I highly doubt that it'll be 0-17. The Lions and Browns teams that went winless were both plagued by a total void of good players and competent staff, and the Lions' QB room was massacred in 2008 (something people often forget or leave out — Dan Orlovsky was their third-stringer behind Drew Henson and Daunte Culpepper). The Bears have talent on their roster, and Ben Johnson is almost certainly not on the level of Rod Marinelli or Hue Jackson, no matter how much he seems to be on the struggle bus right now. That said, if they stay as bad as they've looked in their first two games, three wins might be a tall order.Yikes. That is a stat, all right. How bad of a team are we talking here? Was 3-14 too generous of me?
If anyone’s curious, the 2020-21 Jaguars have the worst record so far this decade at 1-15 and the Jets of that same season have the worst point differential over that same time span at -214. The 17th game added in 2021-22 could help the Bears out in their attempts to achieve peak pathetic-ness.
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NFL Thread: 2025-26 Season
- Thread starter adjectivenoun
- Start date
The Dolphins just don't have enough, man. That game made me sad.
4th quarter, 10 minutes remaining. The Bills are tied with the Miami Dolphins (at home!).
4th and 7. They punt the ball away, giving Miami the chance to take the lead.
Miami roughs the punter, and the Bills get an automatic first down. They then score a touchdown.
Miami drives down to the Red Zone to tie it, but Tua throws a pick.
For the second game in three tries, the Bills sleepwalk through 3 quarters (at home!) and set themselves up for embarrassing failure. The one game they played well for more than 1 quarter was against the Jets.
Do I think Miami is relevant now? No. Miami ran three touchdown drives, but literally every other drive was a 3-and-out (bar one turnover and one garbage-time drive). That's a fluky amount of luck in chaining your positive plays together, where you convert your effective offense into touchdowns with perfect efficiency. The Bills have no one to blame but themselves for allowing these drives, and for missing a 39 yard field goal, but Miami won't be able to rely on these types of failures long-term.
In short, no team came out of tonight looking good.
The Bills defense might be in a bad situation. Soon after letting the Ravens drop 35 in 3 quarters (at home!), they let the Dolphins drop 21 in 3 quarters (at home!).
I'm choosing to count the Dolphins' drive that began in the third quarter and continued into the fourth as 'in 3 quarters'.
4th and 7. They punt the ball away, giving Miami the chance to take the lead.
Miami roughs the punter, and the Bills get an automatic first down. They then score a touchdown.
Miami drives down to the Red Zone to tie it, but Tua throws a pick.
For the second game in three tries, the Bills sleepwalk through 3 quarters (at home!) and set themselves up for embarrassing failure. The one game they played well for more than 1 quarter was against the Jets.
Do I think Miami is relevant now? No. Miami ran three touchdown drives, but literally every other drive was a 3-and-out (bar one turnover and one garbage-time drive). That's a fluky amount of luck in chaining your positive plays together, where you convert your effective offense into touchdowns with perfect efficiency. The Bills have no one to blame but themselves for allowing these drives, and for missing a 39 yard field goal, but Miami won't be able to rely on these types of failures long-term.
In short, no team came out of tonight looking good.
The Bills defense might be in a bad situation. Soon after letting the Ravens drop 35 in 3 quarters (at home!), they let the Dolphins drop 21 in 3 quarters (at home!).
I'm choosing to count the Dolphins' drive that began in the third quarter and continued into the fourth as 'in 3 quarters'.
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...The Browns? Really?
I don’t know which is worse; the fact that we’re beating the Saints by 32 at the half or the fact that Kenneth Walker’s only got seven rushing yards. What in the world is going on? We don’t get this game so all I know is what I see on NFL RedZone and ESPN’s mobile app 
Sometimes I wonder why I watch games other than those of my own team, you know?
Bucs won at least but man that was a painful game to watch.
I was going to reply to this last night but it was getting pretty late by the time I saw it and I wanted to go to bed. Me personally I like doing this because more than anything I like to see people get along and bond over common interests. That is to say, sports teams have a way of bringing both the players and the fans together even if all these people may believe in completely different things in such a volatile world.
