Metagame SV RU Metagame Discussion (April Shifts #403)

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AOA Torn-I has been the standard, but Metallica pulled out an NP torn which broke Feen's team open in the midgame, letting him win much easier later on.
To expand on Tornadus, I'm starting to realize that it takes a lot of the niche that NP Thundurus had, perhaps even better. It has better damage, the same speed tier and perhaps even better coverage. While Thundurus had to use multiple coverage moves, Tornadus can get it done with just focus blast. +2 focus blast does over 75% minimum to max spdef Goodra and it just so happens that our neutral Spdef wall (umbreon) is weak to fighting as well. Only needing two attacks means that you can either be boring and use heat wave or dark pulse, or you can be cool and run a utility move. I have been ruined by NP+substitute on ladder a few times because it just trades with 1.5 mons minimum if you switch out as it clicks sub, and sub also works well for prankster shenanigans. If they try to revenge kill with a scarf gapdos, if you click sub then you have traded 25% hp for information, and can now either tera steel to resist their brave bird, switch out or stay in because you see they clicked u-turn like a fool. Taunt is another option that can just break some walls even if they are able to 1v1 you. An umbreon at 40% might as well be dead. And then there are all the other annoying filler options that make the retched genies so annoying. Knock off and u-turn allow you to weaken something or keep up momentum early on and then come back later to sweep, and tailwind has the chance to do something funny. Of course the big drawback is that your most accurate move is 80%, not ideal.

If Tornadus really is the future, I'm looking forward to someone bringing the ultimate torn wall and winning an RUPL game. Make someone forfeit when they see bleakwind storm do 0 damage.
:sv/brambleghast:
 
WOOOO, USAGE STATS TIME.

:pmd/mew: Okay, we actually got something, because if we didn't, I wouldn't be making this post. Mew is a classic case of jack of all trades, master of none. Main sets are going to be NP mew, spike stack mew and hazard lead mew. None of these sets will be amazing, but another option in the tier will be very nice.

:pmd/feraligatr: #youtuber_gets_bad_mon_to_rise. Okay, feraligatr isn't that horrible, but it rising to RU isn't on my bingo card. Main issue with it is that gyarados is just better. Moxie allows gyarados to snowball better, its defensive utility is better with its typing and good special defense, and while feraligatr has higher power, power isn't everything.

:pmd/gyarados: Speaking of gyarados, yeah, this is a good ass mon. Resto chesto can setup on a lot of defensive pokes really easily, while 3A is still deadly. Just a good allround HO mon.

:pmd/oricorio pom pom: Pom pom is one of those 'bitch mons', where its not broken, but oh fucking boy, it will make you tear your hair out facing it. It has two sets, the dual stab set which uses tera ground or fighting to make revelation dance hit mons such as goodra and registeel, while taunt sets made defensive teams living hell.

:pmd/registeel: Feli would be proud rn. Registeel has shown itself to be one of the best defensive steels in the tier, with ID+BP being an insane wincon while still being able to get up rocks or paralysis something with thunder wave.

Top 10 usage stats (I ain't giving reasonings, its 2 am for me)

:zapdos galar:
:cyclizar:
:bisharp:
:weezing galar:
:volcanion:
:goodra hisui:
:salamence:
:jirachi:
:slowbro:
:armarouge:
 
WOOOO, USAGE STATS TIME.

:pmd/mew: Okay, we actually got something, because if we didn't, I wouldn't be making this post. Mew is a classic case of jack of all trades, master of none. Main sets are going to be NP mew, spike stack mew and hazard lead mew. None of these sets will be amazing, but another option in the tier will be very nice.

:pmd/feraligatr: #youtuber_gets_bad_mon_to_rise. Okay, feraligatr isn't that horrible, but it rising to RU isn't on my bingo card. Main issue with it is that gyarados is just better. Moxie allows gyarados to snowball better, its defensive utility is better with its typing and good special defense, and while feraligatr has higher power, power isn't everything.

:pmd/gyarados: Speaking of gyarados, yeah, this is a good ass mon. Resto chesto can setup on a lot of defensive pokes really easily, while 3A is still deadly. Just a good allround HO mon.

:pmd/oricorio pom pom: Pom pom is one of those 'bitch mons', where its not broken, but oh fucking boy, it will make you tear your hair out facing it. It has two sets, the dual stab set which uses tera ground or fighting to make revelation dance hit mons such as goodra and registeel, while taunt sets made defensive teams living hell.

:pmd/registeel: Feli would be proud rn. Registeel has shown itself to be one of the best defensive steels in the tier, with ID+BP being an insane wincon while still being able to get up rocks or paralysis something with thunder wave.

