Mario Kart Mafia (NOC) END: VILLAGE WINS

finally zyphirex posts some non-bullshit before deadline

ok um snaquaza or zyph take your pick

snaquaza scum flip can potentially make zyph town

any other scenario still lets us flip zyph scum tomorrow

btw my reads list before night

town
spiffy
celever
houndoomsday
blackhawk

leaning town
A_G
Blackhawk
Jalmont

null
walrein

scum
snaquaza
zyphirex
solar vapor/paperblade
 
Also I think Snaq is town because if he were mafia he'd claim a PR on Day 1 to try to bait out a counterclaim imo, claiming vanilla is suicide this early.
 
I concur that Zyph's item seems a bit strong upon further reflection. In addition, IIRC barty the beetle's "pr claim" was interpreted by woodchuck and not intended at all by barty, as Acklow pointed out. As for saying I make mostly short posts, I prefer to make shorter posts with my thoughts/opinions unless I need to make a list of reads. I rarely post walls of text.

I already stated that I liked a Zyph flip better for the information, and the more I think about it, the more I think his item claim is bullshit.

Unvote, vote Zyphirex.

Zyph is now at L-1. Do not hammer until we get some more posts out of him. If anyone hammers Zyph and Zyph flips town (unlikely but possible), they will be placed under extreme suspicion by me.

Zyph, please answer the following questions:

1. In a game of 12 players, how likely do you find it that there is more than one kill per night and why?

2. Please provide detailed reads on Aura Guardian, Metal Sonic, Celever, Houndoomsday, and Snaquaza. (NOT A QUESTION I KNOW SHUT UP)

3. Why did you claim your item when it would be best to hide it so a scum kills himself?
 
Walrein said:
3. Why did you claim your item when it would be best to hide it so a scum kills himself?
Click to expand...

because I told him to claim fully else we'll lynch him lol

I'll claim responsibility for that if there's anything relevant rofl

no scum is going to shoot that guy claim or no claim
 
I still can't understand Zyphirex. "Look at me I took the time to read this -- but I didn't notice that Barty didn't actually claim a power role!" Plus, no one even commented on how, instead of defending himself, he made an entire post targeting the other lynch target, Snaq. BUT it has to be said: Why the fuck are we lynching a win condition?

Unlynch Zyphirex

Yeah, sure, it is unlikely for such a role to be in this game. It is also clear that his logic is slowly killing the village from the inside. However, if we have such a role we want to cherish it -- not lynch it...
 
@Walrein

1. Suppose mafia get 2 nightkills per turn.
Scenarios
(Assuming No Blocks and assuming at least 2 Mafia Remaining implies 2 kills)
Using 1 to imply Village Lynch and 2 to imply Mafia Lynch

1 Lynch Villager 3/4 (2 Villagers Die over night)
1.1 Lynch Villager 2/3 (2 Villagers Die over night) Mafia wins this way with 1/2 probability

1.2 Lynch Mafia 1/3 (2 Villagers Die over night)
1.2.1 Lynch Villager 2/3 (2 Villagers Die over night) Mafia wins 1/6 Mafia 4/6 current total

1.2.2 Lynch Mafia 1/3 (1 Villager Dies over night)
1.2.2.1 Lynch Villager 3/4 (1 Villager Dies over night) Mafia wins 1/16 Mafia 35/48 current total

1.2.2.2 Lynch Mafia 1/4 Village wins 1/64

2 Lynch Mafia 1/4 (2 Villagers Die over night)
2.1 Lynch Villager 7/9 (2 Villagers Die over night)
2.1.1 Lynch Villager 2/3 (2 Villagers Die over night) Mafia wins 7/54 Mafia 35/48 + 7/54 current total
.
.
.
Mafia final total: a lot
(It's 5 AM, and I'm not going to waste time on a bunch of math no one cares about anyways.)

