A chance of over 1? Assuming you have a chance of 2/7 of getting a correct boost each time and 6 attempts, the correct probability of success is 1-(5/7)^6=102024/117649, which is roughly 86.7 %.
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
Moody
- Thread starter Wichu
- Start date
- Status
I wasn't being literal. The point being that Inconsistent is likely to allow you to sweep. It is actually probable
It's probable, but that can only be shown with correct calculations. Probabilities higher than 1 don't even exist in the first place.
Yeah no duh.
Thanks anyway, though
So you expect the opponent to just sit there and let this all play out? I don't think so. If I saw some one starting to use Inconsistent then I'd either set up with one of my Pokes or taunt the sucker before he subs. Maybe put down entry hazards and roar the Inconsistent guy every time he comes in. Poison him with Toxic perhaps! He is screwed if that happens. One Speed Boost due to Inconsistent couldn't possibly outspeed all the taunters in the game.
This ability is so gimmicky. It doesn't garuntee a win or tip the odds in your favor at all.Honestly there are a lot cheaper things IN the meta game as is. If oh say, Togekiss can get away with that silly flinch/paralyze hax then Inconsistent is completely fair game.
Between Protect and Substitute the opponent really doesn't have much of a choice other than to "just sit there and let this all play out".
And Inconsistent team has 5 other members, a well built Inconsistent team will have answers to Pokemon with Taunt (Kill it?), Toxic (Substitute), and Roar (Baton Pass Ingrain). And if you don't carry any of those things (not that I can imagine not one team carrying at least one of those moves), how do you stop it exactly? What happens if the Inconsistent user gets all the boosts it needs to effectively sweep before you've been given the opportunity to Roar/Toxic/Taunt it?
And Inconsistent team has 5 other members, a well built Inconsistent team will have answers to Pokemon with Taunt (Kill it?), Toxic (Substitute), and Roar (Baton Pass Ingrain). And if you don't carry any of those things (not that I can imagine not one team carrying at least one of those moves), how do you stop it exactly? What happens if the Inconsistent user gets all the boosts it needs to effectively sweep before you've been given the opportunity to Roar/Toxic/Taunt it?
What I'm saying is those strats won't work if your opponent gets an ideal boost. I think you need to actually try out Inconsistent in Ubers. Then you will see how broken it can be
Yes and ideal boost on the first turn is still a very low chance. If they have to switch you now have time to screw them over.
Theres still worse things in the game than this gimmicky luck-based ability.
They typically have 2 or 3 possible boosts to screw you over, evasion and speed screwing most stuff. They also have 2 turns to get it, with sub + protect.
Okay thats nice but they can't sub the next turn if u taunt em. If I see an Octillery or another potential inconsistent user, I'm bringing in my taunter as they protect. Even with a speed boost they aint gonna outspeed my taunt. That'll stop them from stalling and then you can proceed to wreck them or have them switch out. Then put down SR or something to deter em from switching out willy nilly. Maybe have a dragon tailer/whirlwinder to make it even more painful for the to switch in. Haze em! Worry Seed em! Do whatever you want. Half these strategies are common on LOTS of teams anyways. Maybe revenge kill em with Ditto if you have one. Turn their strategy against them! A ditto with max Evasion? I like it! Do any of this so called cheap strategy turns into a waste of a Pokemon.
EDIT: Most importantly lets think about the chances of everything not going their way. They may get a string of useless boosts! And I can see that happening a LOT considering how much moves with 80 accuracy miss...HALF THE TIME! O_o
Obviously its going to work out perfectly like that every time you face an Inconsistent user.
Dragon Tail doesn't work when a Substitute is out, not to mention since it's rather popular to Baton Pass Ingrain to an Inconsistent user to ensure they don't get phazed out, that's more than likely not a viable option.
And is Ditto really going to be a so called "counter"? While Ditto himself will take on the ability Inconsistent as well any of the boosts they've accumulated, two of Ditto's moves will be utterly useless and the other two moves will more than likely be resisted by the Inconsistent user. If Ditto copies a +6 evasion, he still has to land a hit on the Inconsistent user, and will only have 5pp a move to do that with. And if Ditto is scarfed and runs out, well you know have to switch out ontop of it and your opponent still has the momentum, and however many more boosts he's accumulated while you wasted turns with Ditto.
Try again.
Dragon Tail doesn't work when a Substitute is out, not to mention since it's rather popular to Baton Pass Ingrain to an Inconsistent user to ensure they don't get phazed out, that's more than likely not a viable option.
And is Ditto really going to be a so called "counter"? While Ditto himself will take on the ability Inconsistent as well any of the boosts they've accumulated, two of Ditto's moves will be utterly useless and the other two moves will more than likely be resisted by the Inconsistent user. If Ditto copies a +6 evasion, he still has to land a hit on the Inconsistent user, and will only have 5pp a move to do that with. And if Ditto is scarfed and runs out, well you know have to switch out ontop of it and your opponent still has the momentum, and however many more boosts he's accumulated while you wasted turns with Ditto.
Try again.
