NOC E.G.O Wielders Mafia - A 17P Role Madness (Game Thread) - MAFIA WIN

Alright I went back and reviewed DBD's progression and voting towards EoD and here are some key facts:
-Votes for Celever at 720, which is his first serious vote all game
-Moves onto Evie at 808 after citing he "doesn't like where the Celever wagon is heading" and thinks Evie is less likely to be town than CK
-The only significant events between those votes were Evie and CK voting for Celever
-Celever had expressed strong feelings about Evie being scum earlier on, particularly in connection with me
-The "I have read but not learned" posts from earlier on imply he was following the thread somewhat closely from around post 400 or so
-He also threw around some shade at me later, piggybacking on the "what is Flandrs like when he's angry" discussion from mainly Celever/M2H

So essentially DBD scooted into the thread super late, shared very few original thoughts, and when he started voting he pretty much exclusively borrowed his reasons from other players in a very easy-to-trace way. He also shaded me with the coaching comment at 885 even though our heads were ostensibly in the same place re: wagons at the time, with both of us smelling a rat and backing away from Celever. All my memories of town!DBD involve much more original thought processes and higher levels of effort in their content, even on the low-info D1, so there's a meta angle to my suspicion as well.

Nah bro I'm just white and nerdy
 
Thoughts on DBD’s EoD?
Mostly forgettable. Was there something that stood out to you?

Mind that pidgeon did try to change votes to Evie last second (#944)
Ya I guess it wasnt counted because I forgot the ##. I saw M2H voted Chemdah, but someone posted an 'updated' VC and I saw Evie had 2 and Chemdah none so tried to switch. Didnt really matter. I guess I could have voted NE but Im looking forward to hearing from him about Wisteria.
 
sure but it's also the case that celever had absolutely no reason to have ch3m that high. so whether ch3 was tmi'd town or scum I had no clue but it was the thing that made me not really try that hard to fight the cel vote. And re the ch3 vote I figured either way cel flips it was a vote that's bound to happen anyways. If cel is town the slot is independently scummy and if cel is maf the slot is either tmi'd town or scum but at this rate id never be able to figure it out.

re: it being retarded. ultimately cel has to put his partners somewhere. are skip joey and fairy all obv town enough that ch3 sticks out like a sore thumb? I kinda think so but I see people that doubted some of those spots yesterday, particularly skip. I was combing over cels readslist asking myself if he was maf where would his partners be and I saw ch3 with some role spec that could potentially be town spewing if my prefrontal cortex was about 18% more developed but I couldn't wrap my head around how or why town celever would arrive at that so I started pairing the two. I don't think it's as fucking obvious as you're making it out to be that celever would rank all his teammates in perfectly reasonable positions if he was mafia. I think if cel is mafia there he thinks "oh I can just say they seemed innocent on tone" and brush it aside and that's more or less plausible.
I'm only going to continue this conversation with you if you want.

It comes down to this quote, which you literally have come to the conclusion for:
if cel is maf the slot is either tmi'd town or scum but at this rate id never be able to figure it out.
I understand your Ch3mdah rationale as:

"I think Cel is scum but a risky vote because he claimed PR, so I'm going to vote someone he TMI'd"

This makes zero sense unless you think the other vote target is TMI'd scum.

If he's TMI'd town, you obviously would not vote him.

And if you don't know if he's TMI'd scum or town, AS YOU YOURSELF ADMIT, then voting him does nothing! It doesn't help you on Cel. It doesn't help you clarify a worldview. It doesn't even hit a scumlean.

Like I said, I understand why you as town would have this rationale for your Ch3mdah vote. I think it is stupid. I also think that I'm right almost all the time in calling it stupid, and that it doesn't matter because Cel obviously did not flip scum.
 
oh yeah can you explain this


##Vote: Wisteria
:)
lmao kidding
##Vote: No vote
oh FUCK no
This reads performative to me. We are at deadline and trying to consolidate wagons, and Chemdah throws a vote on you and then takes it back. It is theatrical and I think a townie would be more concerned about voting for a wagon they want at that point in time.

I guess it looks worse on Chemdah rather than you since he is the one primarily engaging in the behavior. I thought (and still do lean) that you are mafia. The main worry in my head which argues the contrary is that you and NE are both townreading each other extremely hard. NE said hed but his reputation on the line that you are town. I somewhat doubt he does that as mafia and if he is town then I give his read on you some credit. I was hoping to have a ~private~ convo with him about it but perhaps we'll just have it out in thread when he gets here.

