What? What happened? This is going to require some context.
does a quick Google search
Oh, good God
-
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NFL Thread: 2025-26 Season
- Thread starter adjectivenoun
- Start date
does a quick Google search
Oh, good God
Cam Little with a 70 yard FG ... that looked like it would be good from 75-80
Rich Eisen crying like a proud father
Rich Eisen crying like a proud father
While I was trying to get myself to take another break from the Internet (it’s still not working, send help), I stumbled upon this last week.
(Snapshot taken from the ESPN mobile app)
Ignoring the hilarious statistic that is Ashton Jeanty having negative rushing yards- isn’t preseason football just the greatest?- this game is notable for two reasons. For one, Pete Carroll was out on the field having 2016 flashbacks at the end of the last game. Preseason doesn’t have overtime, so this and also the Dolphins/Bears game both ended in, and I quote, “ties”. But that’s not the funniest part.
The funny part at least to me is that the Raiders always seem to be getting into situations like this. Just a few years ago you had AFC West fans hoping the Chargers would tie their Week 18 regular season game so both teams would make the playoffs, which would have been the first time in NFL history a tie game would have done that. Mind you, the large majority of fans usually don’t want ties at all in this league. After this the Raiders would keep being among the teams with the most overtime games per season, getting as many as four of these in one season.
As luck would have it, the Raiders’ last preseason game last season also ended in a tie after regulation. Again, no overtime. But look who they’re just happening to play this week. Not only have the Raiders technically gone 0-0-2 in their past two preseason games, which is already wild to think about, but this team has a chance to do something really freaking funny and become the first team since 1973 to, technically, have multiple ties in the same season. To my knowledge, no team since the introduction of overtime in 1974 has done this- the Browns got really close in 2018 though- even with preseason games taken into account.
So my end question is. Is it possible to sports bet an NFL game to tie?
(Snapshot taken from the ESPN mobile app)
Ignoring the hilarious statistic that is Ashton Jeanty having negative rushing yards- isn’t preseason football just the greatest?- this game is notable for two reasons. For one, Pete Carroll was out on the field having 2016 flashbacks at the end of the last game. Preseason doesn’t have overtime, so this and also the Dolphins/Bears game both ended in, and I quote, “ties”. But that’s not the funniest part.
The funny part at least to me is that the Raiders always seem to be getting into situations like this. Just a few years ago you had AFC West fans hoping the Chargers would tie their Week 18 regular season game so both teams would make the playoffs, which would have been the first time in NFL history a tie game would have done that. Mind you, the large majority of fans usually don’t want ties at all in this league. After this the Raiders would keep being among the teams with the most overtime games per season, getting as many as four of these in one season.
As luck would have it, the Raiders’ last preseason game last season also ended in a tie after regulation. Again, no overtime. But look who they’re just happening to play this week. Not only have the Raiders technically gone 0-0-2 in their past two preseason games, which is already wild to think about, but this team has a chance to do something really freaking funny and become the first team since 1973 to, technically, have multiple ties in the same season. To my knowledge, no team since the introduction of overtime in 1974 has done this- the Browns got really close in 2018 though- even with preseason games taken into account.
So my end question is. Is it possible to sports bet an NFL game to tie?
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Dang. That sucks. We were a 59 yard field goal made as time expired away from seeing this actually happen. First it was that Week 18 game, then it was the 3-0 game from last year against the Vikings, and now this. What is it with the Raiders and field goals preventing history from being made? And they weren’t even the ones who kicked it this time!
Slight correction: That 3-0 game was in December 2023, not the 2024 season.
Update: Are you fucking kidding me?
All that work just for Micah Parsons to get hurt in practice or some other thing that screws over millions of bets around America. I think Dallas won this trade, but that’s not because Ol’ Jerry is suddenly competent or anything. I think Dallas won the trade because I think giving up first round picks from consecutive is a stupid decision regardless of the context. I almost don’t want to pick Green Bay to win the division now because it feels too obvious, you know? You ever see something and you just get that feeling it doesn’t seem right? I still think their offensive core could be decent and maybe win the division but I do expect the results of this trade to be made apparent to Packers fans sooner than they might like, especially with that massive overpay likely making him want to stay in the state of Wisconsin.