Top 10 usage stats (I ain't giving reasonings, its 2 am for me)

:zapdos galar:
:cyclizar:
:bisharp:
:weezing galar:
:volcanion:
:goodra hisui:
:salamence:
:jirachi:
:slowbro:
:armarouge:
sniped me


Anyways, April shifts are out:

+ :mew:

- nothing!

The tier doesn't really change much other than having Mew back, which is always a welcome. At the moment we are suspect testing Zoroark-Hisui and would like to see how the tier develops onwards.
 
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Post H-Zoro ban, we still have stuff to talk about for both tiering, and winners/losers of the ban. So let's go in reverse, with the winners and losers.


Winners
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Mimikyu and Gengar both like seeing the Ghost type competition slim, and their ability to actually click ghost moves is less risky. Mimikyu especially since it couldn't sneak H-Zoro to break games open. Krook appreciates its burden of being a dogshit ghost resist lessened because lord knows it can't switchin on a singular fucking ghost not named Golurk in this tier. Luke likes its espeed spam gameplan being a bit easier to pull off, and Infernape just likes seeing the tier slow down a little bit with H-Zoro gone from the picture. Frankly, not a ton changed in the actual builder but the ability to play the video game got alot easier.

Losers
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The War Crime Trio kicks off the losers, as H-Zoro Gap Bish was one of the dumbest fucking cores I've ever seen in an RU tier, while Volcanion Mamo disguise memes were also disgusting. Though unlike the others, Mamoswine isn't good :totodiLUL:
Cyclizar sees less reason to be forced onto some teams, though honestly its not that much of a loser here since Cyclizar's entire thing is soft check a ton but actually beat next to nothing, this just eased its strain a bit. Though it does get forced in less.

Now that that part is out of the way, lets talk tiering. Odds are, after Week 7 is done of RUPL we gonna get a survey. As for who should be on it? Let's get their names on the board.

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Most of these are self-explanatory. Volcanion is a piece of shit and by leaps and bounds the dumbest mon in the tier. If this thing wants to beat something, it simply will. No discussions, it'll beat what it wants to. It can't beat everything at once, but it gets absurdly close with the Tera fairy taunt set. The uptick of Gastrodons hurt it, but honestly tera fairy beats that shit too so. Cyclizar and Goodra get body pressed, Slowbro gets taunted, Noivern and Mence get Tera blasted (same w Bike), Volcanion earth powers itself you get the picture. The strain it forces is honestly ridiculous to deal with, and it basically takes atleast 1 kill in most games its in, if not more. The item customization its been seeing lately also makes it annoying, with stuff like Custap being something to worry about. And don't get me started on healing wish top-ups for this thing..

Bisharp has been getting called broken for over a damn year and its still here, but I'd still pick Volcanion first before it. Mon is dumb as hell though. Armarouge too, on a lesser extent. Personally I find armarouge to be fine, but I also think it probably belongs on every survey because of how it is and performs. PomPom is just dumb, and I know absolutely nobody will come to its defense. Lame ass mon who can just auto-win some games but beyond that its just annoying, not much more than that. Suicune & Gyara are mostly padding, but they do receive a decent bit of complaints about how they run games over on occasion with very little resistance. Frankly, low priority picks but I think they probably can go on there without much fuss.
 
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Gonna add that I absolutely agree with LBN's takes on the meta. It's definitely better post-Horoark but Volcanion has to go. It's one big "guess my coverage" mon, and it's a massive pain to build against, with most of its "checks" getting assblasted one way or another. One of the biggest anti-ban arguements I see is that Gastrodon stops it damn well; while it's a good check, Gastrodon suffers from being passive and exploitable and it struggles against Tera (Fairy) and Taunt anyway. Forcing every non-offense team into using one mon is also rather unhealthy and stifles development; I believe a similar situation was observed with Dracovish and Seismitoad back in SS OU.

:pmd/armarouge:
I think Armarouge is a somewhat bigger concern than Bisharp so I'll talk about it first. Armarouge is slightly more linear than Volcanion but still has many of the same issues; it's nigh-impossible to defensively check and if you incorrectly guess what it's running (Weakness Policy vs. Calm Mind, coverage, etc.) you're as good as dead. It has more defensive counterplay than Volcanion, but not by much.

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Bisharp is also a concern but not as high priority; I think it brings more positives to the tier than Volcanion or Armarouge (Sticky Web deterrent, priority + cleaner for a variety of structures), but on the other hand it does make hazard removal more difficult thanks to Defiant, which given the tier's already-shoddy removal options puts it on my shitlist.

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Ok so I'm appending this post because my opinion on Suicune has changed since I wrote this; this mon is just plain unfun to fight. Pretty much every opposing CM user is forced to run Psyshock to beat it and its amazing natural bulk means that it can find setup opportunities very easily. While it can in theory be crippled by Knock Off, most knock users don't want to come in on it because of Scald's burn chance, and even then Rest sets are gaining steam. I'd say look at this after Volcanion leaves the tier, because Suicune's one of the scant few mons that can actually take it on.

