o/ I am alive, as I said before, this will be a post answering things questioned and clearing some important missconceptions that some of the posts show
I am not going to re-read 63 pages (sorry) but my understanding of the basic situation is this:
- Peum and Celever seem to be hard buddying / pocketing each other.
Yes, I do believe that Celever is Town by some stuff I will clarify later down this post
- It is currently MYLO and apparently mafia can idle the kill? I thought there were rules against that for stalemate reasons but maybe Celever or someone can correct me, I'm not the NOC expert.
idk this is my second game but I planted a bait yesterday intending for mafia to kill me yesterday which clearly didnt work
- Neon did approximately shit all this game.
This is not true. Yes, he did not read half of the game and posted once every eon but he had a spreadsheet marking every push until like day 2 which is not a lot but is something.
First question - do we even need to vote? I do not know the rules around that in NOCs either, but it seems to me like if the mafia is allowed to idle then we should be allowed to no vote and force them to remove someone (ideally me xD).
Mafia will kill either Celever or me, since I am sure Celever is not mafia, id prefer not to do this, as mafia did not kill to have more options in the table and I dont like meaninglessly expanding the duration of the game.
Second question - why are Celever and Peum buddying so hard? Why are you two so sure that each other is town? Given one of you was my hardest scum read (Celever), can you two please sell me on why the other is town, from a very cursory overview of the vote counts it seems like you both have consistently made terrible votes all game (last phase excepted, though everybody voted Pebble so that is NAI as far as I'm concerned).
Hello, yes. we've been accusing eachother of being mafia until like middle half of D3, this does not mean Celever is instantly not cleared, I've been identifying some patterns that I will separate into different categories
Category 1:
Safe bets
In this category goes the stuff that mechanically gives Celever towncred, which is often the most reassuring.
Case 1:
Celever Roleblocked N1: Celever was roleblocked night 1 by Phoopes, this was confirmed by Phoopes in D2 and is one of the most important clues of why Celever is townlean, as if they were mafia they would be Mafia Goon, meaning that they would have to make the roleblocker who was defending Des d1 kill that night in a game with Jailkeeper and Follower and while not roleblocking anyone.
Case 2:
ShyPebble Vote D5: I explicitly said in day 5 that I would be convinced by him if he told me to vote anywhere else, he did not say anywhere else to vote and so we voted Pebble, case clear.
Category 2:
Townleaning Proof
In this category goes stuff that I could be pocketed on, but have generally a Townleaning atmosphere to it.
Case 1:
Scenarios D2: In day 2 I separated everyone based on how I thought they would act if they were mafia, you could consider it half a solve. And I decided my votes around this, firstly I targeted the ones trying to get the most towncred by speaking and my major vote on who mafia was, which were Phoopes, Pulsar and Celever. Secondly, I separated the guys who could have been planning to bus Des, which were DBD and Miyami. And third were the people who were distancing themselves from these 2 scenarios, which was everyone else (AirC, Jalmont, Neon, Pebble) Genisu was on his own category of doing whatever he was doing, in short. I believe we're in Scenario 3, which as my prediciton goes, would be either Jalmont or You.
Post
ok
Anyways here's my read list
I've been thinking for 4 hours on how to do this, because the information we now have is very limited. To find the mafia right now we would basically have to do a solve. So I am right now proposing three scenarios. These scenarios paint three lights on what could've happened on day 1.
Scenario One: Planned Execution
This is basically what Celever has been saying all day, Mafia had seen Des on their list of Mafia Players, and expecting how Town would lynch her quickly, they planned a Desperato. If town is going to do it someday, what if we do it today? The benefits of this would be Towncred which would hopefully last until the last day, the downsides would be one mafia member less and how quickly any role would be able to find them out, and by finding one of them out, their teammate would fall quickly.