Somewhat unrelated to this thread but also kind of related depending on who you ask: college ball’s guilty of this too. It’s not just the pros. Feels like everyone and their mother’s picking Texas for that “College GameDay” game tomorrow but with how much they and the Ohio State community is hyping up Lee Corso and ESPN
As for what any of that has to do with the NFL and this NFL season; I generally view the NFL as both more competitive and a better product to watch these days, and I don’t think that teams should misuse their draft picks when they do have them. I mentioned earlier in the offseason that I thought it was incredibly stupid Jacksonville didn’t draft a defensive tackle… at all, especially since Cleveland got the guy I hoped they would take anyway, ironically, but putting this nicely I’d rather stick a rock in my eye than put my stock into the Jaguars, Travis Hunter, and a fresh, new young guy that butchered “Duval” so badly I think he actually did it on purpose. Stay tuned for my next post to get my real, full picks and standings for every team in the league. I would do this tonight but I have work tomorrow and I need to get some sleep.
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We're almost there, fellas. The regular season starts Thursday night, and I've got all of my picks locked in and ready for action. Feel free to come back to this post to either absolutely flame me for my opinions or see how well this post aged. Let's get into it.
Disclaimer: The standings shown here may not accurately reflect the total number of games during the season. These are more based off of my projected win totals.
- Division Standings
- AFC East: #1 Bills (13-4), #7 Patriots (9-8), Dolphins (9-8), Jets (4-13)
- AFC North: #4 Bengals (11-6), #6 Ravens (11-6), Steelers (9-8), Browns (5-12)
- AFC South: #3 Texans (11-6), Titans (8-9), Jaguars (5-12), Colts (5-12)
- AFC West: #2 Chiefs (12-5), #5 Broncos (12-5), Chargers (10-7), Raiders (6-11)
- NFC East: #1 Eagles (12-5), Commanders (10-7), Giants (6-11), Cowboys (6-11)
- NFC North: #2 Lions (12-5), #5 Packers (12-5), Vikings (8-9), Bears (4-13)
- NFC South: #4 Falcons (11-6), #6 Buccaneers (11-6), Saints (5-12), Panthers (5-12)
- NFC West: #3 Seahawks (11-6), #7 Rams (10-7), 49ers (8-9), Cardinals (4-13)
- Super Bowl 60 Preseason Pick
- Bills over Ravens in the AFC Championship (Chiefs miss the game for the first time since 2017 in a Divisional Round stunner against the Ravens)
- Eagles over Seahawks in the NFC Championship (I promise this isn't bias towards two of my favorite NFC teams, this is just how I can see the bracket lining up... plus if that were true I would have us winning lmao)
- Bills win Super Bowl 60 in overtime off of a failed tush push to win the game (Bills already scored a field goal at this point)
Honestly I can see any of the Eagles, Lions, Seahawks, or Packers winning the NFC but that's just what I'm feeling right now. Should be a really fun conference outside of...
- Da Bears
- Even with Ben Johnson 4-13 is their ceiling. This is my frontrunner for the #1 overall pick, with the Cardinals, Jets, and Colts all rounding out my Bottom Four (Panthers just barely miss out at #5 due to strength of schedule). This team looks so much better on paper than I think they actually are, and that schedule might be the most difficult schedule I've ever seen since I started picking NFL games during the pandemic. I've never trusted Caleb Williams completely, I have no idea what the playmakers are going to be able to do with Caleb and a buffed but also aging O-Line, and while the defense has some star power, it's nowhere close to the Giants front seven, the Cowboys defense even without Micah Parsons, and the other 4-13 squads. Only Carolina's defense worries me more relative to my projected win total for the respective team (Cincinnati's defense is also pretty bad, but the offense is at least way better than all of these teams mentioned here). I don't think Ben Johnson, as good as I'm starting to believe he might actually be, is particularly good scheme fit with Chicago specifically, and those two Bears/Lions games in particular are going to show people how to play against his offensive scheme since... well, if anyone would know how, it's the defense of his old team, it just makes sense.
