Wow man, what a sub. that really complicates things a lot and the way Sam entered is totally different from how /I would except mafia!sam to enter which makes things more confusing for me.
my initial thought for the kill was that neon just AFK'd the kill, but I think it's also relatively likely that neon no killed in order for the sub to have a little more flexibility in how to approach the game?
the problem I have with any shyp + peum/cele scum team is that they played yesterday so weird like it seems really strange to bus at a junction where you have a pretty easy ML target in neon that's relatively pushable. you know I'm thinking we need to vote neon, so it seems pretty easy to just get two votes on their and hope for the best?
which is why I'm so surprised mafia!sam is coming in saying I'm the biggest town read and that peum/cele is the scum team? which, I don't disagree with but from a mafia POV you need to create a ML and based on yesterday, you know CEle/peum aren't voting within each other. so why not kill one and go for me? I don't quite understand it. then to come into the thread and start shading those two is a really interesting path forward because it just seems risky in the sense that if those two read your entrance the wrong way, then you are on the chopping block.
this is just not a good analysis of this day's vote regarding what I did. the vote was tied 2-2 when I voted for neon. the vote was absolutely not decided at that point in the day and was really decided by peum moving their vote to phoopes which forced a tie that was broken by neon self preservation vote onto phoopes. celever and SHYP both had opportunities to swap their vote to neon but didn't so how could you say the result of the day was already decided? really if you think about the vote being 3-2 phoopes (due to neon not voting but you can consider their vote on phoopes for self preservation) then I actually made a very decisive vote to save phoopes, which given that I was pretty much set on voting them coming into the day isn't a very mafia way of thinking when I could've just voted them there.
As an observer I objectively thought that you were the most towny of the three of you. After subbing in and reading a bit more I think I've come around to the idea that Peum is a bad vote / fairly unlikely to be mafia, and Celever does have very good explanations for everything he's done + is actively trying to solve, which I like and which I think is moderately hard to fake. The problem that is this wriggling doubt in my mind is that Celever is one of if not the best NOC player(s) on this site, and so it's not surprising that he has things planned out and a compelling argument for why you're probably mafia / why it is reasonable he is still alive / why he has been frequently wrong this game.
I don't particularly care whether Celever / Peum take my entrance 'the wrong way', as you put it, because ultimately I don't need an easy / riskless vote, I need the correct vote. Mis-voting me vs. mis-voting someone else is the exact same result in MYLO - an instant loss. As such, it is correct to play more aggressively and do everything possible to solve and put people out of their comfort zones. What I can say is that if my gut instinct was right and it's not you but rather one of Cel / Peum (usually Cel) who's mafia and we lose, the graveyard flame will be legendary to watch so at least it's not a total loss.
Regarding the day 5 analysis point (the paragraph starting with 'the problem I have'), what you have to remember is that the Cel + Peum combo were pretty much ride-or-dying with each other. If it is Peum who is town and he votes ShyP, do you really think maf!Cel is going to try to push against that? No, he's going to drop a vote and hope that Neon AFKs until he can stealth it at deadline. I think that is objectively the correct, least risky play from that angle. The evidence of this being the case is seen in the fact that Peum seemingly will not vote Cel today under any circumstances, whereas if Cel voted the other way yesterday he risks losing on the spot to Neon randomly showing up vs. an all-but-certain win today.
Unfortunately for you, it just as easily could be that you saw which way the winds were blowing, and knew that your only possible chance of winning at the end was to drop a hammer before Neon showed up, then convince Cel / Peum to vote for Neon the next day. That's pretty much what Cel walked through up above.
On this topic, there is also one thing in your post right here that I'm going to need you to elaborate on - your surprise at my subbing. It feels like you're annoyed about it a bit, like you had planned to push the Neon slot and are now discovering that that will be more challenging than you'd anticipated. Can you expand on that reaction for me? What exactly did you mean by 'the subbing complicates things a lot'? Are you saying you had always planned to go into today voting the Neon slot regardless of what else happened?
Regarding the day 4 analysis that you raised a concern on - thank you for pointing out that the order was mixed up, I agree that the vote wasn't totally decided when you voted. I still don't love that you sort of stated you felt it was a ML (in post 1,269) because it felt a bit like the shirking responsibility thing I mentioned in my analysis post, but I do think that this distinction makes you look a bit better on D4 than I had initially thought. Again, I read through a lot of posts in a short period of time when catching up so I'm relying on you all to check my work and point out what I'm missing.
Come on man lol
I'm sure sam is regretting his entrance town reading me lol.
You know what, I accept the tie. of course I'll keep going but I don't have above average confidence in our ability to win here. I guess we made the right vote yesterday so that's good enough for me even if we lose. we are probably not winning any game where peum or celever are bussing SHYP anyways.
##no vote
Not at all, I stand by my initial soul read on you as being reasonable and I'm glad you've finally shown up. I want to hear more from you. I do think your play today feels much more self-pres-y than Cel's though, which isn't great. But some part of me
wants to believe you, and to be fair there is more pressure on you than on Cel (or Peum, though as I think through things more and more I really do think if Peum is mafia here then I'm willing to just tip my cap, take the L, and admit he's a goddamn beast).
What I'd really like from you is a bit more of an argument for why the others are or could be mafia. All I'm seeing in your posts is self-pres basically with little to no solving, and without trying to push anyone in particular. Is there anything bothering you about anyone's play?