You really don't get it do you? If the Inconsistent user switches in and protects 6 times in a match (which is the bare minimum if you lead with it), you have approximately a 86.7% chance of getting an ideal boost and then it is highly likely you will sweep. How is that not broken?
After a speed boost, very, very few taunter can outspeed Octillery/Smeargle. If you want to Taunt an Inconsistent Pokemon, you are essentially forced to use Sableye/Erufunn/Tornelos/Voltlos. Let's not forget that Taunt can miss if they get an Evasion boost. Lastly, Taunt only lasts for 2 turns in addition to the turn you used it. After you Taunt, you are left to break their sub and do something else that can immediately kill it/force it to switch out in 1 turn. To be honest, even if you successfully Taunt and they don't have a sub up, it's still a difficult job to kill it/phaze it in 2 turns, and you better hope that an Evasion or the right defense boost doesn't happen. Phazing sometimes it not even an option since Smeargles tend to use Ingrain.
Your Ditto strategy is rather... inconsistent. The most efficient Ditto arguably uses Choice Scarf, but a Scarf Ditto does shit against Inconsistent Pokemon. You are forced to use a not-so-efficient Ditto if you want to "counter" Inconsistent Pokemon. Then it boils down to mostly luck (you're actually at a slight disadvantage since Dittoes usually have less HP than the copied Pokemon).
Those are numbers. Lets examine this without being blinded by our 1, 2, 3s.
Taunt wins. The poster above me says few things can out speed a Octillery that had its speed boosted 2 stages. 45 base speed doesn't shoot up into the 100s after a single boost. If it did then a rock polish would be sufficient to make many MANY MANY of the slow steel/ground types effective sweepers. Two stages is not enough. And one is all they get if you taunt. Unless they read you like a book and sub when u switch to the taunter then they prolly win....if the small pathetic chance of them getting good boosts over and over works. Yes over and over. You cant get a single speed boost and call it GAME! If you could then a baton passed Octillery (which I used in D/P) would be banned by now.
Bottom line. Taunt them when they sub. That forces em to switch or stay and fight without protect. Lets see how well that goes!
EDIT: In fact! Taunt goes through subs. Dont even have to outspeed em! :D
It depends on the Taunter. Say you do manage to successfully Taunt them but then they kill you. They'll just try again later. You also do have to worry about attack boosts (with +2 in the right attack boost, they can wail on a pokemon using Taunt pretty hard and while they can't stall then, if they still manage to kill you, they'll just try again later).
Ditto DOES NOT work when it is behind a Substitute. You then have to worry about breaking subs when it gets evasion and defenses. Then Ditto has to be locked into a move which could still give an advantage. Are you using Mischievious Heart? Because that is the only way to even guarantee the Taunt will land if it gets a speed boost and many Taunters are weak to boosted attacks. Many common taunters will die to +2 are be 2 hit koed which makes them useless in later rounds of Inconsistent. And if they attack you while Taunted, you get hurt and they'll try to smuggle their way out and kill your Taunter if they can.
It is also possible they get a string of very helpful boosts. Just because the dice rolls can suck doesn't mean they always will and sometimes, the game's luck system is ridiculous feeling. Some people are just lucky. You don't want to fight those people with Inconsistent.
Haze is only TEMPORARY and most of it's users suck or would never use it or just aren't used (except Weezing). I can't recall if Worry Seed works through subs or not and few get that move and no one is really going to use it except Erufuun. All those moves Haze, Clear Smog, Worry Seed, have limited distribution and many of the pokemon that do get them would never use them and those that do are very, very limited and still have to worry about +2 SAtk boosts which will pretty much murder them. Using Haze, they still get +2s and if they get the right +2, your "counter" (of which there is none that are RELIABLE against Inconsistent because it depends on what boosts they do and do not have) will die or be so crippled, they will easily kill you later.
Roar and Dragon Tail have a nasty habit of missing with +2 or more evasion and the common roarers/Dragon Tailers will be hit hard by boosted moves. Dragon Tail also does not work through sub and if they have sub+evasion, Dragon Tail will pretty much be useless.
The reason Inconsistent is broken is because it is INCONSISTENT. IT TURNS EVERYTHING INTO LUCK AND EVEN THE MOST WELL PREPARED TEAM AGAINST IT COULD STILL POTENTIALLY LOSE IF THEY'RE UNLUCKY. AND PREPARING ENTIRELY AGAINST INCONSISTENT ALSO LEAVES HOLES AGAINST OTHER THINGS AND IS NOT AT ALL ENTIRELY ABLE TO BLOCK WHAT IT IS SUPPOSED TO ANYHOW. THE OPPONENT HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF 1 POKEMON THAT FORCES MULTIPLE USELESS STUFF ON THE OTHER TEAM SO EVEN IF IT DOESN'T WORK, THERE ARE NOW OTHER HOLES TO EXPLOIT. GETTING FREE +2S EVERY TURN FOR STALLING IS ALSO A SUCKFEST BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT TURNS EVERY POTENTIAL THING INTO A POSSIBLE LOSS DEPENDING ON LUCK, IT WAS BANNED.
Inconsistent deserves Bolded letters.
