I’d like for at least dex’s proposal be included, otherwise we have no options that remove bpress without adding defog.
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CAP 37 - Part 17 - Post Play Lookback
- Thread starter spoo
- Start date
- Status
Are we going to be voting on how to nerf it? I apologize for the question I am just new to the cap process.
I think this is something that we really have to consider in future projects because it sounds obvious in retrospect. We designed our stats with certain thresholds in mind, and it's to no surprise that when we add a stat-boosting secondary ability after the fact, we end up with something that is considerably stronger than expected.
Just out of curiosity, I took a quick look at all the past CAPs, and interestingly, we have miraculously avoided this for all 36 previous CAPs. So while I was rather against Analytics in the Secondary discussions, I think the current timeline where it wins the vote and gets removed actually teaches us an invaluable lesson we would never have had if something else won the Secondary votes.
As far as inclusions go, I think I want to include a variant that drops Obliterix's Spe instead of a defensive stat. A lowered speed tier adds Prima/Clef/Ttar to the list of mons that could threaten sets without Spe investment, and being pushed to run more Spe EV indirectly means less investment into our power/bulk.
I like Poosh_i's suggestion because -SR +Defog changes its interaction with Clef/Ttar that appeals to me, but I do see traceyscetchit's spread being a more minimalistic take at the same concept.
The conversation of Defog vs Rocks came up on Discord yesterday, so I'd like to elaborate on why I think SR is worth replacing with Defog. This is admittedly one of the more minor and less "necessary" changes compared to something like -Analytic (which most people seem to agree on, thankfully). Still, Obli's role in the hazard game is evidently something people have very different opinions about. I'll provide some relevant statistical information along with my own point of view in more depth.
My stance:
1. Contribution to the hazard game is integral to Obliteryx's kit
2. Replacing SR with Defog would 1. nerf viability, 2. reduce uncompetitive elements, and 3. benefit overall metagame health
1.
Some people may question how important SR really is to Obliteryx's toolkit. A replay analysis of CAPPL shows us that 19 Obliteryx revealed Stealth Rock out of its 72 total brings, a minimum SR usage of 26.39%. An additional 22 Obliteryx teams did not reveal Stealth Rock at all, meaning we have a theoretical maximum of 41 SR Obliteryx (56.94%). However, we can narrow this down:
This brings us to an assumed 30 SR Obliteryx out of 72, or 41.66%. Additionally, out of the 19 revealed SR (I don't feel like manually counting the winrate for the rest), it displayed a winrate of 63% - this also includes mirror matches, which is important becaues Obliteryx was the #1 most-used Pokemon in the tournament by far. This is all to say that hazard tools are undoubtedly important for Obliteryx's current functioning.
There is an alternate universe where we never gave Obliteryx any hazard game tools and it ended up still being a pretty good mon. However, that's not the timeline we live in. Stealth Rock is the most used 4th moveslot on Obliteryx by far, and removing it without any compensation would be a nerf that's difficult to quantify or accurately predict. I think it's a larger nerf than many people believe, especially coupled with other nerfs like -Analytic and -stats. We've seen in the past how rapidly these nerfs can compound on each other. Obliteryx isn't terribly far off where it should be, especially after removing Analytic, and I believe that killing its ability to contribute to the hazard game is too major an adjustment. I don't take issue with Obli having Stealth Rock. My argument is that if Obli is to have access to hazard tools, which it should, then Defog is a more sensible fit.
2.
Defog > SR is a small viability nerf, would reduce uncompetitive elements to the mon, and is beneficial to the metagame at large.
Obli is a great rocker for a couple reasons, but the big one is its matchup into CAP's removal options. Out of the current common hazard removers - Libra, Mollux, Snael, Tusk, Gweez, Corv - only Galarian Weezing can (semi)reliably switch into Obliteryx. Or Corv, but you're going to get burned and be food for something else. None of the other mons really want to deal with this guy. This is especially true for many offensive teams; Screens, for example, can only stop Obli's rocks by making large sacrifices (e.g. taunting with Deo in exchange for your life, counterleading with a sweeper before it's properly positioned, etc), or by making a series of correct plays that are weighted in Obiteryx's favor. However, Obli's matchup into our best hazard setters is a different story: Clef, Garg, and Gliscor can switch in fairly well. TTar and Venom are more niche but also worth mentioning. Additionally, Defog is suboptimal removal for Spikestack structures since they clear your own hazards. I think Obliteryx would be a powerful Defogger - it's unblockable, and we still match up well into many setters - but less oppressive overall than as a setter.