2. I have done detailed reads on all of these people before in the last few pages, so quick summary (on everyone since this will be my last post before being lynched):

Aura Guardian: Moderate Scum Claimed PR but kept his claim vague. Rapidly switching votes with little reasoning.
Metal Sonic: Slight Scum Still doing weird stuff. Seems to be trying to confuse people.
Celever: Maybe Scum If he survives, the he is scum. If not, then he will almost certainly flip village.
Houndoomsday: Null Village Seems to be pretty reasonable.
Snaquaza: SCUM His posts are short. Logic is flaky. Bandwagons. etc.
Paperblade: Slight Scum Never got to fully analyze Solar Vapor, but from the first read through he seemed to be showing signs of scum later in the game. I don't know what Paperblade is trying to do, but it seems really scummy/lazy/weird.
Walrein: Slight Scum Not too sure why I'm being asked about the whole mafia nightkills thing.
Spiffy: Town Solid posts. Pro-town.
Woodchuck: Ditto
Jalmont: Null Town Occasionally shows up with good posts.
Blackhawk11: Null Town Some pro-town posts.
Zyphirex: Shitty Town Subbed in for noobs. Made a mistake early on.

3. What MS said.

Well, it was fun playing with you guys. Too bad I got lynched on Day 1, but, oh well, sucks to suck. I'm sure you guys will not miss a unhelpful villager. Since I'm going to sleep, the next time I check this will be to confirm I have been lynched.

I thought I should get some last comments in to try to help the town (although at the rate this has been going I probably which just screw more stuff up).

First of all, I'd like to come clean about my item. My role pm said that I have no idea what the item's purpose is, so I guessed at the purpose because saying I was a vanillager would have been fucking suicide at that point.

I also just looked back through my role pm and saw another thing which is that my item can neither be used, discarded, given or stolen, so I am a class 1 idiot at this point for asking Eagle if it could be given and discussing the possibilities of item theft. In hindsight, I think my item was definitely some sort of protection, but I'm not sure how it would have worked.

Also in my role pm, I noticed that I was told my racer class and my greatest character bonus. This is probably just flavor stuff, but it might have some use.

I looked through this article on Mario Kart Wii. My racer class is correct. But my greatest character bonus is incorrect...

As for opinions on the state of the game. If I had to choose three people to lynch, they would be Snaquaza, Paperblade, and Walrein in that order. If any of them died or were cleaned, my remaining suspect list would be Aura Guardian, Metal Sonic, Celever, Jalmont, Houndoomsday, Blackhawk11, Woodchuck, Spiffy.

Looking back through Solar Vapor's posts a bit he does seem suspicious, but I'm too tired to do anything real.

On items, I think there is probably at least one of each of the common general item classes in the game, and I'll be damned if there isn't a Blue Shell and a Star.

On characters, I noted that there are 12 starting characters and 12 unlockables. For Bowser Boys possibilities I see Boswer, Bowser Jr., Dry Bowser, Dry Bones, King Boo, and Koopa Troopa. Koopa Troopa might also be a character that is village alligned but inspects/reveals as a Bowser Boy.
I could see DK, Wario, or Waluigi as possible neutrals.
More speculation:
Mario or Luigi as inspector. The other as some power role.
The babies as vanillas.
Yoshi or maybe Toad as BG.
Princesses having weaker PRs.
Other unlockables as PRs.
Any character could have item(s).

I wonder if the Mii is in this game. LOL

It doesn't seem like vehicles play any part in this from my role PM.

This is a lot of random (probably useless) speculation, but I might as well get my last words in while I can.

Well, now I'm saying I lied about my item, so you guys might as well lynch me as I will admit I have really fucked this up big time. Still, Snaq is at L-3 and still hardly posting...

@Celever Ninja'd me as I was typing this, but since it's already here, I might as well post it all. I have three things to say. One, even if barty didn't claim a power role, he still seemed really suspicious. Two, if you have been reading my posts, I have been defending myself as well as giving opinions on, not just Snaq, but also other players. Three, (I hate to say this right after you bring me down to L-3) if you don't read through my whole post (which I hope you do read through), know that your point for unvoting me is now moot.
 