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I don't have a whole lot to say about these guys so I'll keep it brief. Oricorio barely brings anything good to the tier apart from being a flimsy Gapdos check; between its variable coverage, Tera + Revelation Dance mechanics, and Quiver Dance being the dumbest boosting move known to man, it's an annoying cheese mon that, while not as defensively unmanageable as the two Fire-types above, won't be missed if it's banned. With Air Slash flinches it's basically Dollar General Yanmega. Gyarados is less of a concern atm; it's basically Tera reliant DD Salamence, but could be problematic in the future so maybe keep an eye on it
 
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Week 6 usage stats are live, so now lets delve into some of the developments that've taken place since my last talk bout this (I've been busy, sick and lazy to bother doing it each week like i intended so..)

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Bulky tera normal facade salamences have been seeing some use, able to just delete G-Weez as counterplay and greed for lefties over something like lum or a forced tera fire to deal with G-Weezing. It's nice because of how normal/ground is already amazing offensively for covering most stuff similar to ground/flying, but takes care of one of Bulky DD Salamence's main flaws, status and helmets. I wouldn't say its staple territory just yet, but it has been seeing a good amount of use.

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Now, QD Taunt pompom is not a new trend. What IS a new trend is people using relevation dance over air slash and just using tera flying for power and added flexibility. Now, I speak for ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE when I say the last fucking thing this mon needed was more fucking strategic depth. QD Taunt was fine because I could send in my steel and it'd take ten years to fucking kill it. This ruins that quite handedly, and I'm not gonna say I think this set should get this thing quickbanned before open... but I think this shit should get quickbanned before open. Genuinely a cancer-sore on the tier at this stage that nobody actually defends. You can definitely make the argument to quickban it, so at the very least consider the route of QB pompom into survey. If there is a singular pompom defender on this playerbase please make yourself known I'd love to encounter an endangered species with my own eyes.

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After work every day I usually walk 30 minutes to get home. Last shift when it was raining i stepped in some mud, shrugged and moved on with my day. And that singular interaction had more impact than terrakion does this RUPL. And it's not surprising to see honestly. H-Zoro Gapdos cores were probably the hardest for Terrak to deal with; because it didn't and it couldn't. And even when they didnt come, you have slowbro's, hippowdons, gligar's and HO teams it also can't really deal with; and that's not listing Weezing either. For comparisons sake, Kleavor, Azelf, and Forretress. For applications these 3 are, to me quite comfortably the worst 3 mons in RU. And these have 4, 4 and 6 uses respectively. Don't ask me why, but they do. Forretress atleast has real utility don't ask me what the hell the other bums are getting used for. This dogshit A- on the VR LMFAOOOO

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Now these are two pokemon who have zero business getting only 1 use each. They are being surrounded by Venusaur, Cinccino, Alcremie Rainbow Swirl like some real dogshit. And the fact these two only have 1 use can only be described as hateful. Golurk is still solid; maybe a little worse than its prime but H-Zoro leaving should invite more uses of it. It's good guys cmon. Palossand is great on spikes fat teams, but ngl I see more why it doesnt get used as much. G-Weez removal has been peak for awhile and its not blocking that shit. And Taunt volcanion is a hard middle finger to any semblance of bulky styles that it becomes difficult to use. Not bad, and definitely better than the 1 use its had, but like.. I get it.

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Here we shoutout the pokemon with 60% winrate or higher and over 10 uses. Gastrodon takes the highest winrate not only among over 10 uses, but in the top 10 and among the listed as well with a staggering 69%. Entei has a clean even 60% winrate, Cresselia and gyarados follow up with roughly 61-63%, Gengar holds 66% and Mienshao holds 63%. All of these pokemon.. except shao, are very solid pokemon who usually don't get as much love as they probably should. Ngl idk how mienshao has more uses than H-Lilligant like the mon isn't bad but like... LOL?
 
I am here to advocate on the behalf of a mon very near and dear to my heart which I believe deserves a good solid look in the current meta, who has improved drastically in usability now that Horoark is dead. LBN views this mon as simply not the best but I see potential... and a very valuable niche, an anti-meta pick in a way.

:pmd/bellibolt: :sv/bellibolt: :pmd/bellibolt:
Bellibolt!

The famed Bellibolt of RU fame has fallen outta use in recent years, but unlike other mons of its tier and calibur it's still quite good, and packs some solid defensive benefits. First off is that defensively, Bellibolt just has solid stats. 109 HP, 91 Def, and 83 SpD help it live a boatload of hits, and paired with Slack Off makes defeating it a daunting task for wallbreakers to take down. But I'll cut to the chase and get into the niche that I believe Bellibolt fits into in the current metagame.