When talking about uncompetitive elements to Obliteryx, I'm mostly referring to its Red Card set. These sets were mostly run on BO/offense (1, 2, 3) and commonly ran SR, especially towards the end of CAPPL. Red Card on hazard setter leads is tried and true - see Shuckle, Araquanid, Ting Lu (and more). I find these sets obnoxious because they remove agency from the player facing Obliteryx. If you have a team with Dragapult, Great Tusk, and Ogerpon-W, three out of your five back members could get randomly OHKOd depending on what Obliteryx clicks and what the Red Card pull is. These sets aren't overpowered, but they are neither a healthy nor competitive feature of Obliteryx, and replacing Stealth Rock would help curb their usage.
Finally, I think the meta would appreciate another good Defog user. Maybe you believe that the purpose of this stage isn't to address meta concerns, and is only to address what is or isn't working with the individual mon. That's totally fine and you can disregard this point, the previous two still stand. I'd argue that individual concerns and meta concerns go hand in hand, though. The meta is skewed heavily in favor of hazard setters right now - look at how many good setters (and spinblockers!) vs good removers we have. Another consistent removal option would open up structures that weren't really possible before. I think it'd be a good thing for the tier and for Obliteryx.
I believe all three of these things are goals worth pursuing in this stage. Replacing SR with Defog is not a buff, nor is it "random" or "pointless" or "purposeless." I'll concede that it's not "necessary" per se, but neither are proposals that cut things like Body Press or Encore. If we did the bare minimum of Necessary changes, we wouldn't touch anything beyond Analytic and stats. -SR +Defog is nonetheless a positive and beneficial adjustment.
My stance:
1. Contribution to the hazard game is integral to Obliteryx's kit
2. Replacing SR with Defog would 1. nerf viability, 2. reduce uncompetitive elements, and 3. benefit overall metagame health
1.
Some people may question how important SR really is to Obliteryx's toolkit. A replay analysis of CAPPL shows us that 19 Obliteryx revealed Stealth Rock out of its 72 total brings, a minimum SR usage of 26.39%. An additional 22 Obliteryx teams did not reveal Stealth Rock at all, meaning we have a theoretical maximum of 41 SR Obliteryx (56.94%). However, we can narrow this down:
Games in which Obliteryx revealed all four moves w/o SR:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-959191
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-957255
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953074
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-940823?p2
Other games we can mark off definitively:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-955533
SR Mollux, Sucker Obli (I have the paste)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-947227
Rockless, Taunt Obli (he was on my team)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-944279
SR Tusk (I asked Leroi)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948882
SR Gliscor (I asked baddy)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-941480
SR Deo (I asked baddy)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953280
SR Obli (I asked baddy)
(1 SR Obli, 9 not)
My subjective review of the remaining games:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-959177
Only other potential rocker is Snael, but it's SD; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-957680
Obli revealed Sucker, implying no SR
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953317
Obli is the only possible rocker; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-951316
Obli is the only possible rocker unless random SR Stratagem; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-950250
Obli is the only possible rocker since Garg revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-949486
Shadow revealed SD Snael + Rockless Glisc, implying SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948927
Obli is the only possible rocker; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948808
Obli is the only possible rocker unless relying on CC Ace as your hazard setter; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-946626
Weird one - Obli is sucker, implying Rockless, but it revealed Banded damage on Strata. CB can easily run SR since there's not really a better 4th move, and if supported by CC Ace, you can kinda pretend you have real hazard pressure. Tentatively assuming SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-941480
Obli is the only possible rocker since Snael revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-951122?p2
Somewhat hard to say, but I'd be surprised if Treads wasn't SR since the only reason to use that guy is big role compression. Probably not SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9cap-2626233431-n593o6usaansl7em45rdet421pwmrprpw
Obli is the only possible rocker since Snael revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
(10 SR Obli, 2 not)
Total: 11 SR obli, 11 not
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-959191
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-957255
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953074
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-940823?p2
Other games we can mark off definitively:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-955533
SR Mollux, Sucker Obli (I have the paste)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-947227