First thing, max speed Smeargle at +2 outspeeds pretty much anything not named Deo-S or Scarfed. Then you just Sub on the predicted switch, protect, and then Baton Pass according to what boosts you got. It's pretty simple. Second thing, you can't taunt them if you can't hit them
If you Taunt the Substitute, it's still up. Still accumulating +2 boosts. What Pokemon are you using with Taunt that's capable of breaking Octillery's sub that doesn't fear any of his attacks? How do you know he won't attack while you Taunt? What if the Inconsistent Pokemon got the defense boost that lets him stall you out until Taunt wears off? What if the Substitute is already up and you've just lost one of you Pokemon due to the attack and he's still got his Substitute up? You just lost a Pokemon and Octillery is at whatever Octillery might be at when this turn is over.
(Octillery is just an example)
(Octillery is just an example)
Only leads commonly carry taunt. And its probably not going to come in on a taunter. It'll probably sub on the switch to the taunter, then protect once its out. This gives it 2 chances to get a sp atk boost. Then its surf will probably do a number or ohko if it gets a sp atk boost, since most taunt leads are fast and frail. And once taunter is dead/crippled, octillery and try to stay alive until taunt wears off, or just switch out and come back in.
If it doesn't get a sp atk boost but gets and evasion boost instead, taunt, as well as any attacks aimed at it afterward can miss. It has a very good chance to stall out taunts with an evasion boost, or even proper defense boosts.
While 1 speed boost is probably not enough, it has 2 chances anyway, and if gets double speed...
whiny bitches. play the game.
how about subseed erefuun? taunt the sub then stall them to death?
I'm fully aware of that. But +2 boosts is all its gonna get. It has so-so defenses. Kill the sub and kill the octopus. You people realize 2 sharp boosts can be accumulated with a baton pass just as easily. 2 boosts aren't any kind of problem. Chances are they'll just be a lousy defense boost or something.
EDIT: Can we PLEASE have ONE person at a time present their reasons. I absolutely refuse to be flooded by "omgigawditscheap!" by 15 people and then expect yall to expect me to come up with reasons in defense for all of your reasons.
If they beat your Taunter, then it doesn't matter as they will switch out and continue their Sub/Protect fun later without a Taunter able to stop them. +2 Boosted attacks do MASSIVE damage to Taunters and they're usually neutral or weak to the moves used. Unless the Taunter is carrying Focus Sash, +2 SAtk will be enough to win usually since Inconsistent is still rolling and if they get that or attack as you Taunt them, then it isn't going to be doing anything. If they're behind Sub as you Taunt them, they'll attack you with protection and then they could get lucky with evasion (or attack boost) so they have sub+evasion plus 2 more turns to try to kill them (good luck with that) as they continue boosting. Perhaps you could, dependingly. But it's not entirely probable. Not enough to rely on. You DON'T want them to get Sub up because if they get evasion with sub, you can be sure it's going to be a near game over for you if you're relying solely on Taunt to win.
+2 SAtk Octillery Surf to Sableye Max/Max: 90.79-106.91% (probably the best Taunter you could find with Mischievious Heart).
+2 SAtk Octillery Flamethrower against Max hp/132 SDef Erufuun (because it is my opinion all Octillery should run Flamethrower and at the least mine do): 130.86-154.32%
+2 SAtk Octillery Surf to Voltlos/Tornelos: 118.39-139.46%
So what it comes down to is they predict Taunt and attack (really not that hard against common Taunters and with sub leaves the Taunter at a disadvantage) for a easy 2 hit ko but if they get a +2 SAtk/Spd boost, they win against Taunt and will switch in and try again later (or even stay in if they get evasions or something as Taunt wears off).
The posts have conflicting reasons, I'm doing other things right now, I just don't have time to quote and present reasons to everyone.
Like I said 2 +2 boosts are obtainable using other methods. You may ban Inconsistent but it's methods will still be in the game.
I think its a perfectly fair gamble. If it doesn't work, you wasted a single Pokemon. There are SOOOOOOOOOOO many worse startegies out there like Calm Mind Shanderaa switched in on a tank which can't kill it's sub so it CM's behind the sub and the leftovers heal the Sub damage as the CM boosts soften the blows of your tank's attacks giving them even more time to recover from Sub damage and then they sub up and sweep while the sub absorbs any sucker punch or aquajets....yeah I think we get the picture. I think we're panicking over this whole ability. Some one got lucky a few times and beat an unprepared opponent and now this new mysterious strategy just has to be banned cuz we dont understand it.
EDIT: I g2g so later.
So? While receiving boosts can be done through a Baton Pass Chain, Inconsistent gives the Pokemon a result of a Baton Pass Chain without having to have the 5 or 6 moves required to give them boosts, nor the turns that are necessary to set them up or pass them.
It really can't be compared to any other boosting method the game makes available.
EDIT: Shanderra is rather frail - the only Pokemon I think it could really set up on would be Pokemon like Chansey or Blissey. I'm not experienced with using his Calm Mind counterpart.
It really can't be compared to any other boosting method the game makes available.
EDIT: Shanderra is rather frail - the only Pokemon I think it could really set up on would be Pokemon like Chansey or Blissey. I'm not experienced with using his Calm Mind counterpart.
- Status