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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 4!

jalmont said:
I mean in one day Peum didn't say much and certainly nothing about voting des. How can you go from defending des to retroactively being like "yeah i was going to vote them."
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Peum said:
Des played good enough last game im opposed to the policy vote
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Peum said:
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy
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jalmont said:
surely if you saw that des wasn't acting like their usually self, you would say that?
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Peum said:
yo ngl I was gonna vote but I didnt check the time and I assumed the votes would close later lol, u can check that I always posted at like 9 am to 4 pm here
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jalmont said:
the readslist is confusing to. how is your conclusion that...the only lean town is...neon ?
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The readlist is based on my subjective opinion combined with my view of the objective opinion, in the objective opinion I cannot say anyone would be able to be able to seen as town by now, but in my subjective opinion Neon's playstyle right now isnt to the benefit of mafia in the slightlest, in a day where mafia would be desperate to make moves, their playstyle hasnt changed. And so, I townlean them.
 
Peum said:
ok

Anyways here's my read list

I've been thinking for 4 hours on how to do this, because the information we now have is very limited. To find the mafia right now we would basically have to do a solve. So I am right now proposing three scenarios. These scenarios paint three lights on what could've happened on day 1.

Scenario One: Planned Execution
This is basically what Celever has been saying all day, Mafia had seen Des on their list of Mafia Players, and expecting how Town would lynch her quickly, they planned a Desperato. If town is going to do it someday, what if we do it today? The benefits of this would be Towncred which would hopefully last until the last day, the downsides would be one mafia member less and how quickly any role would be able to find them out, and by finding one of them out, their teammate would fall quickly.

In this scenario, the members of the town would have played it out this way. Care to say, this scenario's only important day was day 1, and so the readings will be done with only Day 1 posting

Perpetators:


Dead By Daylight: Dead By Daylight somehow convinced Des to make an actual play and accuse him of being mafia (let it be known, she couldnt even say her role properly when asked), I find this very unlikely, not because DBD would make this play, but because they wouldnt trust Des to do this.

Miyami: The main perpetrator, called for Des to be lynched Day 1 for a policy vote, got lucky and she was mafia, not much more to say than it could be a SvS scenario

Mixed Opinions:

Jalmont: No vote just helped the vote above
ShyPebble: Voted for someone with just one vote, same reason as above.
Genisu: idk if I like their posting

AFK:
AirC, Pulsar
Neon: He's also here

Pushed against the strat:

Phoopes, Celever: Pushed against the vote against Des, going after DBD instead.


Scenario Two: Mafia Clutch
After a failed attempt to try to save Des day 1, mafia has lost one of their members in an unlucky day 1. This has lead up to mafia trying to amp their towncred and developing into becoming the townleaders per say, where they're trying to salvage as much as they can, by different means.

In this scenario, the day that matters the most is actually day 2. So the arguments here will be made with day 2 posting.

Mafia:

Celever: With difference, the one who has the most weight in this scenario, with a difference of 1 page in day 1 and 4 pages in day 2, what has made him post this much? You could say that they're trying to scumread people or that in day 1 we didnt have as much info, but in this scenario they would be trying to salvage mafia by becoming the town leader.

Pulsar: From day 1 of no posting to suddenly arriving and posting a little too much, with surprisingly no suspicions of this, all Scumreads lists have placed Pulsar above scum, I really, really, dont like this. And I think its part of this scenario

Phoopes: I have to place Phoopes here, as much as I dont seem them being scum, they did help pushing the Des wagon away while posting much more than in day 1.

Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: I really dont like his posting. But not helping turn the Des wagon away, while voting for celever puts him in the mixed opinion category.

Genisu: You wont see me putting him in townlean in this scenario either

Dead By Daylight: Yes, I am putting him here. In this scenario I am not sure that DBD can be cleared, even his Celever vs DBD play could be a SvS happening right in our faces, but for reason of him having to orchestrate everything with Celever and Des, while still being a bit unrealistic, I will place him here.

AFK:
ShyPebble, ImaginaryNeon, AirC

Town Lean:

Miyami: Pushed for Des.

Scenario Three: Total Mafia Desperation
In this scenario, Mafia has given up. With des dying day 1 and them not being that active to have been able to stop it, it has ended up on them actually giving up on the game and just going semi-afk, this scenario is actually the easiest and the hardest, due to there being more than 1 afk player, we're basically playing shots in the dark. But sooner than later, their stratagem will show up on the late game. Which is why this scenario is the easiest of the three.

Mafia:
ShyPebble, AirC, Pulsar: Were afk and werent able to stop des being voted out/didnt want to.
ImaginaryNeon: He's like trolling or whatever, the selfvote shows why.