I believe that Bellibolt is the single best Pokemon on fat for taking on Offense teams. Specifically Gapdos Volc Mamo offense. Hyper Offense it's fine into but that's irrelevant.

I'll also preface that you shouldn't be running volt switch for this purpose, run Parabolic Charge so you can heal up and stay topped off into fools or Discharge so you can fish for paras and do better into special attackers or guys trying to set up on ya. I personally prefer Parabolic Charge cause it lets you not only stay healthy vs. Gapdos, but more importantly lets you stay healthy vs. Taunt Volcanion due to having healing that's not tied to a status move.

:pmd/bellibolt:
Additionally, you have flexibility with the ability, Static lets you better punish regular Gapdos sets w/ scarf, and if you're worried about Protective Pads on gapdos, then you can go for Electromorphosis, which lets Parabolic Charge hit way harder, and lets you answer back easily. Otherwise you can run Static to better punish other various contact gamers like Mienshao, Bisharp, Maushold, etc etc. It also lets you become the world's best Jirachi switch in, chipping w/ rocky helmet AND threatening a Static para.
Overall comes down to how scared you are of pads and if you worry about how well the rest of your team can follow up on the para. TLDR, Electromorphosis helps Bellibolt be self-sufficient, Static helps it be a team player.

:pmd/volcanion: :pmd/mamoswine:
But otherwise you may wonder how you beat Volc and Mamo? It's honestly just as easy as Tera Water and win.
I know I know! The thought of "burning tera" is a terrifying one, especially in the RU metagame and for good reason. You want an out, you sometimes want offensive power, you want to be able to eek out a free turn in the endgame. But Bellibolt being able to simply take on 3 mons at once for multiple turns at a time is like amazing value, and it's not like it opens up a major weakness or anything, you just become a bulky water.
And, more importantly, you can pull the trigger at any time during the match. Need to eek out a win vs. Gapdos Mamo endgame? Bellibolt wins. Need to lessen the strain on your defensive walls? Take out their Mamo and get to work. Additionally, Tera Water Muddy Water from Bellibolt does 83% minimum so some chip lets you kill it easily, AKA SR chip if they're CB.
0 SpA Tera Water Bellibolt Muddy Water vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Mamoswine: 300-354 (83.1 - 98%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

So your Mamo MU is fine if you Tera, baring ungodly bad luck from Icicle Crash flinches. And, suprisingly, your Volc MU is also solved!
252+ SpA Volcanion Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Tera Water Bellibolt: 126-149 (29.8 - 35.3%) -- 23.6% chance to 3HKO
Just look at this.
Scariest wallbreaker in the tier and 76.4% of the time you get 4HKO'd.

However, what sets Bellibolt from other bulky waters that put up more impressive results is that Bellibolt can actually answer back with something. Milotic, Vapo, Suicune, Empoleon, all scratch and slightly annoy Volc, and all kinda get shut down either by Earth Power or Taunt or by merit of just wasting PP. None of them can actually directly damage and threaten Volcanion, unlike Bellibolt who has it's Electric STAB of choice OR Toxic if you know they're not Taunt and want to midground in case they switch to a ground.

And of course you have a defensive piece that at least gets rocky helmet chip into Gapdos, and at most either murders it with Electromorphosis Parabolic Charge or gets a Static Para. But you know what Bellibolt in base form also does?

RESIST BRAVE BIRD

:pmd/zapdos-galar:
Even when Tera'd you don't take like an insane amount from Gapdos, it's enough to raise an eyebrow, but it's not crazy damage, and you can usually Slack Off or Parabolic Charge. Latter if they're Protective Pads.
252 Atk Zapdos-Galar Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 236+ Def Tera Water Bellibolt: 148-175 (35 - 41.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

So after I've put this all out, you can surely see what I mean about Bellibolt right? This is a physical wall that can handle Gapdos, Kill Mamoswine, and NOT DIE TO VOLCANION AND LIKE ACTUALLY BEAT IT. You have healing that's not tied to a status move, an actual status move that heals you, Toxic so you can screw over bulkier mons, and if you really need it you can gamble on Muddy Water and it's 30% chance to potentially let you win a last mon situtation.
And this isn't like doing any assumptions, these aren't cherry picked situations or anything, like Bellibolt can just do all of this.

Obviously though, there are more than 3 mons on these Offense teams. But that's where every other Pokemon on YOUR team comes in. If they have a Bisharp, then you should probably have answers for that, like the big idea here is that you don't want to have Bellibolt handle absolutely EVERYTHING on the opposing team. Bellibolt can handle the big classic brainless offensive 3, but it'll probably perish in the act, so being able to handle problem matchups, handle Jirachi clicking body slam, handle setup sweepers like Oricorio clicking taunt and QD, that's up to the rest of your team. But Bellibolt, good ole Bellibolt, is perfectly capable of taking on the 3 goobers for the rest of your team in a way that role compresses BIG TIME.