Different teams I like to watch for different reasons, too. I’ll always be interested in a good upset even if my team is on the receiving end of one, and there are few things more satisfying than seeing a team that’s been struggling for a long time finally take that next step. I have a number of friends that are NFL fans too; just off the top of my head I can think of fans of your Lions, the Bills, the Cowboys, the Saints, the entire AFC North, and every Florida team just to name a handful. Depending on who’s involved I’ve had fun watching games and talking about the teams with almost all of them. Heck, my own favorite team I originally only started watching because of a year of flag football and they’re on the complete opposite side of the country!
This is one of the ways the NFL sets itself apart from the other major league sports in North America for me- whereas I really only watch a handful of local teams in every other league combined, for some reason I can almost always find some justification to watch and cheer for almost any NFL team.
Looking at San Francisco
Almost. Say, is it just me or do the 49ers have historical rivalries with almost the entire conference…?
we can still make the playoffs even tho we are 0-3
I was spiraling mentally after watching SNF, but I appreciate the sincere answer.
Please bench Russell Wilson. He's so bad that it actually pisses me off. I required surgery after watching him get two players hurt on one hospital ball.
How dare you assume im a giants fan #PhinsUp
Sorry. Here's my recalibrated shitpost: Please fire Mike McDaniel. He's so bad that it actually pisses me off. I required surgery after watching the Dolphins once again fail to keep up with their opponent despite keeping it close.
If it was up to me he would've been fired already
Well, I feel like some coaching malpractice led to that game being closer than it should have, but we won! We won with no major injuries! I thought for sure this was gonna be a blowout the other way, so this is positively wonderful, and the pass rush! My goodness! The Lions are still good, I'm heartened to say. Still got some stuff to lock in, particularly with respect to game management and discipline, but I'm feeling good.
What. A. Game.
Who said Thursday Night Football can’t be exciting? I do feel bad for Cardinals fans, I will admit, but that was an excellent game. And how about the headline matchup of the game, two of the best wide receivers out of Ohio State in recent memory facing off in their first true WR1 vs. WR1 competition got really exciting in the second half specifically. The box score ultimately came down to the kickers but I know a Jason Myers walk-off scenario when I see one, even if the game realistically could have gone to overtime tied at 23. We played better on offense throughout most of the game and the defense continues to show why returning production is a major factor of why I bumped us up in my rankings between the summer and the fall. 23-20, Seahawks win, you love to see it. This is probably the best start we’ve seen from the NFC West since 2021.
Who said Thursday Night Football can’t be exciting? I do feel bad for Cardinals fans, I will admit, but that was an excellent game. And how about the headline matchup of the game, two of the best wide receivers out of Ohio State in recent memory facing off in their first true WR1 vs. WR1 competition got really exciting in the second half specifically. The box score ultimately came down to the kickers but I know a Jason Myers walk-off scenario when I see one, even if the game realistically could have gone to overtime tied at 23. We played better on offense throughout most of the game and the defense continues to show why returning production is a major factor of why I bumped us up in my rankings between the summer and the fall. 23-20, Seahawks win, you love to see it. This is probably the best start we’ve seen from the NFC West since 2021.
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I thought the game was going to suck and stopped watching at halftime. Why does this always happen to me?
If it makes you feel any better, I’ve done the same thing with two of the Lions games so far this season (provided the Ravens game was so I could get ready for work for the next morning, but still). So I guess we’re even now? Best of luck on Sunday- I plan on tuning in because you guys have a chance to do something really funny and make the Packers look absolutely pathetic.
I know this thread is focused on the NFL specifically, but seeing as college football has enough in common with the league nowadays in terms of how player talent is examined and how coaches are always going to and from both levels of play, I started thinking more about something that I want your opinions on. I’d love to see what you think.
