Playing With Luck

Phi

This is not a thread to discuss whether certain clauses/bans that may or may not be based more on the element of luck than past obvious signs of uber Pokemon. Rather, I'm wondering, when people say "hax is part of the game. deal with it" (or some variation on that, I've seen the same post god knows how many times), how exactly does one strategically implement luck as part of a strategy that consistently wins battles, especially as consistently hard hitting metagames have shown further and further rewards for moves like Fire Blast, Hydro Pump, and Stone Edge over their less powerful but more accurate counterparts.
From my experience, the best way to play with luck is to make sure that areas in which my team that might falter, luck-wise, I'll have a more reliable back-up plan for whatever I now might otherwise be unable to beat, though I don't play enough to get high enough on the ladder to really know what that might always be at the moment, especially when critical hits are taken into account.
So, while it's good for everyone to complain about luck or whatever, it's really pretty evident that unless you want to be playing a different game entirely (which if anyone really wants that and can draw call me and you can help make that dream a reality) luck is a hard coded part of Pokemon's battle system that despite (or perhaps because of) its ability to suddenly shift momentum in one direction or another can be dealt with to some extent. How often do you in a battle forced to take a gamble and what strategies do you take to keep that gamble from working against you?
 
if your default team has flamethrower on for example heatran when battling on-the-go, you may opt to run fire blast in a one-off tournament battle because while you could still miss, the damage output is worth the change in a single game. thats using it to your advantage, but staying true to luck because youre not guaranteed success.

critical hits have been within the battle mechanics since the very beginning and like many other aspects of the game, influence the eventual winner of any single game because attacking for double the original output of what would have been is undeniably game changing.
 
The only time I ever complain about luck, I think, is when somebody uses ScarfRachi to flinch my team into oblivion.

That is not good sportsmenship. It is abuse. While it may not be broken, it certainly takes the fun out of the game.
 
Box said:
The only time I ever complain about luck, I think, is when somebody uses ScarfRachi to flinch my team into oblivion.

That is not good sportsmenship. It is abuse. While it may not be broken, it certainly takes the fun out of the game.
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I wouldn't call that luck. They're playing the odds and succeeding.
 
Yeah, VS Jirachi you could almost say that the mon not being flinched is the one haxing.

More generally, randomness here is basically a risk VS reward decision with low probability but high stakes. Relying on it would be suicidal, but it's the grit that can always slip in the works and ruin your plan... or the opponent's. I like the fact that crits prevent bulky stat-uppers from becoming unkillable.

I myself believe that indeed "no plan survives contact with the enemy" ; granted, my current team being weatherless HO does nothing to counter that. I usually limit myself to tactics (as opposed to strategy) apart from a strength-weakness appraisal at team preview ; I also like to have redundant elements to make sure I have a backup plan just in case.

If I am forced to rely on luck at any moment, if my only chance left depends on a gamble, I usually consider that I played poorly and think about how I ended up cornered like this.
 
I really hate it when people, don't flinch every turn with jirachi and then start complaining about luck. It's like...you're the one who was relying on flinchax in the first place, so you should take both the good luck and the bad. If your strategy involves luck, whether it be relying on a hydro pump to hit when you could be using surf (the only exception is rotom-w since he doesn't have the option of any other water moves), or jirachi to flinch, or whatever, you have no right to complain about luck as you're the one who put the move on the pokemon in the first place knowing it's not going to work out in your favor 100% of the time.

/rant
 
Luck has a love-hate relationship with everyone, the love comes when we get an awesome piece of luck, and when we see a Crazily-Lucky combo get pulled off for you or the opponent, because it's so funny there's no point being cross about it, and the hate from when the idiot you're playing that doesn't understand standard wifi rules, battles you and hits a OHKO move, like against an Japenese guy on Random Matchup:

Uxie Vs. Hippowdon

Uxie uses Reflect
Hippowdon used Fissure
-Ground Moves Miss with Levitate-

Turn #2

Uxie, Come Back!
Go! Milotic
Hippowdon used Fissure
It's a OHKO!

*Facepalm. We hate OHKO's and luck. An ugly combo.
 
Captain Interlock said:
Luck has a love-hate relationship with everyone, the love comes when we get an awesome piece of luck, and when we see a Crazily-Lucky combo get pulled off for you or the opponent, because it's so funny there's no point being cross about it, and the hate from when the idiot you're playing that doesn't understand standard wifi rules, battles you and hits a OHKO move, like against an Japenese guy on Random Matchup:

Uxie Vs. Hippowdon

Uxie uses Reflect
Hippowdon used Fissure
-Ground Moves Miss with Levitate-

Turn #2

Uxie, Come Back!
Go! Milotic
Hippowdon used Fissure
It's a OHKO!

*Facepalm. We hate OHKO's and luck. An ugly combo.
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Random matchup doesn't use Smogon's rules. Any move the game allows, barring Sky Drop and Chatter, is legal. There's no sleep, evasion, or OHKO clauses. And to put your example in perspective, the chance of an OHKO move hitting is the same as for Focus Blast missing, or Scald Burning, and we all know what that's like.
 