Chemdah also reads independently scummy to me because of his in general being a backseater and posting just enough to seem active. The focus on flavor is like most of his content tho I should go back and reread him to make sure Im not just seeing with confirmation bias.

Bet. We'll talk Tomorrow if we are here. I guess Chemdah's vote/unvote on Wis is really what bothered me here.
I already said this earlier btw. What do you make of Chemdah?
 
I'm only going to continue this conversation with you if you want.

It comes down to this quote, which you literally have come to the conclusion for:

I understand your Ch3mdah rationale as:

"I think Cel is scum but a risky vote because he claimed PR, so I'm going to vote someone he TMI'd"

This makes zero sense unless you think the other vote target is TMI'd scum.

If he's TMI'd town, you obviously would not vote him.

And if you don't know if he's TMI'd scum or town, AS YOU YOURSELF ADMIT, then voting him does nothing! It doesn't help you on Cel. It doesn't help you clarify a worldview. It doesn't even hit a scumlean.

Like I said, I understand why you as town would have this rationale for your Ch3mdah vote. I think it is stupid. I also think that I'm right almost all the time in calling it stupid, and that it doesn't matter because Cel obviously did not flip scum.

I am never going to be able to clear ch3mdah at this rate so they are independently a vote I don't mind. They are a person that at least plausibly makes sense with celever which was the working theory even if I wasn't super convinced. That makes it a good hedgey position. Not much is lost to voting them while they can at least reasonably be paired. If celever simply tmi'd ch3mdah town, I would never be able to discern it with their current posting. There may be a case where ch3 is spewed town off role spec but again I'm not smart enough to discern it. I tried to find a reason to clear them. I really did, and I couldn't find it. I still have no idea why celever had them up so high.

The part where waiting helps clarify celever is the next day he is forced to provide fake tracking results or alternatively provide real results as a scum tracker. In that way his claim becomes a liability. I was simply trying to find people that could work with him.

I don't think that thought process qualifies as "retarded" but you kind of just insult me every game so it tracks.

And to circle back on the power players comment -- you are the one that is always complaining about getting n1'd and you've been playing in such a way to avoid being n1'd so you do definitely think about power levels in game. In fact you look like you're about an inch from voting AP as it stands so clearly that level 1 NKA has some merit to you from that lens.
 
Anti announcer gamers rise up
Honestly real.
Announcer is a boring role.
Secondly, I agree that this kill is strange bc yes they had little content, so we couldn’t draw connections, but I feel like n1 maf would try to get out a more active poster?

Flandrs can we not let your DBD vote fly under the radar?
Fairy was relatively active wasnt she? I certainly wouldnt say shes inactive.
 
it was im just lost on how he derived something alignment indicative from it, let alone a pairing
I don't really buy this because ch3mdah had already shown enough willingness to die on the hill of a D1 no-vote that the wisp vote was hard to mistake for anything but a joke.
Im not going to dispute that it was a joke. It still rubbed me wrong and looked like a weak attempt at distancing.
 
I already said this earlier btw. What do you make of Chemdah?
you did, but i wanted more detail

re: ch3mdah my level 1 read was that it's probably a good thing that they seemed somewhat more eager to engage in discussion today but i still want them to post reads before i make my final decision
paging Ch3mdah who flips town/mafia here and why

on another note i want you to walk me through your thought process here
clearly you did not have enough of an opinion on cele/NE to vote either of them at eod1
and from the looks of it you scumread me then considering that it is still persisting now?
so i'm curious what exactly a shift off of your original vanity of me to ch3mdah would've achieved there

I thought (and still do lean) that you are mafia.
i feel like you havent cased me since #499 so i want to see what makes this read persist considering that we've had 20+ pages of content since then
 
it still seems reasonable to me now
Really? Like you dont have an ounce of regret for mislynching the Town Tracker? I'll say Celever's self vote sucked and Im not going to say Celever was super duper townie. If you are town I do hope you aren't going to take the "well it is what it is" attitude and you make an effort to understand where you went wrong with this one.