- BONUS: The Division of QB Injuries
- Between Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa, the AFC East should have enough quarterback injuries to start retrieving Souls after an unreasonably hard boss fight. If you couldn't tell I'm possibly a bit too high on the Bills this season, and I may regret that later, but the Dolphins at least get nine home games this year and may be able to rely on sunburning their opponents in Miami again like they did in 2023. See, kids, what makes the joke funny is that their basketball team is literally the Miami Heat. Drake Maye seems less injury prone than those two, in any case, so I just barely have the Patriots over the Dolphins on a tiebreaker for the 7 seed in the AFC seed. All that work just for the Chiefs to remind Drake Maye he isn't TB12 and sack him six times in the wild card round at Arrowhead. Oops.
My Final Preseason Tier List:
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I would love to hear what redeeming qualities the Saints have that don't put them in #1 pick contention
So that this isn't just a one-liner, I'll do my own tier list, I guess:
Teams are ordered from left to right in terms of ranking within each tier.
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Oh, the Saints are still bad, don’t get me wrong. This is less about what the Saints do have (which isn’t much) and more about what other teams don’t have (which is a lot). Pretty much by default I don’t the Saints get the top pick since I think Carolina finishes behind them possibly off a tiebreaker. The NFC South hasn’t had a repeat last place team in just over a decade and I think the Saints defense is just barely good enough to keep them out of contention for the top pick unless they specifically only play their backups or something. The Panthers have a worse defense and a lower point differential relative to their previous season’s record (a statistic more often referred to by the Pythagorean Expectation if you’re a baseball fan) and while most of the other teams we both have in our bottom tier have a higher ceiling than the Saints, we seem to agree on the Colts having a low floor and I also think the Cardinals and Jets could get a better pick over New Orleans via 2025 strength of schedule.
If they’re healthy, provided… I do think there are some guys on the offense like Kamara and Olave (he is still a Saint, right?) aren’t nearly where they used to be but they could at least try and do something with that easy schedule. Compare that to my pick in Chicago who I have no idea what their playmakers are going to be able to do if Caleb Williams plays how I expect him to and their only easy NFC wins coming against the other fourth-place teams. That offense is almost entirely reliant on a pretty young WR room and the defense looks better than both of the NFC South teams but if any of those new pickups get hurt or underperform, they’re cooked.
Player might have blown his achilles, Jalen Carter ejected for spitting on Dak, taunting flags are already stupid, Chris Collinsworth still insufferable on commentary and Jalen Hurts rushing for TDs
NFL SEASON IS BACK, BABY!!
NFL SEASON IS BACK, BABY!!
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Peak sicko football. I can't believe I had that game on the whole time.
The Chargers... didn't blow the game? The Chiefs... didn't pull out some bullshit to win? A Chargers team could be... clutch?! Against them?!
I must be dreaming.
I must be dreaming.
Beating the "tighten up in the clutch" team in primetime is certainly a start!
“Ohh look at me, I have a rocket arm and look like I was built in a lab. I live in sunny Los Angeles, have long flowy blonde hair, make $60M a year and am dating Madison Beer”
Jokes aside, was great to see him have a good one, hope its not the only positive game this year. Even if i couldnt care less for the Chargers, but i do love Herbert as a QB.
Skylar, where is my offensive line?
Ado's Stock Watch /\/
Decided to wrap up my takeaways from the week. Might make this a recurring thing if I feel like it.Teams gain or lose stock by telling me new information on how good they are(n't), or changing their postseason path by securing or dropping an important, chancy game.
* = Ignoring Garbage Time
↑
Recently, Green Bay has been a young team (and quarterback) that took a long time through the season to get going. If that ends, look out. This Week 1, they executed well on every phase of the game.
For a team consistently at the wild card fringes, this is not the game they were relying on to get over the hump. A great unexpected boost for their odds. I don't think they're suddenly favorites though. Rivalry games at home are winnable, and the Chiefs can be a bit silly sometimes.
I'm really cautious about drawing conclusions from beating the Dolphins, but I still did not think Daniel Jones??? would nearly hit 10 YPA.