When it comes to winning championships, it’s no secret that you need a lot of things to go your way. But you also need some degree of luck on your side, I’ve started to notice. Think about it. There is an absolutely insane amount of variability that can happen within any given football game, and in the NCAA we’re seeing more games than ever before that just do not feel like the top ranked teams are playing like they should be. The transfer portal is a major factor, sure, but I think one of the things that’s setting the best NFL coaches apart from these college coaches is their ability to discern and try and lead teams in such a way that, yeah, luck is still a factor, and no one likes a bad playoff loss, but true Super Bowl contenders are led with that variability accounted for by good decisions by the coaches and the GM.
Take the Baltimore Ravens, a team that has already played the Bills in a game that could have gone several different ways and have suffered two losses already. Their defense keeps caving at the worst possible times, and Derrick Henry’s coming off of yet another game where an unlucky fumble had an impact on the outcome of the game. The unsuspecting eye may ask why the Ravens have started 1-2 this season despite the high ceiling of their roster on paper, but longtime Ravens fans can tell them exactly what’s going on and why this doesn’t surprise me. Don’t get me wrong, I do still think the Ravens are a good football team, but I cannot call them elite anymore with how the defense has been playing and how the offense doesn’t feel flexible enough to adapt to adversity that may come their way and dampen the explosiveness of what could be one of the best offensive cores in football. The 2000 and 2012 Super Bowl winning Ravens teams both did not have this problem- those teams, especially the 2000 iteration with that historically strong defense that these Ravens would kill for, both had a certain mental advantage over tough competition that came from their flexibility and ability to recognize when certain things might not be working.
Compare this to a team that’s been rising on my radar for a while now- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel like an inverse of the Ravens in that they haven’t been very flashy or dominant in certain areas but they’ve started 3-0 because they’re consistent. It’s not for an easy schedule, either- Vegas betting odds claim they’re the first team this season for to be 2-0 as underdogs this season. I trust the mentality and the overall complete-ness of a team like Tampa Bay far more come the postseason than what I’m seeing from Baltimore and a handful of other teams and I’m starting to see some semblance of a future where Baker Mayfield is finally able to benefit from having a good roster and coaching around him and take that next step into a deep playoff run. The wide receiver room needs no introduction, Cade Otton’s coming off of a season where I think he was a borderline Top 5 tight end in the league and largely benefits from how shallow the tight end position is this year, and the run game has been solid early behind an often overlooked offensive line and one of my favorite running backs in the league in Bucky Irving. This is a versatile offense that can assist a struggling defense in tough situations while having a strong enough core that can break out with an easy remaining strength of schedule. NFC South teams have a history of doing incredibly wacky things in the postseason, and I really don’t think their point differential through their first three games tells this team’s full story. Even the defense has some good pieces working together and have less injuries than the offense, though I would like to see more big defensive plays (specifically sacks and turnovers) before I feel comfortable enough calling Tampa Bay true Super Bowl contenders like they were in 2020 and 2021.
This next stretch of games for the Buccs will continue telling us a lot about this team. They’ve got Philadelphia (weeks 4) at home before they have to take trips to Seattle and Detroit (weeks 5 and 7) with a home game against the 49ers in Week 6 in between. There is practically no shot they come out of this 7-0, but if they can even win at least two of those four, this schedule in the bag for them because their only real threat from Week 8 onwards are the Bills and the Rams- I think they can easily go 8-2 during their last ten if the defense strengthens up.
When it comes to winning championships, it’s no secret that you need a lot of things to go your way. But you also need some degree of luck on your side, I’ve started to notice. Think about it. There is an absolutely insane amount of variability that can happen within any given football game, and in the NCAA we’re seeing more games than ever before that just do not feel like the top ranked teams are playing like they should be. The transfer portal is a major factor, sure, but I think one of the things that’s setting the best NFL coaches apart from these college coaches is their ability to discern and try and lead teams in such a way that, yeah, luck is still a factor, and no one likes a bad playoff loss, but true Super Bowl contenders are led with that variability accounted for by good decisions by the coaches and the GM.