So give Bellibolt a shot! It's a very versatile mon that honestly can fit onto more than just fat, and is capable of adapting to what your team's specific needs, so if you want an answer to Gapdos, Mamoswine, and Volcanion in one silly little tera water, Bellibolt is your guy!

Have a great day y'all!

Late addendum but please ban oricorio.
 
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Projected usage stats time, woooooo. Since there are so many things to discuss, I'll be breaking them up into multiple categories.

Drops from UU

:pmd/metagross: I swear to fucking god, if UU blue balls us again, I am going to be so mad. Metagross would be such a great addition, giving another steel type while not being weak to fighting is good for dealing with gapdos. We have had this before in Gen 7 and 8, and while it was buffed a lot this gen, I can see it being a solid top tier option.

:pmd/ogerpon: Ogerpon was something that people wanted to drop a while ago, but it never happened. However, it might happen now. Ogerpon is weird, mono grass is extremely bad, but its got everything else. Coverage, utility, setup. It is one of those mons that can pick and choose its counters extremely effectively, and with geezing potentially rising, this would likely be broken if my money is on this.

:pmd/serperior: Uh, serperior. Ngl, thought this would take a lot longer to drop. Fast, able to snowball, annoying as all hell. Either this thing stays and is the biggest piece of shit ever, or its banned instantly.

:pmd/blissey: Watch this get projected to drop, only for OU to take it back. But seriously, let us have blissey, I want to make removeless stall.

Rises to higher tiers

:pmd/weezing: (Imagine this is the galarian form) Okay, so geezing would be an absolutely crippling loss for the tier. Its one of the most splashable removal options rn, and checks a butt ton of the meta. However, the only pokemon that I think would be banned from this is mamoswine, since other pokemon such as gapdos can at the very least be checked by talonflame, who will undoubtedly become a lot better. Mamoswine on the other hand, can't really be checked by talonflame reliably, and loses one of its best checks. But regardless, big loss.

:pmd/fezandipiti: This one also hurts. Fezandipiti is quite a nice defensive piece that can snowball, with it being able to beat greedy builds that pack subpar fairy answers. It will be quite a big loss, so I'm upset with this rise.

Rises from lower tiers

:pmd/muk alola: This is legit rising because of stall on RU ladder, which a-muk is the best on. A-muk is a decent special wall, with knock off+poison touch making a lot of switch-ins uncomfortable. But it can be a bit difficult to fit since it wants a lot of moves, so it is a bit surprising it rose.

:pmd/raikou: Raikou has always been good. CM sets, SubCM, pivot, all are pretty great in allowing it to batter defensive pokemon in order to enable teammates. Not surprised by this in the slightest.

:pmd/gallade: Gallade my beloved. Gallades shtick is that it beats defense, and beats it HARD. Not much in the tier can take +2 attacks from this mon, and those that can are very niche. It does struggle with mediocre special bulk and speed, but it can work well on teams that are looking to beat down defenseno matter what.

:pmd/gastrodon: If you hve been watching tourneys recently, this one ain't a surprise. Gastrodon has established itself as a great defensive ground that can be quite versatile in what it can do from sticky hold phsyical defenseto storm drain special defense. Its a great spiker too, so yeah, not surprised by this.

:pmd/lycanroc dusk: Canard sample HO moment. Yes, this is literally only rising cause of being a HO lead.

Drops to NU

:pmd/rhyperior: Rhyperior is still good, so this is just a ladder thing. Rhyperior is an elite ground type with the ability to trade insanely favourably due to its high bulk and high power coupled with SD. I genuinelly do not know why this is potentially dropping, because I use it a ton and think its great.

:pmd/reuniclus: Another ladder thing. Reuniclus is incredibly powerful in the metagame and heavily abuses those gastro+geezing teams that are popping up everywhere. My only guess of why it isn't used more is that other psychic types provide more defensive utility (despite the fact magic guard is really good utility), so yeah.

:pmd/barraskewda: :pmd/politoed: I'm lumping these two together because they both are primarily rain mons. Barraskewda can be used outside of rain as an offensive pivot, but its lack of defensive utility makes it hard to fit on teams. Rain as a whole isn't really great, as while the abusers are good, lots of the tier threatens to end the sweeps short. Maybe forre will also drop if politoed isn't used as much....
 