Mixed:
Genisu: Small amounts of posting after day 1, not a lot to go by, but still trying to do some scumreads so he's trying atleast.
Jalmont: Same as above.

Town:
DBD, Celever, Miyami, Phoopes, Pulsar: Still doing consistent posting, with consistent posts and reads being made.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What could I conclude with this, in which scenario do I think we are?
This is a hard question, after these 3 scenarios, my scumread would look like this.

Townlean:
Me.
ImaginaryNeon

Mixed:
Jalmont
ShyPebble
Phoopes
Miyami
AirC
Celever
Dead By Daylight

Scumlean:
Pulsar
Genisu

And the scenario I trust the most is happening would be Scenario 2

So in favor of discovering the scenario instead of following my own opinion, my vote would be

##vote: Celever
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hm.

There's a lot that I'd like to like about this post. I like the work of looking at different worlds -- by all means it's the same thing I was doing yesterday, and a large part of why I want to vote DBD (as I said yesterday) is to at least resolve the "was des bussed or not" question because if she was bussed DBD is responsible for it.

It's far more sensible for me to try to resolve the bussing world considering I also actually scumread DBD so I don't have to vote out town in order to close the possibility (which Peum by all means is claiming to be doing here, he openly doesn't think I'm scum and he's correct not to think that)

The issue with the worldbuilding here is world 3. World 3 isn't one of the potential worlds we're dealing with here. When you worldbuild in mafia you have to assume your enemies are playing well. Even if they're not playing well, they'll get caught up in one of the worlds anyway, but when you assume they're NOT playing well you're always missing a world.

Here's world 3:

Scenario Three: Kickback

In this scenario, mafia has seen town not directly going for them, and has decided not to rock the boat. This could be informed by IRL (maybe they're legit busy) or it's not and it's pure strategy, or it's a combination of both. No one's giving up; instead they're making an informed choice to let town fight amongst themselves without their input, maybe occasionally stirring the pot but largely staying out of the major fights of the day. This gives them maximum manoeuvrability moving forward, without having to put a stake in the ground and vote out town themselves today, improving their positioning in the longterm

Likeliest Mafia:
genisu, ShyPebble, AirC/joey, Peum, Neon

Still Plausible Mafia (interfacing but not hard pushing within the major fight of the day, since Peum's worlds are focussed on the thunderdome so this category has to exist for each world and he left them out):
- DBD (roped into the fight by me, didn't have the choice to slink back but could be paired with someone who is)
- Miyami / phoopes / jalmont (TvTing the thunderdome and focussing pushes elsewhere fits into this strategy)

Yup, that's most of the game.
 
Celever said:
hm.

There's a lot that I'd like to like about this post. I like the work of looking at different worlds -- by all means it's the same thing I was doing yesterday, and a large part of why I want to vote DBD (as I said yesterday) is to at least resolve the "was des bussed or not" question because if she was bussed DBD is responsible for it.

It's far more sensible for me to try to resolve the bussing world considering I also actually scumread DBD so I don't have to vote out town in order to close the possibility (which Peum by all means is claiming to be doing here, he openly doesn't think I'm scum and he's correct not to think that)

The issue with the worldbuilding here is world 3. World 3 isn't one of the potential worlds we're dealing with here. When you worldbuild in mafia you have to assume your enemies are playing well. Even if they're not playing well, they'll get caught up in one of the worlds anyway, but when you assume they're NOT playing well you're always missing a world.

Here's world 3:

Scenario Three: Kickback

In this scenario, mafia has seen town not directly going for them, and has decided not to rock the boat. This could be informed by IRL (maybe they're legit busy) or it's not and it's pure strategy, or it's a combination of both. No one's giving up; instead they're making an informed choice to let town fight amongst themselves without their input, maybe occasionally stirring the pot but largely staying out of the major fights of the day. This gives them maximum manoeuvrability moving forward, without having to put a stake in the ground and vote out town themselves today, improving their positioning in the longterm

Likeliest Mafia:
genisu, ShyPebble, AirC/joey, Peum, Neon

Still Plausible Mafia (interfacing but not hard pushing within the major fight of the day, since Peum's worlds are focussed on the thunderdome so this category has to exist for each world and he left them out):
- DBD (roped into the fight by me, didn't have the choice to slink back but could be paired with someone who is)
- Miyami / phoopes / jalmont (TvTing the thunderdome and focussing pushes elsewhere fits into this strategy)

Yup, that's most of the game.
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The problem with this is that this, indeed, still falls under my scenario 3. Staying out of the line is the same as giving up, once you and dbd show up as Town, mafia will have no target to defend themselves, and the mafia would fall like flies, and what do we do with the nightkill, kill one of Miyami/Phoopes/Jalmont? That is as obvious as it gets, letting jailkeeper have a 1/3 chance of stop your nightkill is not a good idea, its a frail strategy that once we pass like 2 days just makes the mafia positioning worse.
 