I'm gonna be honest right here, I bitch about hax constantly. Even when I get extreme hax on the opponent... sometimes. When you're ass is getting stalled and you get a crit, then its just the game, anyone who's been playing for a good amount of time knows that if you stall, you're going to (eventually) get a crit on you. However, when they bring in their only hope of winning the game, about to counter your offensive threat sweeping the opponents ass and you crit them, allowing you to sweep with ease, that's just plain awful. It kind of works like this for Hydro Pump/ Fire Blast/ etc., but mainly when you predict the opponent's switch and (should have) KO'd/ taken a huge chunk out of them.
 
All of the topics that are made about luck seem to always end in circles and a lock. :/
Anyways, my take on luck as that an inherent part of Pokemon is probability management. That trade-off between Fire Blast and Flamethrower is a choice made by everyone, and being able to deal with a crucial miss is an important part of being good at Pokemon.

That being said, Smogon's policy is to minimize luck in the metagame. A "purer" competition can be succinctly described as "a competition in which the better player wins more often." The more we can pare down the elements of luck in the metagame, the more often the better player will win. However, 'better player' takes into account the choice over Fire Blast and Flamethrower; those who choose to run higher-powered moves are accepting the consequences of that by risking a crucial miss. That is part of the game.

As for Scarfrachi, Jirachi is pretty weak, lol, and there are plenty of Pokemon that do not care one whit about Iron Heads.
 
Jirachi only takes the fun out of the game if its opponent has bad sportsmanship. If your opponent is a humble player, he will simply shrug off and send in the necessary checks. Steels, waters, and gliscor easily demolish jirachi. ITs not even that good, hax complainers generally dont prepare for this threat.
The most often made gamble for me is my lead gengar and its focus blast on ttars. whenever i see a ttar, i click focus blast and hope for the hit, because timid specs ALWAYS kos ttar, except with chople. Its a gamble, but the players generally dont expect this and it helps me lead the game with a 5-6. Another thing is timid scarf gardevoir tracing sandrush and KOing excadrill with focus blast (i know he has been banned) However, whenever focus blast misses, I dont really rage, because hax IS part of the game. You cannot remove it unless its some ROM hacks, which would take the fun out of a game more then hax.
The way I see it, nearly every turn has hax. An airslash not missing, an ice beam not freezing, or a close combat not critting is also considered hax.
 
I think of game mechanics being hax or not going by my "30% Rule". Basically, with many abilities and moves this gen like scald and shed skin that all have effects activate at 30%, I've played against them so often and they happen quite a lot actually, so I just expect them to eventually work on me. Anything less than a 30% chance of happening I consider hax and uncompetitive.

Oh and if you're being a dick stalling someone out for >10 turns, you deserve to be critted.

If you can control the hax on your end, then you have no right to complain when it happens to you, and you deserve it. I fucking hate missing fire blast on my chandy, and I run flamethrower. My gyarados has bounce, but bounce is epic and I fully take responsibility for any hax I lose from due to a bounce miss.
 
WinstonShnozwick said:
If you can control the hax on your end, then you have no right to complain when it happens to you, and you deserve it. I fucking hate missing fire blast on my chandy, and I run flamethrower. My gyarados has bounce, but bounce is epic and I fully take responsibility for any hax I lose from due to a bounce miss.
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Bounce.

Bounce miss.

BOUNCE.

BOUNCE MISS.

I. Hate. Bounce.

Bounce Miss? Try five in a row.

Oh, that Pokemon only 6HKOs me xD
Ima set up a bit cuz even though Gyarados is my lass pokemon, he can easily sweep the rest of his team.

*sets up*

Okay, now to hit his arse with Bounce since he's immune to Waterfall!
*Bounce Misses*
Okay, that's fine.
*Bounce Misses*
...okay...fine.
*Bounce Misses*
Well, I can still win :)
*Bounce Misses*
Wtf? Well, I got one last shot.
*Bounce Misses*
WTF IS THIS VOODOO!?!?!

What are even the chances of that happening? x_x
 
.15^5=.0000795375 or 0.008% chance, 8 times out of every 1000.

For a full 8 times, .15^8=.0000002562890625 or 0.000025% chance
 
It's also pretty interesting watching jrrrrrrr battle as I am fairly certain that the mechanics of Pokémon Online are totally different for him than they are for anyone else.

6/8 hydro pumps missing, fully paralyzed 6 turns in a row
 
Gungnir85 said:
It's also pretty interesting watching jrrrrrrr battle as I am fairly certain that the mechanics of Pokémon Online are totally different for him than they are for anyone else.

6/8 hydro pumps missing, fully paralyzed 6 turns in a row
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LMAO thank you this made my day, and i think it's my new sig.

This thread makes an interesting point, can anyone just make a team that abuses chance and have a higher win rate? What would that teams members be?