:pmd/reuniclus: Another ladder thing. Reuniclus is incredibly powerful in the metagame and heavily abuses those gastro+geezing teams that are popping up everywhere. My only guess of why it isn't used more is that other psychic types provide more defensive utility (despite the fact magic guard is really good utility), so yeah.
people don't find reuni good?? this thing is a balance shredding machine, late game terror, and a cutie but that's unrelated. there's so many common defensive mons that get absolutely mauled by its stab psychic/psynoise/psyshock, its coverage really hits all the stuff it needs to with ghost or fighting, and calm mind makes its power astronomical.

my main guess as to why its not as popular is due to the existence of slowbro being more versatile with its cm set, and always having to run a knock absorbing mon in conjunction with reuni, as you REALLY don't want to lose your item.
it's somewhat of an investment, but i've always found it to be really solid! but at the same time, it dropping to nu would probably get it banned lol so maybe do it for the funny.

y'all better put some respect on this lil boogers name, reuni puts in work!!
the baby:))
 
Pom-Pom banned? Good fucking riddance. Now lets talk winners and losers real quick.

Winners
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Jirachi was generally set-up bait for ori with QD into Taunt just cooking it, and being able to actually para stuff easier with 1 less electric is good. Gyarados was something I've legit just sent Ori hard into and revelation danced it. Dancer lets you basically always get the jump and its not like teras beyond flying are that common, so not having to deal w that is a boon. 1 less bird for torterra next, same w hippo to an even bigger extent. Gapdos likes having HOs main "throw it in and violate geneva" check to it gone, so now HO will have to play the video game vs Gapdos. Slither kinda sucks ass rn but its absolutely better with ori gone. As for sensu... I hope to fucking god this thing will suck. I think it'll be less annoying but like, still annoying.

Losers
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:totodiLUL: :totodiLUL: :totodiLUL: :totodiLUL:
 
These shifts are certainly interesting, so lets go over them.

Drops from UU

:pmd/metagross: :pmd/ogerpon: :pmd/blissey: :pmd/serperior: I've already gone over these in this post here, but they are likely to drop next month since it has been 2 months of them projected to drop.

Rises to higher tiers

:pmd/weezing: :pmd/fezandipiti: Already knew about this two, rip them both, I will miss them.

:pmd/salamence: Salamence has certainly had an interesting trajectory recently. Before, while DD sets where still very good, special attacker sets were probably the better or at least, splashable ones. Now though, DD sets, particularly tera normal facade variants, have become the forefront of mence's sets, with some even considering it broken. It will be sad to lose the defensive sets, as they were a decent glue if you wanted more bulk for your dragon/flying, but not having to deal with the dd sets will take a bit of strain off the builder.

:pmd/slither wing: I mourn this loss. Now, slither wing has been worse lately as the dd flying mons have meant fimp isn't as useful, but damn, having powerful priority is still very useful against everything else. Just a bad loss ngl, slither wing had quite a bit of flexibility in its moveset that could be used that people haven't fully explored yet.

:pmd/gastrodon: Okay, so this one is a bit weirder. Technically, gastrodon is also projected to rise to RU, but at the same time, its projected to rise to UU. This is one of the most devestating losses the tier will have. If you haven't kept up with the tour scene, gastrodon is uhhh, very good. It is one of the best volcanion checks in the tier with storm drain, and is a generally good glue mon with spikes, anchoring many structures. Maybe it will stay? But if it doesn't, the tier is in for a shakeup.

Rises from lower tiers

:pmd/muk alola: :pmd/lycanroc dusk: Already covered these last month, both are prob going to rise (rip NU though, a-muk leaving is big for them).

Drops to NU

:pmd/rhyperior: :pmd/reuniclus: :pmd/barraskewda: :pmd/politoed: Yadda yadda, already knew these would drop.

:pmd/feraligatr: Rip bozo, didn't even stay in the tier for more then 3 months. Gatr in a vacuum isn't bad, but just use gyarados bro.
 
I'll mimic the above, no disguise. Discussing the drops and rises but more specifically the impacts it'd have, and another tidbit I've wanted to say after playing RULT for cycle #1. Not the rises though, NU having to ban munkidori the frame Muk rises is funny but not interesting.

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Fezand leaving doesn't truly change that much. You'd see less covert cloaks on cm psychics like slowbro ig but beyond that it's not that big of a chance. G-Weezing though? Now that is a major change. A defogger and a premier ground immune is a major shake up. Alot of pokemon have been down in the dumps because of Weezing, like Rhyperior, Krook and Hippo to say nothing on Slither. Gapdos doesn't change a huge amount, it still has checks and good ones at that. As for the removal game, I think some stuff will properly begin to shine; namely Tsareena as new removal on offense. Paired with the drops depending on their fate, I can see grasses and grounds ruling the roosts quite a bit. Torterra anyone?

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Truthfully, I don't think this will actually leave. This was HO's choice for a Meowscarada check on HO, and beyond that Lokix generally performs the First Impression job far better. That being said if it does leave? Frankly not much really changes. Slither is a good but not really influential mon and theres so many fighting types to take its place. I could see a Heracross renaissance to take its place for bug type offense. As for pivoting.. gee whats the S rank rn I wonder what he does? Losing a Bisharp check is tragic though.