phoopes said:
Yeah probably

I think it’s just weird to say “this person is most likely to be scum” (genius) and then vote for someone else (Celever) lol

Like that is weird is it not??
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Dissecting the post deeper you have:

2. Dead by Daylight 1 mafia 1 mixed 1 town
3. genisu 3 mixed
5. ShyPebble 1 mafia 1 mixed 1 AFK
6. AirC joey 1 mafia 2 AFK
7. Peum (he didn't include himself in the post)
8. Miyami~~~ 1 mafia 1 mixed 1 town
9. phoopes 1 mafia 2 town
10. pulsar512b 2 mafia 1 AFK
11. ImaginaryNeon 1 mafia 2 AFK
12. Celever 1 mafia 2 town
13. jalmont 3 mixed

Interesting choice for me to be chosen over pulsar which would be the mechanical vote. Me and you are apparently equal, but he chose to vote me over you, too.
 
Celever said:
Interesting choice for me to be chosen over pulsar which would be the mechanical vote. Me and you are apparently equal, but he chose to vote me over you, too.
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Peum said:
To the second question, the problem with voting Genisu or Pulsar is that we cannot point out in which scenario we are by voting them out, voting Pulsar would mean that we're in either Scenario 1 or Scenario 2, which doesnt help us. And Genisu has a lot of scumposting, but its not the most suspect member of any scenario, Celever actually has the most suspicions out of anyone in Scenario 2, while being townleaned in every other scenario. (To put in context, DBD would be the most sus out of scenario 1 and any afk would be the most in the Scenario 3). So by what I said, I would have to vote Celever.
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Celever said:
I'm pointing it out but not pushing it. I don't push slips but others can do what they will with this
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what do we do as in "what do we do in this scenario"
 
Peum said:
The problem with this is that this, indeed, still falls under my scenario 3. Staying out of the line is the same as giving up, once you and dbd show up as Town, mafia will have no target to defend themselves, and the mafia would fall like flies, and what do we do with the nightkill, kill one of Miyami/Phoopes/Jalmont? That is as obvious as it gets, letting jailkeeper have a 1/3 chance of stop your nightkill is not a good idea, its a frail strategy that once we pass like 2 days just makes the mafia positioning worse.
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It's in no way the same as giving up lol. If me and DBD are town, once we both get voted out we're not gonna suddenly know who the mafia are right

At the moment the third person voted out would be genisu (who I do think is town so I'm happy to throw him in here), and then we're in MYLO? Maybe one more after that, where anyone could be voted out! Using the logic in these posts, why not phoopes? Me and phoopes are equal in your posts but there's no reason we'd have to be scumbuds together, so vote phoopes out next, get to MYLO, and then it's MYLO anyone can be voted out

Yeah with your kills I'd imagine you kill miyami first, then jalmont's a great option he doesn't look like he's being voted anytime soon. There's loads of skill expression and manoeuvring there, classifying it as "giving up" is just afactual

And because it's afactual it seems agendaed. I was really hoping you wouldn't double down
 
Peum said:
To the second question, the problem with voting Genisu or Pulsar is that we cannot point out in which scenario we are by voting them out, voting Pulsar would mean that we're in either Scenario 1 or Scenario 2, which doesnt help us. And Genisu has a lot of scumposting, but its not the most suspect member of any scenario, Celever actually has the most suspicions out of anyone in Scenario 2, while being townleaned in every other scenario. (To put in context, DBD would be the most sus out of scenario 1 and any afk would be the most in the Scenario 3). So by what I said, I would have to vote Celever.
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Sure so why not phoopes, who's exactly equal to me in a scenario sense?
 
The answer is ofc because me and phoopes being equal makes your plan fall apart (if I'm not unique in being able to scenario bust, which I'm not, then voting me out doesn't scenario bust at all. There's as much chance in an objective sense that the scumteam is phoopes + a slinker than that the scumteam is Celever + a slinker, so voting me out doesn't achieve anything)
 
Celever said:
The answer is ofc because me and phoopes being equal makes your plan fall apart (if I'm not unique in being able to scenario bust, which I'm not, then voting me out doesn't scenario bust at all. There's as much chance in an objective sense that the scumteam is phoopes + a slinker than that the scumteam is Celever + a slinker, so voting me out doesn't achieve anything)
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voting you out and you being mafia makes it likelier that we're in scenario 2 than voting phoopes out, who has less posting overall.
 
Peum said:
voting you out and you being mafia makes it likelier that we're in scenario 2 than voting phoopes out, who has less posting overall.
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ok but it doesn't preclude the possibility right

you can independently argue you scumread me now, even though you didn't before I entered thread and stated I was town, and sure you can play with probabilities

but you still ultimately need to vote out all three of me, pulsar, and phoopes to preclude scenario 2.