Lol really? OK. Well done, I hope they do it against the Chiefs in the playoffs, the game this season that matters for this team.
Josh Allen Playoff Record (Vs. Lamar Jackson): 2-0
Josh Allen Playoff Record (Vs. Patrick Mahomes): 0-4
I always build up my hope for Atlanta to win this division and get Charlie Brown football'd. They didn't do it last year despite sweeping the series. Hopes are not high now.
Years Since Tampa Lost the South: 5
↓
This team reaches new gut-wrenching lows. Tua is still out there for what? To lose 30-0 to the AFC South?*
If this team wants to do anything, losing at home to a division rival who had everyone hurt, and who
isn't it.
This isn't as bad as it looked. They won't get 2 points per red zone trip next week.* They had, in spurts, many of the tools to win. They have a do-over at Ford. Regression to the mean. But it looked bad.
Stops on GB 3rd down (4+ yards to go): 1/6
Stops on GB 3rd down (3- yards to go): 5/5
No, I did not switch these categories by mistake.
Unbelievable. Hope they don't do that against the Chiefs in the playoffs, the non-division game that matters this season for this team.
Lamar Jackson Full Seasons: 6
Lamar Jackson Playoff Record (Excluding WC Round): 1-4
Division of the Team He Beat That One Time: AFC South
In the 4th quarter, the Titans were down 1 point with 1st and 10 at the Denver 24. Because they're the Titans, Cam Ward took took 2 sacks for 27 yards and they punted. But that's still not adequate. The media dark horse won't get that lucky against competitive units.
Honorable Winner:
Bengals finally win Week 1! Scraping by the Browns!
Dishonorable Loser:
Commanders need 2/2 goalline stops and 100% own redzone efficiency to beat the Giants.
My Top 5 (Criteria: SB odds on pure quality, ignoring path difficulty)
1 - Chiefs =
2 - Eagles =
3 - Lions ↓
4 - Packers ↑
5 - Commanders ↓
(Arrows show whether a team was a winner or loser, not whether their order in the list changed.)
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Chiefs still at 1? can't be serious..
still better than most people's power rankings ... looking at you: NFL Network, NFL.com, Stephen A Smith and Embar
Could go on with Lions > Packers after the Packers owned them. Commis on 5.. No Bills anywhere lol
We still have Monday Night Football’s game to go, but out of the 15 games we’ve seen so far, I suppose I’ve done worse. I never put any money on any of these following a recent decision to stop sports betting entirely I’m not even that bad at picking, I just don’t want to develop a gambling addiction looking at the slate I believe I went 10-4 so far, those losses coming from my Seahawks, the Dolphins seriously what in the world was that, the Chiefs, and the Falcons. Technically that should be 9-6 but I never finalized a pick for the Packers/Lions game (picks I forgot to make or was too conflicted on I consider as a loss) and the Bills somehow came back against the Ravens. It was a sloppier weekend for me in general since I was primarily focused on overnight plans with friends and already being busy on Saturday anyways, so it’s probably a good thing overall I didn’t place any bets. Speaking of, something about that Bills/Ravens ending doesn’t feel right to me, I don’t know why…
Biggest winners of the week for me include the Buccaneers and the aforementioned Bills as well as the Colts for the largest point differential upset of the week at an impressive 25. I’ll also put Green Bay on the winners list but I don’t know if one game is enough to help me decide what I think of either team in the long term. For biggest losers, Miami’s got to be up there, unfortunately I do think Seattle’s probably in that list too, and the Patriots for losing to a fellow fourth-place conference team at home. 49ers fans are having fun on social media over that game, in the meantime, and I didn’t get to watch any of it myself but Sam Darnold didn’t throw any picks and JSN’s doing exactly what I thought he would this year so I think we can build around this game and rebound despite me getting my game pick wrong.
