Vote count / night kill analysis post. I will try to color-code things accurately to make it more readable and for my own sanity, but I am mildly color blind and also haven't been playing so may make a mistake in the color coding / recalling what alignment someone was. If you think I made a mistake in my analysis based on mis-reading something objective (such as what alignment someone flipped), please call it out.
Day 1:
AngryPidgeon said:
AngryPidgeon said:
https://countingdownto.com/?c=6796093
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to hammer.
des121 (3):
Miyami~~~, Evie, Dead by Daylight
pulsar512b (2):
phoopes, Celever
Dead by Daylight (2):
des121,
genisu
No Vote (1): jalmont
ImaginaryNeon (1):
ImaginaryNeon
Phoopes (1)
Shypebble
Not voting (3):
AirC, Peum,
pulsar512b
Day 1 mafia vote is pretty rare on Smogon.com, so good job to...all of the dead villagers who made it happen. In my eyes this would hard clear all three who voted des. The better / more insightful question to ask is this - who reasonably could have prevented this vote from happening who didn't?
Jalmont: Celever mentioned he is mostly just pushing majority wagons over the top / preventing ties. I do think that switching to one of the other wagons would have looked really bad if he knew des was likely getting flipped at some point anyway. But why not just switch onto the des wagon at that point? I think this is a plausible but unlikely play for maf!Jalmont.
Celever: Ugh alright gotta go look up where Celever voted for pulsar and how much room he gave himself to pivot...and the answer is he had some wiggle room, he kinda just jumped on an AFK inactive wagon after defending des earlier in the day, if I'm reading it right? And also got into a fight with DBD and ended up DBD's hardest scumread. Would maf!Celever feel that he had already defended des too much, and thus felt it was too risky to shift votes in such an obvious way? Again this is plausible, I would argue more likely than the case that Jalmont would vote this way as mafia.
Peum: Also defended des with Celever it seems like? Straight up didn't vote, I wonder if maf!Peum was ever just waiting to see if he could push a different wagon. I actually think this is arguably the most likely of the three options here.
tl;dr - all of you plausibly could've played Day 1 this way as mafia, though I think that Celever and Peum come out looking worse than Jalmont.
Night kill: Evie. This was someone on the des wagon, so pretty obvious and it could've been made by any of you. I will say that Evie said they liked Celever's play (how?) so you could argue the kill looks better for Celever than either of the other two. I only read like two Evie posts though, again I'm not doing a full re-read just trying to hit the highlights.
Day 2:
AngryPidgeon said:
Vote Count 2.7
https://countingdownto.com/?c=6801048
With 11 alive, its takes 6 to hammer.
Joey (4): jalmont,
phoopes,
ShyPebble, peum
phoopes (2):
genisu,
pulsar
peum (1): Celever
Dead by Daylight (1):
ImaginaryNeon
Celever (1):
Dead by Daylight
Pulsar(1):
joey
Not voting (1):
Miyami
Ugh. Just ugh. Jalmont and Peum wagoned Joey with a known mafia member. Celever made a nonsense vote - onto Peum though, which is interesting - re-reading now...Celever seemed to be pushing pulsar and Peum this day? Also Celever was apparently jailkept, so that does increase the mathematical odds that he is town by literally double if I'm understanding the math correctly?
Re-reading this day, it is very interesting that Celever and Peum ended up buddying each other later. But I'll get there when I get there.
I will note that Celever directly tinfoiled (in post 748) Phoopes being mafia which directly led to a later misvote of the town jailkeeper. So that's objectively bad.
Of the other two votes, Jalmont posted decent reasoning in post 701 and Peum kinda wagoned it over the top. Jalmont drove the vote more here, and ShyP jumped on after one other person had voted. I'd say that looks a bit worse for Jalmont than Peum all else being equal.
Night 2 Kill: Genisu. I am gathering that he was a claimed PR from what Celever posted? Unfortunately that does make this moderately NAI for any of you, it was just a very obvious shot if there was a free PR kill. Does Jailkeeper not block kills though in this game? Why did Phoopes not save Genisu if he was a claimed PR? Maybe these are questions for postgame but I assume someone asked and this was discussed already.
Day 3:
AngryPidgeon said:
VC 3.6
https://countingdownto.com/?c=6814253
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to hammer.
Pulsar512b (5):
ShyPebble,
phoopes,
Miyami~~~, jalmont, Peum
Phoopes (2):
Dead by Daylight, Celever
Peum (1):
ImaginaryNeon
jalmont (1):
Pulsar512b
The last post of the day is Jalmont saying 'I fully expect to be wrong here' and then him expressing frustration, which is interesting. I feel like this is a little more performative than maf!Jalmont would typically be, though the statement is weird no matter how you slice it.
Celever being on Phoopes was kind of setting up for the misvote the next day. Re-reading where the case was here...Miyami~~~ post 1091 saying Celever reads as mafia is interesting because I think they die soon at night right? Anyway, on to the case...it seems like his concern was that DBD had wagoned onto Pulsar the day before, and that he thought DBD was scummy? Per 1061. 1016 and 1017 are very curious, it seems like Celever and Peum went from voting each other to voting as a block that quickly? That doesn't quite track with what Celever had said about them townreading each other based on the prior day's reads.
