to be doctor

I think this opens up several possibilities but the one on my mind is this:

Roxie was Archer. We know DBD, Alice, and Roxie all visited the same target so that would result in no Archer kill. Celever and Lechen are BOTH fakeclaiming TK because they know that no matter what one of them is going to be cleared when the other flips evil, because there has to be a TK

This explains why both Lechen and Celever seem to have results that have direct contradictions with the other actions

I didn't understand any of this

 

[Alice Kazumi]

I'll be honest Celever I didn't had my best day so me logging in to only get randomly accused of being a mole annoys me. Especially when we are 1 mislynch away from probably losing unless Evie saves us.

I also don't rly think celly is scum due to his claim- (why would he claim a unique role that kills rather then retri or smth)

I think you are in a 50/50 with him due to mechanics so if you don't think he is scum then what?




- So Celever / Lechen is a 50/50 both of them look equally scummy mech wise. I don't think one of them got the random town slot because then what is happening with these actions. I Still don't get both misses.
- DBD has low chance but mafia self-shooting is a possibility. I wish he played now that we seem to return to NOC.
- Unless mafia is capable of doing magic Evie is confirmed town.
- Hydro is town I don't think mafia self-target and cleans N1 for no reason.
- Miyami could be reasonably scum based on the convenient claims. I do hope she is town because she is playing quite well.
- Joey not dying is ?? Him saving Evie is the best point he has for being town but otherwise pretty low in the list.
- I mean his target didn't die but that doesn't save Jalmont from being in the poe.

I'm not sold on solving the 50/50 right now

 

[joey]

I think this is everything we can draw from the role list from an objective POV

And every POE/5050 member can add themselves and draw more logic from that but nobody really cares about each other's POVs

To narrow this down further I think we will need to make reads, I'm planning on going back and looking at the d1 wagons since that's kind of the only gameplay we had that didn't take place in the towncore

Roxie is Doctor or any non-TK town role

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Celever or Lechen (Vet/Archer)
TS - Des (trans)
Trans - Ecat (trans)
RT - Roxie (Doctor or anything else that can visit)
RT - Evie (trans)
RT -

DBD (Lookout/Recon)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
Celever or Lechen (TK or any evil)
JALMONT (TP or any evil)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT among Celever/Lechen, DBD, Alice, JALMONT

Roxie was Archer

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Roxie (Archer)
TS - Des (Trans)
Trans - Ecat (Trans)
RT - Evie (Trans)
RT -
RT -

DBD (Lookout/Recon)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
Celever (Veteran or any evil)
Lechen (Archer or any evil)
JALMONT (Doc or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT among DBD, Alice, Celever, Lechen, JALMONT

Roxie was mafia

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Celever or Lechen (TK)
TS - Des (Trans)
Trans - Ecat (Trans)
RT - Evie (Trans)
RT -
RT -

Celever or Lechen (TK or any evil)
DBD (Lookout/Recon)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
JALMONT (Doctor or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT between Celever/Lechen, DBD, Alice, and JALMONT

 

[Celever]

I think this is everything we can draw from the role list from an objective POV

And every POE/5050 member can add themselves and draw more logic from that but nobody really cares about each other's POVs

To narrow this down further I think we will need to make reads, I'm planning on going back and looking at the d1 wagons since that's kind of the only gameplay we had that didn't take place in the towncore

Roxie is Doctor or any non-TK town role

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Celever or Lechen (Vet/Archer)
TS - Des (trans)
Trans - Ecat (trans)
RT - Roxie (Doctor or anything else that can visit)
RT - Evie (trans)
RT -

DBD (Lookout/Recon)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
Celever or Lechen (TK or any evil)
JALMONT (TP or any evil)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT among Celever/Lechen, DBD, Alice, JALMONT

Roxie was Archer

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Roxie (Archer)
TS - Des (Trans)
Trans - Ecat (Trans)
RT - Evie (Trans)
RT -
RT -

DBD (Lookout/Recon)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
Celever (Veteran or any evil)
Lechen (Archer or any evil)
JALMONT (Doc or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT among DBD, Alice, Celever, Lechen, JALMONT

Roxie was mafia

TI - Hydro (Invest)
TI - joey or Miyami (Tracker/Psychic)
TP - AirC (Trapper)
TK - Celever or Lechen (TK)
TS - Des (Trans)
Trans - Ecat (Trans)
RT - Evie (Trans)
RT -
RT -

Celever or Lechen (TK or any evil)
DBD (Lookout/Recon)
joey (tracker/recon) or Miyami (Psychic or any evil)
Alice (Invest/Consig)
JALMONT (Doctor or any evil)

joey/Miyami are 1t 1s competing for TI slot
There are 2 RT between Celever/Lechen, DBD, Alice, and JALMONT

DBD was targeted with the nightkill last night, and is a TI, why are you putting that as you/Miyami

 

[Celever]

why are joey and Alice both claiming scum with the posts on this page I solved one of you as the last town

 

[joey]

DBD was targeted with the nightkill last night, and is a TI, why are you putting that as you/Miyami

I put me/Miyami because one of us is guaranteed* to be a TI while there's still a chance that Mafia was informed and self-targeted to kill Evie.

*Granted I guess you can't objectively say me/Miyami isn't s/s but I feel like that's not on the table

 

[Celever]

I put me/Miyami because one of us is guaranteed* to be a TI while there's still a chance that Mafia was informed and self-targeted to kill Evie.

*Granted I guess you can't objectively say me/Miyami isn't s/s but I feel like that's not on the table

that's highly on the table why would it not be on the table

 

[joey]

to kill Evie

*Ecat