Reg M-C just dropped so obviously these are very early thoughts, but this is roughly where I see the initial radar to be:
:salamence-mega: - QB
:lucario-mega-z: - QB
:baxcalibur-mega: - QB
:sneasler: - suspect
:samurott-hisui: - suspect
:baxcalibur: - suspect(?)
The first three are fairly self-explanatory to me. :salamence-mega: has already shown historically time and time again what happens when you give a mon that combination of bulk, Speed, Dragon Dance, and Aerilate-boosted STAB, and I don't really see a reason to make the tier sit through that again...
:lucario-mega-z: having 164 Special Attack and 151 Speed already seems absurd for this power level, but Aura Guard makes revenge killing it even more infuriatingl by halving damage from contact moves. A lot of the tier's common priority, such as Mach Punch, Aqua Jet, Sucker Punch, and Extreme Speed, is contact-based, so these moves become much less reliable as emergency counterplay (not to mention it already resists half these moves), this puts far more pressure on teams to keep a Choice Scarf user or something naturally faster than it healthy just to revenge kill it, which does not seem particularly reasonable for something this immediately threatening!!
:Baxcalibur-Mega: taking an already extremely threatening mon and giving it 175 Attack alongside crazy bulk is also kinda twisted. The bulk is just as concerning as the raw power here, because it gives Mega Baxcalibur far more opportunities to find a Dragon Dance against attacks that would force most offensive setup sweepers out. Once it gets that turn, you are dealing with a Pokemon that is both extremely difficult to revenge kill and strong enough to overwhelm a huge portion of the tier after very little prior damage
:Sneasler: was manageable before, but :Rillaboom: and the addition of :Grassy Seed: fundamentally change how easily it can enable Unburden. Before this regulation, Unburden Sneasler was generally relying on :White Herb: to activate after CC or :Focus Sash:; now Rillaboom can simply put Grassy Terrain up, Sneasler comes in, doubles its Speed, and gets a Defense boost at the same time. Grassy Terrain also weakens Earthquake, which makes trying to revenge kill it with EQ difficult (:Hippowdon: could probably work here though) +2 Sneasler already does around 77-91% to physically defensive :Corviknight: with CC, so "just keep Corviknight healthy" becomes a much worse answer when Corviknight is also one of the Pokemon constantly being asked to deal with Rillaboom and half the physical metagame
:Samurott-Hisui: should have been looked at a while ago... Ceaseless Edge is just an incredibly obnoxious move, there are no :Heavy-Duty Boots:, so every Spike matters, and unlike a conventional hazard setter Samurott does not have to give up momentum to put them down. It clicks a Sharpness-boosted STAB attack and gets the Spike at the same time. M-C does give us some new counterplay here. :Rocky Helmet: is a meaningful addition because Ceaseless Edge makes contact, and :Cinderace: having Court Change gives teams another way of punishing excessive hazard stacking I guess... I still don't think either of those things fixes the underlying interaction. Even if I successfully remove the Spike, Samurott already damaged something while setting it and can just repeat the sequence later. Between :Choice Scarf:, :Black Glasses:, Swords Dance, Flip Turn, Encore, and its coverage, it is also not as if there is one Samurott set you can comfortably account for in the builder
:baxcalibur: is the one here I am less certain about actually banning, which is exactly why I want a suspect. Kinda echoing on the mega here but this mon has an extremely stupid combination of high attack, very good bulk, Dragon Dance, strong Ice / Dragon STAB, priority in Ice Shard, and Thermal Exchange making it completely immune to burn, I just don't like how matchup-dependent its defensive counterplay is
Generally speaking, I think this new regulation is pushing the tier even further in a direction it was already heading. Champions OU already feels extremely favorable to offense and hyper offense, and adding mons this strong with so many setup options only puts even more pressure on defensive answers
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