Overall, the problem with Celever this day is that he's more than good enough to explain all of his actions. Everything individually is justifiable. It's just that the end result (him ending up off-wagon for a misvote AND setting things up to vote the jailkeeper the next day) is so godawful. HOWEVER...it does somewhat explain why town!Celever would be alive, because why kill someone pushing the town jailkeeper for you. So in a weird way it is a point both for and against Celever, but maybe even a slight pro overall for his towniness.
Jalmont and Peum pushing Pulsar over the top was the worst case scenario for town because it then led to the Phoopes wagon gaining steam the next day. tl;dr all three of you pretty much made the worst possible vote / argument combination for town this day. I think Peum's play is the most justifiable, though.
Night 3 kill: Miyami~~. They voted des and were scumreading Celever, I didn't see anything else of much note about this kill.
Day 4:
AngryPidgeon said:
VC 4.4
That is a hammer.
phoopes (4): Celever, ShyPebble, Peum, ImaginaryNeon
ImaginaryNeon (3): Dead by Daylight, phoopes, jalmont
The order of the votes is what I'm most interested in here.
Celever pushed this vote, plain and simple. Peum pushed it over the edge - if he had flipped, Phoopes would've lived. I would argue that Neon 100% should've been policy'd here based on his miserable activity, but maybe that would've just led to Celever pushing phoopes out the next day and causing a loss. Jalmont voted for Neon but the vote was already effectively decided at that stage, and he was waffling a lot / seemingly just trying to sheep DBD.
Being honest, this is the toughest day for me to read. I'm going to try to envision this day from each of your perspective's and see which one makes the most sense to me:
- maf!Celever the plan is clear - push out the town jailkeeper that you were setting up since the prior day, and push town to a LYLO. This is a very obvious level-1 strategy but given you sort of committed to it the prior day it is very believable that you'd plead mea culpa afterwards. Town!Celever this is also believable though, if you got it in your head that we were living in a certain world and got even more certain once the pulsar misvote happened.
- maf!Peum would be very willing to go along with a phoopes vote, and would definitely prefer phoopes dying to Neon, given the latter's inactivity. Peum was also the deciding vote. Town!Peum I could buy doing this as well though.
- maf!Jalmont...kind of makes sense. He seems to be skirting responsibility for any outcome and voted after things were decided onto the wagon that would make him seem less bad (again, assuming he is mafia and knows both are town but one is JK and the other is just some inactive). Town!Jalmont I feel like would have played this a little more proactively? This one is not a great look for Jalmont on a closer inspection tbqh.
One other comment: Peum was pushing ShyPebble this day as well, from the looks of an earlier vote count. As an observer I read this as false distancing between the two, but it also tells a consistent story with his behavior Day 5 if he is town. I think after a more thorough re-reading I am more willing to accept that this latter world is the one we are living in.
Night 4 kill: DBD. Again, a good kill. I think it would make the most sense from Celever's perspective, because while DBD was scumreading and arguing with Celever the whole time, they hadn't been as vitriolic recently (at least in terms of voting each other) so it would draw less attention to him. Unfortunately, I think that DBD is the kill regardless of which of you three is mafia, though, so to some extent it is NAI for any of you.
Day 5:
I read this day moderately closely, so don't need to go into it in as much detail. I do have a few notes I want to touch on though:
- Peum straight up voting ShyP is utter insanity if town, it was pretty much hard forcing a thunderdome scenario between the two and drawing all of the heat off of the other players. As mafia, it makes sense as a distancing tactic because you know one of you will win the thunderdome and then look squeaky clean the next day.
- I am moderately surprised that Celever didn't note that the vote HAD to be between Peum and ShyP once Peum votes ShyP. There is no other possible vote logically, the two must be either T/S or S/S because there was no hammer. Obviously Celever did end up deciding to go with Peum. Considering why he would do this as either alignment - as town, it makes perfect sense to go with your stronger townread. As mafia, it...also makes sense, because your goal is just to pocket Peum and win the game the next day.
- Jalmont ended up coming in and hammering once it became clear that all of the momentum was for ShyP to be the vote. On my initial reading I was pretty sure this was just because he was town, but on a re-read and in the context of the rest of the game, it's not as surefire.
No night kill last night could've been done by any of you, but I think it makes the most sense from Celever or Peum's perspective. After all, why kill the person hard buddying you, when you can plausibly avoid making the obvious kill?
Overall, my thoughts after a full re-read of the most salient points of the game is this:
- Celever surviving isn't as terrible for him as I thought it was as an observer. It's still not great (and a lot of the NKs seem designed to take heat off of Celever - Miyami, DBD, etc.), but it is less damning than I'd initially thought.
- Peum looks a bit cleaner than I had thought. I thought there was a decent chance he was pocketing Celever, but I am moving off of that world being particularly likely. It is definitely still possible, but if that's where we are at then I think we just lose.
- Jalmont looks slightly worse than I'd initially thought, as he was a lot more waffle-y throughout the game than it had seemed. I still liked his Day 5 analysis posts though, and want to see what his thoughts are (particularly on the Cel + Peum buddying).
I am going to catch up on the posts made more recently now.