-Jirachi
-Togekiss
-Machamp
 
The phrase "abusing chance" and "higher win rate" are virtually incompatible: Usually, the Pokemon that abuse chance are not the best options for anything other than abusing chance. Any win rate comes down to three things:

1) The number of teams that just plain suck.
2) The number of teams that beat you out plain and simple.
3) The number of teams that are a fairly decent match for yours.

Obviously, battles of the first kind will usually win, but you will almost always lose battles of the second kind. The third type is usually decided by better battling skills, but seeing how you're using a luck-based team, it will basically be decided by luck effect chance.

Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, luck-based Pokemon are rarely the best for their role, so the type of teams #2 will usually outnumber type #1 as opposed to when you try and make the best team you can. Of course, your goal in maximizing hax chance is to give yourself a better chance against type 2 teams but overall it is not worth it as there will be more type 2s to go around.

tl;dr: The small chance you give yourself at beating better teams with hax does not outweigh the fact that there will be more better teams to go around, and that you're throwing your fate to the wind against evenly matched teams.
 
Based on how much I've played in the Battle Subway and how hax is my downfall in something like 9/10 times, I've had to work out a lot of hax avoidance. Using it to your advantage will only get you screwed eventually, (example: your Jirachi doesn't get paralysis for 3 Body Slams in a row,) but working to avoid hax is usually a good idea. Substitutes are great defenses against hax and are otherwise great to have on many different Pokémon and movesets. Items like Lum Berries or abilities like Shell Armor are very beneficial in avoiding hax as well. Sometimes, you have to pull out some damage calculations and see how much more damage you do with a higher power-lower accuracy move, but the bottom line is still the same. You can't defend against every form of hax, and the only smart way to play with it is to expect it.

If you use Draco Meteor instead of Dragon Pulse, always have in mind that it will miss at least 1/10 times. Although the chance is exactly 10% to miss under normal circumstances, and even though it could hit 15 times in a row before it misses, you won't be caught off-guard and you won't end up pissed off over how unlikely it was (normally).

Also, don't always jump into the conclusion that things occurring in a row is some phenomenon, because there is no variable change in Pokémon. Don't think of it as "He got 2 critical hits in a row and that's a .39% chance", think more along the lines of "His critical hit ratio on turn 1 was 6.25% and his critical hit ratio on turn 2 was 6.25%"
 
Pwnemon said:
The phrase "abusing chance" and "higher win rate" are virtually incompatible: Usually, the Pokemon that abuse chance are not the best options for anything other than abusing chance. Any win rate comes down to three things:

1) The number of teams that just plain suck.
2) The number of teams that beat you out plain and simple.
3) The number of teams that are a fairly decent match for yours.

Obviously, battles of the first kind will usually win, but you will almost always lose battles of the second kind. The third type is usually decided by better battling skills, but seeing how you're using a luck-based team, it will basically be decided by luck effect chance.

Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, luck-based Pokemon are rarely the best for their role, so the type of teams #2 will usually outnumber type #1 as opposed to when you try and make the best team you can. Of course, your goal in maximizing hax chance is to give yourself a better chance against type 2 teams but overall it is not worth it as there will be more type 2s to go around.

tl;dr: The small chance you give yourself at beating better teams with hax does not outweigh the fact that there will be more better teams to go around, and that you're throwing your fate to the wind against evenly matched teams.
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I get where you're coming from but I've seen a couple of teams that have used "hax" or chance and have gotten really high on the ladder. Matty made one 4th gen that might still be viable now:
http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71805

It primarily abused Thunder Wave, which wasn't used as much early 5th gen due to Excadrill running around (although Gliscor still exists).
 
Kefka Palazzo™ said:
Bounce.

Bounce miss.

BOUNCE.

BOUNCE MISS.

I. Hate. Bounce.

Bounce Miss? Try five in a row.

Oh, that Pokemon only 6HKOs me xD
Ima set up a bit cuz even though Gyarados is my lass pokemon, he can easily sweep the rest of his team.

*sets up*

Okay, now to hit his arse with Bounce since he's immune to Waterfall!
*Bounce Misses*
Okay, that's fine.
*Bounce Misses*
...okay...fine.
*Bounce Misses*
Well, I can still win :)
*Bounce Misses*
Wtf? Well, I got one last shot.
*Bounce Misses*
WTF IS THIS VOODOO!?!?!

What are even the chances of that happening? x_x
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I know your pain. Many a time it has happened. My gyarados is bulky so I can painfully watch him die to bounce misses. Or have his entire saving factor go out the window if I'm against a wall.

Gyarados jumps up

Wall misses move

Gyarados misses

Wall uses willowisp but lum berry saves him

Gyarados jumps up

Wall uses recovery

Gyarados misses

Wall burns Gyarados

Gyarados more like Gayrados amirite.

Bounce is too good to me though because I can hit fighting, grass, waters, and dragons with it. Especially the dragons and some waters, which EQ wouldn't be as useful for. Rage :/
 
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