Take the Baltimore Ravens, a team that has already played the Bills in a game that could have gone several different ways and have suffered two losses already. Their defense keeps caving at the worst possible times, and Derrick Henry’s coming off of yet another game where an unlucky fumble had an impact on the outcome of the game. The unsuspecting eye may ask why the Ravens have started 1-2 this season despite the high ceiling of their roster on paper, but longtime Ravens fans can tell them exactly what’s going on and why this doesn’t surprise me. Don’t get me wrong, I do still think the Ravens are a good football team, but I cannot call them elite anymore with how the defense has been playing and how the offense doesn’t feel flexible enough to adapt to adversity that may come their way and dampen the explosiveness of what could be one of the best offensive cores in football. The 2000 and 2012 Super Bowl winning Ravens teams both did not have this problem- those teams, especially the 2000 iteration with that historically strong defense that these Ravens would kill for, both had a certain mental advantage over tough competition that came from their flexibility and ability to recognize when certain things might not be working.
Compare this to a team that’s been rising on my radar for a while now- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel like an inverse of the Ravens in that they haven’t been very flashy or dominant in certain areas but they’ve started 3-0 because they’re consistent. It’s not for an easy schedule, either- Vegas betting odds claim they’re the first team this season for to be 2-0 as underdogs this season. I trust the mentality and the overall complete-ness of a team like Tampa Bay far more come the postseason than what I’m seeing from Baltimore and a handful of other teams and I’m starting to see some semblance of a future where Baker Mayfield is finally able to benefit from having a good roster and coaching around him and take that next step into a deep playoff run. The wide receiver room needs no introduction, Cade Otton’s coming off of a season where I think he was a borderline Top 5 tight end in the league and largely benefits from how shallow the tight end position is this year, and the run game has been solid early behind an often overlooked offensive line and one of my favorite running backs in the league in Bucky Irving. This is a versatile offense that can assist a struggling defense in tough situations while having a strong enough core that can break out with an easy remaining strength of schedule. NFC South teams have a history of doing incredibly wacky things in the postseason, and I really don’t think their point differential through their first three games tells this team’s full story. Even the defense has some good pieces working together and have less injuries than the offense, though I would like to see more big defensive plays (specifically sacks and turnovers) before I feel comfortable enough calling Tampa Bay true Super Bowl contenders like they were in 2020 and 2021.
This next stretch of games for the Buccs will continue telling us a lot about this team. They’ve got Philadelphia (weeks 4) at home before they have to take trips to Seattle and Detroit (weeks 5 and 7) with a home game against the 49ers in Week 6 in between. There is practically no shot they come out of this 7-0, but if they can even win at least two of those four, this schedule in the bag for them because their only real threat from Week 8 onwards are the Bills and the Rams- I think they can easily go 8-2 during their last ten if the defense strengthens up.
Most of the time, I think it's coaching. Sometimes, as with Dan Campbell's first Lions team, you just have zero talent and need to build from the ground up, but most NFL rosters are not so poorly-constructed and devoid of skill that getting four wins is their inevitable fate. I think that the root of most floundering NFL teams is the coaches and associated personnel. The coordinator-to-coach pipeline is deeply flawed and only persists because nobody can think of a better approach; being good at scheming plays is one thing, but you need so many intangible people skills to be a head coach, and a ton of coordinators just don't have the sauce in this regard. Furthermore, while winning games understandably gets you a much longer leash, a lot of bum ass head coaches eke out enough wins to stay employed because of factors that they really don't have much to do with, such as roster talent — how many years of employment did Barry Sanders get for Wayne Fontes? Because NFL teams are owned and operated by billionaires who almost universally look at them first and foremost as investments, you also get a lot of nepotistic buddy hires and coaches being kept around too long because the owners simply don't care as long as the money is rolling in.