Rockless, Taunt Obli (he was on my team)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-944279
SR Tusk (I asked Leroi)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948882
SR Gliscor (I asked baddy)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-941480
SR Deo (I asked baddy)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953280
SR Obli (I asked baddy)
(1 SR Obli, 9 not)
My subjective review of the remaining games:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-959177
Only other potential rocker is Snael, but it's SD; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-957680
Obli revealed Sucker, implying no SR
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-953317
Obli is the only possible rocker; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-951316
Obli is the only possible rocker unless random SR Stratagem; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-950250
Obli is the only possible rocker since Garg revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-949486
Shadow revealed SD Snael + Rockless Glisc, implying SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948927
Obli is the only possible rocker; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-948808
Obli is the only possible rocker unless relying on CC Ace as your hazard setter; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-946626
Weird one - Obli is sucker, implying Rockless, but it revealed Banded damage on Strata. CB can easily run SR since there's not really a better 4th move, and if supported by CC Ace, you can kinda pretend you have real hazard pressure. Tentatively assuming SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-941480
Obli is the only possible rocker since Snael revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9cap-951122?p2
Somewhat hard to say, but I'd be surprised if Treads wasn't SR since the only reason to use that guy is big role compression. Probably not SR Obli
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9cap-2626233431-n593o6usaansl7em45rdet421pwmrprpw
Obli is the only possible rocker since Snael revealed all 4; likely SR Obli
(10 SR Obli, 2 not)
Total: 11 SR obli, 11 not
This brings us to an assumed 30 SR Obliteryx out of 72, or 41.66%. Additionally, out of the 19 revealed SR (I don't feel like manually counting the winrate for the rest), it displayed a winrate of 63% - this also includes mirror matches, which is important becaues Obliteryx was the #1 most-used Pokemon in the tournament by far. This is all to say that hazard tools are undoubtedly important for Obliteryx's current functioning.
There is an alternate universe where we never gave Obliteryx any hazard game tools and it ended up still being a pretty good mon. However, that's not the timeline we live in. Stealth Rock is the most used 4th moveslot on Obliteryx by far, and removing it without any compensation would be a nerf that's difficult to quantify or accurately predict. I think it's a larger nerf than many people believe, especially coupled with other nerfs like -Analytic and -stats. We've seen in the past how rapidly these nerfs can compound on each other. Obliteryx isn't terribly far off where it should be, especially after removing Analytic, and I believe that killing its ability to contribute to the hazard game is too major an adjustment. I don't take issue with Obli having Stealth Rock. My argument is that if Obli is to have access to hazard tools, which it should, then Defog is a more sensible fit.
2.
Defog > SR is a small viability nerf, would reduce uncompetitive elements to the mon, and is beneficial to the metagame at large.
Obli is a great rocker for a couple reasons, but the big one is its matchup into CAP's removal options. Out of the current common hazard removers - Libra, Mollux, Snael, Tusk, Gweez, Corv - only Galarian Weezing can (semi)reliably switch into Obliteryx. Or Corv, but you're going to get burned and be food for something else. None of the other mons really want to deal with this guy. This is especially true for many offensive teams; Screens, for example, can only stop Obli's rocks by making large sacrifices (e.g. taunting with Deo in exchange for your life, counterleading with a sweeper before it's properly positioned, etc), or by making a series of correct plays that are weighted in Obiteryx's favor. However, Obli's matchup into our best hazard setters is a different story: Clef, Garg, and Gliscor can switch in fairly well. TTar and Venom are more niche but also worth mentioning. Additionally, Defog is suboptimal removal for Spikestack structures since they clear your own hazards. I think Obliteryx would be a powerful Defogger - it's unblockable, and we still match up well into many setters - but less oppressive overall than as a setter.
When talking about uncompetitive elements to Obliteryx, I'm mostly referring to its Red Card set. These sets were mostly run on BO/offense (1, 2, 3) and commonly ran SR, especially towards the end of CAPPL. Red Card on hazard setter leads is tried and true - see Shuckle, Araquanid, Ting Lu (and more). I find these sets obnoxious because they remove agency from the player facing Obliteryx. If you have a team with Dragapult, Great Tusk, and Ogerpon-W, three out of your five back members could get randomly OHKOd depending on what Obliteryx clicks and what the Red Card pull is. These sets aren't overpowered, but they are neither a healthy nor competitive feature of Obliteryx, and replacing Stealth Rock would help curb their usage.