In this scenario, the members of the town would have played it out this way. Care to say, this scenario's only important day was day 1, and so the readings will be done with only Day 1 posting
Perpetators:
Dead By Daylight: Dead By Daylight somehow convinced Des to make an actual play and accuse him of being mafia (let it be known, she couldnt even say her role properly when asked), I find this very unlikely, not because DBD would make this play, but because they wouldnt trust Des to do this.
Miyami: The main perpetrator, called for Des to be lynched Day 1 for a policy vote, got lucky and she was mafia, not much more to say than it could be a SvS scenario
Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: No vote just helped the vote above
ShyPebble: Voted for someone with just one vote, same reason as above.
Genisu: idk if I like their posting
AFK:
AirC, Pulsar
Neon: He's also here
Pushed against the strat:
Phoopes, Celever: Pushed against the vote against Des, going after DBD instead.
Scenario Two: Mafia Clutch
After a failed attempt to try to save Des day 1, mafia has lost one of their members in an unlucky day 1. This has lead up to mafia trying to amp their towncred and developing into becoming the townleaders per say, where they're trying to salvage as much as they can, by different means.
In this scenario, the day that matters the most is actually day 2. So the arguments here will be made with day 2 posting.
Mafia:
Celever: With difference, the one who has the most weight in this scenario, with a difference of 1 page in day 1 and 4 pages in day 2, what has made him post this much? You could say that they're trying to scumread people or that in day 1 we didnt have as much info, but in this scenario they would be trying to salvage mafia by becoming the town leader.
Pulsar: From day 1 of no posting to suddenly arriving and posting a little too much, with surprisingly no suspicions of this, all Scumreads lists have placed Pulsar above scum, I really, really, dont like this. And I think its part of this scenario
Phoopes: I have to place Phoopes here, as much as I dont seem them being scum, they did help pushing the Des wagon away while posting much more than in day 1.
Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: I really dont like his posting. But not helping turn the Des wagon away, while voting for celever puts him in the mixed opinion category.
Genisu: You wont see me putting him in townlean in this scenario either
Dead By Daylight: Yes, I am putting him here. In this scenario I am not sure that DBD can be cleared, even his Celever vs DBD play could be a SvS happening right in our faces, but for reason of him having to orchestrate everything with Celever and Des, while still being a bit unrealistic, I will place him here.
AFK:
ShyPebble, ImaginaryNeon, AirC
Town Lean:
Miyami: Pushed for Des.
Scenario Three: Total Mafia Desperation
In this scenario, Mafia has given up. With des dying day 1 and them not being that active to have been able to stop it, it has ended up on them actually giving up on the game and just going semi-afk, this scenario is actually the easiest and the hardest, due to there being more than 1 afk player, we're basically playing shots in the dark. But sooner than later, their stratagem will show up on the late game. Which is why this scenario is the easiest of the three.
Mafia:
ShyPebble, AirC, Pulsar: Were afk and werent able to stop des being voted out/didnt want to.
ImaginaryNeon: He's like trolling or whatever, the selfvote shows why.
Mixed:
Genisu: Small amounts of posting after day 1, not a lot to go by, but still trying to do some scumreads so he's trying atleast.
Jalmont: Same as above.
Town:
DBD, Celever, Miyami, Phoopes, Pulsar: Still doing consistent posting, with consistent posts and reads being made.
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What could I conclude with this, in which scenario do I think we are?
This is a hard question, after these 3 scenarios, my scumread would look like this.
Townlean:
Me.
ImaginaryNeon
Mixed:
Jalmont
ShyPebble
Phoopes
Miyami
AirC
Celever
Dead By Daylight
Scumlean:
Pulsar
Genisu
And the scenario I trust the most is happening would be Scenario 2
So in favor of discovering the scenario instead of following my own opinion, my vote would be
##vote: Celever
Phoopes Wagon D3: This might seem contradictory, but yes. Voting the towny is the most town thing you could do in that scenario, Celever brought me to vote Phoopes instead of Pulsar, which was another wagon happening at the moment, what Phoopes was doing at the moment was something that a Mafia would do, he claimed a role that could not be proved two hours (or one idk) before deadline while at the same time lying the day before about "not having a role to claim" which falls into the lynch all liars meta of mafia, while at the same time having very dubious votes. This is not something that you hardwagon as mafia, you want to maintain the doubt on Phoopes while not looking bad doing so, the more he lives the more he has a chance of being misslynched on Mylo.