How much experience playing NOCs do you have? I assume a lot but I dont know you that well since you were like a single post in Small Street and I think I was dead early in Celever's game possibly before you even subbed in. Do you typically play in high power games, role madness, or what?

I'll admit that Celever's selfvote sucked a lot and frankly people should never* be doing that as any alignment. I could see some people considering a selfvote to be a scummy move, but you just handwaved his vote by saying you wouldn't bite or something. Im real tired of cowboys thinking they are gonna get the strong town player with a big claimed role voted off because "surely THIS time for sure Ive caught a mafia making a bold lie on D1!!". There is no real situation where Celever should be voted off with that claim, even if he were some random.

Like maybe this is just you, but its bad and this "whoops, oh well" style of bravado does remind me of Tommy's mafia behavior where he got M2H mislynched despite M2H having a very probtown role claim in that game.
You claim to have been picking fights all day but I don't think you've /tried/ to actually build a wagon.
Picking fights doesnt mean building wagons, this is not equivalent.
I have no evidence that you value your opinions
This is a kind of wild thing to say, why did you believe this? Can you cite me some Cele posts that made you think this? Also bonus question I guess... do you still think it?
 
I am never going to be able to clear ch3mdah at this rate so they are independently a vote I don't mind. They are a person that at least plausibly makes sense with celever which was the working theory even if I wasn't super convinced. That makes it a good hedgey position. Not much is lost to voting them while they can at least reasonably be paired. If celever simply tmi'd ch3mdah town, I would never be able to discern it with their current posting. There may be a case where ch3 is spewed town off role spec but again I'm not smart enough to discern it. I tried to find a reason to clear them. I really did, and I couldn't find it. I still have no idea why celever had them up so high.

The part where waiting helps clarify celever is the next day he is forced to provide fake tracking results or alternatively provide real results as a scum tracker. In that way his claim becomes a liability. I was simply trying to find people that could work with him.
It's night 1 and scum is at full power in a 17 player game. What do you think the odds are that a pubclaimed town tracker is allowed to get good enough results to prove their alignment?

I think you are wrong when you say that Cel having ch3mdah in a weird place on a readslist makes ch3mdah a more attractive vote than if ch3mdah was in a more normal place on Cel's readslist. It's the logic there that doesn't track.

If you say, "I get scared by PR claims and I don't want to take a chance on losing a tracker day 1", fine, I understand that reason to not vote Cel.

If you say, "ch3mdah is unreadable", fine, I understand that reason to instead vote ch3mdah.

But there's no reason to evaluate the ch3mdah vote based on where Cel put them on their readslist even if you KNOW Cel is scum because you don't know if Cel is TMI'ing town or scum

So it's that last part that I'm saying has absolutely nothing to do with evaluating whether ch3mdah is a good vote or not

And to circle back on the power players comment -- you are the one that is always complaining about getting n1'd and you've been playing in such a way to avoid being n1'd so you do definitely think about power levels in game. In fact you look like you're about an inch from voting AP as it stands so clearly that level 1 NKA has some merit to you from that lens.
The reason I don't put stock into NKA are twofold:
1. If scum know that people are doing NKA, then obviously that affects their nightkills and therefore your NKAs
2. There are a billion unknowable reasons for why scum choose who to kill each night. A billion narratives can be spun. All of them can sound plausible, all of them are good stories. But there is literally no way to judge one story against another.

You want other stories for why fairy got NK'd? Here:
-Flanders is scum and got scared of fairy latching onto him at EOD
-Someone flanders is scumreading wanted to frame flanders
-NE is scum and got scared of fairy obvtowning from Cel flipping green
-Someone NE is scumreading wanted to frame NE
-Some of the power players are scum and so they wanted to keep the other power players alive (your hypothesis)
-Some of the power players are scumreading are scum, and with let's say M2H/hal voting cel incorrectly they think that we are mislynchable and killing fairy can inspire paranoia

Do you see why I think you can do this forever, without ever meaningfully getting closer to the truth?
 
I have a hard time believing celevers reads
Real rich you are coming after Apricity now (or trying to get me to go after him??) despite you also throwing shade on Celever.
I guess you are more focused on the NK and the fact hes still alive but really if you wanted to go that route you would probably focus on me cause like I already said, in what world does Apricity get NKd after doing scums bidding for them on D1? He doesnt and it makes your whole premise bullshit.
 
Back
Top