We're not doing assumptions, we are saying to wait. You're doing assumptions.
I don't think we'll ever agree because to be blunt I genuinely just don't think Smogon is 'meeting the moment' to begin with, and see this as a bit tone deaf.
To put it bluntly: VGC is eating Smogon Singles alive and get with the fucking program and play ball or it will continue its slow decline. We have the stats and there has been a considerable decline of players compared to back in the Gen 7 days, VGC gets more polished and Champions is going to put even more eyes and focus on VGC.
WolfeyVGC singlehandedly had about equal concurrent viewers streaming Pokemon Champions PokeBall tier matches last night to Pokemon Showdown's active user count. On one platform (Youtube)
This general decline was one of the best argument pieces in this thread, with this post, here, that I very much agree with:
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...usage-based-lower-tiers.3762325/post-10925102
and others like this,
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...usage-based-lower-tiers.3762325/post-10896450
Essentially, I and many others have been pocketwatching and yes, Smogon tiers in general have been on a decline. Gen 7 OU had more games *the month after Sword & Shield dropped* than Scarlet & Violet OU had last month.
You can poke holes into these numbers. I'm no data scientist, there are more tiers every year, National Dex was only in its beta. Scarlet & Violet OU last month actually had one of its best months in years in terms of activity, and you can say XYZ factors as to why.
But none of any growth bump is permanent, and Scarlet & Violet started the generation with if I recall peak battle numbers of any generation, month, etc. ever. In 19 days there were over 2.5m games of Scarlet & Violet OU. In the December month there were over 3.4m battles.
Again, you can poke holes in these numbers if you like, but the story of the SV generation from the macro scale of Smogon has been pretty sizable decline despite an amazing start, and I believe that one of those factors is that VGC simply was more polished and had more attention economy than in previous generations.
If this site doesn't full-embrace Champions, I think it will lose the attention economy battle even harder. This refusal to play ball is so baffling.
Smogon is no longer in the driver's seat of what "competitive Pokemon" is, TPC and VGC are. If VGC is going to be played on Champions, then yes, Champions is the current competitive mainline Pokemon game, and that is what most casual or less informed players will expect, and frankly, what a lot of existing informed players will want is to try the new things over time also!
I'm not saying that the goal needs to be beating VGC to be clear, or even 'competing', but that we are objectively losing players over time while VGC is growing. Those might not be the same players, there are many factors etc., but Pokemon in general is growing while our metagames are declining, and I do not think 'business as usual' is valid anymore.
Exactly, that's what we did, and we are still waiting for proof that, in a mainline game, Mega Slowbro cannot Mega Evolve.
Like this is the kind of so eyerolly thing. It's so obtuse. We know that Mega Slowbro doesn't Mega Evolve from Galarian Slowbro. Because Champions is that game. That is the game. You can't just plug your ears and pretend Champions is just a quirky spinoff and not the future of not only likely competitive Pokemon, but this battle system as a whole, and people already thought this shit was weird before we now have confirmation this isn't how it works.
No one who isn't super deep into policy is going to think "Wow, it makes sense, Champions is a spinoff so obviously it doesn't matter!" when that game is the presenting competitive Pokemon experience.
Now, this post has been mostly about Smogon as a whole, but I will again say, I am not saying National Dex absolutely needs to hop onto the train immediately,
I have some mixed thoughts on this, and I think to get at why you have to start with the regular CG.
Essentially: Anything, including from any level of Smogon Leadership, personnel, admin, whatever, who actually thinks SV tiers are gonna be 'the thing' soon enough are coping. Champions is replacing the Generational format with a live-service model that is engineered to keep players satisfied with novelty and able to be balanced.
I believe that Smogon needs to adapt quickly, and I think National Dex has some things that give more nuances compared to current gen, where I genuinely believe it's simply Do or Die.