I just noticed that my win condition says nothing about being alive at the end of the game. It just says that I win once all members of the Bowser Boys are defeated. Hooray for my total noobishness. Now go, my fellow Mario Crew, and root out the evil Bowser Boys.
 
Votecount 1.14 - Crash Course

Snaquaza: (4) Jalmont, Solar Vapor, Houndoomsday, Zyphirex, Celever, Metal Sonic, Spiffy, Zyphirex, Woodchuck, Jalmont, Metal Sonic L-3
Zyphirex: (4) Walrein, Aura Guardian, Celever, Jalmont, Spiffy, Metal Sonic, Blackhawk11, Celever, Houndoomsday, Snaquaza, Aura Guardian, Aura Guardian, Paperblade, Walrein L-3
Aura Guardian: (1) Snaquaza, Solar Vapor, Blackhawk11, Spiffy, Blackhawk11
Celever: (0) Spiffy, Spiffy, Zyphirex, Blackhawk11, Woodchuck, Zyphirex, Walrein, Spiffy
Paperblade: (0) Houndoomsday, Jalmont, Aura Guardian, Celever
No Lynch: (0) cxinlee, Jalmont
Spiffy: (0) Celever, Celever, Celever, Snaquaza
Houndoomsday: (0) Zyphirex
Jalmont: (0) Snaquaza, Spiffy, Celever, Walrein, Metal Sonic, Celever, Houndoomsday, Spiffy, Jalmont, Spiffy, Walrein
Metal Sonic: (0) Woodchuck, Spiffy, Houndoomsday, Spiffy
Walrein: (0) Snaquaza, Blackhawk11, Celever, Woodchuck, Houndoomsday, Celever, Metal Sonic, Celever, Zyphirex
Blackhawk11: (0) Walrein, Celever
Woodchuck: (0) Houndoomsday, Spiffy, Zyphirex

Not voting: (3) Blackhawk11, Spiffy, Paperblade

Deadline has been extended to 18th August 21:00 GMT (Approximately 11 hours away)
 
Well, I guess I'll go to sleep now and set an alarm, so I can wake up and maybe say some stuff/answer questions, although I have pretty much exhausted all discussion topics, at least for myself.
 
If your post is fewer than 300 words or consists of only a single image, you will be warned unless it is a substantial contribution by itself. This is ridiculously pc++ and you're all posting like shit anyway.
 
In the following essay, I will attempt to summarize the recent posts in the game. Using an analytical approach, I will show that the player @Zyphirex, although suspicious, is likely to be a member of the village, and I will also suggest an alternate lynch target for this day.

I am inclined to believe Zyphirex's latest statements. Why he claimed that crazy item role when he actually knew nothing about it is beyond the scope of this essay, however, this new claim is more in line with what barty (now Walrein) claimed about his item.[1] Zyphirex has been known in the past to post completely random crap[2]. Though this is not very helpful to the village, it doesn't immediately make him scum. The actions of the players formerly in his slot have been construed as “scummy” by several players in the past, myself included[3], however, it can be assumed that both of these players were actually just complete noobs, since neither player had any previous mafia experience. For these reasons, I am hesitant to lynch Zyphirex.

Since lynching Zyphirex is likely to kill an innocent villager, we need to find a new lynch target. I will suggest user @Snaquaza. This player is already only three votes away from being lynched[4], and several players have deemed him a viable candidate. In general, his posts are not made in an effort to help the village[5][6], and his claim was very random and unwarranted. He simply decided to throw in that he was a vanillager. This seems suspicious because no one asked him for a claim, and he claimed a simple, unprovable role anyway. Because of the unhelpful nature of his posts as well as the suspicious role claim, I will Vote Snaquaza.

In conclusion, Zyphirex has done several stupid things in the short time that he has been in this game, but his most recent claim suggests to me that he is indeed a vanilla villager with an item that he got no information about. To save Zyphirex from a lynch, I suggest that we lynch Snaquaza instead, due to his unhelpful nature and general scumminess. Should Snaquaza flip to be a villager, a lynch on Zyphirex may be warranted during the second day, assuming no further information is gathered.