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Honestly? I like this rise. I've slowly been getting to the opinion that facade mence is fucking stupid; and this comes at a great time. G-Weez rising takes Facade Mence's gimmick away, but EQ/DWB is entirely free with it gone so uh, yea thats fun. What changes isn't a huge amount. Infernape gets better YESS MY STOCKS KEEP RISING! HO can turn to Gyarados... who I'll be bitching about later spoilers but really not a ton changes. Another bird gone means better hippo though so yay? Special mence was always just fine and for the most part Noivern has been a better Pokemon whenever mence isn't clicking DD so most teams can adapt just fine.

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Christmas came early and the devil is being handled. This changes alot. Spikes knockspam was becoming a meta, and people kept lying to themselves saying Volcanion was ok just because he cant kill Gastrodon without a solar beam gimmick. Raikou and Magnezone see their stocks skyrocket, Volcanion can get fucking banned already, and these spikefat teams take a major hit. This thing fits alot of useful defensive value on a team and there's a mother load of infinitely more fun pokemon who benefit from this fatass leaving. Hopefully UU follows through and takes it, but if not we take it from NU anyways so we can laugh as they flail into drednaw :totodiLUL:
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Serperior is going to be fucking cancer and it'll be such an easy QB to make. Glare is aids, Tera blast sets are dumb as bricks and every team without a sap sipper hoodra is going to be calling the suicide helpline trying to pretend this shit is acceptable. That said, this would be like, the 4th pokemon banned exclusively to tera blast warcrimes, might be time to start that Tera Blast Broken conversation...
As for oomfiepon, It'll probably be busted, especially w G-Weez leaving. Knock U-Turn Encore on its own outlasts like most of its checks and with Tera letting it outspeed and disrupt every status move clicked in the tier it'll be absurd. Locked Tera Grass is still solid and SD/4A sets can also be absurdly dangerous to handle, with coverage like play rough and superpower. I could see some emergency teras, strong priority like Entei and things like Amoonguss being able to keep it on lock but.. prolly not.

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Now these are some real fucking drops. Blissey offense can make a return for being a blanket sponge, though it lacks a degree of finesse and disruption utility. It'd be solid, and absolutely not broken. A nice healthy addition and nobody would complain about surely. As for Metagross, this thing would be crazy good. The buffs it got in exchange for losing Cosmic Power; stuff like Psychic Fangs and Knock poise it to be absolutely amazing. SR 3a, Banded, Punching Gloves, Custap Berry Explosion, Agility, list goes on. The sky is the limit and having another excellent steel and priority is amazing. Hopefully CB sets or the like aren't too overhearing.

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The first 3 just should not be dropping when we have fucking Azelf still up here. Rhyperior fell off hard but shifts will likely revitalize it and make the meta way easier for its gameplan. Gatr is really good with SD sets to break teams apart and give it a niche Gyara can't replicate, shit is very nice, it'll be back. Reuni I'm not hugely surprised, its not as good at handling Gapdos as Slowbro or Cresselia are and Jirachi stuffs standard CM tank sets pretty badly. LO sets and bulky twave sets are still good though, and deserve more use. The last 2 bums are finally on the way out, Rain has been mediocore to terrible for a bit now and the Gastrodon craze made it that much worse. In a post Gastrodon post Volcanion world I can see them coming back up but for now I expect to see 2 more NUBL merchants to hit the shelves... maybe not barraskewda though.

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Now for the bitching. RULT cycle one is down and there are some clear trends. Alot of use for Gastrodon and Chesnaught balances, the usual array of stalls; those who beat those like PHeal Breloom and Taunt Tornadus, and your smattering of HOs. But Gyarados has always been annoying; its just easier to forget. But new sets are popping up and its becoming more and more clear that each small differentiation Gyarados can make has a big effect on the already small list of Pokemon who can handle its default RestoChesto set. I've seen Tera Ground sets, Sub DD, DD Taunt, sets with or without Boots, I've seen EQ Tera Fly Blast. Wo-Chiens going resttalk instead of foul play lets Waterfall/EQ and Waterfall/Crunch be way easier to get away with and the traditional options to check the speed boosters, stuff like Twave Bro, Twave Cress or Quag are just outright useless vs most Gyarados, leaving the pool of checks consistently able to handle all of them being... Phys def Umbreon. And Tera Ghost FP Chien. Beyond that its burning tera on the gapdos or thoughts and prayers. I wouldn't be opposed to kicking a suspect for this thing, none of these shifts really change its game a ton beyond there being bigger fish to instantly aim to fry. We are expected to have a backlog to deal with come shifts; we gotta strike on this quick if you actually wanna do it before like August or even later. Cuz there's the QB grasses, then wait to potentially Volcanion and then waiting etc.
 