General way of acting D5: In day 5 I reached a conclusion, either we had 2 active wagons or town would not be able to vote together to lynch a mafia, this is something celever expressed on day 4 and helped me reach this conclusion
Inactivity breeds inactivity we don’t have much to analyse and have been stupidly disunited all game which means we probably lose
It’s 5v2 and scum aren’t gonna vote at EoD for each other if they can help it, which means we need 4 (or 80% of town) to unite on a wagon
In this town that seems unlikely, regardless of who the mafia are lol
I did some basic math and with some previous proof I decided to bet everything on Celever being town, as this would bring us a 1/3 chance of winning the game if we were voting randomly each time so I made the wagons Pebble and expectedly me (which did not end up happening), Celever had no reason to vote Pebble in that scenario, they could have pushed me (and jalmont would've been more than happily to vote me) or push neon, but they decided to think it a little in that scenario and after some discussing with him we reached the conclusion that we would be better of voting Pebble. If you doing this longposts by causing doubt between me and Celever "proves" that there would be no reason that you're mafia, this would also prove that Celever isnt mafia.
I'll just leave this here lol
##VOTE: ShyPebble
Who wants to vote out Pebble
Things that could make Celever seem scummy
Diverting the vote in D4 from Pebble: This one is easy, I voted pebble, if pebble were to have been lynched out he would have confirmed Phoopes not being mafia, Celever voted Phoopes so that gives him less towncred, case and easy. I did say that day that I would be fine with either vote as Pebble didnt have as much proof on her.
Third and most important question - you both seem to be accusing Jalmont at the outset of this day. As an observer, I read Jalmont as very pure town, way more town than either of you by a mile. I'm not excluding the possibility of voting anyone, but I need way more of a detailed case on why each of you think that, and I think it is unlikely that I will arrive at a Jalmont vote quite frankly. I think it is way more likely that one of you (probably Peum) is just being hard pocketed and pushed towards the easiest mis-vote.
This is still very unclear, we've been for a while on a 50/50 between Neon/You and Jalmont, proof would be things that lean in one way or another that could make one or the other seem more scum. In this scenario I cannot point to you proof would undoubtedly show that any of you two is mafia, but just chippets of it.
Finally, a few observations before I do a detailed analysis of the historical votecounts:
- The night kills seemed to be fairly solid while I was observing, i.e. roughly who I thought was very likely town each night. Unfortunately all three of you remaining are competent so it's not surprising that any of you could have been leading mafia throughout the game and arriving at these night kills, but I would like to go back and focus on whether any of you specifically town read or otherwise indicated that YOU believed those players to be town prior to them being killed.
I fairly believe that a jalmont kill would've been more competent than a DBD or Miyami kill by the simple reason that there were people accusing those 2, but not Jalmont, everyone considering him someone with towncred, and this also shows with you, someone who was observing the game and thought that Jalmont looked towny overall, why would mafia not kill Jalmont in this scenario if Jalmont wasnt mafia? something that would be cool to explore.
- All of you were consistently voting out town throughout the game SMH. I'll dive into this in more detail and maybe it's not as bad as it looks on the surface, but I really need to figure out why two of you were somehow town and still voted this badly.
Some votes were information based, some were townies that were roleplaying as mafia members by the way they acted and others had to switch last moment to prevent a tie (Which in this game just makes no one be voted!)
- Can people please post less rapid-fire and slightly longer posts? It makes it very difficult to navigate when the thread is being spammed with largely meaningless content / meaningful content split into ten separate posts and jumbled together with other minor posts from other players.
that is just noc
As mentioned, I think the next step for me is to analyze the historical vote counts, so I'll work on that. I would appreciate all of you reading the above and providing thoughts.
my next post will cover this
