Popcorn Mafia 4 - Cycle 3 Deadline August 23 at 10PM EDT

skippergamez said:
ok I've got some thoughts since my last post

I like Tommy here; I think his posts read very "lemme help the state of the thread" i.e. 188

Honestly AP's read on me, while I obviously disagree, is pushed harder than any read last game, so I'm labelling him as town.

I don't really like Texas's posting here. I feel like any read they provide this game has been fairly unsupported, and the gamestate jumping on and agreeing with his post on Celever rubbed me the wrong way.

I feel like Cel's c1 is very similar to their last d1 and we lynched them for it with their overall lax approach to their entrance. though ig I wouldn't mind Cel being a gunbearer LMAO.
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how about me?
 
realiti said:
how about me?
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Other than the fact that you want to shoot me!

Honestly very similar to my AP read as I’m reading your iso. Like I don’t think I’ve ever seen you this confident in a read ever tbh.

It’s honestly pretty annoying that my biggest townreads are the ones trying to shoot me but hey I’ll just hero shoot again!
 
AngryPidgeon said:
Skipper, phoopes, joey, miyami, celever, fairy probably top 6 scummies for me.

If Texas is maf, hes vengeful, ironically.
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hello! Curious how I ended up in your top six with like four posts made.

I am home now from vacation so I'll try to be a bit more active, but overall I think Celever is also Just Like This Whenever He Plays and I don't really see anything alignment indicative in what he does
 
Knowing this is ShyPebble's first game I think the airc thing is probably not mafia indicative after all.

I think shooting an inactive is probably a reasonably fine strategy down the line, but earlier I'd rather get more information out of the shot than anything. Does the day continue until someone gets shot? Or are we on a time limit?
 
I wouldn't mind if we shot Des and just got that situation out of the way since they're always gonna be impossible to read and if they live mafia can't use them as a lightning rod of suspicion to pull heat away from them, but I also understand if hyhy would rather take a shot on someone they think is more likely to be mafia

the problem is if hyhy dies des has the gun and that seems unideal
 
ok
right now this is where im at
my gut wants to hipshoot clouds
my brain is thinking miyami, sort of joey, and evie (in order of most to least likely to shoot) as people that are lowk lacking imo and i wouldnt mind with an earlygame gun if i misfire (likely)
 
I haven't seen a whole lot of mech talk about HyHy receiving the gun D1 affects how the PL shakes out. I honestly think this is something to look at to guide the shot tonight

Page 3
Celever and AF's exchange on page 3 feels like insincere banter. This is not me saying that it isn't town, but this feels planned and not spur-of-the-moment. I find myself agreeing with Texas about Celever's overall behavior at the start of the game.

Following off of that comment by Texas, Celever pivots to the other mafia game to try and "show a read" or at the very least change the topic of the moment. Really not liking Cel here.

I agree with AP here - I think we'll be seeing a lot more chainsaw defenses and/or just blatant defenses of scumpartners in thread simply because of how valuable a scum shot is (1 alive townconfirm, 1 less mafia)

phoopes's point about there being nothing but fluff in the thread resonates with me up to now

Flandrs townslip is fake to me

agree with realiti's early reads

HyHy makes a good point about phoopes's entrance being potentially coached, I could see this - decent response from phoopes though

Celever pops in with a scumread on Flandrs off the townslip. I don't buy what Cel is doing at this point outside of trying to shift pressure on his slot

Contrary to Cel and AF's interaction, AP and AF's discussion about lowposting feels like it comes from a townie perspective. Townpoints for both

Miyami enters the thread. This seems uncoached as an entrance

Evie says that shooting an inactive is bad for the first time.

Strongly disagree with BD's comment about AP, I feel that AP is one of the people who was actively progressing the game at that point

Clouds enters. I agree with him here, but AP townread seemed like a consensus TR at the point

Flandrs shot is again a question mark from me. This feels like an indirect endorsement of Celever, who is probably my biggest scumread thus far, so I don't like this

good observation by pulsar at #149

Again, I find myself agreeing with Texas about skipper and Celever's behavior and posting up to this point - also quite odd that it's being painted as him controlling the thread when all he did was make a single post about voting Cel

realiti reads in #158 is an interesting perspective. agree on the Skipper point, disagree on the Clouds / AP point, considering the Pebble point

wow, I agree with Cel for once - #173 and #174 are good posts, and I agree HyHy's pick was agenda'd
 
Part 2.

I agree with Joey's point at #182 - inac shot is probably not the best course of action

#185 from AP sticks out to me too from this backread, but now we're groupthinking too much - perhaps we should save the shot and re-eval tomorrow

AP's townread on Des at #190 makes no sense to me though, this is literally how des starts every game

#196 from Tommy came from out of nowhere

Liking Texas's pressure on Dusk, but I don't think Dusk is scum right now

#225 has the hallmarks of uncomfortable scum. Now I'm putting Dusk as a scumlean

Eh #233 isn't a great reason to me and Tommy's reaction is better this time around

Pebble re-enters at #249. This doesn't scream anything at me, so NAI

#251 is good analysis from Tommy, I'm going to bucket him as a townread now

#255 from Pebble feels rather uncoached. This is also a townlean for me

Well, alright, #259 is far more detailed analysis than I would expect and could be coached

Skipper re-enters and immediately tries to deflect the pressure, however unlike Celever actually offers a plausible defense

I must say I disagree with a lot of #279 though. This could be coached

Clouds + me shot triggers a flurry of activity, but NAI from that

Agreeing with AP here, except Celever is lower than this

Miyami and Pebble's interaction feels genuine to me, #305 explains the depth of the read in #259

Evie repeating what she said on Page 6 makes me think this might be an indirect defense of a potential shot in HyHy's circle. I agree with the point for the record, but the repetition makes me suspicious

I think HyHy having the gun means that at least 1 of the "biggest threats" in this game is Mafia. Those would be, to me, in the pool of Clouds / realiti / Cel and maybe the wildcards like Texas and phoopes (although I have zero experience with their threat level in past games).
 
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