You talk about the Ravens, and I think Harbaugh is an outstanding example of this. The man may have been a great coach in his time, but he's past his expiration date, and his team has transformed into one of the most anti-clutch squads the sport has ever seen. However, he keeps winning, and he has the supreme talents of people like Lamar and King Henry (when he's not fumbling) to mask his deficiencies, so he never gets fired, even as his teams blow it in the playoffs every single year. Ravens ownership is content with the state of their organization, so he's not going away until they have a really dire season. Maybe this will be that season! The start is certainly inauspicious.
You talk about the Ravens, and I think Harbaugh is an outstanding example of this. The man may have been a great coach in his time, but he's past his expiration date, and his team has transformed into one of the most anti-clutch squads the sport has ever seen. However, he keeps winning, and he has the supreme talents of people like Lamar and King Henry (when he's not fumbling) to mask his deficiencies, so he never gets fired, even as his teams blow it in the playoffs every single year. Ravens ownership is content with the state of their organization, so he's not going away until they have a really dire season. Maybe this will be that season! The start is certainly inauspicious.
One of my favorite parts of the NFC this decade has been being able to watch the Lions rebuild and place Dan Campbell in a situation to succeed. Back in the offseason you mentioned most of the offensive core was still on contract for this season, and because the front office has been willing to make a lot of smart decisions it’s hard for me not to say the Lions have been overall successful recently. Yeah, yeah, I get there’s no NFC Championship to show for it just yet, and “that game” from the playoffs last year is annoying, but I don’t think one playoff loss should be considered a knock against Detroit’s coaching regime at all when realistically speaking, that Lions team probably wins that specific matchup 70-30 and were arguably the only NFC team with a shot against the Eagles should they have won that game. The front office and the managers did their job, and Dan Campbell has helped to bring a strong, winning mentality and culture to Detroit that I absolutely love to see.
They’re all cogs in the same machine, really. Without good coaching and leadership, players can struggle and lose confidence- we all saw Marvin Harrison Jr. after that one touchdown on Thursday night- but without good personnel and management the coaches can’t exactly do their job to the fullest either.
When I think of teams that throw a lot of money at their problems and expect them to go away, I think of the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that’s won 11 of the past 12 division titles but only has two World Series titles to show for it, one of those being in the shortened pandemic season and the other required a historic season from guys like Shohei Ohtani on record breaking extensions in 2024 (and they still didn’t win 100 games in the regular season!) Any hardcore Dodgers fan can tell you. If you were to place their manager Dave Roberts onto a team with a lower payroll and a lesser roster fueled by bad decision making, he would almost certainly be exposed as one of the worst managers in baseball.
It’s also about where the money is going, too. Looking at you, Dallas and Cincinnati. As overrated as Dave Roberts is in the MLB community, the Dodgers front office at least spent their big money they had in the right places. At least you can make a semblance of an argument that there are better head coaches and better managers in both of these sports than the laundry list of… what was the word you used? “Floundering”? I like that. Mind if I borrow this? The laundry list of floundering NFL teams that currently lack good coaching, good management, or some combination of the two.
My thoughts on tnf:
That's how you beat the Browns! Please ignore that our entire defense is getting hurt again.
Maturing is realizing that the Buffalo Bills might actually be the worst 4-0 team in NFL history, and I don't think it's a particularly close conversation. I know I said I'm really high on the Bills just before the start of the season and had them as my Super Bowl favorites, but I just found a crazy stat this evening that I don't think I've seen before. When I said the Bills had a really easy schedule for a Super Bowl contender, I was definitely not expecting to find what I found here.
Through their first four games, the Bills have a +43 point differential with a 12.2 out of 17 Pythagorean Expectation, which looks solid but isn't as impactful as what we've seen from teams past. It's actually about the same as my Seahawks for comparison despite us being 3-1 through four. What I didn't mention about the Pythagorean Expectation, though, is how you can actually take this rating and adjust the team's performance to account for who the team has played up to this point. And this is where things get truly disgusting. Undefeated teams have the same strength of victory as their strength of schedule because you have, in fact, won against your entire schedule thus far. But you want to know the combined win percentage of all four teams Buffalo's played so far?