Weezing-Galar moved from RU to OU
Fezandipiti moved from RU to UU
Slither Wing moved from RU to UU
Blissey moved from UU to RU
Ogerpon moved from UU to RU
Serperior moved from UU to RU


alright time for winners and losers HO edition

Winners

:pmd/salamence:
weezing was the biggest counter to mence by far, now it gets to go WILD freely, maybe even ban worthy

:pmd/lilligant-hisui:
since salamence stays not as big of a winner as expected but still, weez leaves, slither leaves, remaining walls hate grass, really huge

:pmd/maushold:
fast knock off bot on HO???? big if true, weezing leaving also means most helmet mons remaining are weak to bullet seed, which is also nice

:pmd/mimikyu:
still not a fan of it but you gotta admit not being forced into tera fire is cool, it still has abbysmal dogshit stats but it's still a win all around, serperior is also a new target to revenge kill

Losers

:pmd/gyarados:
it loses one of the main reasons to be used over salamence: weezing-galar, still a good mon, just hard to justify

:pmd/armarouge::pmd/azelf::pmd/gengar::pmd/mew::pmd/basculegion-f:
free switch in on gweez is no longer a thing and now there's even more fat special blobs, HO in general will be VERY centered around physical offense cause there's few actually good special mons and a lot of different, powerful special walls, this is just adding more to the pile, armarouge is still armarouge and will survive, but other already mediocre speatkers? not so sure

every fast HO mon also got a bit worse due to serperior's absurd speed but like, serperior in general cooks HO, i'm not gonna list every mon bad into it
 
Aight. Shifts have come in, so I'll outline the winners, Normal People Edition. Those with the audacity to load teams with a defensive backbone are welcome. Let's have fun, I'll be doing first impressions of the new mons and then get into the winners etc. Mind you, this is personal opinions, not Council Member Luna speaking. Not gonna mention losers since honestly thats less fun and not a ton rlly lost this shift.

Gains:
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Losses:
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This aint me speaking for council but ngl I'd be shocked if Oomfiepon survives the week. Knock U-turn outlives damn near the entire meta barring Amoonguss and Amoonguss barely breathes the same air as the word good. Self setting spikes in nuts with its moves and being speed control on demand by just clicking the tera button is incredible. Momentum lord with +1 speed encore? Insane. SD sets are cool too, though I think they are definitely worse. Still amazing, but not as good as Boots Pivot sets.
Honestly? Serp has kinda disappointed, truthfully I expected alot worse but it feels like it will always lose to somebody. That being said, forcing Hoodra on pretty much every team ever is stupid and nobody likes glare. I think it'll need a bit more time compared to Oomfiepon above but again, I don't expect reception to this thing being very kind.
As for blissey, I think it'll be cool. Niche, but cool. Chansey offense has been a historic meme but at the same time I think Blissey Offense has a bit of potential. Toss Twave Hwish sounds p fun for offensive teams to check ghosts but otherwise it's a fat enabler first and foremost. NU can have fun w Chansey in 3 months after they ban Munkidori cuz we stole A-Muk.

Tier 1 Winners:
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Mamo got a bunch of ground and grasses on the come-up, while G-Weez was a common splashed check on offensive & bulkier builds. Truthfully it's eating nicely right now, but I think the panic of it being suddenly broken is overblown. We still has Slowbro, Cresselia, Rotom-Heat among others means while I can see it being premier breaker #1, broken is another story. As for Krook, Slither gone G-Weez gone is absurdly good for CB Krook and every other krook set. Scale shot can stop being a joke, SR protect is great again, pretty much entirely unshackled. Back to A+ it'll go, me thinks. People started souring hard on Hippowdon with G-Weezing's rise to prominence, and with it gone I think its gotten much better. Breloom was mostly soft-locked to Poison heal sets thanks to G-Weez, which, while functional and certainly did tear fat and no sableye stall to SHREDS, it was basically all it could do. Technician sets are back online now, and I think they'll be potent. Bullet seed Mach Rock tomb CC/SD is gonna be nice af, but I think the dust will need to settle before it starts doing any heavy lifting. As for H-Lilligant... honestly I could see this being outright broken lmao losing fez and g-weez opens this thing up ludicrously well.

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Every ground type under the sun got better who could've thought. Not gonna elaborate on these three the same from the prior 3 applies to these 3 too. Mienshao is noteworthy since it hated g-weez more than it did stuff like slowbro or Cress or what have you. Mimikyu loses a check but hippo gets more common so who knows. Better into offense though. Regidrago loses a fairy and stuff like sub dd eq stab is usable now. Grimmsnarl is fringe anti-fat stuff but it does its job better without gweez.

anyways ahem
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
 
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