Biggest winners of the week for me include the Buccaneers and the aforementioned Bills as well as the Colts for the largest point differential upset of the week at an impressive 25. I’ll also put Green Bay on the winners list but I don’t know if one game is enough to help me decide what I think of either team in the long term. For biggest losers, Miami’s got to be up there, unfortunately I do think Seattle’s probably in that list too, and the Patriots for losing to a fellow fourth-place conference team at home. 49ers fans are having fun on social media over that game, in the meantime, and I didn’t get to watch any of it myself but Sam Darnold didn’t throw any picks and JSN’s doing exactly what I thought he would this year so I think we can build around this game and rebound despite me getting my game pick wrong.
on a scale from 1-10 how embarrassing is it to lose to ai in a fantasy league
Probably not as embarrassing as it might sound. AI would probably pick players in a more consistent manner than in actual leagues, where some people auto-pick and others go off of projections and a third person might only pick players they like. Dare I say, AI actually sounds more fun to watch play this than people of varying interest levels in the sport. My own fantasy teams rarely all win on the same week and I believe a large part of that is because there’s no balance in our more casual league settings.
Think of it this way- there’s reason I prefer to simulate every team in a Fantasy Draft in Madden than pick a whole team myself. I would rather everyone start on a (relatively) even playing field with their rosters and build my team up with what the game gives me to work with. As opposed to, “let’s have one human player, me, and 31 CPU drafted rosters and the one human player dominate the entire league”. It just doesn’t feel as fun that way.
Hi! You all think I made a power ranking, which I get because that's what most people do. But that's not what I did. If I made a power ranking, some combination of "how good do I think you are" and "what have you done for me lately", it'd be something like this.
1) Packers
2) Chiefs
3) Eagles
4) Bills
5) Not sure here. Bucs?
I don't love power rankings though so I didn't do that.
My list is, do you have what it takes to make and win a Super Bowl. That's all I care about.
The Chiefs have made the past three Super Bowls in a row and won two of those. They've made five of the past six and won three of those. In the two years of the past seven they missed the Super Bowl, they lost in the Conference Championship game in OT.
I'm really confident they have what it takes to make and win the Super Bowl, so it's going to be hard to dislodge them from 1 on the list measuring that. One close loss, on neutral ground vs a (early-season) competent division rival, won't change that much for me. The Chiefs were flawed, but they've looked flawed and vulnerable in the regular season before, and then won or made the Super Bowl.
I also don't have anyone I'm comparably confident in to replace them.
- I'm quite high on the Eagles, but they're only two years out from an epic 9-32 Wild Card flameout. They don't have the consistent record of success the Chiefs do to make me super confident. Also, their narrow win at home versus Dallas was not super impressive.
- The Packers had an amazing Week 1, but they haven't made the Conference Championship game in their current Jordan Love form. (The Lions did once, 2 years ago.) They have a ton of potential, but they're a less sure thing to make it there, let alone to the Super Bowl.
I don't have the Bills on the Super Bowl-ability ranking because their current form under Josh Allen has never made the Super Bowl. I'm a lot less confident they have what it takes. Sometimes teams are good enough and just lose to another good team, and that is one possible explanation for the Bills failing to make it. However, Josh Allen has had seven tries to make the Super Bowl and made zero, giving him no opportunities to win it.
The Bills' win yesterday was very cool and fun, hats off to them, but we know the Bills can beat the Ravens, and we know they can do it in the playoffs too. I didn't learn new information that made me newly confident the Bills can make and win the Super Bowl.
I still put the Bills in winners because this game will help them in playoff seeding, making it more likely they host important games at home. I doubt the Bills, but I think they have real chances to win the AFC, so I do think home games can help them, especially since 3 of 4 losses to the Chiefs were on the road.
This is a young team that made the conference championship game immediately. They lost – by a lot – but they could have a Year 2 bump that puts them over.
They might not. They might get worse. The Commanders are certainly not the favorites to make it and win. Their Week 1 was also adequate but unimpressive. But someone has to make the 5 spot, and I like their upside, while the Bills (and Ravens) have a track record of not making it. You might say "the Bills (and Ravens) are more likely to actually get deep into the playoffs, which puts them in better position to win one important game or two, and make or win the Super Bowl." Maybe. I see the logic. I just disagree.
I hope this makes my thought process more clear. I get it can feel weird to see the upset victim #1.
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