7.7%. The Bills's opponents have gone a combined 1-12 through the first four weeks. And the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, and Saints currently have a combined point differential of -122. If you take the Week 1 Ravens game out, that becomes 0-10 with a combined point differential of -121...
What do these numbers all mean? +43 divided by four games gives you an average margin of victory of 10.75, but the combined average margin of victory for the four teams the Bills have won against is -30.5. That's... not good. (Provided, that would be -9.39 per individual game so it's not that bad.) The best possible Pythagorean Expectation you can have in the NFL is a perfect 17 out of 17, which makes sense because there are 17 regular season games and a perfect rating would imply that the average team with such a point differential would go 17-0 during the regular season. A 12.2 is solid early, like I said, but with a 7.7% strength of schedule and arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, I would expect these numbers to look much, much more favorable.
Edit: Oh, that's nice. It just went to 1-13 (7.1%) as I was finishing typing this.
Through their first four games, the Bills have a +43 point differential with a 12.2 out of 17 Pythagorean Expectation, which looks solid but isn't as impactful as what we've seen from teams past. It's actually about the same as my Seahawks for comparison despite us being 3-1 through four. What I didn't mention about the Pythagorean Expectation, though, is how you can actually take this rating and adjust the team's performance to account for who the team has played up to this point. And this is where things get truly disgusting. Undefeated teams have the same strength of victory as their strength of schedule because you have, in fact, won against your entire schedule thus far. But you want to know the combined win percentage of all four teams Buffalo's played so far?
7.7%. The Bills's opponents have gone a combined 1-12 through the first four weeks. And the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, and Saints currently have a combined point differential of -122. If you take the Week 1 Ravens game out, that becomes 0-10 with a combined point differential of -121...
What do these numbers all mean? +43 divided by four games gives you an average margin of victory of 10.75, but the combined average margin of victory for the four teams the Bills have won against is -30.5. That's... not good. (Provided, that would be -9.39 per individual game so it's not that bad.) The best possible Pythagorean Expectation you can have in the NFL is a perfect 17 out of 17, which makes sense because there are 17 regular season games and a perfect rating would imply that the average team with such a point differential would go 17-0 during the regular season. A 12.2 is solid early, like I said, but with a 7.7% strength of schedule and arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, I would expect these numbers to look much, much more favorable.
Edit: Oh, that's nice. It just went to 1-13 (7.1%) as I was finishing typing this.
The Bills have indeed been unimpressive so far. In their one game against a decent unit, they spent 3 quarters getting desecrated before receiving a biblical choke job, and then they played three basement dwellers and did 'fine'. This, with their perennial playoff underperformance, is plenty to be suspicious about.
But they are not among the worst 4-0 teams in history. Your stats have a sample size issue. The Dolphins, Jets, Saints, and Ravens are not an inspiring set of 4, but they will not continue to win games at a combined 7.1% clip. Even terrible teams don't do that. Like, the Dolphins and Jets play each other twice, that's two wins mathematically guaranteed. The Saints play the Panthers twice, and have been more competitive than expected. A full-season combined win rate like 33% would be a reasonable conservative starting point.
Also just, three multiple possession wins is meaningful, even against bad teams. Bad teams play good teams to one-possession games, or even win (hi Cleveland), plenty of times. Avoiding that three times is something.
But they are not among the worst 4-0 teams in history. Your stats have a sample size issue. The Dolphins, Jets, Saints, and Ravens are not an inspiring set of 4, but they will not continue to win games at a combined 7.1% clip. Even terrible teams don't do that. Like, the Dolphins and Jets play each other twice, that's two wins mathematically guaranteed. The Saints play the Panthers twice, and have been more competitive than expected. A full-season combined win rate like 33% would be a reasonable conservative starting point.
Also just, three multiple possession wins is meaningful, even against bad teams. Bad teams play good teams to one-possession games, or even win (hi Cleveland), plenty of times. Avoiding that three times is something.