1. Simulator Development
As far as I understand, National Dex has been like regular generational formats developed in one big slew of adaptations and then just tiering updates. Champions wouldn't allow this, and I do think it needs to be noted the extra volunteer bandwidth that may be required for National Dex to follow Champions. If Champions changes some mechanics, which, they already have been (and in fact changed one [albeit it was a bug] within two days of release). I am simply worried that this may make it a non-starter, but I'm optimistic that that is wrong.
Ultimately, to be up to date would require more work on the backend, and likely policy in some changes that Champions hasn't gotten to updating yet, and I am not sure how much bandwidth is available.
2. Casual Tier
I don't think it's that controversial to say that National Dex has a very strong casual following compared to most if not all other tiers on this site, and that isn't necessarily an issue. There's a small Catch 22 where I believe that casual appeal 100% comes from the ability to use all of the fan-favorites, but I also wonder if casual players would also not mind as much waiting longer, especially as Champions will likely take a long time to adapt the dex, if Pokemon Go means anything.
Essentially: While the shiny new Megas would not be in NatDex for a while, Champions I think has many Megas that aren't even in Champions, either, at least for now; let alone the like eight-hundred Pokemon left.
3. When To Start?
I think that considering it's taken this long (literally 'this', the server just went down to add in Champions OU) to do the one that is Do or Die, with Point 1 I am pretty concerned at how near in the future this could even be done.
I believe that it'd be easier to wait until there is more availability and a lull in order to truly push for a 'Champions National Dex' of sorts, rather than immediately and likely have a lot of bugs or issues.
I also think that with both the VGC and Smogon formats going to be taking up a lot of attention, it's not much of a big deal. That Point 2 didn't come because National Dex dropped quickly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC SWSH National Dex dropped months post-launch. I can faintly remember those Dynamax Landorus-Therian Max Airstream -> Max Quake days now..
4. 'Gen 9 National Dex Patch vs. Champions National Dex'
The second. I think that it'll be easier long-term to have it branded as Champions with those updates and leave the room for a Gen 10, which is almost certainly going to be at best a sidegrade from Champions in terms of push for competitive play, with Champions intended as the new home for competitive Pokemon officially.
Basically:
-Gen 10 National Dex may want its own home?
-Gen 9 National Dex would be the predecessor to that
-Champions National Dex will likely get live-service-made updates a lot, which would possibly disrupt tournament play, honestly, and also probably fuck with a lot of the existing tiering. Keep it separate, or as "Gen 9.5" replacement with Gen 9 National Dex still available for tournament play.
Essentially, treat it like how SWSH HOME OU was handled in the transition to Isle of Armor, except not as a full replacement.
These are just my thoughts. Apologies for any rambling, but I really like NatDex and it's the only tier I've cared enough to get reqs for, so I have Thoughts.
In Summary:
I both think Champions is the future yet also don't think Gen 9 NationalDex should be paved over, nor do I think a quick transition is both possible and able to be polished. I believe that NatDex is uniquely positioned to be able to tank a hit for some time, and any hit it may take was likely always to happen due to two major formats dropping.
but also making Champions OU a secondary ladder is the compromise. Because we all should in this conversation intuitively understand that Champions as a live service game will be getting updates post-Gen 10, if Gen 10 even uses the same battle mechanics, we can then have Gen 10 NatDex as the spiritual successor. In this case, Gen 9 NatDex being separate also allows tournaments to continue as expected.
But I'm not going to pretend we do not know that Champions is the flagship competitive Pokemon experience now and until the future. And I'm not going to say it's valid or makes any sense from a policy angle to plug our ears and wait until Gen 10. We are at a point of fighting decline in Smogon, not growth or maintaining, and not putting in more resources to update to Champions is going to only create more decline over time.
And I think we should all agree that's bad, and that we want the NationalDex/Generally Smogon scene to grown and not decline, and that these factors absolutely should play into decisions on this kind of thing, like it or not. I do not think NatDex needs to right this second becoming Champions NatDex, but we need to embrace it at some point, and that some point needs to be pretty soon.