Finally, I think the meta would appreciate another good Defog user. Maybe you believe that the purpose of this stage isn't to address meta concerns, and is only to address what is or isn't working with the individual mon. That's totally fine and you can disregard this point, the previous two still stand. I'd argue that individual concerns and meta concerns go hand in hand, though. The meta is skewed heavily in favor of hazard setters right now - look at how many good setters (and spinblockers!) vs good removers we have. Another consistent removal option would open up structures that weren't really possible before. I think it'd be a good thing for the tier and for Obliteryx.
I believe all three of these things are goals worth pursuing in this stage. Replacing SR with Defog is not a buff, nor is it "random" or "pointless" or "purposeless." I'll concede that it's not "necessary" per se, but neither are proposals that cut things like Body Press or Encore. If we did the bare minimum of Necessary changes, we wouldn't touch anything beyond Analytic and stats. -SR +Defog is nonetheless a positive and beneficial adjustment.
Out of curiosity,how is defog over stealth rock a viability nerf? Wouldn't it be a buff because of the fact it can remove hazards now?
Im personally all for your change,but i dont get the logic of defog being a nerf and not a buff.
My final slate includes the following packages:
-Analytic, -Body Press, -Stealth Rock, +Defog, +NCA
-Analytic, -Stealth Rock, -7HP, -5SpDef, +2SpAtk, +Defog, +NCA
-Analytic, -12SpDef, +NCA
-Analytic, -Body Press, -Encore, -10HP, +NCA
That would be quziel, spoo, Guingil, and Brigtel's submissions, respectively.
That concludes the competitive stages of CAP37. Thank you all for the ride.
Signing off,
EARTHFLAX
-Analytic, -Body Press, -Stealth Rock, +Defog, +NCA
-Analytic, -Stealth Rock, -7HP, -5SpDef, +2SpAtk, +Defog, +NCA
-Analytic, -12SpDef, +NCA
-Analytic, -Body Press, -Encore, -10HP, +NCA
That would be quziel, spoo, Guingil, and Brigtel's submissions, respectively.
My slate remains unchanged from the preliminary slate, save for replacing Zetalz's submission with Brigtel's. My rationale for that substitution is that both subs are largely very similar, and, while the 2 differentiating factors of -BP and -Encore likely don't move the needle a whole ton on Obli's viability, removing them altogether is good to allow checks like Tyranitar to remain consistent checks.
I didn't think it to be very productive to entertain packages that kept Analytic. It's pretty clear to me that Analytic is the aspect of Obliteryx that has led to the most deviation from its intended role in the last two months, despite it being an ostensibly pro-concept Ability. Moreover, I would like to avoid taking shots in the dark as much as possible in a stage that carries the level of finality that this one does, and packages such as Spammernoob's and Rysachi's that keep Analytic have a bit too much uncertainty for me to be comfortable with.
Lastly, on Defog and Stealth Rocks: I am intentionally ensuring, in this slate, that Obliteryx retains access to one of either Stealth Rock or Defog, but not both. I understand the viewpoint of folks who are anti-Defog, but I view the swap to be a fairly simple change that slightly hits the 'mon's viability (especially in the roles where it was causing the most trouble w/competitiveness and were the least expected) while also keeping its role in the hazard game, and it's certainly a much more educated guess than ascertaining the future of some other packages: we know Obliteryx has a significant role in the hazard meta, and we know Obliteryx has better matchups into removers than it does setters. I broadly agree w/spoo's post above on this matter.
I didn't think it to be very productive to entertain packages that kept Analytic. It's pretty clear to me that Analytic is the aspect of Obliteryx that has led to the most deviation from its intended role in the last two months, despite it being an ostensibly pro-concept Ability. Moreover, I would like to avoid taking shots in the dark as much as possible in a stage that carries the level of finality that this one does, and packages such as Spammernoob's and Rysachi's that keep Analytic have a bit too much uncertainty for me to be comfortable with.
Lastly, on Defog and Stealth Rocks: I am intentionally ensuring, in this slate, that Obliteryx retains access to one of either Stealth Rock or Defog, but not both. I understand the viewpoint of folks who are anti-Defog, but I view the swap to be a fairly simple change that slightly hits the 'mon's viability (especially in the roles where it was causing the most trouble w/competitiveness and were the least expected) while also keeping its role in the hazard game, and it's certainly a much more educated guess than ascertaining the future of some other packages: we know Obliteryx has a significant role in the hazard meta, and we know Obliteryx has better matchups into removers than it does setters. I broadly agree w/spoo's post above on this matter.
That concludes the competitive stages of CAP37. Thank you all for the ride.
Signing off,
EARTHFLAX
- Status