The only thing voting me out achieves is making the number of hardscum in scenario 2 equal to scenario 1. It's still less than scenario 3, either your version of scenario 3 or my version of scenario 3

like I'm just saying voting me out doesn't take one scenario off the table at all, which is the whole point of worldbuilding
 
if you want to remove a world, you would target the world with the smallest number of hardscum first, which is scenario 1. At worst we can vote DBD and Miyami out and take that world off the table completely by start of Day 4.
 
Celever said:
ok but it doesn't preclude the possibility right

you can independently argue you scumread me now, even though you didn't before I entered thread and stated I was town, and sure you can play with probabilities

but you still ultimately need to vote out all three of me, pulsar, and phoopes to preclude scenario 2.

The only thing voting me out achieves is making the number of hardscum in scenario 2 equal to scenario 1. It's still less than scenario 3, either your version of scenario 3 or my version of scenario 3

like I'm just saying voting me out doesn't take one scenario off the table at all, which is the whole point of worldbuilding
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I dont see your point, if you're scum the scenario is what I predicted and we can pass to voting the other two, if you're not scum then we can check in other scenarios to see who is scum.
 
Peum said:
I dont see your point, if you're scum the scenario is what I predicted and we can pass to voting the other two, if you're not scum then we can check in other scenarios to see who is scum.
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lets... refresh on the scenario:

Peum said:
Scenario Two: Mafia Clutch
After a failed attempt to try to save Des day 1, mafia has lost one of their members in an unlucky day 1. This has lead up to mafia trying to amp their towncred and developing into becoming the townleaders per say, where they're trying to salvage as much as they can, by different means.

In this scenario, the day that matters the most is actually day 2. So the arguments here will be made with day 2 posting.

Mafia:

Celever: With difference, the one who has the most weight in this scenario, with a difference of 1 page in day 1 and 4 pages in day 2, what has made him post this much? You could say that they're trying to scumread people or that in day 1 we didnt have as much info, but in this scenario they would be trying to salvage mafia by becoming the town leader.

Pulsar: From day 1 of no posting to suddenly arriving and posting a little too much, with surprisingly no suspicions of this, all Scumreads lists have placed Pulsar above scum, I really, really, dont like this. And I think its part of this scenario

Phoopes: I have to place Phoopes here, as much as I dont seem them being scum, they did help pushing the Des wagon away while posting much more than in day 1.

Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: I really dont like his posting. But not helping turn the Des wagon away, while voting for celever puts him in the mixed opinion category.

Genisu: You wont see me putting him in townlean in this scenario either

Dead By Daylight: Yes, I am putting him here. In this scenario I am not sure that DBD can be cleared, even his Celever vs DBD play could be a SvS happening right in our faces, but for reason of him having to orchestrate everything with Celever and Des, while still being a bit unrealistic, I will place him here.

AFK:
ShyPebble, ImaginaryNeon, AirC
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In this scenario you have:

3 Mafia
3 Mixed (could be mafia)
3 AFK (could be mafia)

Voting me out would take it to

2 Mafia
3 Mixed (could be mafia)
3 AFK (could be mafia)

It doesn't achieve anything.
 
Busting a world would make it so that we don't have to consider that world in the future.

Voting me out doesn't do that. On Day 3 with me dead, you're still gonna have to be considering whether we live in the world where mafia tried to save des, failed, and then picked up theior content on Day 2 to try and make bigger moves

It makes no tangible difference to the logic you're using, which is what you say you're basing your vote on, y'know?
 
By my count…

3 for DBD
3 for genisu
2 for Celever

3 not voting

6 to hammer

—-

Thank you Celever for realizing Peum isn’t making sense even if it’s at the expense of saying that we are equal in voting equity lol
 
Celever said:
lets... refresh on the scenario:



In this scenario you have:

3 Mafia
3 Mixed (could be mafia)
3 AFK (could be mafia)

Voting me out would take it to

2 Mafia
3 Mixed (could be mafia)
3 AFK (could be mafia)

It doesn't achieve anything.
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Yeah I think you're missing out on my point, Im not pointing out people individually and saying that they could be mafia or not, Im grouping different groups of people and saying that if we get one of them out we will be able to see if the others are mafia or not.
 
Peum said:
Yeah I think you're missing out on my point, Im not pointing out people individually and saying that they could be mafia or not, Im grouping different groups of people and saying that if we get one of them out we will be able to see if the others are mafia or not.
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In that case you're wrong lol sorry

If we vote DBD out and he flips scum, that doesn't automatically make Miyami scum

If we vote DBD out and he flips town, that doesn't automatically make Miyami town

What happened isn't seismic enough for connection reads to be this reliable
 
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