References:
1: Post #163 Barty claims that his item may gain powers later
2: Post #722 Zyphirex admits to "bullshit"
3: Post #354 Blackhawk11 claims cxinlee is setting off a "scum radar"
4: Post #740 Votecount 1.14
5: Post #214 Snaquaza makes a summary of recent posts individually
6: Post #229 Snaquaza makes another summary of recent posts individually
 
I'm not sure if I really believe that Zyphirex was "bullshitting" yet again and made that claim up. I believe he claimed that odd role because it was basically vig-proof (vigges wouldn't risk killing him) and thought he could survive the day claiming a power role. Actually, can anyone confirm that a similar item exists (can't say anything about it and don't know what it does)? There may be more than one if Zyphirex is telling the truth.

@Paperblade Snaquaza claimed vanillager much earlier in the day for absolutely no reason before anyone was even voting for him, so obviously he had to continue claiming to be a vanillager for consistancy's sake!

Once again I believe this is a scum vs. scum lynch so I am ok with either player being lynched. So I don't force a tie or put someone at L-1, I'll just refrain from voting.
 
If there is no majority by deadline is it a no lynch? You guys had better pick a lynch quick

If there is a tie(scum would try to do this) then if there is a no lynch then that would be very lame

and nothing much now to talk about I guess, Blackhawk's "essay" was basically the same thing that I reiterated in-thread quite a few times(especially the part where if snaq flips town zyphirex is likely scum)


this will be my last post before night(literally for me I guess) so if anybody wants to ask me questions before then(that happen to be very important or something) fire away
 
" In the case of a tie, no one will be lynched." - Rules

I suppose I have the final vote since I will be active at deadline and am not lynching anyone currently -- but I know that Snaq hates posting long posts so he may not put forward any defense due to the new word-count thing. Honestly I don't either so if I am still alive after tonight I will sub -- just a heads up.

(no infractions please I don't have time to write 300 words ;~;)
 
the 300 words thing is bullshit a joke. all I think is that zyphirex posted more bullshit and stupid images so crux got pissed off and posted a warning I would too

anyway I dont see why this forum has pc++(isnt it no pc++ in the forum? nvm)


on-topic: you guys better choose carefully, scum will most likely try to tie so that they can live another day. make sure to make a distinct decision before dead line. if there is a no lynch on the scum I we are going to kill someone
 
Zyphirex is telling the truth regarding holding items. I can confirm that I definitely DON'T have an item whose effect remains a mystery and cannot be passed or stolen, and I definitely have NOT been told that I can't tell other people the name of it. Even if I did, I wouldn't be sure whether or not I would be allowed to even mention its existence, because it could be conceivable that I would keep forgetting to ask Eagle about it, but even so, I DON'T have an item like this anyways. And I'm not the spy.

This truth alone doesn't make me want to switch lynch targets, but it helps abit, and he's been seeming a bit more town to me lately. I still wouldn't oppose a Snaquaza lynch (I'm fine with Snaq or Zyph, but I'm beginning to favor a lynch on the former).
 
Crux said:
If your post is fewer than 300 words or consists of only a single image, you will be warned unless it is a substantial contribution by itself. This is ridiculously pc++ and you're all posting like shit anyway.
Click to expand...
It's a joke that's funny because this is a shit post with less than 300 words.

@Spiffy When I was considering the possible power of the item, I didn't consider the possibility of a vigilante. I thought that such a role would lead to too many kills per night by logic similar to the logic in my last post. If I was allowed to share the name of my item, my logic in guessing would be pretty obvious. I am still convinced that the items does some sort of blocking. It might also have a use that will be revealed later in the game (if I survive). I would be interested to see if it does.

Also, I still think that @Aura Guardian should claim, given that so much of his recent statements/logic have revolved around his vague power role claim. Maybe not Day 1, but definitely Day 2.

Less than 2 hours away from the deadline, now it is time to wait and see if there are any strange last minute vote flips.
 
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